This question is directed at those who are at least following the Red Cross guidelines for preparation (or more than that).

When bad things happen, the true impact is not often felt immediately. Plenty of examples, but here's one: loved ones die, and the effect is felt for years.

So the question is, based on what your understanding of the potential negative effects of Y2K, WHEN do you think you will need your preparations? Right after the rollover? Three months later? Six months later? Other?

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), April 04, 1999

Answers

If panic sets in late in fall, you made need food and other store bought items much earlier. If the power, phones, transportation ect. fail, I think it will take a few weeks after the rollover. So the answer is before and after.

-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

Yes, I could never work out what the baby was all about. Or the obelisk.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 04, 1999.

Definitely through 2001. I expect to have to be somewhat self sufficient, and to make more than my share of mistakes. So, I'll need all the cushion I can have.

On the other hand, to be ready by the end of October, 1999 at the outside latest is, to put it mildly, smart, because of the chances of folks who haven't prepared "rushing" to lay in supplies of various kinds. I want to be able to stay away from stores by then.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), April 04, 1999.

Andy,

??????

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

If the public panics, or doesn't panic, but just starts to buy a few extra groceries at the end of the year, we will need our supplies by then. I anticipate some very graphic problems to occur at roll over, but also anticipate them to be fixed in short time. ie, grid, telecommunications, etc. However, due to our global economy/dependence and the number of small and medium size companies that have done little or nothing, I anticipate our supply lines grinding down very seriously by March. By that time there will be a number of things that are totally unavailable except perhaps on the black market. Just think of WalMart. I bet 90% of what is in that store (non food) is imported. I think WalMart is probably compliant, but what about those from whom they import? What about diesel shortages for ships, ships and ports being non compliant, trucks not on the tight schedules that they run today. I do expect the trucks to run come hell or high water. This country runs on trucks and every truck with tires will be needed to transport goods. This will be even more critical if planes and trains are not running. My number one concern is spelled "supply lines" and as it will take some time for the dominoes to quit falling, it will take time to set them up again. If EVERYONE in this nation were tested and certified compliant, there are still so many unknown, unthought of things, that are going to rear their ugly heads and kick us in the butt. At the very LEAST the next 3 to 5 years are going to be a pain in the butt and a real lesson in patience as we have to sort through screwed up billings,hospital and medical records, etc. For that reason, I am now dealing with cash and have turned in credit cards and gotten a letter from them stating I owe no money and account is closed!! I just don't want to have to deal with all that crap. I am much more capable of dealing with where the next meal is coming from, or patching some one up who has been in an accident, etc., than I am dealing with the .bureaucracy ......even when its working.

Got lots of Excedrine ??

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

2010 was much better.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 04, 1999.

Andy, the baby was symbolism representing the rebirth of mankind, and the obelisk represented knowledge. (HAL+1)=IBM

-- MoVe Immediate (MVI@hal.com), April 04, 1999.

I think Taz is on the right track here - my gut tells me that it will be worse than Taz outlines however - we are just too dependent on imports, where and how are we going to get petroleum to run the trucks? Re-open Texas wells - yep, but that takes time and resources and an infrastructure - all of which we will have run out of. Cranking up the nation under these conditions will try Job's patience - like Taz I am personally simplifying my life as much as possible over the next few months. The credit cards are all gone (except for one simple VISA debit card), the 911 is sold, the bicycles have been bought, the job has been left to get my sticky mitts on my 401K and get it the hell out of the stock market (yes I will have to swallow the penalties), I'm claiming 9 dependents on my tax this year as I don't expect to get my usual refund in April 2000, a new job has been found paying more than the old comfortable one so there is a silver lining, a property has been rented in the burbs, backing on to a golf course (may come in handy for my victory garden), weapons will be bought, alliances have been made (my mate knows how to plant things in this neck of the woods), water is being stockpiled, ditto food, luxuries are being sold in the classifieds, the Rolex is going, it will buy me 20 gold eagles now at $290 an ounce, warm clothes are being bought at Ross Dress For Less (great Timberland boots for $30 now), cycling to work, the money saved on petrol and insurance and lube jobs etc. is buying barter items, books are being read and stored, Guinness is being religiously stockpiled in a secret cache - the list goes on and on.

I've changed my mind, a coupla months ago I was going to go walkabout at rollover. Now I will be working at a large Data Centre at midnight 2000. As a computer pro of 21+ years I just don't want to miss this. I want to be at the sharp end and see what the hell happens first hand. Normally I work the weekend night shift with 15 other souls making sure that this entity works worldwide. On the big night there will be 200 other suckers on duty with me - where they are going to go I don't know, the building is only so big. The vast majority will have no clue what is going to happen. We will see.

Course I could be wrong.

2001 - ......buy another Porsche, another Rolex, breath a sigh of relief, get sucked back into the American Dream....

NOT.

If y2k has taught me one thing up to now it's that posessions are essentially worthless - there are far more important things in life.

I suspect we will all learn this the hard way in the near future.

Later,

Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 04, 1999.

For what it's worth, an excerpt from this upcoming story from ComputerWorld - April 5, 1999

Foreign Supply Failure Worries Drug Makers

(Excerpt)

"About 80% of raw materials needed to produce drugs come from outside the U.S, according to the Senate Special Committee on Year 2000 Preparedness. For example, 70% of the world's insulin supply comes from Denmark.

More than half of U.S. drug companies are concerned about supplies from Asia and Japan, according to a survey by the Washington-based Pharmaceutical Research Manufacturers of America (PhRMA). They fear telecommunications and power sources will fail and curtail raw material shipments."

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

Good Grief Andy. You're really prepared! And I thought we were prepared! But I agree with you totally about getting sucked into being dependent on almost anything that I should, or could do for myself. Luckily I had depression parents and learned a lot of skills, which I quit using because the JIT way was so easy, but I never forgot them, just a little brushing up was needed.

Frankly, I don't think the impact will be felt immediately. I'm more worried about six months later and into the first six months of 2001. I'm irritated that I was so blind to the fragility of technology, but I've never panicked over having to change my life. I see life as an interesting, ongoing story, and I like to observe and think about the resfults of actions by others, and myself. Like Tevya (sp) in Fiddler on the Roof, "on one hand, but on the other hand."

Just before I found out about Y2K last October, (we thought it was only about our PC) we did a very dumb thing. We owned a piece of property with an old house and a perfect, mint condition, 14' cistern on it. We were renovating the house for our retirement home, and like dummies, we had tons of gravel hauled in and filled the cistern. When I found out about Y2K, I was horrified at what we'd done. Then we just howled and laughed at shooting ourselves in the foot and paying to have it done. I now have the best and deepest root cellar in the country.

"For the person who feels, life is a tragedy. For the person who thinks, life is a comedy." Don't know who said that, but for me, it's both.

-- gilda jessie (jess@listbot.com), April 04, 1999.

Andy:

Gotta love it. "Possessions are essentially worthless." That's why Andy's buying bicycles, property, weapons, food, water, gold, clothes, barter items, books, guinness, "the list goes on and on."

Uh, Andy, those sound suspiciously like possessions.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 04, 1999.

Some time ago I read that Texas law requires capped oil wells to have the borehole filled with concrete. Can anyone confirm/deny?

If it's true, reopening those wells is not an option.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), April 04, 1999.

Even if the infrastructure doesn't fail in a major way, think "materials". Industrial diamonds for drilling, chromium for alloys, enzymes for paper, etc., etc. A great deal of the exotic stuff required for even a low level of technology requires imports from places like South Africa, Russia, etc. Think replacement bearings for power plants and railroads, platinum for catalytic processes, etc. IMHO, even if nothing major happens at year end, by the time we get to 2001, most of our technology is toast and we'll have to get by with scavenging for parts.

-- Ivan (ivan1776@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

Ivan:

I think your use of the word 'toast' is misleading you a little bit. As currently used materials become harder to get, the price rises. As the price rises, it becomes more economical to use substitutes, or build products differently in various ways. Indeed, this pattern is happening continuously, and always has been.

It's very true that these various substitutes might be less suitable or less efficient. The quality of life gradually diminishes until appropriate repairs or workaround can be brought to bear. But this is a long way from my idea of toast.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 04, 1999.

Flint, You're right up to a point. I should have said "high technology". My background is engineering and I guess that was my mindset. For example, the silicon (chip) industry is "toast" in my opinion, because there will not be easy "workarounds" to substitute for the exotic materials used in the processes. The majority of chips are manufactured offshore anyway. The ramp up to any new technological economy depends on brains that are trained in certain things. Old farts like me still remember real engineering (maybe). The new generation (electrical) engineers I see today can look stuff up in an IC catalog, but would be hard-pressed to design stuff with baling wire and bubble gum. There are other hi-tech areas that will be "toast" also hampered by lack of certain crucial substances. Historically, technology in civilization evolved with the discovery of various materials and processes involving these materials - stone age, bronze age, iron age, to steel, machinery, industry (which accelerated the division of labor and specialization) then to electronics, fiber optics, etc. Sorry to be so long winded, but I've been following this forum for a while, but have as yet to see a discussion along these lines.

-- Ivan (ivan1776@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

Rotate stock! very important.

-- Guinness Guzzler (rot@t.e), April 04, 1999.

"I think your use of the word 'toast' is misleading you a little bit. As currently used materials become harder to get, the price rises. As the price rises, it becomes more economical to use substitutes, or build products differently in various ways. Indeed, this pattern is happening continuously, and always has been.

It's very true that these various substitutes might be less suitable or less efficient. The quality of life gradually diminishes until appropriate repairs or workaround can be brought to bear. But this is a long way from my idea of toast."

No, this is toast. I would imagine that you have some idea as to how much money and resources it takes to bring a product to market. Where are the exceptions going to be made? Safety? Yep!

You use the word "appropriate." Appropriate is totally dependant upon circumstances. When does appropriate become dangerous. How many lives are worth keeping up the status quo?

-- d (d@dgi.old), April 04, 1999.

Flint, You're right up to a point. I should have said "high technology". My background is engineering and I guess that was my mindset. For example, the silicon (chip) industry is "toast" in my opinion, because there will not be easy "workarounds" to substitute for the exotic materials used in the processes. The majority of chips are manufactured offshore anyway. The ramp up to any new technological economy depends on brains that are trained in certain things. Old farts like me still remember real engineering (maybe). The new generation (electrical) engineers I see today can look stuff up in an IC catalog, but would be hard-pressed to design stuff with baling wire and bubble gum. There are other hi-tech areas that will be "toast" also hampered by lack of certain crucial substances. Historically, technology in civilization evolved with the discovery of various materials and processes involving these materials - stone age, bronze age, iron age, to steel, machinery, industry (which accelerated the division of labor and specialization) then to electronics, fiber optics, etc. Sorry to be so lenthy, but I've been following this forum for a while, but have as yet to see a discussion along these lines.

-- Ivan (ivan1776@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

Sorry about the double post. Twitchy mouse finger.

-- Ivan (ivan1776@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

those of you who expect trucks to save us, consider that Akron, the HOME of Rubber in the US, has not had ONE consumer tire built in it for YEARS. The only tires built there are:

1) Racing tires

2) Prototype tires

I am unaware of a tire that is made in the US. I could be wrong, but....

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (reinzoo@en.com), April 04, 1999.

d:

I think we're talking about different timescales here. I absolutely agree with you that the first month after rollover, we're going to see some wild kludges, hotwiring, and the like. Safety will be dropped immediately. So will reliability, security, maintenance, monitoring, stuff like that. *Anything* to get the damn system back up and doing something.

But the question kicking off this thread was asking about 2001 and later, not immediate rollover problems. To me, this question shifts the focus from programming/engineering patches to longer range economic adaptation. I think the issues here are like, how many different raw materials do we import because it's cheaper, and how many do we import because there is no domestic source at all? What products rely on which materials that might be unobtainable, and what alternatives might we find to perform an analogous *function* (change the function, design new products, whatever)? Is it really true that the IC has no substitute and cannot be fabricated domestically? In that case, to what degree might we expect to have to revert to more manual methods?

When I look at these issues, 2 to 10 years down the road, I don't see toast. Given time, people tend to be pretty imaginative.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 04, 1999.

Awww, come on Chuck... Amerikkka is just fine, don't you watch movies? Oui will fix everything, we can hire people from other countries and pay them pathetic wages. Hell, we can take advantage of the rest of the world forever without paying our dues. Hell, if we become too lazy to procreate cloning can take over. Our self gratifying lie - festyle will last forever.

-- d (d@dgi.old), April 04, 1999.

Flint, For the most part I agree with you. Potentially the future is very bright, although radically different. Finding workarounds in current technology will be very tough, in many cases. The potentially bright aspect is, however, that we'll step back and reassess what it is we're trying to accomplish and come at it in a totally different way. Take, for example, housing. The knowhow (and materials) exist today to build structures that are enormously energy efficient, fireproof and able to withstand tornade-force winds (insulated concrete domes). Personally, I think that great strides will be made in biotech (again, available materials), radically different food production (would anyone want to depend on the 3 or 4 hybrid seed companies again?), radically different power sources (look what our establishment did to the guys who discovered "cold fusion"), such as fuel cells and Tesla-like devices. Of course, to have a "bright" future requires that we have rule of law and personal freedom and not some local or global command economy.

-- Ivan (ivan1776@aol.com), April 04, 1999.

I'm amazed that people still can't figure out how Tesla did his "tricks" decades after. We deserve this.

-- d (d@dgi.old), April 04, 1999.

Come on flint, as usual you are twisting my words. I've divested myself of my house and my car and my watch and my high end camera gear and all the other junk that we all accumulate. I said I was trying to simplify things. I have succeeded in this. The "possessions" that you cited are worth perhaps one twentyeth of what I'm "worth" at this point in time. The rest is being diversified. But you knew all that didn't you. Sheesh!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 04, 1999.

Guinness guzzler,

I seem to rotate the stock with no problem - that's my big worry!!!

Flint,

I'm renting a property in anticipation of a decline in property values in due course - when the time is right I will be able to plunge in if the diversification strategy has worked. And if you regard gold as a possesion, I don't. It's more akin to a gun - it's a weapon my friend.

Later, Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 04, 1999.

Andy:

I'm pleased that your life has become simpler, and left you more flexible. And I'm glad you feel better about it, too.

I was (poorly, I admit) simply pointing out that you haven't by any means divested yourself of your possessions, you have simply rearranged them. As you say, your worth hasn't changed, it has only become more liquid.

Unless you contributed a whole lot to charity and I missed that part?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 04, 1999.

Fair enough I've rearranged things. But believe me life is a lot simpler. No more car bills, insurance, taxes. No more house bills, insurance, mortgage, taxes. No more credit card bills to pay. Etc. To me things are MUCH simpler and I can move at a moment's notice (bug out is the parlance) if I have to. As for charity, my preparations if needed will no doubt be of use to friends and family down the road.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), April 04, 1999.

As I've pointed out on some of Mr. Decker's posts, the issue is not *whether* we will eventually recover, but, bluntly, how to keep my family safe and healthy *while* we recover.

How long will recovery take? I don't have the foggiest idea. I'm a salesman. Now I run an employment agency. I don't expect that industry to survive through the end of next year, to put it mildly. Unless we get "drafted" to keep track of and to interview all those people out of work who will be hired to run "manual" workarounds... (only kidding, I'd be lost without my computer at work).

I expect to start drawing on my preps as early as November, and thoughout 2001, unless the government and business really have pulled off the miracle they claim.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), April 04, 1999.

Dear Tom ,

The law you refer to is a federal law enforced by the Bureau Of land Management

The entire wellbore is not filled with cement it is set in "plugs" at different intervals though out the wellbore .These "plugs" are in 100 foot lenghts.

When we reenter one of these wells the plugs have to be drilled out with a drilling rig in place with all that entails .It is not an easy task but it can be done at present .

After Y2K it could become impossible .:o(

I have worked in the oilfields for 30 years I hope this answered your question . :o)

-- Mike (mickle2@aol.com), April 05, 1999.

Chuck - Night Driver: One of the largest Goodyear tire plants is here at Lawton, Okla. Also, there's another tire plant in Ardmore, OKla - Uniroyal I believe. They are the area's largest employer - other than the artillery center at Ft. Sill. I do not know where the "ingredients" for the tire mfg comes from.

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), April 05, 1999.

jeanne:

Thanks. Hate it when I'm quite that ignorant!!

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (reinzoo@en.com), April 05, 1999.

Andy: How long does Guinness keep before you (regretfully :0 ) have to "dispose" of it?

I think there will be problems well into 200x? Just one little example: If crops don't get planted spring/summer of 2000, what to eat in fall winter 2000, spring summer 2001?

But, I'm OK -- I still have a K&E slide rule and a book of log tables.

-- A (A@AisA.com), April 05, 1999.

>> If crops don't get planted spring/summer of 2000, what to eat in fall winter 2000, spring summer 2001?

My concern, also. All the more reason to stock up on food now, for two years minimum. Not expensive storage food. Bulk foods, grains, beans, seeds for growing and sprouting, all are cheap now. Even if there is not famine in 2001 (as some predict), with supply chain disruptions, food prices in 2001 and after could still double, triple or more.

-- Debbie (dbspence@usa.net), April 05, 1999.

Andy,

Before you start planting your garden on the golf course you may want to find out what types of chemicals they have used to keep their fairways so nice and green. Golf courses are notorius for using vast quantities of herbicides/pesticides/fertilizers to keep their courses in good condition. I have no idea how these chemicals will effect the edibility of the products you grow in your garden.

-- Never (Sniff@gift.fish), April 05, 1999.

Over the past years we have increasingly grown into a "service economy," (e.g. imperial-colonial system.) If you read Dan Glickman's testimony to the Senate y2k Committee, you will note that he acknowledges that 40% of our fruit and veggies are now imported. A great deal of our meat, wheat, etc. now comes from South America, Canada and Australia. Most of this produce is imported through shipping (non-compliant.) Once it gets here, it is distributed by truck (diesel availability?) or train (embedded chips.)

Not to worry - we can produce most of this here at home, (if some of the ag-based infrastructure can be raissed form the dead.) Ah, did you say rural areas will be shorted if there are power and gas problems? (Expendable - biggest payoffs in restoring to high population areas.) BBBBBuuuuut, how will farmers run their irrigation pumps? tractors? swathers? move raw produce to market? Obtain the inputs necessary for production? When you deal with the growth of living things, (crops, livestock,) inability to water and feed means the end of life/production.

Consider a dairy of 400 head. 2000 rolls around and no power. 400 maids a milking? If prolonged, more likely it will be dig big pits and shoot like they did during the depression and in Australia.

Tsok, all of the rest of us will have REALLY BIG gardens and HUNT and TRAP off the land. Huuuuuummmm, yeh. I am not sure I want my family's entire nutritional well-being dependent upon my skills as a wheat farmer and weird weather patterns like La Nina. Unfortunately, it is a fact - feeding today's population levels can no longer be accomplished without the technology of the last century.

The urban/suburban farm/ranch disconnect is horrific. All true wealth is resources (minerals, timber, soil, water.) The economy of "value added" and service providers is stacked upon its foundation like a game of Jenga - only that domestic foundation is crumbling from lack of support. It has been moved off-shore with our mills, foundaries and factories.

I truly hope this scenario is at the extreme. If it is not, we may be in for some very lean years.

-marsh (employed in the ag sector)

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), April 06, 1999.