A Texas economist looks at Y2K

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M. Ray Perryman, PhD is a Texas economist who publishes a piece entitled "The Texas Economic Publishers." He also is Business Economist-in-Residence at the Edwin Cox School of Business at SMU. His latest report is an eight-page look at "An Assessment of Potential Y2K Effects on the Texas Economy." It's the first of two parts and is a pretty honest look at the problem. He addresses background, public reaction, phases of Y2K (preparation, disruption, adjustment), economic concerns, potential impact on selected industries, small business and conclusion.

I could not find the report online, but his web site has a Y2K piece which predicts the severity of Y2K problems across the state. His contention is that the poorer areas of the state--the Valley, El Paso, etc.--will suffer less than the affluent and high-tech areas, such as Austin and Dallas.

It's not a whitewash and it's interesting reading, if you're interested.

-- Ranger (OneRanger@OneRiot.net), April 19, 1999


I read it Ranger. I was compelled to write this e-mail to Dr. Perryman

Dr. Perryman,

I enjoyed reading your commentary on the Y2K impact for Texas Cities.

One question that I have is this: What is the starting point ?
For Example: If Laredo loses its continous electrical supply for 2 weeks.

What will the implications be ? $$$ ? Lives ?

Then... by comparison, What will the effects be on Tyler ?
$$$ ? Lives ?

Secondly, did your report take into account the potential for mass hysteria in large metropolitan areas if "just in time" supply lines fail (ie food) ? (Perhaps, the high tech personnel will be more concerned with feeding and protecting their families.)

It worries me that a person of your stature would brush off the potential
disasters of "Y2K-induced disruptions" with a statement like "the great
state of Texas will likely continue on its bluebonnet-strewn path of healthy growth."

People in this country are no longer accustomed to surviving without our many
luxuries. Electricity and computers being the central nervous system of our
comfortable lives.

If "Y2K-induced disruptions" turn out to be of extended duration, or life threatening
(ie hospital equipment disruptions) wouldn't it be beneficial for the people of Texas
to be prepared ?

If you were to provide an estimated starting point for the economical impact, perhaps
the numbers would at least help some people to realize that this may not be just a
3 day problem.

-- WebRNot (webrnot@ncap13k.com), April 19, 1999.

Here's what CPR (on the pollyanna boards) has to say about Perryman (and he's known him for a while)

Reuben on Perryman

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), April 19, 1999.

Lisa, Reuben is a empty know it all idiot. His soap-bubble will burst soon enugh. Him and Sherry are quite a pair. Usless, both.

-- (me) (they-are-useless1234@aol.mom), April 19, 1999.

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