How Y2K Unfolded: Part One (The BigDogReport)greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
(Dateline 2047): Papers recently discovered in a cache long-hidden on the farm of the man known to Yourdonites as "BigDog" and to his family as "Hey, You" now reveal what actually happened during those fateful few years at the turn of the Millenium. Excerpts from the first of BigDog's "Y2K Reports" follow:
Report One: September thru December, 1999
... By September, 1999, the hitherto subterranean shifting of supply chain partners by large Y2K-ready corporations began to intersect calls from governments around the world for their citizens to start preparing for Y2K. While capital continued, relatively, to flow towards the U.S., markets around the world began to crumble (many down 30-70% between then and the end of the year).
... October and November, 1999 saw the U.S. market begin to sag, not crashing, but leaking value. The Fed lowered rates aggressively and stabilized the Dow at 20% off its high for the year. The utility industry in the States promised that power would remain up in most places most of the time. This was not reassuring. Similar reports began coming in from other industries: promises of sustainability but at some unknown percentage of function below normal. Spot panic buying began to talk place.
In mid-November, Greenspan testified before Congress about the stability of the banks and urged calm. He said, "We have every expectation that the actual effects of Y2K will be moderate. It is vital that American citizens act with an eye on the future and avoid panic." Another small interest rate drop took place, with some minimal positive effect. A steady, but quiet cash out from the nation's banks began increasing weekly. .... By December 10, 1999, the Fed had exhausted its supply of cash. With two weeks to go before Christmas, Clinton addressed the nation and called a "temporary" bank holiday on cash withdrawals. A tremendous tug-of-war, which had begun in September, was now intensifying over the question as to whether Y2K was-is the problem or whether panic was-is the problem. Wall-to-wall TV coverage was largely calling this a "panic" problem and urging citizens to keep their money in the markets "for the good of the country." .... By December 21, 1999, panic buying at supermarkets in anticipation of Y2K uncertainty, coupled with the cash shortage and banking uncertainties, was clobbering the Christmas season. Economists were now predicting a 2000 "panic" recession of short duration, predicting that huge amounts of cash would flow back into the banks by February 1, 2000. The market dropped like a rock based on December events, including international ones below (15%) and then stabilized again as the Fed moved aggressively to pump extraordinary liquidity into the system. Ed Yardeni predicted that the Fed had now played its final useful card and that everything would depend on the resolution of Y2K itself after the turn of the year. .... On the international scene, with NATO troops bogged down in the Balkans, tensions over Y2K within countries were worsened throughout the fall by the year-long reduction in trust and communication. An outcry from Congressional Republicans thwarted an Administration attempt to take U.S. nukes off alert in December. The CIA was receiving intelligence that China (Taiwan), N, Korea (S. Korea) and Iraq (Saudi Arabia) were considering possible attacks around the 1/1/2000 timeframe. Intelligence about potential terrorist attacks to be launched on U.S. soil were also being collected.
Consequently, on December 15, 1999, Clinton ordered all U.S. embassies, troops and weapons put on ready alert. In addition, the press began "leaking" administration plans for National Guard troops to be available for helping civilian authorities keep order in the 50 largest American cities. More to come .......
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 19, 1999
The BigDog report?
Catchy. I like it.
Prophetic -- no?
Actually things could heat-up much quicker with this Balkan bullshit.
I'm talking a million degrees hotter in a diameter of about 14 miles if what the reports about a Kosovo invasion in May prove-out, the Taiwaan invasion prove-out, the India/Pakistan race intensifies further or the N. Korean thing prove-out.
From a strategic point-of-view, we're sitting ducks RIGHT NOW...why wait for a draft call-up for reinforcements or the 6 billion Clinton asked congress for today to get implemented if you've got territory to conquer or revenge to serve warm?
But I know,....character doesn't matter.
It's all about sex.
But hey Big....it's all about a prophetic journal! I Like It!
(Do we get to hear about the 'heads on a fencepost' by late February's log?)
-- INVAR (email@example.com), April 19, 1999.
I think other factors in the world will precipitate events. How about this:
The Russians, realizing that their infrastructure was in far worse shape than had been previously let on, determined to send the first strike to Los Angeles and New York in September 1999. President Clinton hesitated in his decision to reciprocate or take any sound action. Americans, as the Russians calculated, panicked and spent the next two months essentially hurting themselves struggling to store up what was left on the grocery store shelves.
You write the rest.
-- Sniff Jones (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 19, 1999.
"A steady, but quiet cash out from the nation's banks began increasing weekly. ...."
That's the way it has been unfolding so far, but I'm not sure that it will continue in such a steady manner in the months preceding rollover. There exists a possibility of certain unnavoidable announcements which may trigger panic.
Consider the effect of an FAA finally having to admit that they can't get most of their systems in place in time, and will be flying by binoculars and pushpins (how long can they realistically wait before telling). Or an announcement by the IRS of a major glitch.
In other words, it may not just be uncertainties causing panic prior to rollover. And the panic may not gradually increase, but suddenly.
-- David Binder (email@example.com), April 19, 1999.
interesting projections...distinctly possible. will part two cover a bit more of the international scene in the same timeframe?
-- Arlin H. Adams (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 19, 1999.
interesting BigDog !
personally, I think you could move your time frame up a little. I think bank runs will be in full stride by September. IMHO
-- WebRNot (email@example.com), April 19, 1999.
Dateline 2047.1 Note from the finder of the BigDogReport
.... it is, of course, impossible to change the past. Y2K is now behind us about 40 years or so (that is, the worst effects). However, we will keep your comments and questions in mind as we cull over the material that was found in the cache as we prepare the next installment for cybernetic publication.
Thank you for your interest in your future and our past,
The Editor of the "BigDogReport"
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 19, 1999.
Very intriguing, BD...
But will the mob - buying at the supermarkets actually be as early as 12/21? I was disheartened by http://www .egroups.com/list/roleigh_for_web/316.html...
-- Grrr (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 20, 1999.