Forecaster predicts deadly Atlantic hurricane season : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Can't remember seeing this posted, sorry if it's been done. Those of us in Gulf and Atlantic states might use our stashes sooner than anticipated. Forecaster predicts deadly Atlantic hurricane season

April 2, 1999, Web posted at: 11:53 a.m. EST (1653 GMT)

ORLANDO, Florida (AP) -- Tropical storms and hurricanes killed thousands of people last year, and a top forecaster says the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season could be just as deadly.

"The odds strongly favor us entering a new era for storms," William Gray, a Colorado State University weather forecaster, said Thursday at the National Hurricane Conference.

The hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts through November 30.

Gray predicted that the hurricane season this year could match the 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes that killed at least 10,000 people in 1998, mostly by Hurricane Mitch in Honduras.

Cyclical changes making Atlantic waters warmer and saltier are behind the upswing in storm activity, Gray said. The same conditions have not been seen since the late 1960s.

The 1999 season will have 14 named storms and nine hurricanes, four of them major, Gray predicted. "That's a very active season."

Florida could experience severe damage sometime in the near future because of the upswing in the number of storms and because more people are living in storm-prone areas.

"We're going to be seeing a $50 billion-, $70 billion-, $100 billion-damage storm," Gray said. "Florida is a sitting duck."

Over the last 30 years, an average of about 10 tropical storms have occurred annually, and five or six have reached hurricane strength.

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said at the conference that he would work to improve hurricane evacuation routes and maintain tougher building codes.

"We have a responsibility to make sure people can escape when they are asked to do so," he said.

Tropical storm and hurricane names selected for 1999 for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Carribean are Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Floyd, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma.

Cut and pasted by

-- Old Git (, April 04, 1999


Thanks Old Git....just what I wanted to hear. However we live on the spine of the State of Fl so are 60 miles inland from either coast. Doesn't mean we can't get blown away or hit with the tornados swinging off the 'canes. If we got really blown away, I don't suppose our preparations would do us much good. However, if we just sustained damage and could stay in our house, or RV we would be glad we had them. Either way, I can't see the cane's taking our two ton generator and that would sure come in handy for everyone in the neighborhood. Hurricanes, tornados, floods, WWIII, y2k and plague. Anything more out ther?. You might as well lay it on me now.

Got prayers??

-- Taz (, April 04, 1999.

We might need those storms to blow some unwanteds back to where they came from!

-- stormsacomin (stormsarising@USA.thunder), April 04, 1999.

Yeah, I hope you're first.

-- Uncle Deedah (, April 04, 1999.

Thank you Old Git, I am concerned.

Uncle Deedah...u r so right concerning that washed out "stormascomin".........GlassHouses an all that...From even further south on that peninsula....

Keep a penny for me...Charon....

-- Charon (, April 04, 1999.

Old Git, Yes,Heard from St Kitts & Nevis last week,that 4 major hurricanes have been forecast this season.

We should have been out there last year but Hurricane George blew down our new factory unit.It is supposed to be completed this June..just in time to be blown down again.

Got tarpaulins ? You bet!

-- Chris,Caribbean Dreaming (, April 04, 1999.

"Prepare as if for a Hurricane" .... psst, that's as in Mitch X 10 ...

-- Leska (, April 04, 1999.

Wilma! They're going to honor Ms. Flintstone! How nice! :-)

-- No Spam Please (, April 04, 1999.

I'm surprised none of you noticed they called one wind Maria. . . And there's one with the name of Sweetie's first wife. . .

-- Old Git (, April 04, 1999.

Ol' Git, I must of missed that name. I don't recall seeing a hurricane named Bitch!! Hmmmm! Better read the list again.

Got your bug out bag packed?

-- Taz (, April 04, 1999.

ROFLMAO! You are SO naughty! I knew there was something I liked about you!

-- Old Git (, April 04, 1999.

Jeepers, could it get any worse. What is this? Y2K, solar flares, hurricanes, war... I may have to buy a bible.

-- d (d@dgi.old), April 04, 1999.

If we have satellite problems I am concerned about poor hurricane forecasting. Those GOES satellites save a lot of lives. If Y2k is severe we may not get good forecasts during the 2000 hurricane season. As a matter of fact I am concerned about not getting any weather forecasts after the first of the year. A category 5 storm that no one knows is coming could kill a lot of people. Does anyone know the status of the Hurricane Center and the other weather services for Y2K?

-- Big (, April 04, 1999.

From what I've read on the issue, you really don't want to hear the answer. Let's just say that you might want to go buy a copy of a home weather forecasting manual, a barometer, thermometer and wind gauge set.

Quiet honestly, modern weather forecasting relies on more than satellites. Telecommunications, forecast computers, computer-enhanced weather radar systems and embedded devices in remote data sensing systems are all potential problems mentioned in one report.

Just remember, the killer hurricane that caused so much death and destruction in Long Island and Connecticut was not in anyone's forecast. If the worst-case occurs, we may have such events occur again in the post-Y2K period when our current capabilities are being re-constituted.


-- Wildweasel (, April 04, 1999.

Y2K could be a big enough problem by itself, imagine what it will be like if nature likes us even less than tech...

-- d (d@dgi.old), April 04, 1999.

Has anyone heard of some government agency doing tests to try and control the weather. Is it the HARRP project, or am I all wet? I read that somewhere.

-- gilda jessie (, April 04, 1999.

Yikes, since I live right on the coast, I hadn't thought about this. Just another reason why I depend more on the internet than the other media...What is the URL where I can see how prepared those weather predicting folks are? thanks, W'

-- WoodstoK`2K (, April 04, 1999.


Do you have any details on the provenence of these "potential problems"? Have any of these devices been tested? Any results?

From your listing, it sounds like someone made a list of everything involved in weather forecasting, more complex than a donkey barometer. A year ago, such lists were OK, they were part of the inventory phase. Today, we ought to know quite a bit more. Do we?

-- Flint (, April 04, 1999.

An article in this weeks "Science News" stated that 1998 was quite possibly the warmest year in the last 1,000.

Warmer weather, by and large, creates warmer water. Warm water fuels hurricanes.

Yes, forecasters, most climatologists (from what I've read) AND insurance company underwriters all expect it to get worse over the next several years.

-- Jon Williamson (, April 04, 1999.

I talked to some users of the WSR88 Dopler system last summer and mentioned 2000. Got treated to a couple new versions of a bronx cheer, as i mentioned in my query thread.


-- Chuck, a night driver (, April 04, 1999.

Of course, huricanes are more sustained and devastating than tornadoes, but FWIW, every other day the weather guys here in the Midwest are repeating "double the tornadic activity this year." And last year sure wasn't a picnic!

Getting things ready to retire to the basement at first sign of green skies and hoping to survive intact.

Of course, the fallen trees WILL provide lots of firewood.

Stay safe, everybody.

-- Dorothy and Toto (, April 05, 1999.

Please bear in mind that with tremendous amounts of emergency aid and personnel being diverted to the Albanian refugees, there will be less to go around for any problems here. Not that I think we should curtail help to the refugees, just that it's one more good reason to prepare individually for any disaster.

-- Old Git (, April 05, 1999.

Good point, Old Git. This year is full of reasons to prepare. Only the blind are still head-sand blithely continuing on without noticing "normal" is starting to crumble.

-- Leska (, April 05, 1999.

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