Y2K.. Start of a golden age, or the Slammer Negative TEOTWAWKI Scalegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Has anyone considered that perhaps we're taking the wrong view. I have been watching and preparing since 1996. At first taking a survivalist standpoint, thinking of the inevitablilty of a stock market crash and other nightmarish scenarios. After a few years as I reports and statements indicating most companies have plans in place (SEC 10-Q etc.) I later started thinking middle of the road. However I am now thinking it may be possible that this could be the greatest international economic windfall for the U.S. in history. The dramatic spread of computers in the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's was primarily fueled by the U.S. Most of the technology overseas that will fail (and I mean WILL fail) is of U.S. design. Remember Kuwait.. Who did they come to to put out the oil well's. We are going to have Y2K failures but we started the earliest, we are the farthest ahead, we have the best understanding of the problem and we are going to have a huge highly trained work force (and by then highly unemployed due to layoffs because remediation and validation will be completed here) to be farmed out for a price. When the companies overseas who are suppliers fail because of thier Y2K condition, our's who have solved thier own will step in to fill the bill. Not only for our own domestic companies but also as suppliers for the burgeoning overseas makets. Although the potential for great devastation is still there (i.e. the embedded chip problem) if thiers money to be make, and a market to be taken over, American entrepreneurs will step in and that will drive the rebuilding at home. In light of this I would like to alter the range and scope of the scale, formerly 1 to 10 to -10 to +10.. With -10 being a (Oh god no..) Max Americana (Maximum American dominance of international markets), and +10 still being TEOTWAWKI. IMHO the situation will be as follows. USA -2, Rest of the World 5 Average 1.5
-- Slammer (Slammer@NoSpam.Please), April 05, 1999
Yes ... we will all become rich, beautiful, famous, and live forever in this land of perfect peace and bliss. You forgot to mention that all disease will be eliminated.
-- Jon Johnson (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 05, 1999.
Perhaps by 2002+ we will be in the position to help others rebuild. Until then, we will have a mess to straighten out here. US 6, rest of the world 7-11.
-- Bill (email@example.com), April 05, 1999.
Why are these either/or? I suspect Yardeni's expectation of a subsequent boom is based on a somewhat similar basis. The big "if" is the reverberation of world collapse on us (not just on markets, that's the least of it, but supply chain, commodities availability, etc). I expect a long post-Y2K boom, but I don't see the boom happening until sometime between 2005-2010. BTW, there will be fantastic opportunities in businesses that exercise somewhat outside the traditional envelope (think: new KINDS of goods-services based on Y2K lessons learned).
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 05, 1999.
The U.S. won't be able to function very well if it doesn't have the gasoline it needs. We don't have much of a manufacturing base left here either. It will not be business as usual in 2000.
-- Henry P. (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 05, 1999.
Can I get Slammer's lemonade recipe?
"When life hands you lemons..."
-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), April 05, 1999.
AGAIN,,,,,, WE cannot repair / replace in 3-4 years, what took 45 years to create, unless your are GOD. ( AKA, Norm or y2kPro )
-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), April 05, 1999.