InfoMagic -- "At this point the stock market bubble will burst. I have predicted that this would happen in the October/November time frame, and I stand by my words. Shortly after the November elections, I expect some outside trigger event, probably the devaluation of the Brazilian Real, and the collapse of their economy. This will be so close to home, and it's effect on US banks so great, that the bear-fact will be readily apparent even to the bulls -- the global economy really is in deep trouble and none of the economic gimmicks are going to work.

"However, the market will not just crash as it did in 1929. Trading stop measures put into place since then will prevent a massive drop all in one day. Rather, there will be a series of major drops over a period of several days or even weeks. I expect a two to three thousand point drop in the DJIA by the end of November, with continued declines throughout December and early January. It will not be a happy holiday season for many. Doors will close and jobs will be lost, and the general sense of depression will weigh heavily on many.

"Then, in January '99, we will see a sharp rise in the number of software failures attributable directly to Y2K. Many will fail because they hit data event horizons one year into the future, in 2000 itself. Others because they hit the year-99 special handling boundary (which includes, but is not limited to, treating "99" as "end-of-file").

*** COMMENT: No comment should be necessary, for anyone who hasn't been living in a cave in the Amazon jungle. But for those who have been: HE WAS AS WRONG AS WRONG CAN BE.

reference: http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Vault/1157/infomagic-1.htm

=========================

Cory Hamasaki -- "Here's my guess. The backroom processing is doomed. The failures now are little surprises, lost records, missing transactions, incorrect total roll-ups. There have been about a dozen cites on c.s.y2k in December 1998 and the first week of January 1999 for problems. Some are early Jo Anne Effect and others seem to be "99"=error situations. Others are difficult to categorize.

According to Jo Anne's analysis, the problems should not be visibile until February or March. We're seeing the camel's nose."

*** COMMENT: It's now April 5th. Jo Anne Problems? Where are they? Where are these huge Jo Anne problems? Answer: THEY HAVEN'T SURFACED, TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. Those that have, are an anthill, compared to the predicted Everest.

reference: http://www.sonnet.co.uk/muse/DCW-107.TXT

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), April 05, 1999

Answers

Well, Mr. Little, You sound like one who has definitely made up his or her mind about how you would face any potential problem. Don't worry about it, there are plenty of yahoos out there getting ready, and when something happens, they are your contengency plan. Y2K or not, people should be ready for any thing that might happen. I live less than 70 miles from the San Andreas fault in California. Do you think I'm stupid enough not to have food, water, and first-aid for my health; not to mention rifles and plenty of ammuntion to take care of idiots who think its my job to prepare for them? The point is, we should be prepared for any problems.

-- Larry Wayne Trapp (lawada@tminet.com), April 05, 1999.

Larry:

Can you tell us exactly where CL said *anything* about making up his mind or about his preparations? Go ahead, show us.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 05, 1999.

So what, troll? My preparation doesn't stand on the prognostication of pundits. It stands on billions -with a "b"- being spent, frantically, world-wide, to fix this thing. It stands on the GAO catching the DOD and the FAA LYING about their "compliance." It stands on the continuous downward-revision of "mission critical" systems. It stands on the unaccountability of the private, short-sighted for-profit corporations that control our civilization's infrastructure.

You f*cking morons come around here nitpicking... I hope you don't prepare, weasles. I hope the contraction of the economy ruins you.

Prepared

-- Prepared (disgusted@misdirection.now), April 05, 1999.

Just what is Flint trying to accomplish nowadays?

-- STS (sad@to.see), April 05, 1999.

he can't flint,

its typical meme thinking. taking every statement to the furtherst extreme, because their MEME was disturbed...and that offends. It's the easiest way to spot someone who has the millennium contagion... their overreaction to those who challenge the doombrood mindset.

(ps Chick, you forgot the euro...)

-- Mutha Nachu (---@cornflowerblue.crayon), April 05, 1999.

Chicken Big,

Many folks have been wrong about the fall of the stock market so far. That does not mean it is not historically overvalued or the most massive financial bubble in the history of the world. It does however mean that they cannot time the market accurately.

The Dow was in record territory today. When folks open up the business section of their news paper tomorrow am many will be surprised at the fact that their stocks were down. On a day when the S&P 500 was up over 2% the best the NYSE could do was a Breadth of 1691 advancers to 1300 decliners. The technicians are not happy campers today.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), April 05, 1999.

MN,

You're typical unsocialized, maladaptive cerebrotonic little shits, smart enough to contract a severe case of ego-inflation, but too socially and emotionally stupid to know when you're boundary-crashing and insulting people. Over-reaction? You myopic eggheads are re-arranging deck-chairs on the Titanic (and congratulating eachother like a couple of cartoon chipmunks), while insulting people who are trying to organize an abandon ship - which is what this forum is about. Expect a reaction. And keep it up after Y2k; try it face-to-face. I only wish I could be there...

Prepared

-- Prepared (dumbfounded@socialcripples.now), April 05, 1999.

STS:

Although CL has a tendency to gloat a bit, he raises a substantive question: where are the bugs?

You will notice that Infomagic and Hamasaki both have decades of mainframe experience. On an earlier thread, there was an argument between Ed Yourdon and 'Computer Pro', both of whom claim very long experience. But one thing they agreed on: April 1 and immediately following would be a meaningful litmus test of overall y2k problems. I'm not trying to laugh at these people (as CL may be), they have been working with the code that would be affected by the spike dates we've passed so far throughout long careers. Presumably they know what they're talking about. Presumably they have written, maintained, and studied the offending code. Why didn't it break? What happened?

We've seen a number of theories so far -- remediation prevented it, or 99 and FY bugs aren't that big (but the experts used to think they were, remember), we can cope with a lot more than we expected, most y2k-type bugs aren't as devastating as expected, etc, etc. It's important to bear in mind that these spike dates weren't invented by PHMs, they were testified to by the actual writers of the code!

The observation that impacts so far have been miniscule is valid, accurate, and correct. It is in *no way* an implied argument against preparation. It is an observation. What inspires some of us to attack people for something they never said? CL told the undeniable truth and asked why the predictors had been so wrong. This is a good question.

If I were to post the genuine statistical probability of my house burning down (extremely tiny), would you assume I was arguing against fire insurance, or implying that I didn't carry any?

What I'm trying to do is address the issues, and separate the message from the messengers. I am offended by an attack against a messenger for a message he didn't even mention. You should be offended by this as well.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 05, 1999.

Prepared, thanks for putting things in perspective.

These Polly Trolls will be pushing babys aside in the grocery store shopping aisles when the time comes.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), April 05, 1999.

Ray:

I agree 100% that Prepared puts things into perspective. His unvarnished glazed-eyes-and-spittle mindlessness shines like a doomer beacon. He stands as an unmatched paragon for those to whom actual thought will forever remain a mystery. You gotta stand in awe!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 05, 1999.

Flint, excellent wordsmithing but flawed as usual.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), April 05, 1999.

I hope and pray (shocking but true) that the "pollys" are correct and the "doomers" are wrong. I mean that. I really do. I have no wish for my little world to crash around me. I like my life.

That does not stop me for one minute in preparing as best I can for the possible trouble to come.

If there is one simple reason that I think the "polys" are idiots it is because they refuse to acknowledge any possibility of serious problems ahead. They rant and foam at the mouth because we as a group have decided the stakes are high enough to do something proactive about it. It seems to upset them to no end that we have taken charge of our futures as best we can. For the life of me I cannot figure out why that upsets them so, other than the fact that they fear we may be right.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), April 05, 1999.

Ok, all insults and kidding aside - what are the possible explanations for major y2k dates passing without significant disruptions? Is it worthwhile to define significant? When I've been involved in IT implementations, it generally hasn't made a difference to the user if the failure is 'significant' or not...if it's your stuff that's failing and you don't have a backup - that's significant. So using that definition not one of us can talk about y2k failures unless we are talking about those failures that impact us. Does anyone want to contribute an antedote about that? s

-- Sharon Schultz (shalom100@aol.com), April 05, 1999.

Flint,

I have to hand it to you; you can say nothing about as eloquently as anyone I've ever seen. You're like an agnostic that always argues the atheist position but wears a cross under his shirt.

I hope that IF Y2K turns out to be serious you can live with yourself, Flint. IF people die because you've discouraged them from preparing, while you yourself have prepared for problems, how are you going to handle it? Will it bother your conscience? Will you feel the least bit guilty? Or will you rationalize and tell yourself that YOU weren't responsible for any suffering or death? I pray that you won't have to find out.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), April 05, 1999.

Uncle Deedah:

So Pollys rant and foam at the mouth? Permit me to quote from a post you might have seen recently. I won't tell you if this is Polly or Doomer, I ask you to guess based on your own description:

"You're typical unsocialized, maladaptive cerebrotonic little shits", "socially and emotionally stupid", "myopic eggheads", "cartoon chipmunks" and furthermore (I *love* this one) guilty of insulting people!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 05, 1999.

Flint, facts are facts !! Prepared hit the nail on the head so to speak. Why would you want to make this appear to be ranting and raving?

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), April 05, 1999.

flint!

you beat me to it!

A HAH HAHHAH HA hahah ha!

Just when this place starts to get boring, one of the extremists pops off with this! MY EYES ARE WATERIN' I LAUGHED SO HARD!

-- Mutha Nachu (---@stillgardenponds.com), April 05, 1999.

Flint,

You pose around the cyber-salon in your powdered wig and obliquely malign the OBJECT OF THIS FORUM, WHICH IS TO PREPARE AND TO HELP OTHERS PREPARE, by harping on the "Joanne Effect." I am here to tell you that most Y2k aware people, many of us who have SEEN DOOM IN AMERICA in the 1930s, are not impressed with your chortling down your lace sleeves at "doomers." We aren't taken in by your straw man arguments about fiscal year 99. Fiscal year 99 and 00 are two separate issues entirely. Government and industry aren't LYING TO US about 99. They aren't spending BILLIONS on 99. Your 99 smokescreen is utter bullshit, and we all know it. But I trust you will continue to go round and round with your contemptuous, satyrical magic show... And yes, unlike this younger generation of "sensitive boys," I'm not suffering from the epidemic of lowered sperm-count. If you talk trash, you'd best be ready to put up or shut up. I am not ashamed to declare that I hate you for your insults, your snide remarks, your sycophantic service to the monied elites who flood every channel of their media cartel with soothing lies, misdirection and disinformation. And I want you to feel that hatred. Consider it an opportunity to wake up and grow a conscience. And your snot-nosed remarks about me are typical computer-jocky cowardice. If you had the nerve to talk to me like that face to face, you'd see that my eyes are anything but glazed. Yours would be, however - in about .2 seconds. You are a coward; you feel superior to focused agression, and you deride it, because you are not capable of it. You are a shill, your hollow arguments are pathetic, and the next millenium will have little use for you.

Prepared.

-- Prepared (on@aroll.now), April 05, 1999.

Mutha, you used the word extremists, are the folks who decide to prepare extremists? Would you like to make people believe that? Sounds like you listen to the WH press briefings every day.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), April 05, 1999.

flex those cyber-muscles!

I think it's time for your medication now...

-- Mutha Nachu (---@bigtuffguys.com), April 05, 1999.

"I am planning on taking all of my money out of the bank."

- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 30, 1999

-- a (a@a.a), April 05, 1999.

Prepared-

Please go easier on Flint, and use Vaseline next time...I can smell burnt asshole all the way over here.

-- y2k con (a@b.c), April 05, 1999.

Many thanks Prepared, Nabi and Uncle Deedah. I hope and pray that folks new to this forum will take the time to really dig into the facts presented here and not be swayed by some of the dribble that shows up every so often.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), April 05, 1999.

I wonder if MN, CL and Flint hang around on other forums that have 'themes' they disagree with?

I wonder if they have any social life at all?

They strike me as the kind of people who constantly have their nose in someone else's business, trying to dictate what someone else should do and should not do.

I wonder why they never pay attention to the fact that how we choose to spend our money, and what we believe could happen is none of their business. I seriously doubt the buying power of those of us in this forum is enough to make any difference to the economy. And those with enough money to do so, do not hang around in this forum.

I wonder if they aren't in such need of attention that 'bad' attention is better than none. Isn't that sad?

Oh well, that is definitely more time spent wondering about them then they deserve.

-- (wondering@about.you), April 05, 1999.

Y2k con:

No problem, Prepared is a rather comical child. Imagining that if only he could BEAT UP those who examine the evidence, that evidence would go away and doom would arrive on schedule because of it!

You will notice that I wasn't the one who predicted Jan 1 problems, lookahead problems, 99 problems, Euro problems, JAE problems, FY problems, etc. Even though Prepared seems to think I did. Instead, those problems were predicted by Infomagic, Yourdon, Hamasaki, and others, each with decades of experience writing the offending code itself. Surely those predictions were based on some real knowledge.

Nabi:

I don't know quite what you're talking about. How many times do I have to write that making accurate observations is *not* arguing that preparation is unnecessary. No wonder you think I said nothing -- you didn't read it!

So let me try talking at apparently the only level you understand: My money will be under the mattress. I have prepared for at least a year. I believe we started remediation too late. I believe most actual testing will be done 'live' after rollover, and I expect serious consequences (but I can't predict what they'll be, and neither can you). I find Yourdon's decade of depression entirely reasonable.

I do *not* believe that the denizens of this forum must be fed highly biased propaganda to arrive at what *you* think are the proper conclusions. I think they're capable of making their own determinations, if the information is presented clearly and accurately. It doesn't need to be twisted beyond recognition to try to *force* people to your conclusions.

Yes, I agree everyone should prepare, because I think preparation is prudent. I think it's an insult to those reading this forum to try to *frighten* them into preparing. Accurate information, well understood, is quite sufficient.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 05, 1999.

Flint, you need to see a shrink. Go back and read some of your posts. Then try and reconcile them with what you just said. I honestly believe that you may be suffering from a Multiple Personality Disorder.

-- a (a@a.a), April 05, 1999.

Flint has a point. GIs are as guilty as anyone of overreaction.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), April 05, 1999.

WHaT The heLL iS WRonG WItH mulIPLe perSOnaLiTY disORdeR??????? jaCKaL!!!!!! TheSE FoLks aRE VEry UNdeRAppRECIATed, aRE THeY NoT????? hUh????? IDioT!!!!!! wHY Don'T You inFIDeLS InvITE One oR tWO Or thREE tO A PARty?????? caN YoU Not sEE The exTRa fuN yOU WouLD haVE WitHOUt uPPinG THe bAR TAb???????

-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), April 05, 1999.

AAAAAAAAAMMMEEEENNNN Prepared!!!!!!

-'Bout time someone with balls stood up to these intellectually handicapped twerps.

It appears Flint is making do with his aloe vera. Next time perhaps we should up it a notch and say - - nuke his ass?

I'm with you in this war pal. Take no prisoners. Let's get truth and logic out there unabashed.

-- Got Testosterone?

-- INVAR (gundark@aol.com), April 05, 1999.

I'm entirely ignorant about Y2K. If you are the world's foremost expert on anything/everything you aren't much less ignorant. Y2K is more than economics and computers. It includes mass psychology, which is NOT accurately predictable by those who trumpet "American igenuity" or those who talk about "sheeple", or anyone in between. Even if Y2K started out as a hoax and no computer or embedded system anywhere will experience the slightest hiccup, Y2K could still ruin us. Even if 10%+ embedded systems fold and computer problems run amok, we might still pull through ok. Nobody understands completely how the world is interconnected. Nobody knows exactly what problems will arise or how those problems will combine. I don't know. If you think you do, congratulations. If you think you know and get annoyed at others that "know" differently, just grow up. Being sure about Y2K is like being sure of religion, and it leads to similar dynamics. If someone makes fun of your silly hat, resist the urge to mock virgin-birth. (Or vice-versa.) If someone mocks your preparation, resist the urge to make fun of their trust in the media/government. (Or vice-versa.) Take/share whatever you can find that you think is useful and ignore the rest. I would have been interested in reading a real discussion resulting from this post and was disappointed to wade through the schoolyard nonsense.

-- Steve Hartzler (s.hartzler@usa.net), April 05, 1999.

Steve,

I too am frustrated. I tried to start a discussion, but again I failed.

I will admit that I am encouraged by the paucity of errors noted so far this year, *especially* in light of the level of expertise of those whose knowledge of their own code led them to predict problems. I would really appreciate someone with that knowledge showing up and explaining the situation in some technical detail.

I've been battling a long time now against those who offer guarantees of the future one way or another. I think proper study and understanding can help us eliminate the impossible, and refine the probabilities of the remainder.

I view what we're trying to do as an investigative proceeding, and I find myself surrounded by those who can see it only as an adversarial proceeding. How can we follow what's going on if our goal is to win arguments and attack the unbeliever?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 05, 1999.

*AHEM*

To continue Mr. Hartzler's same sane train of thought, and hopefully discontinue this insane infighting...to get back to the original point of this post (which has not really been insightfully addressed YET...)

"What about the VERY vocal doomer posts of InfoMagic/Hamasaki/Slaven? Why Haven't They Been Fulfilled?"

Haven't seen an intelligent Doomer response to this question yet. Does one exist? And impugning of my motives doesn't count. Facts, however, do count. Would love to see someone offer some. This has turned into a rather long thread; still no facts in refutation of the original premise. Why is that?

(Footnote: Ray's early note about many people's being wrong about the stock market, by way of apologizing for InfoMagic, is so much fluff....we've all been reading stock market analyses for some decades, but InfoMagic's reason for such a sudden late '98 crash, which didn't happen, by the way, was Y2k...any connection to normal, garden-variety stock market fluctuation predictions by normal stock market gurus is totally fictional and superfluous.)

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), April 05, 1999.

I'm not sure I qualify as a "Doomer" but I'll stick my neck out and say that maybe Infomagic was wrong about when the market would react. I'll go out on a limb and say that maybe the early significance of the Jo Anne effect was overstated.

Happy now?

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), April 05, 1999.

Chicken Big,

Have you made any predictions about y2k? Just because these predictions and/or guesses have not happened to date does not mean they will not come to pass. These folks have had the guts to express their opinions how about you?

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), April 05, 1999.

Uncle Deedah --

well if you're not a doomer, you're close enough. But you're one of the more honorable and honest ones I've encountered. Have seen your posts before. So kudos, sir.

Jonathan --

Great Jumpin French Fries....that site should be required reading for ANYone even thinking about becoming versed on Y2k issues. It just took a place at the front of this guy's WhyTooKay bookmarks, you betcha. Thanks --

ought to make a 'hot' link to it here, even --

http://www.ironic.com/y2k/

Gonna forward that link to all Too-kay-aware folks I know. Thanks!

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), April 05, 1999.

Dear Reader,

The question is valid. A number of Y2K "authorities" have made well- documented predictions about Y2K-problems. The Gartner Group predicted a full 25% of Y2K problems would occur this year. January 1, 1999, and the Euro were seen as indicators. Then it was April 1, 1999. Now, I imagine, prognosticators will begin rethinking the July 1, 1999, "drop dead" date, the GPS rollover in August and the beginning of the new federal fiscal year in October.

Personally I discount the theory of a "conspiracy of silence." There are too many firms and public entities to hide significant problems. In fact, I am surprised there have not been more IT meltdowns conveniently blamed on Y2K noncompliance.

The response to the question itself has been disappointing. Of concern is the undercurrent of anger and violence running through some of the comments. Using "war" as a description, I have found, is usually done by those who know nothing of war. Preparing for Y2K is nothing like a war... and anonymous Internet posters, with bluff and bluster, are not warriors.

Asking legitimate questions about Y2K is one of the purposes of this forum. Most of the so-called Pollyannas I have read do not discourage individuals from preparation... they simply question the underlying premise of extreme preparation for Y2K. By extreme, I mean "preparation" for a ten-year depression, martial law and/or civil unrest.

The appropriate response to the question is an answer. What is happening in the IT world? Why are things going so smoothly? Is it possible the "experts" over estimated the problem? Perhaps we can try to provide real answers.

In the mean, shall we avoid personal attacks. The accusation of "low morals" brought me back to the McCarthy era.

Mr. Decker

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), April 05, 1999.

I'm getting tired of typing this. They call it the Y2K problem for a good reason, not the various dates in 1999 problem. The number of programs that do look ahead processing is tiny compared to the big picture, including embeded systems. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), April 05, 1999.

By the way, it could be the free market at work. Unlike many social problems, money can go a long, long way to solving Y2K problems.

In the words of many posters....

Got profit?

Mr. Decker

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), April 05, 1999.

Okay Ray, I'll bite.

I think Y2k will cause significant problems pretty much everywhere. In the U.S.; some overseas places especially; everywhere. In a box, with a fox. In a train, on a plane. With those who spam, with green eggs and ham.

But I think that a lot of people (especially the variety that seem to populate this forum) are taking the issue too far, in light of progress that has been made. A year ago, I felt just as the 'doomers' do. But live and learn. Change and adapt your ideas to present realities.

Progress has been made. To deny that is to get stuck in the past...or...maybe...to become victim to those who have reason to see that you're stuck in the past. And if you don't think that there are people out to make a monetary/political killing off of this Y2k thing, then maybe you really ought to go live in a cave somewhere, because reality has really escaped you.

Preparation itself, by itself, is not the issue. The degree of it is. So many people on here want to think that just because someone is not a "doomer", that then they think there is no problem at all. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I'm not a doomer (have you guessed that?) but I think preparations are absolutely necessary. But not to the degree advocated by the doomers. See? It's a matter of DEGREE, not a matter of whether we think a problem exists or not. That's the whole thing.

I don't think that Pollyannas even exist, to any appreciable degree. Pollys are people who know Y2k can be a threat, but deny any possible bad effects. Most folks are either (1) ignorant, or (2) know about it and are undecided, or (3) know about it and are fairly confident that things will be basically OK, with preparations needed even so, or (4) know about it and are more doomer-oriented.

Polly is a label that the more pessimistic people choose to put upon those who don't agree with them. I'm not a Polly by any stretch, as far as the classic "rose-colored glasses" definition goes; yet when I've stated opinions contrary to the most doom-and-gloom opinions offered, what have I been called? Yep, a 'Polly'. It's a knee-jerk term, which has become almost meaningless in its well-universal application. (Well, universal outside the doomer camp.)

Now, lest anyone accuse me of hypocrisy in applying terms: doomers themselves have called themselves doomers, and everyone knows what a doomer is. Should be no question there. If there is, please correct me, and let us all know what the correct definition of a 'doomer' is.

Anyway, Ray, I think this whole thing will be a genuine medium-level nuisance in the U.S.; worse in many other countries. And some of those overseas problems will roll back upon us; we do have a globally-interconnected economy now, after all. But I don't agree that when trouble strikes, society will break down and those who are without resources will instantly turn into Jasons, Frankensteins and Draculas. I think people will pull together to help one another. That's what has happened throughout history, by and large. I don't know what makes the doomers think that people will act so differently now, this time around.

You wanted my prediction. There ya go. It'll be attacked, dissected, and spat upon; but there it is.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), April 05, 1999.

Chicken: Hopefully you are right. If it so happens, I will gracefully retire from this forum and gleefully take my place in line at the Milne dunking booth. My prayers (literally every night) will have been answered.

But I just don't see it happening that way. We are on the brink of global economic collapse right now (remember the cover of Time a few weeks ago with Greenspan and crew entitled "Three who would save the world"?). We have possibly entered into a third world war. We have a host of other pressing problem to address early in the next century.

How will y2k, even if it is a 2 or 3 as you expect, affect this precarious situation? You seem to think it will have a net positive effect, stabilizing the world. I do not share you optimism. And I refuse to back down on my message to prepare until I am certain that the danger of TEOTWAWKI is non-existent.

-- a (a@a.a), April 06, 1999.

Mutha -- thanks for the meme link.

Chicken Little -- I also believe that most people will rise to this occasion and behave like decent human beings.

Flint -- you must feel like you're slogging through wet cement sometimes!

Can we please hear debate and not name-calling?

-- Helen (sstaten@fullnet.net), April 06, 1999.

Folks:

Long ago and far away when I was stupid enough to be a systems designer/project leader, I worked for a firm which tried, for 4 years, to implement a system which was issued by the national trademark holder. This "Project" became so well known in the area, that the company could only hire semi experienced personel (me to a "T" then), or HIGH priced rental bodies. The project was to become the core of the business, ahndling the two functions of the business. The plans that failed, the implementations that failed (more than one), were NEVER known about outside the organization, INCLUDING the State Office of Oversight in our industry. The "Project" cost several millions of dollars, and was eventually scrapped as the organization was sold to a twin (pseudo merger) who eventually tried to sell it to a private entity, which caused the bounce of the logo, the failure of the sale, and eventually the control of the state commission.

The point is that even with the toady spies from Cranes Business magazine sniffing around, the failures of the project, the dollars thrown down the rathole were NEVER brought to light. We can hardly expect any failures that do not actually stop the show to come to light.

PS For those of you who figure that the sheer numbers of people would get the news out, consider that this "Project" at one time had 160+ people working full time on it, and about another 100 working part time. It never made a ripple.

If you are terribly morbid and need specifics, use the e-mail address. it is valid.

Chuck,a night driver

-- Chuck, a night driver (reinzoo@en.com), April 06, 1999.

I've got it worked out,

These two little creeps, Klint and Mutha Nachos, have folders on regular posters. It's happened too often. These two foundlings have taken it upon themselves to be the bastion of right wing Amerika - well you can both fuc* off as by now I think we've all realised what your game is.

Why the immediate "quotations" of people all the time Klint (Flint), what is it, military training, you wouldn't be a k'lintonite SHILL by any chance would you?

Or an imbecile to think that the folks reading this are fooled?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 06, 1999.

a --

Appreciate the forthright (and not derogatory) response.

But am not expecting Y2k to stabilize the world. Far from it.

Am expecting Y2k to stabilize NEIGHBORHOODS and FAMILIES in an unstable world.

Family, friends, and neighbors are largely what life is all about.

We'll soon find out. I still have faith in that idea. And I refuse to back down on that idea until it has been beaten out of me by those very people of whom I speak. And that ain't going to happen.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), April 06, 1999.

Please Andy, you're slaying me here LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!! What can you do for an encore, post something on a konspiracy by the Ronald McDonald Kommission to corner the burger market? You too much man, you da bomb fassure.

-- Really Amused Now (giggling@laughing.hard), April 06, 1999.

Wellll - those particular predictions were shown to be incorrect.

Okay - so what? If more than half of the companies, government agencies, or utilities who have finished remediation and testing were able to establish that they wasted time, money, and effort (profits) on their Y2K remediation efforts - then I would be tempted to scale down my estimates for how much and how widespread the probable troubles will be, and how long they may last in various parts of the country and world.

But to date, nobody, anywhere has said publically that they wasted any substantial part (actually any part at all) of the almost 1 trillion dollars spent/scheduled to be spent on repair efforts. Thus, I will maintain that the only ones burying their head in the sand are those who fervently don't WANT to admit to the potential troubles.

Now, since I will not admit to any greater than a 0.25% probablility of long-term G. North-type-disaster, and no more than a 0.25% chance of a Mr Koskinen-type-bump-in-the-road non-problem, I guess that means that I have a 99.50% percent chance of being proved right - despite any signs of any problems this year.

Now - having established that I can't be proved wrong - since I admit to the possiblility of all three outcomes, I really would want to what the agenda is of those who are so adament in their religious fervor to ensure people abandon preparation for year 2000 probable troubles. For example - I know that Flint personally is preparing for a longer period of difficulty than I am - he evidently sees a greater chance of local troubles lasting longer in his region than I foresee down here. Fine - his choice, I applaud him for it.

But what is the motive for such people as "y2kpro" , MN, and other "biffy's" as the term goes? What do they gain by fighting so hard to discourage people from preparing? Profit? No - as far as we know, they are not making money form their antics - unless hired by the fed's PR company.

Wages? Perhaps, there is nothing to indicate that is incorrect. But who would employ them to commit such actions? Well - again we know the fed's (actually the second-tier administration-types hired since 1992 have been seen to do worse to people and groups who threaten their rule), so we cannot rule that out. Simple malacious vandalism? Could be - the vandals in NYC and elsewhere must enjoy spray-painting subway cars. Getting attention by being irritating? A rather simplistic answer - but again, not unlikely.

The only logical answer is the fed's and banking system - again based on the frequency of the cries about not pulling money out of banks. Could be - certainly its logical, and has no opposing reasons visible. So, is the motive profit - as you (generically) are so willing to credit those who are preparing with being motived by?

To the original question - the original predictions appear to be wrong - but there is no evidence that the problem has been removed. To the contrary - every day going by with only 50 some-odd utility power plants declaring themselves "able to test" in year 2000 shows me that the remaining 3950 (or so) cannot time-advance their clocks.

Else something will break.

So - what happens when the rest of the world's systems face the same deadline - and less than half are repaired? Nothing? If so, why can't you (the polyanna'ed crowd of apparent Clinton-administration supporters and defenders) show credible evidence of a company, system, or government agency able to fix-on-failure NOW by setting ahead their clocks (in the whole system) without remediation?

Show me any city in the top 50 ready now. Show me a government agency ready to go now. Show me a credible schedule for completion. Show me why I should abandon the preparations you evidently fear so much - and show me why you fear them.

Also - if I abandon preparations - as you (generically) are evidently so fervent in wishing me and the rest of America to - who will take care of my family if the troubles occur?

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (Cook.R@csaatl.com), April 06, 1999.

hmmm....just an experiment

just ran a page scan on the word "shill"...only people that used that word were 'Prepared' and 'Andy'....

kinda reminds me of when we were kids, and someone broke wind, and one kid would say, "He did it!" with pointing finger....

the rest of us would say, "Guilty one speaks first"....

hmmmmm

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), April 06, 1999.

It is not unreasonable to speculate that there are multiple date failures or problems happening all around us even as we type. Whether we can see or be directed affected by them is a different matter.

Where I work some software modifications were made, it wasn't until 3 months later that the problem evidenced itself. The problem was there throughout that entire three months, it just didn't start directly affecting us until that 3 months was up.

After all, how many people worry about their clocks or watches losing a second of time every day, until you are late for that very important appointment several months later.

The errors may be already here and they may be cumulative.

Regards, Simon

-- Simon Richards (simon@wair.com.au), April 06, 1999.

Sharon,

You asked...

Ok, all insults and kidding aside - what are the possible explanations for major y2k dates passing without significant disruptions?

This topic was covered in many threads before April 1 ever arrived. Here are just two of them:

"fiscal years reported as yr 2000"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000add

...and...

"Will something really happen or just another April Fool's Day"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000f20

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 06, 1999.

If you tolerate liars, you will continue to be ruled by them.

You love, and believe, a lie. You want to hear an irrelevant discussion about GPS or the Joanne Effect; you want to hear anything that will reduce your anxiety. From anyone, even if they're directly and repeatedly insulting you.

I don't hate "Chicken Little" and Flint because they foist irrelevancies on this forum in an attempt to distract you. I hate them because they deride and insult those who are preparing (Flint's preparation is a complete departure from his earlier posts). The title of this post: "BOGUS DOOMER predictions..." directly implies 1)not mere error, but FRAUD on the part of the people who made the predictions, and 2)that those who made the prediction are "DOOMERS," a term of derision. In the context of media demonization of preparers, that's like referring to black people by the "N" word, or calling all christians "Jesus Freaks." "Chicken Little," by choosing that name and e-mail address, is openly showing contempt for those who prepare, and equating preparation with panic. Anyone who hurls these kind of accusations and insinuations is no longer on the social register, in my opinion. With their insults, they have forfeited the right to courtesty from me, and ought to be driven off of this forum. Have a pleasant discussion with them if you want. THESE PEOPLE ARE, AND LONG HAVE BEEN, ACTIVELY DISCOURAGING PREPARATION, RELENTLESSLY, DAY AFTER DAY. WHY ARE THEY HERE? You should ask yourself that question each time they post. You should deride them as vociferously and vehemently as I do. People are going to die in massive numbers due to Y2k, and most of these deaths are preventable with a little preparation. By discouraging people from preparing, these men are buying time for the banks and F500 companies. After the deaths occur, these same shills and sycophantic "company men" will be placing the blame on programmers, on "hoarders," on "militias" (any community that resists martial law)- anywhere but on the corrupt and shortsighted management and intelligensia, where it belongs. Because of your "courtesty" and "reasonableness," the same criminals will stay at the helm, and there will be no accountablity for the disaster. If you roll over for them now, and you're not likely to be any less submissive when the chips are down.

Prepared.

-- Prepared (recognize@shills.now), April 06, 1999.

AAAAAMMMEEEENNNN again Prepared. Go tell it on the mountain.

Unfortunately Americans these days don't WANT to hear the truth.

They want to hear smooth things, easy things, the things they want to hear.

They want to believe the lie. They want to be coddled.

Vigilance is too hard for them.

Unless you create a demon and a scapegoat.

This is the process currently underway.

Folks that are awake to realise that what you foretell Prepared is EXACTLY what will soon transpire....are the very ones that are now having bullseyes painted on them by twerps like the idiot trolls above. These are nothing more than spinmeisters of the current elites and Administration that are busy waging the Culture War we now find ourselves in.

They are the NEW AMERICAN GESTAPO. It is a social order that may soon unwittingly involve everyone. Know or suspect someone of being paranoid of this government? Know a racist, or homophobe? Know someone hoarding, stockpiling or preaching Y2K preparations? Label them, derride them, point them out and soon perhaps there may be ways to silence them.

I know to idiots like Mutha, Flint and others, this will be evidence of mass hysteria and paranoia on my part...but that's okay. I'm in the good company of the Founding Fathers and their writings about self-sufficiency and distrust of government.

The question for the rest of you is: When the time comes, are you willing to get on the train they tell you to?

Or will you resist to defend the birthright you were bequeathed with?

-- INVAR (gundark@aol.com), April 06, 1999.

Prepared you must feel really proud for you have INVAR singing your praise!

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), April 06, 1999.

CL, I am wondering many of the same things as you. Don't know if this means being lulled into a false sense of security or whether I ought to double my paranoia about "spin" and "PR" and so on. Clearly people are working really hard on y2k and actually succeeding in fixing it. ARe they fixing it fast enough to avert a supply chain crisis or a knockout blow to the JIT economy? Who knows? Are people participating in obfuscation about y2k compliance--toward either negative or positive expectation? You bet.

It seems plausible, though, that many JOA and 99 errors never got much publicity and were covered up or worked around.

Might I suggest toning down the vitriol re: GI or DGI? Y2K is not going to have a binary outcome (ie., either "nothing happens" or a Gary North 10). Most likely it will be in between 0 and 10, or have varying effects on different people depending on where one lives or what one does.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), April 06, 1999.

Maria holds a ticket on that one-way train.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), April 06, 1999.

INVAR and Prepared: ever give a though to a vaudeville revival?

-- Amused (laughing@hard.now), April 06, 1999.

There have been many "bogus" Y2K predictions...

http://www.auto.com/industry/qbug23.htm

[snip]

But the Big Three are confident they will enter the new millennium smoothly. GM, Ford and Chrysler plan to finish debugging by the end of 1998. They'll spend 1999 fine tuning.

[snip]

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 07, 1999.

So.... Chicken Little is really

DOC PAULIE WANTS A CRACKER???

-- Now I GI (amazing@isn't.it), April 09, 1999.