question for doomers,poly's, and trolls alikegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
A short tiem ago I made this question a subject of a short essay that I posted here and has since been copied/linked several other places.
The question still haunts me, and I would like to see some discussion on the topic. MINUS the stupidity and name calling if we may. Adults please.
"Are you prepared to be wrong?"
I think we are headed for serious problems and our family is preparing along those lines. In some ways we have changed our lives considerably. In our case, it's been for the better. If nothing bad ever happened related to Y2K we would be just fine and living better than we were two years ago when we first started getting ready.
What I humbly ask the forum participants to do is jot down a short note in this thread with a few lines about how bad (or NOT bad)they think Y2K will effect society, and some idea as well as to how ready you are to be wrong about that attitude.
What I want is for people to look at the contrasts in their own plans, and that of others. Look at the other side if you will.
What do you think will happen and (briefly)what basic plans have you made?
More to the point, what allowance have you made if you turn out to be wrong?
These questions are valid no matter what view point you hold. Could we please have some adult and polite discussion on the subject?
-- Art Welling (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 09, 1999
Didn't we already do something like this before? This is such a waste of time!
-- A Cynic (email@example.com), April 09, 1999.
With a mail Id of @lancnews I would like to know what this is to be used for. Sorry if this sounds skeptical but.
-- ???? (????@?.?), April 09, 1999.
My approach is to believe that there is a 100% of bad economic effects of y2k, and there is a 5-30% chance of infrastructure problems that would require preperations in advance. I have concentrated on making my finances y2k proof. Just now I am storing water/food.
If I am wrong, then the Dow will break 14,000 next year. I will lose some money. Big deal. I am an adult. I can live with that. I will also have lots of food for myself and my family to eat through. Some we will donate to food banks. The rest we will consume.
Some of the items we bought will be useful for camping trips/other applications. Other objects have no other use other than preparation. I consider that insurance.
The reality is that because of the heavy "only a bump in the road" spin running currently, any significant y2k effects between now and a year from now will result in applified effects in the financial marketplace. In effect, the White House is doubling the bet without me having to put up any more money. This is a very interesting situation.
This whole situation is very, very unstable. In mathematical terms, it is a political, financial, and social singularity. There is no way of finding out what happens on the other side.
-- David Holladay (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 09, 1999.
I think that as long as the power stays on, then all of the other problems will turn out to be manageable. The power industry has stated that there should be no major problems with the power. I must trust them because there is no other reliable source for this information. They are the only ones who can know.
I am preparing for emergencies per the Red Cross/FEMA guidelines. In fact, I always try to maintain that level of preparedness anyway.
If I am wrong it means that the best sources of information available on this subject are wrong.
I believe that concerns about Y2K are valid. However, I also believe that many of those concerns have been addressed.
-- Doomslayer (email@example.com), April 09, 1999.
If I'm wrong, I think my wife and I will take a break and dance in the street. Then we'll go back to our preparations, thankful that we've been given more time to do all the things we didn't get done before rollover.
Y2k may only serve as a wake-up call, having caused us to question the way we've been living. That's fine. There are other things to be prepared for, from extended unemployment to major earthquake. We're not there yet, but we're working on it. 8^) =DSA.
-- David "Got potassium iodide for your kids?" Angal (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 09, 1999.
I have chosen to prepare for a level of problem similar to that outlined by Jo Anne Craven and Ed Yourdon.
My finances are not in great shape, but with some help from my family we are going to buy a house in the country. Sort of a last resort shelter for family in the event of a severe depression or worse.
Now, I don't really *believe* that we are going to see a serious depression. I certainly hope not. My job is in a service industry that probably won't survive a really serious recession, let alone a depression. I'd hate to have to get a new job in that environment, although I've done it before (Houston oil crash, 1982).
However, I certainly don't think that it will be a "bump in the road", if only because of the international situation.
My best guess is 3 to 9 months of the economy grinding down and tearing itself apart. How badly? Depends on what is accomplished in the next 266 days. Really depends on whether the cautious optimism I've been hearing about re: the imbedded chip situation is correct.
If I'm wrong, and it's better, well, I've always wanted to live in the country. Have a few acres of land and a big garden.
If I'm wrong, and it's much worse, well, I did what I could afford to do without taking a chance of bankrupting my family. We'll dig in and do what we can. You pays your money and you takes your chances.
-- Jon Williamson (email@example.com), April 09, 1999.
Hello, I am guessing that a lot will be accomplished here in the U.S. but that there will still be at least a substantial (?) bump in the road. I settled on a 5-10% chance of TSHTF with power grid problems and food water shortages - this figure is arbitrary, I had to come to some figure for my sanity... I consider my preparations in this rural farming community within 50 miles of big city to be an insurance policy for possible hardships of many kinds. I am finding that it gives me great peace of mind to know that I can feed my family NO PROBLEM if unemployment, illness or ?? strikes. My 2 year old son will know where milk, eggs and produce come from - not just from the store and I am already relaxing into the steady day to day routine of simpler life. Yes, I still work full time as does my husband but this fear/concern has opened our eyes to what is really important. I will be extremely happy if only minor problems occur and plan to continue a more independent and less wasteful/ environmentally damaging lifestyle. As a society we have really lost touch with reality and many people are incredibly ignorant and uninterested in making any changes for the better. While prepping I am learning just how much it takes to produce our own food, and to realize that we are very vulnerable with our high tech and mega-farm production. Sorry to ramble on, yes I am prepared to be wrong. (smile). Kristi
-- Kristi (securx@Succeed.Net), April 09, 1999.
I usually place myself in the 5-7 (locally) range. That said, what's the opposite? Either extreme? If I'm wrong about there being at least recession, our retirement money will have lost a years growth, and we'll have food at 1998-99 prices in 2000-01. If I'm wrong about it not going to a 10, we will be doing a crash course on survival without technology. Light and heat won't be a problem for several months, but at a 10, I don't expect that what we'll have will be enough to last until society rebuilds. But then, I think that people who are expecting Infomagic's scenario delude themselves if they expect to rebuild in 10 years or even a lifetime. I personally believe that if we get to a 10, we'll have another Dark Ages. I don't think you can prepare for that. So, I'm prepared to be wrong if I'm too pessimistic, but only if I'm just slightly too optimistic. If I could prepare for worse, I would, even though I doubt it will be neccessary. [Us Canuckianians are well known to be some of the highest (over) insured people in the world :-)]
-- Tricia the Canuck (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 09, 1999.
Expectation: 5 to 10 year depression with terrible, chaotic 2000-2001, especially internationally.
If right? Sad, no sense of triumph but a lot of anger at people who thwarted others from preparing. If wrong? Ecstatic. Delighted to have people laugh at my expectations. Happy to be more self-sufficient and prepared for unexpected challenges of the future.
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 09, 1999.
I doubt too many of us have burned too many bridges. I feel that if I'm right about y2k, then I'll have purchased a few things I otherwise wouldn't have bought, and lost some interest dollars, and won't have to buy many groceries for quite a while.
But if I'm wrong, I'm ready, I think. My wife and I are racking our brains trying to think of what else we might need, and we pay close attention to everyone's ideas -- both for what's worth getting and what not to do (like WW's exploding PVC).
We feel that even if our preparations turn out to be partially (or even mostly) not required, the effort has changed our life for the better. For one thing, we *love* target shooting. My wife can now put 30 rounds into a 3" circle at 25 feet in 20 seconds. Damn, I'm jealous.
-- Flint (email@example.com), April 09, 1999.
I'm right there with BigDog, although I'm thinking (read praying) maybe a 3-5 year depression.
I'm ready, mentally, for a complete life change in every possible way. As far as preps, I see no need to prepare for longer than about 6 months. If things become very, very bad I am ready to move elsewhere, pool resources and live with family growing and hunting our own food and do what ever it takes to make it through this period.
Getting to this point in mental preps is, I believe, the most important adjustment necessary to survive. We need to learn to overcome and adapt just as our ancestors did.
-- Michael Taylor (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 09, 1999.
Art, I have 36 years of military and civilian Federal service, some of it as a Plans Officer with the Air Force's SR-71 Blackbird program. If I learned only one thing during those years, it was that Murphy's Law does exist; i.e., if something can go wrong, it will. So preparing for potential problems is easy for me; I don't have to make any difficult mental or emotional adjustments. I can readily accept that the y2k transition disruptions may range anywhere on the 1-10 scale. What do I think it might be? I haven't any idea, and it doesn't really matter to me; it's simply not worth arguing about.
We live in a sparsely-settled, economically-challenged, "mezzo giorno" type area in the woods of SW Oregon, where y2k receives very little media attention. Few people here have computers, nor do they have any understanding of how intimately computers affect their lives. Very few individuals are preparing; and with some notable exceptions, such as the mayor of Portland, none of the local authorities here are doing anything to get their jurisdictions and constituents ready for y2k. I recognize that this failure of local "leaders" to act does contain the potential for serious problems for me and those who depend on me, and my planning does take that into account.
How am I preparing? We have a good well and a septic system, so we are not vulnerable to any municipal water or sewage system problems. To power the water pump and the house, I've ordered a generator. Many people hereabouts have them as a matter of course. We heat the house with firewood. I'm planning to convert my electric water heater and stovetop to propane. These equipment purchases are expensive matters that I hadn't planned to do for a few years; but y2k is sufficient incentive for me to go into debt and do them now. These are not frivolous expenditures; they are beneficial to us, Y2K or no.
In addition to providing for electric power, I plan to put aside sufficient food and other household items to sustain us for 90 days or so; I may have to take in some DGI relatives, so this stuff won't be wasted, no matter what happens. I hope to get this done in the next 3-4 months, because I am concerned that - by that time - the DGIs may start to wake up and perhaps start an accelerating buying frenzy.
Finally, I plan to take what little money I have out of the bank, as I don't want to get tangled up in a "Chinese fire drill" of desperate depositors if/when the bank loses or corrupts their accounts. If that occurs, I believe that the burden of proof will be placed on the depositor to prove, to the bank's satisfaction, how much he/she had on deposit before the disruption; and that it will take months thereafter to get the bank to settle on the status of the account and give the depositor his/her access to that money. FDIC insurance won't be any help in that situation.
So, yes, I'm quite prepared to be wrong about y2k; it wouldn't bother me a bit to be wrong. But that doesn't mean I was wrong to prepare for potential problems. I won't have to make any allowances for being "wrong", as all of my preparations are steps I should have been taking in any case. Y2K just caused me to move the timetable ahead, that's all. To me, this is all pretty simple and basic, and nothing to get all emotional about, as do some of the posters on the forum. I enjoy the forum, have derived considerable benefit from some of the more-thoughtful contributors, and will continue following it. Their insights are quite helpful to me. Now...if I lived in the LA basin, this essay might have had quite a different perspective and emphasis....
-- Norm Harrold (email@example.com), April 09, 1999.
Doomslayer: you said
I am preparing for emergencies per the Red Cross/FEMA guidelines. In fact, I always try to maintain that level of preparedness anyway.
Gee..a whole three days, huh? My questtion is, when storing an amount of grub that sustantial, how can you be sure you actually have three days worth? For instance, how do you know you don't just have 2 3/4 days worth? My god man, what would happen if at 6PM on day 2...you..you ran out of pop-tarts and had to go to bed with no supper?
You need to thinnk these things through, guy.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 09, 1999.
We haven't had to do much more than we usually do to get ready for whatever. We already live on a farm, off-grid in a rural area. The place is paid for and we stay out of debt. We want to live like this anyway.
As for what may happen- IF the reports of power, etc being ok in the US are true, I think we could avoid rioting in the streets, etc, but overseas is another story. this would by the domino effect, impact the US. I would expect shortages, business closures, drastically reduced imports and a basic global depression. If the power, etc. doesn't stay on in the US? then all bets are off.
-- anita (email@example.com), April 09, 1999.
well, let's see, if we're wrong, then my bride to be and I will find ourselves as newly weds living in a lower cost of living area, which has fewer restrictive laws, lower taxes, and we wont have to go to the grocery store for anything other than fresh dairy products for quite a while.
..on the other hand if we're right, (and I'm roughly in the same category as Big Dog, only with the expectation of losing at least one major urban area in the snow belt...and who knows what overseas), then we'll have reason to be sad for all the friends who didn't make it.
-- Arlin H. Adams (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 09, 1999.
FLINT'S TAKE ON Y2k
-- Am I (email@example.com), April 10, 1999.
Still sounds most likely to me. I might be a tad more optimistic on my good days, but most days that description still sounds accurate.
-- Flint (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 10, 1999.
a, a, a
I was respecting Art's request about MINUS the stupidity.
You, however, blew it.
Typical hardcore doombrooder.
See ya later, I'm goin' to buy some pop-tarts.
-- Doomslayer (email@example.com), April 10, 1999.