Russia - China y2k attack?

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Would some one please tell me, what purpose would be served by russia or china attacking us around the y2k rollover? I have a brain block on this one.

-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), April 21, 1999

Answers

By "us", I assume you mean the USA. China, IMHO, would probably not attack unless a) they decided to retake Taiwan (which is definately expected soon) and b) the USA got in the way.

As far as Russia goes, the "cold-war" is not over. It is only the USSR that is gone. NATO is dis-membering the USSR, by admitting former eastern-block nations. Many of the former eastern-block nations were only part of the USSR as a Russian "buffer-zone". Russia is very mad that:



-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), April 21, 1999.
Well, what if they need food. And we're the largest producer of food on the planet -- even with Y2K problems. I've said this before, though maybe I'm just paranoid. Why do people easily accept that their next door neighbor might shoot them if they're hungry and need food, but have a hard time imagining that China for example might attack us, or 'hold us hostage by' that threat? For now, no big worry... after Y2K, we're more crippled than we are now, and they know that -- and they know we have NO ballistic missile defense system anyway.

PJ in TX

-- PJ Gaenir (fire@firedocs.com), April 21, 1999.

Food is no good to anybody, if it glows in the dark! Also I am not talking about a provoked attack. I'm talking about: Ok Borris, put Vodka bottle down, today look like good day to bomb U.S. Time running out. Must use weapons now!

-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), April 21, 1999.
Ah, Scotty-- please accompany Mr. Lunev to the transporter room.

:)

Seriously, that is one way Russia could settle accounts with the IMF...

-- Captain Kirk (mcdixon@konnections.com), April 21, 1999.

Scotty,

You have a naive view of modern nuclear war tactics. The majority of modern nuclear weapons are 1) low yield but pin-point accurate, 2) are designed to minimize their "dirty" effects, and 3) burrow underground before exploding, further minimizing their fallout effects. We could experience a full-scale nuclear war and 90% of Americans would read about it in the newspaper the next day. However, 90% of our key military assets would be destroyed.

The idea of the Soviets has never been to turn this highly productive nation into a radioactive parking lot; that would indeed be stupid. The idea is to turn us into a highly productive nation of slaves with no remaining military option.

-- David Palm (djpalm64@yahoo.com), April 21, 1999.

My take..

I agree with the above reasons given in the responses, but would add a few more reasons.

Read Stanislav Lunev's book "Through the Eyes of the Enemy." It is Russian military doctrine that nuclear war is winnable. First the suitcase a-bombs secreted in the USA would be used to kill command, control, and communications. Clinton has foolishly changed "launch on warning" to "launch on explosions." He has foolishly removed tactical nukes from ships, and most of the B-52 air launched nuke tipped cruise missles have been taken apart. The Russians face the problem that their nuke missile force is aging, will they be able to upgrade it? In a few years the USA may have a right wing president and a nuclear superiority. Things are never static.

Come rollover, the Russians will lose their early warning systems. They have only 3 functional early warning satellites. They face the real prospect of "use them or lose them" with respect to their strategic nuclear forces.

In addition, the Russians have built several enormous underground cities, one as large as Washington DC (Jane's in UK reports this!)

But expect along with the suitcase bombs, massive stratospheric blasts to generate a huge EMP, so most Americans would know immediately the ballon was up by 1) seeing strong flashes of light, 2) radios and TV's going silent. I was in CA during the Loma Prieta earthquake in '89. After I realised what was happening, I then turned on my car radio. Guess what: total silence on both AM and FM bands. The spookiest feeling I've ever had.

I think it is inevitable that the last week in the year we will be either hit with a first strike or be subjected to nuclear blackmail.

got fallout meters? Cresson Kearney's book "Nuclear War Survival Skills" is a MUST read.

-- Les Holladay (holladayl@aol.com), April 21, 1999.

A low-level monitor might be a good idea. If any of the foreign reactors seriously malfunction, some of the result willl spread around the world. These folks have a good product line--

Aware Electronics Corp.

"Makers of PC based and stand alone Geiger Counters, Radiation-Radon Monitors, as well as other monitors for use with PCs, plus easy to use software for those interested in the quantum side of nature."

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), April 21, 1999.

How hard is it to make a small farraday cage oneself? It might be nice to have a cheap morse-only high-band transceiver and wire antenna et al. stored in there... just in case.

PJ in TX

-- PJ Gaenir (fire@firedocs.com), April 21, 1999.

A. ) Revenge.

B.) Totally reduce our ability to stop them from taking over anything they want to take over, mideast oil for an example.

C.) Food.

All a reach, I admit, but you can see from the previous posts that it could be accomplished by taking out our communications and/or using certain types of bombs that would leave little or no "glow".

With the problems of y2k and being the soft rich nation that we are and never having had a war on our own land since the Civil War, I wonder how we would react? Ripe for takeover,I would guess.

Got ammo?

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), April 21, 1999.

The reason for a strike is simple. Communism and capitalism cannot co-exist over the long term. Capitalism produces more excess wealth and develops technology much faster than communism. Unless a communist nation is completely self contained reguarding natural rescources and financial systems the capitalist countries will siphon off what wealth it produces supplying these rescources and technology.

Y2K is about to level the infrastructure of China and Russia. They will be years repairing their systems, and in the case of China and Russia, both will lose all status as superpowers in the interim. By the time they recover most of the CIC countries will have defaulted to NATO, Taiwan will be armed to the teeth and nuclear capable, India and Pakistan will have become nuclear superpowers, and more than likely Iran will have developed a nuclear program. In the case of Russia, while we have so far contained the threat of their nukes falling into terrorist hands, this is going to prove impossible in the post Y2K chaos. However badly Y2K effects the United States we will clearly be in better shape than the communist bloc, and on recovery will have fielded a whole new generation of weapons which will be invulnerable to the old communist technology. So the choice is simple, either the Russians and Chinese choose to nuke us, and use their conventional superiority to take over the world, or communism dies and they come under the umbrella of NATO and the NWO. That is really all the choice there is in the long run.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 15, 1999.

Reposted from an earlier thread.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 21, 1999.

actually Nik - you missed the third option, which is that neither of the first two happen, and a general devolution of social systems into smaller units becomes essential.

Remember folks - there is NO objective verification of anything Lunev claims, and his claims stand in direct contradiction to the established facts concerning lack of maintenance of Russian systems...ask yourself who might find it desirable to get the US to focus on a phantom possiblity (like a nuclear attack) and then ask yourself what and where folks like Nik and Andy are NOT looking and why that might be important.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), April 21, 1999.

Well....I went to see and hear Mr. Lunev in person and all I have to say is that evidently he knows something....otherwise,why was and is the FBI giving him protection. They were there and they weren't playing around...Anyone that went to see him had to be searched by them as well as having all their belongings searched. No cameras ect. were allowed, if you had one it was confinscated by the FBI. Personally I believe that the man is telling the truth, otherwise there was no need for them to be there.

-- Mary (timmary0@airmail.net), April 21, 1999.
Hi Arlin. I wish you would be more specific about where Andy and I are not looking. What is this threat you percieve for which Russia and China are playing straw man? It can't be Y2K, we both calculate that event as being one of the key factors in a communist attack. It can't be the NWO for the same reason. Are you refering to the possible martial law-constitutional destruction of our political system and civil liberties? Or the collapse of our banking system and subsequent plunge into global depression?

I agree with you that balkanization of the world economy could be one result of Y2K, but that scenario assumes a long time frame for it to play out. Russia and China are operating on a much more immediate time frame. The use it or lose it scenario demands that they act before the first of the year, and logistical goals would demand they act several months before that.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 21, 1999.

Yes Arlin, I would like to hear your answer to Nik's question. I don't understand your point either.

Earlier today, I read the article on worldnetdaily about NATO's strategy to start a world war to conquer Russia. While I do believe that NATO is the military of the CFR I don't believe they have a strategy to start a war with Russia. Furthermore, this whole Kosovo event is playing right into the Soviet's hands. Their people now believe that NATO is preparing to attack Russia. NATO does not stand a chance over there. The following is an email response to me by J.R. Nyquist, who has substantial evidence in my opinion that Russia is in the final phase of its plan to attack the U.S. I'll try to post it below.

Why would they do it? Their goal has always been world domination. I would highly recommend Nyquist's book, "The Origins of the Fourth World War". He also has a newsletter for 20 a year. He makes a great case for an attack SOON. His latest article in VORTEX makes the case very well as well.

Bob: I'm afraid I don't agree with the article put out by WorldNetDaily. It partakes too much of Russian propaganda. Yes, the Russian's have been insulted, but the Communist propaganda about a capitalist conspiracy against Russian sovereignty is untrue. In fact, those in America who attack the CFR as the world's arch-villain are echoing Stalinist propaganda from the 1930s, and also Nazi propaganda from the same time period. In fact, substitute the word "Jews" for CFR and you can literally use the same tracts the Nazis used -- word for word. While the capitalists are not boyscouts out for the world's good, their goal is to increase international trade, profits, and the movement of money across borders. This is not evil. It is merely business. The fault with this lies in its propensity to internationalism, and its stupid reliance on arms control and disarmament agreements, as well as the technology transfers with which they hope to "corrupt" the Communist systems in Russia and China, opening the way for freedom and democracy (i.e., shopping malls and freeways). Sadly, it is Wall Street and Big Business that has been duped by the Communists, and not the other way around. Far from being part of a brilliant CFR strategy to destroy Russia, the NATO attack on Yugoslavia is a classic bungle. There is no victory possible for NATO here. If this crisis continues it will break NATO into fragments, leaving the US alone and isolated. In that aloneness the Russians and Chinese will be able to nuke us into rubble with impunity. This has been the plan made in Moscow for decades. It has been testified to by defectors from Anatoliy Golitsyn and Jan Sejna, to Stanislav Lunev. The military preparations of Russia and China in recent months shows their intention, and now they are merely exploiting an opportunity to mobilize their people and their military behind a war they are prepared to win. This future war will not be a minor conflict in the Balkans, but a war to smash America -- to destroy America once and forever. The CFR will be killed in such a war, and the New World Order will be Leninist -- not capitalist. To imagine that the New World Order is a serious threat is itself a mistake -- a misreading of the international game. The U.N. and the CFR don't have any nuclear missiles pointed at Los Angeles or New York (any more than "the Jews" are plotting the destruction of the world). The Bilderbergers are not the one's who've penetrated the CIA with moles like Ames and Nicholson. All the missiles pointed at us are sitting in Russia and China, controled by Communists like Primakov and Sergeyev. All the thefts of military secrets have been accomplished by Russia and China. If the button is pushed, it won't be Nelson Rockefeller doing the honors -- it will be General Yakovlev, secreted in a command bunker 1200 feet beneath some mountain in the Urals. Let's not take our eyes off the real threat -- and a very real enemy. It's time to stop fantasizing and work with facts.

J.



-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), April 21, 1999.

China Premier Rebukes Protesters- Warns Of Force To Reclaim Taiwan

www.insidechina.com 4-21-99

VANCOUVER (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji ended his North American visit on a blunt note on Tuesday, rebuking pro-Taiwan independence protesters and warning China has never ruled out force to regain its breakaway province.

Zhu complained the estimated 300 demonstrators outside a Vancouver luncheon, many of them from the city's large Chinese community, have forgotten China's history by saying Taiwan was not part of China.

"I think these people have really betrayed or forgotten their ancestors," Zhu said, through a translator, at the event honoring Vancouver's Chinese business community.

"We have all along been saying that we will do our best to achieve a peaceful reunification, but we have not undertaken to renounce the use of force, and I think the aim of that is to achieve a peaceful reunification," Zhu said.

It was Zhu's last public stop before he returned to China after a barnstorming-style trip across Canada and the United States to promote trade and China's inclusion in the World Trade Organization.

The premier has been increasingly outspoken about the protests that have dogged him on issues ranging from human rights to Taiwan and Tibet throughout his two-week visit to North America.

Zhu surprised an audience in Victoria, British Columbia, on Monday evening with a pointed complaint that pro-Tibetan independence protesters outside that event were "Canadian white people" who might not know where Tibet is.

In a reference to complaints about China's human rights policies, Zhu reminded Tuesday's audience Canada did not end discriminatory laws against Chinese until 1947 or formally guarantee them equal civil rights until 1967.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 21, 1999.

Major US Military Decline Straining Capabilities

Source: Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow National Center for Policy Analysis

From David M. Sander, PhD 4-21-99

Defense officials are scrambling to pull together the resource needed to sustain our operations in Yugoslavia. Unfortunately, they are bumping up against severe limits resulting from the drastic deterioration of U.S. military capability during the Clinton Administration. In just fiscal year 1998 alone the Defense Department lost the following assets:

o Aircraft. The number of combat aircraft fell 434 or 4.8 percent. Sixty-two airlift planes were also retired, and 857 other aircraft. In total, 1,353 planes were taken from service, reducing the number of aircraft available by 6.6 percent.

o Ships. More than 10 percent of all submarines were decommissioned, reducing the total to 123 from 137 the year before. Ten support ships were lost and 684 small boats. Overall, U.S. ship strength was reduced 16 percent.

o Combat vehicles. The number of tanks were reduced 827 or 7.6 percent. Other combat vehicles fell 6,360 or 14.5 percent. Overall, available combat vehicles declined by 13.1 percent.

Adjusted for inflation, defense spending has fallen every year of the Clinton Administration thus far, from $298.4 billion in 1992 to $236.6 billion last year (in 1992 dollars). Many items needed to sustain combat operations are in short supply.

The Pentagon has already asked for an additional $4 billion this year to pay for the Yugoslavia operation. But any escalation will increase this cost quickly. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the air campaign at current levels costs $1 billion per month to sustain. If ground troops are introduced, it will cost $300 million month per division to keep them supplied. Even with a negotiated settlement, a force of 4,000 peacekeeping troops, consistent with the Rambouillet agreement, would cost $50 million per month.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 21, 1999.

Report Finds China Stole Data On Top American Nuclear Warhead

www.insidechina.com 4-21-99

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A comprehensive new analysis by U.S. intelligence officials has concluded that China stole design information about the United States' most advanced nuclear warhead from a government nuclear weapons lab, the New York Times reported on Wednesday.

The intelligence report is expected to be presented to the Clinton administration and Congress on Wednesday, the newspaper said, quoting unnamed government officials.

The White House, citing other intelligence sources, has previously said evidence of Chinese atomic espionage is less conclusive, the Times said.

The new report looks at a key finding of a select congressional committee that has probed allegations of illegal transfers of high technology to China, the Times said. It also includes a broad examination of the development of China's nuclear weapons capabilities over the last few decades.

The committee, chaired by California Republican Representative Christopher Cox, embraced findings of Energy Department analysts who concluded that China stole design data for the W-88 nuclear warhead from the Los Alamos nuclear laboratory in the 1980s and the theft was critical to Beijing's development of a modern miniaturized nuclear warhead.

The new intelligence analysis determined that China did benefit from espionage through the theft of W-88 warhead design data from Los Alamos, the Times said. But it also found China had procured sensitive nuclear data from non-secret sources, including academic exchanges and unintentional leaks by scientists, the newspaper said.

The newspaper said it could not determine details of the intelligence community's damage assessment before Wednesday's scheduled release. Much of the study will remain classified and officials would not say whether the report addresses evidence that China has stolen other U.S. nuclear designs more recently, the Times said.

Although Energy Department officials have raised concerns about evidence of Chinese espionage at Los Alamos since 1996, a 1997 CIA report was used by the White House to downplay Energy officials' conclusions, the Times said. U.S. President Bill Clinton also said as recently as last month that it was not yet certain that Chinese espionage had occurred.

The release of the new study comes at a time of anger over the administration's early responses to reports of Chinese atomic espionage. Evidence of Chinese nuclear spying has prompted a series of probes in both Congress and the executive branch.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 21, 1999.

Russia Defaults On $1.3 Billion Debt - Massive $11 Billion Default Looms

4-20-99

LONDON (Reuters) - Russia faces the possibility of a massive default on an $11 billion program of dollar-denominated debt mid-May because it cannot repay maturing Ministry of Finance bonds, a senior official said Tuesday.

Russia will not repay some $1.3 billion in principal on the third tranche of MinFins, which are due May 14. The fate of some $300 million of coupon payments is unclear. MinFins were issued to companies and individuals, both Russian and non-Russian, whose hard currency accounts were frozen in 1991.

"Unfortunately it won't be possible for Russia to pay the MinFin bond," chief negotiator and First Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov told reporters. "The question is whether creditors want in some way to lessen the consequences of nonpayment of MinFin three."

The problem could increase immensely, since nonpayment of one obligation allows creditors of others to demand immediate repayment -- so-called cross-default.

"All investors know that everything is interconnected," Kasyanov said. Asked if the nonpayment could mean cross-default, he said "yes," though he said a ministry statement this week would give Russia's official legal opinion.

Refusal to pay bit of a shock

The investment community has not expected outright nonpayment, and Kasyanov did not give details except to say that Russia hoped to work with investors to limit the problem.

"We are trying to find the way, the understanding with creditors how to address this problem," he said. "We would follow the course of bringing positions closer together, in order not to increase the problem."

MinFin cross-default would breach a ring fence Russia has struggled to establish between debt taken on by the Russian Federation since 1992 and $140 billion of Soviet debt, which Russia has indicated it may restructure.

Kasyanov has said MinFin tranches six and seven are Russian debt and coupons for them would be paid on schedule on May 14, but cross- default would undermine Russia's intention.

Investors at the annual meeting of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, where Kasyanov was speaking, had asked him to explain why the government was sure it would be able to service Eurobond debt.

Kasyanov repeated Russia's position that it would pay the debt.

Russia owes $17.5 billion on international debt this year against less than $20 billion in projected federal revenues.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 21, 1999.

Hi Nik, Hi J,

oh okay, I'd have thought you'd have seen it by now, but then it's happening where there are almost no western reporters, so reports on the ground are kinda sparse.

What's happening is a move by islamic fundamentalists to neutralize both the Russians and Chinese. They are doing this in a number of ways, including consolidation of the governments of the newly independent asian parts of the C.I.S. under islamic governments, pouring money and weapons into the islamic insurgent units fighting for their independence in Northern China, and at the same time making sure that neither the Russians nor the Chinese can ask the U.S. for help. They're doing this last through a number of different venues including by having the Iraqis provide technical intelligence to the Serbians, and by insuring that the Russians and the Chinese become increasingly paranoid about each other - in case you didn't notice the Chinese 'postponed' their scheduled border negotiations with the Russians this month...and on and on.

While Lunev's information does NOT match what we know about the Russians; the reactions it's designed to engender *do* fit perfectly with the ongoing agenda of the islamic fundamentalists.

I would look for the formation of an Islamic alliance which would include both the asian portions of the CIS and a 'government in exile' or some such of the islamic elements currently fighting in China. If you draw a line that goes from the insurrection locations in China up through the islamic asian republics what you'll find is that you have a two edged sword which effectivly threatens both China and Russia and which would have the capacity to provide major resources and troops to any Islamic leader who might wish to further expand his control of the region. Since they could, with a little effort, extend down through the Islamic parts of S.E. Asia, and thus also control the heroin trade, they could then proceed to finance just about anything they wanted to.

Take a look and see for yourself.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), April 21, 1999.

Russia Calls For Lifting Of Iraq Embargo

BAGHDAD, Apr. 21, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) Russia's ambassador to Baghdad Nikolai Karuzov called for a lifting of the crippling UN economic sanctions on Iraq Tuesday, saying they "seriously undermine" Iraqi-Russian interests.

"The continuing sanctions seriously undermine Iraqi and Russian interests, as well as those of several neighboring countries," the ambassador said in an interview with Iraqi television.

He also restated Russia's strong opposition to the no-fly zones over the north and south of Iraq, enforced by U.S. and British warplanes but not directly covered by a UN resolution.

"Our position is clear: we do not believe these zones have any legitimacy or (UN) resolution," the ambassador said.

The zones have been the scene of regular skirmishes between allied planes and Iraqi jets and air defenses since the US-British December air war, dubbed Operation Desert Fox.

The ambassador's comments came as Russia proposed a new plan for ties between the United Nations and Iraq, calling for the lifting of non- military sanctions with a "reinforced" program of arms control and verification.

But US ambassador to the UN Peter Burleigh told journalists: "I don't think it is a serious proposal, we're not going to treat it as such." ( (c) 1999 Agence France

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@aol.com), April 21, 1999.

Arlin, that is a valid threat for the future, but I still think the more immediate concern is from the communist. If we make it past new years without being nukes I will consider the communist threat pretty much dead and turn my attention to other problems. One of those is the fact that Russia will totally lose control of its nuclear warhead inventory in its post Y2K disentigration. I would imagine many Islamic terrorist groups are salivating at the prospect right now. I would also imagine the Serbs are too. Rouge generals are going to be selling those warheads to the highest bidders on the black market, and the bulk of them will be targeted at us. The future's so bright I gotta wear shades...

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 22, 1999.
er, Nik, given that the net is still up next January, I just may remind you that you wrote that...in the meanwhile, I seriously doubt we'll be the folks who get nuked...watch either India-Pakistan or India-China as likely options...especially India - China as both of them tend to see themselves as being large enough that they could absorb a major hit and still keep fighting.

the question is what happens in the west if one or both of those two exchanges take place. Russia would undoubtedly be tempted to launch at China, given that they'd already been hit by India, and Pakistan would be tempted to launch at India....basicly they could turn the majority of south west and south central asia into a mess in short order...

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), April 22, 1999.

PJ:

Garden variety home faraday cage:

medium sized garbage can (galvanized) into which you put the stuff yoiu want to protect.

solder the lid on, or install ground straps all around (4-6 or so) connecting the lid to the can.

Wrap in a layer or two of butcher or craft paper.

Drop into a larger can, also galvanized. I don't remember if you need a high value capacitor between the two cans or not.

Seal the top of the outer can like you did the inner can.

Should cover you for EMP, so long as the cans are sealed at the time of blast.

AS usual, no warrantee expressed or implied, YMMV, etc.

Chuck

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), April 22, 1999.

Thanks Chuck. Would any metal can work, or does it have to be galvanized steel?

PJ in TX

-- PJ Gaenir (fire@firedocs.com), April 22, 1999.

PJ, Chuck,

Also see How to Make a Fallout Meter

-- De (dealton@concentric.net), April 22, 1999.

Arlin, given the choice between living or dying in a thermonuclear hell and taking an I-told-you-so from you, I'll take the latter gladly anyday:^). Really I think the most likely first use of a nuclear weapon will be by the North Koreans, and where that will lead is anybody's guess. I don't know how this nuclear genie can be stuffed back into its bottle, but the prospects of at least limited nuclear exchanges grow every year. Given that terrorist nuclear attacks are a near certainty in the future our gunboat diplomacy foreign policy really shows its true colors for the insanity it is. The last thirty years would have been far better spent developing the infrastructure of third world nations with solar, hydro, and wind powered electric generating plants, and the development of alternative energy automobiles. If the bakers would get the dollar signs out of their eyes and focus instead on building healthy stable economies in developing countries all these animosities could be avoided. Maybe next time around we will get it right.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 22, 1999.
I agree totally with Nik's statement concerning y2k and Russia/China infrastructure. It is true that Islam/communist hostility is growing and would erupt into a war without y2k. But the more immediate concern for Russia/China is their infrastructure being compromised by y2k. Sorry Arlin, your political science is good but your timing is off.

Y2k has cornered the red beast. Right now, y2k induced power outages and water shortages do not seem that bad to me. It almost becomes the bump in the road compared to what '10' actually could be. I truly hope I'm wrong. No one has refuted Nyquist as far as I can tell.

b. Isaiah 8:11-18

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), April 22, 1999.

Nikoli, you wrote "If we make it past new years without being nukes I will consider the communist threat pretty much dead and turn my attention to other problems."

Why do you discount the alternative Russian threat potential, the mid- term one outlined by Joel Skousen that doesn't see "launch-on-y2k", but sees a mid-term "launch-by-2004" scenario ? He contends that the apparent economic prostration is feigned by channeling all resources into preps for this mid-term timed attack.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), April 22, 1999.

Hi Blue. Skousens theory doesn't take the long term effects of Y2K on Russia into account. Their economy is already in terrible condition and their government is fragmented between reform and reversion to communism. NATO has temporarily given a target to their frusttrations, but unless the Russians can channel that energy into a concerted war movement directed at an outside opponent the chaos caused by Y2K is going to shred what semblance of government they have left, and they will implode into civil war and anarchy. I don't see this happening to the Chinese, I think they will come through Y2K in pretty good shape politically, and will continue to gain strength for a while into the next century. Their chief problem is the proliferation of nuclear weapons by their neighbors, which is going to constrain them to their own borders in pretty short order. In the event that the Russian do somehow keep it together post Y2K, we will probably have at least the basic ABM system, and laser systems against warheads deployed and operational before 2004. The congress has finally realized that we are not immune to nuclear attack and are reacting to the threat, albeit quite a bit late in the game. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think the overall threat ends with the demise of Russia and the containment of China. There's the Islamic movement that Arlin is talking about, North Korea, and assorted and sundry terrorist groups who will all have to be dealt with in the near future. I think it is ineviteable that at some point in the future Washington D.C. and or New York City will sprout large Mushroom clouds. It's just a question of who gets the honor of doing the deed.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 22, 1999.
Just a small addendum that I thought was interesting. I am listening to An archived program from Jeff Rense, sightings on the radio from earlier this week. According to him a high ranking official from the Vatican has verified that the Third Secret of Fatima is that a nuclear third world war will erupt before the turn of the millenium, and the living will envy the dead. If I remember correctly the first two predictions of Fatima concerned WW-II and the assasination of Kennedy. Both of them came true. According to the Fatima predictions our fate can only be changed if mankind renounces its violent ways and the Russian antion is consecrated into the church.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 23, 1999.
Nik -

unless the NKs deliver it in a truck I'd say there's a pretty fair chance that nuke would turn part of the China sea in to radioactive sushi.

BTW: I agree with your analysis of why Joel S. is wrong about an attack following y2k. He also needs to re-look at the islamic developments in Asia...

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), April 23, 1999.

PJ,

It has to be a good conductor of electricity. Unless you find a copper can, galvanized steel is the most practical choice.

-- No Spam Please (No_Spam_Please@anon_ymous.com), April 23, 1999.

Here's some cheery news I just ran across..

Russia's nuclear forces will be kept on the "highest level" of combat readiness because of the Nato air strikes, Russian Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev warned yesterday. He said this meant a change in the Kremlin's military doctrine but did not elaborate. A top Moscow military official, Valery Manilov, said Russia may begin supplying weapons to Yugoslavia if Nato sends ground troops into combat. President Boris Yeltsin's special envoy to Yugoslavia, ex-premier Viktor Chernomyrdin, spent more than five hours in talks with Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade yesterday. End snip... Nothing like bumping the old defcon level up to absolute hair trigger during Y2K meltdown and solar cycle max to weed out the wimps huh?

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 25, 1999.

And what was clinton's response to the news that Russia was going to full alert on their Nuclear weapons? I swear this is a legit story, what a moron.

President, nuclear launch codes separated briefly

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WASHINGTON (AP) - President Clinton departed the NATO summit in such haste Saturday that he left behind perhaps the most important piece of luggage in the world - the ``nuclear football.'' The president's military aide, who constantly shadows Clinton and carries the briefcase containing U.S. nuclear launch codes, was mistakenly left at the International Trade Center when Clinton's motorcade sped off 45 minutes early and without notice.

The aide walked the 4 1/2 blocks back to the White House without incident. ``We're safe,'' said White House press secretary Joe Lockhart. He said Clinton left so quickly because his last summit meeting of the day broke up early and ``rather than wait for everyone to gather, he just took off.''

The pool of reporters that always travels with Clinton also was left behind.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 25, 1999.

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. This son-of-a-bitch is TRYING to get us nuked. This NATO summit has no doubt the highest visibility for terrorist of any event in the recent past or future. Soviet and Serbian operatives are no doubt watching this like hawks. One cell phone call from an observent agent and the United States would have ceased to exist yesterday. the man is laughing in the face of Soviet and Chinese explicit nuclear threats. These Russians have nothing but pride left to lose, and they are a proud people. If someone doesn't get this jerk out of office soon there will be no New president in 2000. There will be no United States in 2000.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 25, 1999.
Looks like the Russian-Nato confrontation is about to heat up.

Russia to ignore Nato embargo Russia looks set on a collision course with Nato after saying it will ignore calls by the alliance for an oil embargo against Yugoslavia. The alliance is drawing up plans to "visit and search" ships to try to prevent oil, arms and other vital supplies reaching the Serbian armed forces via ports in Montenegro.

US President Bill Clinton defended the sea searches, saying it was unreasonable to ask pilots to risk their lives attacking oil depots when Serbia could get fuel from ships.

But Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said that his country would ignore Nato's calls to prevent oil getting through and would continue supplying President Slobodan Milosevic's government with fuel.

"We cannot do anything to worsen the suffering of the people in Yugoslavia, and we will continue delivering oil in keeping with our international commitments," Mr Ivanov said.

Russian special envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin, who returned from Belgrade with a fresh peace offer on Thursday, backed up Mr Ivanov.

"The blockade (idea) is bad. The strikes are bad. When people die, it's bad."

BBC Moscow Correspondent Robert Parsons says if the alliance decides to impose a sea blockade, it will have to decide whether to board Russian ships - risking sucking Russia into the conflict.

'Visit and search'

However Nato reiterated its resolve on Saturday to "switch off the oil tap completely" to Yugoslavia.

Nato spokesman Jamie Shea said: "Without oil, the Yugoslav military machine will come to a halt and very quickly."

Speaking at the alliance's 50th anniversary summit in Washington, Mr Shea confirmed that Nato leaders had agreed in principle to explore a possible search system to intercept oil supplies.

Supreme Allied Commander General Wesley Clark had been asked to draw up details of how such a regime would work, its rules of engagement and how many warships would be needed to police it.

Serb armed forces were now so desperate for fuel that they were siphoning off petrol from abandoned refugee cars, Mr Shea said. It was important to "switch off the oil tap completely", he added.

He also said General Clark would be given extra assets. The Nato commander had asked for extra aircraft to allow an intensive 24-hour war to continue, in particular tanker planes and reconnaissance aircraft.

The eight-vessel Nato fleet in the Adriatic may have to be stepped up to enforce an oil embargo, he said.

Nato under fire

Nato's plans to prevent fuel getting through have also been attacked by the Yugoslav Government.

Deputy Prime Minister Vuk Draskovic said the action would hit civilians.

"Nato is punishing those who are innocent. It means punishing poor Serbian civilians and forcing them to drive no car ... End Snip

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), April 25, 1999.

Related to the Russian-Nato confrontation--

GUAM Becomes GUUAM, With Russia Seeing an Expanded NATO Threat

While NATO and Russia are attempting to find common ground over Yugoslavia, a new confrontation in brewing to Russia's south. The regional grouping of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldavia, -- known as GUAM -- on Saturday added Uzbekistan as a member.

Even as NATO scrambles to reassure Moscow that Russia plays a vital role in settling the Kosovo crisis, the GUUAM crisis are presenting Russia with increasing NATO pressure from its own borders. As relations between Russia and NATO deteriorate, Russia will turn on the GUUAM countries, who in turn will increasingly appeal to NATO for support. But NATO is fracturing under its current commitments, and will have difficulty reaching a consensus on commitments to Eastern European aspirants. It is questionable whether, as an organization, it can extend meaningful support to CIS member states.

This cannot be a positive development, in view of Russia's traditional paranoia about threats on its borders. It reminds me of the situation prior to the beginning of World War I, where European countries formed up into alliances and an incident in the Balkans set the whole area ablaze.

Of course, the difference now is that we have ICBMs, thermonuclear warheads, and biological weapons...

-- Max Dixon (mcdixon@konnections.com), April 27, 1999.

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