I have had a sort of voyeuristic (sp?) interest in chaos theory for some time. Then I downloaded an article about applying chaos theory to disaster preparedness.

http://www.library.ca.gov/CRB/96/05/over_2.html

Has anyone done a study about Y2k with applied chaos theory?

- R

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), April 16, 1999

Answers

I have a passing interest in such subjects. I'll check the link. Thanks. Be careful, though,...around here bringing up so-called science research esoterica is often met with scoffing and mispelled flames....check out previous attempts to discuss whole systems, and the replication of systems.

Aside,...one of my favorite things about chaos theory is the notion that when extrapolated forward chaos proves not to be random... :-)

Again, thanks for the link relating to disaster.

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), April 16, 1999.

The newer discipline of complexity theory is more applicable. Read "Complexity" by M. Mitchell Waldrop. All kinds of stuff on how complex adaptive systems evolve, to behavior of flocks, to economic markets. This is being applied to develop economic models for Citicorp.

The rules for flocks are interesting and can be applied to people's reaction to Y2K. Rules governing an artificial bird or "boid" cause flocking "Each boid followed three simple rules: 1. It tried to maintain a minimum distance from other objects in the environment, including other boids. 2. It tried to match velocity with boids in its neighborhood. 3. It tried to move toward the center of mass of boids in its neighborhood." Also read Detrich Dorner's "Logic of Failure" and Charles P. Kindleberger's "Manias, Panics and Crashes".

-- Noel Goyette (ngoyette@csc.com), April 16, 1999.

...I've researched Y2K for over 3 mos...talked with hundreds of people..."everything will be OK"..."they'll" get it fixed in time...without identifying who precisely "they" are..."it won't be as bad as people like you are saying..."...":it can't happen here...not in the US..."..."God will take care of everything..."...and on and on...an endless...almost universal attitude of apathy...corporations are now suggesting FOF...fix on failure...in other words..."we don't believe you, but if something bad happens, we'll fix it when it fails..."...unfortunately...the time to fix it has passed...the law of unintended consequences is alive & well...

-- Dwane L. Jewell (Dwane3466@aol.com), April 16, 1999.

I started this a month ago and never finished it. I thought I would share it. Y2K a common reference to the century rollover is not a management problem. It is a soon to be personal problem. There are to many indications that the Governments of the world consider it a disaster in the making. In the idea of scales, Y2K is poised to hit personally, in the community, regionally, state or provincially, the country, and of course disable countries that have done little to remediate. In the forward countries fixing the problem is paramount. Failure is not an option. For those folk their world view must have changed to fix the problem as one must initially have faith in the idea to even consider such a ridiculously simple problem could be so severe. The public in general though has faith in the systems that keep our infrastructures together. They for the most part know of nothing else. This is their world view. The Governments and Businesses involved dont wish to see panic happening so the scope of the problem is diminished by the leaders not to confront the issue. Clinton a bit and Cretien not at all. Weather this is right or wrong I do not know. But it is to me a consideration that, just like the Y2K remediator, their world view is going to change. If Y2K is half what it could be, then there will be panic, panic will incite chaos, which will produce change, which will lead to evolving our world view. Now the thing to consider is weather it would be better to change peoples world views before y2k or after. Of course how would you convey the idea of a new world view. If you look at chaos, turbulence is caused by a high energy system trying to reach a lower energy level due to restrictions in its enviorment. Now if the systems we have that are designed with a level of coreliability with the other systems in the web find that the information flow is restricted due to blocks (failures) and creates turbulence (chaos) then the symbiotic entity that is society reduces to a lower energy level or is vibrated apart. Now it is totally likely, at the state that society continues in as of today, is a high energy level, symbiotic entity that grows upon itself. It is not immune though to the dictates of natural order. Natural order dictates mountains become valleys, that the blade of grass bends yet the strong branch breaks in a wind, that day becomes night and everything is relative to the view you look. To support the society we live in we need plenty of energy and information. Its flow must be following a structure. Our structures are stiff compared to natures standards. The systems are designed only for growth and not receding. We dont know how to see society as something that will have to fall back to a lower energy level. This to me is a inability to anticipate time. *****Things evolve through time, things grow in space* **** To say to folks that time has a Timescape just as the earth has a landscape would be met by blank stares. Evolution is the Timescape. This is the prime universal directive. We in the society at present only know how to grow in space, it may be time to think of evolving through time.

-- Brian (imager@ampsc.com), April 16, 1999.

Sorry about the formatting but I guess copy and paste is not a good idea.

-- Brian (imager@ampsc.com), April 16, 1999.

Thanks Brian.

When cutting and pasting just put a double space if you want a paragraph - et voila!

I started this a month ago and never finished it. I thought I would share it.

Y2K a common reference to the century rollover is not a management problem. It is a soon to be personal problem. There are to many indications that the Governments of the world consider it a disaster in the making.

In the idea of scales, Y2K is poised to hit personally, in the community, regionally, state or provincially, the country, and of course disable countries that have done little to remediate. In the forward countries fixing the problem is paramount. Failure is not an option. For those folk their world view must have changed to fix the problem as one must initially have faith in the idea to even consider such a ridiculously simple problem could be so severe.

The public in general though has faith in the systems that keep our infrastructures together. They for the most part know of nothing else. This is their world view. The Governments and Businesses involved dont wish to see panic happening so the scope of the problem is diminished by the leaders not to confront the issue. Clinton a bit and Cretien not at all. Weather this is right or wrong I do not know. But it is to me a consideration that, just like the Y2K remediator, their world view is going to change. If Y2K is half what it could be, then there will be panic, panic will incite chaos, which will produce change, which will lead to evolving our world view.

Now the thing to consider is weather it would be better to change peoples world views before y2k or after. Of course how would you convey the idea of a new world view. If you look at chaos, turbulence is caused by a high energy system trying to reach a lower energy level due to restrictions in its enviorment. Now if the systems we have that are designed with a level of coreliability with the other systems in the web find that the information flow is restricted due to blocks (failures) and creates turbulence (chaos) then the symbiotic entity that is society reduces to a lower energy level or is vibrated apart. Now it is totally likely, at the state that society continues in as of today, is a high energy level, symbiotic entity that grows upon itself. It is not immune though to the dictates of natural order.

Natural order dictates mountains become valleys, that the blade of grass bends yet the strong branch breaks in a wind, that day becomes night and everything is relative to the view you look. To support the society we live in we need plenty of energy and information. Its flow must be following a structure. Our structures are stiff compared to natures standards. The systems are designed only for growth and not receding. We dont know how to see society as something that will have to fall back to a lower energy level. This to me is a inability to anticipate time. *****Things evolve through time, things grow in space* **** To say to folks that time has a Timescape just as the earth has a landscape would be met by blank stares. Evolution is the Timescape. This is the prime universal directive. We in the society at present only know how to grow in space, it may be time to think of evolving through time.

Course I've put the paras in the wrong place - but, hey, that's chaos theory...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 17, 1999.

Even more interesting is when Dissipative Structure Theory is factored into the y2k chaosity.

DST shows that a stable structure become unstable as a energy increases yet breaks into chaos at a discreet time. The sequence being stability, pre-chaotic structure (characterized by high amplitude & "freely available" energy), then chaos (characterized by high energy and no structure). Life and organization itself seems to abhor chaos and a new structure will emerge from the chaos, first into a post-chaos high amplitude dynamic structure, then into a stable structure of long duration (the structure dynamics and form being unpredictable from the older structure). Each new structure is shorter lived than the older.

In re y2k this concept become interesting when "what are we considering as 'energy'?" is considered. Normally overall population, population aggragates, information density, energy consumption, stock markets, money supply, goods distribution, etc. would be used in the "energy" part of the DS. The increase of these "energies" recreating the societies in which they are embedded by virtue of the societies reorganization to utilize said "energies" in a most efficient manner, not always consciously.

Now with y2k we are faced with high probabilities of the reduction of said "energies".

We are in transition from a long term stable structure, the matrix of which has been absorbing the higher "energies", (this has created amplitudinal stress which most societies have been able to absorb, for at least the short term), to a pre-chaotic "energy" level which is definitely straining the ability of the matrix to retain form, ie the form is beginning to break apart.

Under historical conditions DST has easily dealt with this increasing energy. But Y2K appears to be a discontinuity. Those very increasing "energies" are probably going to relatively abruptly recede to lower levels - across the board.

This is perhaps the "leveling process" Brian refers to.

However I'm wondering if perhaps "energy" sources currently relatively ignored by societies will come into play, creating now social matrices in which our current detritus exerts considerable formational pressure. These might include regional and national water projects no longer under total control. Nuclear processing and storage facilities could easily create conditions under which life downwind and down stream become dicey to deadly if our ability to monitor and control leaks and emerging problems delines. The biowarfare stockpiles, the chemical warfare stockpiles both represent a long term hazard if we are unable to manage these in an effective manner. Chemical plants, Petrochemical plants both represent societal dangers if we lose our ability to monitor and control their systems and storage. These represent areas which potentially have considerable "energy" in the form of negative human and life impact.

However post-Y2K "energy" sources have another side. Cessation of large scale, planetary logging is almost certain. Cessation of large scale, planetary soil depletion will cease, but only after current regional crop areas weed and begin the long process of reforestation - each part of the process having a different impact upon humanity and life in general. Cessation of airborne pollutants, at least to the present degree, and of type, is a fairly certain assumption, at least after whatever catastrophic mfgr failures release pollutants. Water pollution could increase, initially because of our inability to treat water, then due to large scale land erosion during the intrim between agricultural land use and eventual reforestation or grasslands forming praries. However, long term water pollution should decrease - but between now and then one could assume considerable damage to riverine and oceanic continental shelf ecosystems.

So there are a variety of "energy" sources other than those which are presently man made Life Support Systems, _all driving the matrix structure from stability, into present pre-chaotic stability, chaos, toward eventual reformation of matrix.

TEOTWAWKI is inevitable beyond a 3 day y2k blip, TEOTW is a distinct possibility for large numbers of humans and our associated life structures.

Those people working on electricty, better hope they have it at least usable over geographical scales. Without at least that, post-y2k gets weird to contemplate.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), April 17, 1999.