The air traffic systems in Latin America are in worse shape than the U.S. if that is possible. At least they are not too proud to admit their failures - they are training the controllers how to guide planes by using the old paper charts.

http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9904/17/latam.y2k.ap/index.html

-- @ (@@@.@), April 17, 1999

Answers

So, what do you think the Mutual Funds with Latin American exposure will be doing soon? If these funds do not pull the money out of these countries with problems of this extent known in advance...well, can you say lawsuit. Did someone mention the possibility of a run on these banks? They do not have any money to handle this contingency. As for political instability etc. The one word which describes this best that I saw in the article is VOLCANO.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), April 17, 1999.

@,

After reading some recent statements from our own Jane Garvey at the FAA, it would seem that our fallback position will be the same as in Latin America. Wouldn't it be something if we have to start sending some of our controllers down there to rediscover how such primitive controlling is done again. Actually, I seriously think we *will* be reinventing the old see and be seen, radio links, no radar, control. This isn't such a bad way to do things if there isn't much traffic to deal with. Do you think there will be a lot of air traffic next year?

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), April 17, 1999.

Gordon,

I'll have to try to find the statistics, but yes, if we expect next year to be anywhere near normal, there will need to be a LOT of flights. Of course we may be able to get by without passenger flights, but what about cargo for international trade? It will be pretty funny though to see those guys scrambling around with maps trying to decide which planes to land first!

-- @ (@@@.@), April 17, 1999.

@,

I am having a problem envisioning a lot of flights next year. Let me explain. These jets consume a *lot* of fuel, and I mean a lot. Will that fuel be readily available? Also, if we get into a recession, I can tell you from personal experience that the first thing companies cut from the budget is air travel. They'll use the phone, email, faxes, and such. So there might not be a big demand for passenger travel. And then there's those nagging reports of noncompliant airports all over the world. So even if we have the fuel for some cargo flights, how many will that be? Maybe it will drop back to so few that a Latin America type control system will work just fine.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), April 18, 1999.

Gordon,

Absolutely right. We will probably being seeing a reduction in total flights of a minimum of 20-30%, don't ya think? Some of the huge airlines will not be able to maintain their overhead and will go belly up. I hope we will see a leveling of the playing field in many areas to give the smaller businesses a fighting chance.

-- @ (@@@.@), April 18, 1999.

This up on AP Breaking News:

[ For Educational Purposes Only ]

Simpler flight patterns planned to deal with Y2K

4/23/99 -- 10:12 AM

SINGAPORE (AP) - Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region will switch to simplified flight patterns on Dec. 31 to avoid problems with the Year 2000 computer bug, officials said Friday.

``For New Year's Eve there will be a plan that's going to simplify the traffic patterns,'' said David Behrens, an assistant director at the International Air Transport Association.

The plan aims to put the need for air traffic management ``at its absolute minimum,'' Behrens told reporters at a two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum Y2K conference in Singapore.

Air transport is one of the sectors most sensitive to the Y2K bug, an offshoot of old programming that doesn't distinguish between the years 1900 and 2000.

Airlines worldwide have invested about $2.3 billion in readying their systems and equipment for the millennium date changeover, Behrens said.

On New Year's Eve this year, the volume of traffic on Asia-Pacific airways would be reduced and flight routes would be ``de-conflicted'' under the simplified pattern, Behrens said.

``What that means is that airways don't cross or, if they do cross, they're vertically separated,'' he said. He added that aircraft departures would be carefully planned to put space between flights using the same route.

The simplification plan would begin taking effect in each of the Asia-Pacific's time zones one to two hours before midnight on Dec. 31.

The special flight procedures are to be activated at 10 p.m. in the international date line time zone, which includes New Zealand, Fiji, Samoa and parts of Russia.

Two hours later, the plan starts in places such as Australia and Papua New Guinea. China, the Koreas, Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and other East Asian countries are slated to begin two hours later.

Normal flight patterns would resume only after air traffic authorities were certain they could manage flights without Y2K-related problems, Behrens said.

He added that midnight on Dec. 31 Greenwich Mean Time - 12 hours later than the international date line - would be ``the most critical time event in the world of aviation.''

Midnight GMT is ``9 o'clock in the morning for Tokyo and 8 o'clock in the morning for Beijing and Singapore, 7 o'clock for Bangkok - times when the morning rush hour is departing airports,'' he said.

The plan is a joint effort by the International Air Transport Association, which represents most of the world's airlines, and the International Civil Aviation Organization, which represents state air transport authorities. Both groups are based in Montreal, Canada.

The Asia-Pacific region is the first to announce a Y2K simplified flight pattern, officials at the APEC conference said. The area involved includes eastern Russia, Pacific island states, Australia, New Zealand and continental Asia up to the Middle East.

Other regions are preparing air transport Y2K contingency plans tailored to their own conditions, Behrens and other air transport industry officials said.

APEC covers Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States.
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-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), April 23, 1999.