Y2K VS Retail Experiencegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Having been in the electronic area of a NW store - I noticed that there were three distinct times of Christmas buying. The first was when those with money bought what they wanted when they wanted- around the end of Oct or first of Nov. A slight but noticable increase in sales. The second was the "day-after-Thanksgiving" sales. Here were the people who knew what they wanted but waited to see if the item could be had for less due to sales. A pretty major rise in sales yet it faded after about a week - not to pre-sale lows, but a fade none the less. The final group bought within the last two weeks as the Christmas holiday approached. The closer the event got - the more they had to settle for what was left. Could this be applied to Y2K also?? I think we have seen the first wave and now the lull is occurring before the "masses" realize that the time has come to buy "before the sales end". Heaven help us when the third wave hits and with it "panic buying"
Where do you think we are??
-- Robert Ludwig (NWphotog@Foxcomm.net), April 06, 1999
Robert, I think we are still in the pre thanksgiving scenario, ie, those with brains (money) know what they want (need) and are purchasing it now (or already have-continuing). I think *thanksgiving sales* will hit around September, maybe as late as October. I really don't believe *panic* will hit until the first to mid December, then it will get real nasty.
-- Rusty (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 06, 1999.
I don't think the last buying, or panic, will occur. You must admit, the government and industry have an ever increasing sales pitch going on that Y2K will be a nonevent. You can bet the propaganda for a nonevent will get more and more intense as the year goes on.
The majority of people will buy into this. They do not want to believe that life could be any different than the luxurious lifestyle we currently enjoy. And to believe differently...would mean needing to do an incredible amount of work to prepare for it. It is easier to believe the government and industry.
-- Apple (email@example.com), April 06, 1999.
I agree with Apple - UNLESS there is some sort of major social disruption between now and December which will cause the majority of the population to feel less secure. Barring that, I would expect any panic to occur on/after the 01/01/00 weekend.
-- Arlin H. Adams (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 06, 1999.
If none of the 'trigger' dates cause noticeable problems then it is unlikely there will be panic buying before year end. If these 'trigger' dates don't cause any problems --- what's the likelihood of severe problems at Y2K? Will that mean that software will not be a problem but embedded chips will? Who can say?
-- rod (email@example.com), April 06, 1999.
You mean we're exchanging Y2K gifts this year? I was just going to send cards.
-- Proud2baPolly (Proud2b@Polly.net), April 06, 1999.
My intention has been to not have to go near any stores after Thanksgiving (which means I have to complete all of my regular food shopping, Y2K shopping and XMAS shopping before then - yuck!). If Y2K panic is delayed until after Thanksgiving, then it will compete with XMAS shopping crunches (both post-Thanksgiving and then post-XMAS sales) as well as holiday partying. Normally a frightfully busy time of year anyway. Which of those activities would you be willing to give up? People may not allow themselves the "luxury" of panicking about Y2K at that time, other than a bank run. Y2K could create a market for Y2K gifts next December, but that isn't the same as accumulating months of food and other supplies.
-- Brooks (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 06, 1999.
There's another wrench to throw in, here.
Psychology is an inexact science at best. Another "trigger" would be a significant economic downturn (which many are arguing is already occurring (www.newaus.com.au/index.html for example).
So other triggers would include, stock market dip of 20% or greater (not much if you think about it); China devaluation of the Yuan (They're in Washington today talking about it); Brazil finally tanking; etc. etc.
The people would be a little less optimistic, and may pay more attention to Y2K at that point.
-- Jollyprez (email@example.com), April 06, 1999.
I concur with Apple and Arlin. Short of a major wake-up call, there will most likely be no year-end panic. Things have been too good for too long for the general population to think otherwise.
At this point, it looks like no more than max 10% of the population is doing any preps, at least in my area... and that estimate includes those who think a couple extra cans of tuna and a few bottles of water will see them through.
-- sparks (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 06, 1999.
I did not mean to say that the Y2K events will correspond with any Holiday Shopping. Simply that it will come in three waves. And I agree - the next wave won't occur until there is a "trigger" - Otherwise - "peoples is peoples"
-- Same as B4 (NWphotog@Foxcomm.net), April 07, 1999.