The Psychology of Panic By Solveig Singleton March 31, 1999

On March 22, George Washington University sponsored "The Social Psychology of the Y2K Problem: Denial, Disaster, or Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?" Speakers offered different perspectives on Y2K. Will the panic be worse than the problem? Should we expect leadership on Y2K to come from the president, the vice president, or Y2K czar John Koskinen?

Jerrold Post, the Director of the Political Psychology Program at GWU, claimed that Y2K will create a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy of problems. He classified those who prepare for Y2K into three groups:

* Prudent Planners, who save extra food, water and cash.

* Moderate Survivalists, ordinary people who are buying guns, moving to rural areas, and making substantial preparations. But they have no ideological agenda. * Extremists, who see in Y2K the fulfillment of some ideological vision of a societal collapse or "end-time." He argued that even if most people are Prudent Planners, their moderate activities could be enough to stress the banking system's capacity to supply cash. Andrea Maloney Schara of the Georgetown Family Center -- who has written for us before -- said that to deal with the threat of Y2K panic, one must understand what panic is. Hyper- alarmism and denial begin, she said, when people are flooded by negative messages from the amygdala, a part of the brain that generates negative feelings. But fear and denial interfere with rational problem-solving based on facts. But, she argued, only about ten percent of the population is likely to calm down and consider the facts. Most blindly trust authority, and a few have a strong negative reaction to authority. Given that Clinton and other techno-clueless politicos might themselves be unable to judge Y2K dangers based on the facts, the greatest hope for effective Y2K problem-solving will come from grassroots self-selected leaders. Schara suggested that entertainment figures like Oprah and the upcoming Y2K movie are likely to do more than political leaders to get people to confront Y2K -- messages from entertainers and others presented in a fun, positive way can convey information without triggering panic or denial. But even a public panic might be the only way to get political leaders to confront the issues. The final speaker, Paula Gordon, Director of Special Projects at RPSOL, worried that the President, Vice President and Y2K Tzar Koskinen fail to provide Y2K leadership. She argued that they failed to understand serious Y2K problems with embedded systems in power plants, chemical plants, water and fuel distribution networks, and other networks. Gordon thought that if any of these leaders addressed Y2K problem now, the impact of Y2K might be held down to a mild recession, but if they do not we face infrastructure collapse. But her obvious frustration lead me to wonder whether Schara's point -- that most people close their minds immediately in response to fear-driven, negative messages -- might be very well-taken.

-- Norm (nwo@hotmail.com), April 01, 1999

Answers

"He argued that even if most people are Prudent Planners, their moderate activities could be enough to stress the banking system's capacity to supply cash."

Sounds pretty fragile even without y2k problems.

-- hoarder (don'tbankonit@usa.broke), April 01, 1999.

No need to panic if you know what to do...

So, Solveig. What are you afraid of?

-got ground?

~C~

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), April 01, 1999.

"Should we expect leadership on Y2K to come from the president, the vice president, or Y2K czar John Koskinen?"

Strike one.

Strike Two!

Strike THREE! YER OUT!!

On that phrase "self-selected leaders"? Boy, can that cover a lot of ground! A lot might depend on whether they come from GI or DGI stock.

May you live in interesting times.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), April 01, 1999.

Again ...

Who's really panicking?

Those who "get" the myriad Y2K possibilities, or those who don't want "them" to get it?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), April 01, 1999.

There are some good points in this article. One I liked: "But fear and denial interfere with rational problem-solving based on facts." Denial is ALSO a psychological problem. We need to look at this Y2K problem coldly and rationally, and then stock up when there is a sale, not just rush out willy-nilly and grab whatever we can get off the shelves. :-)

The earlier people "get it" the better. That way we can all get past the fear and denial and get down to preparations. Too bad the government is still in fear when it comes to informing citizens.

-- Margaret (janssm@aol.com), April 01, 1999.

Government Should Tell the Truth By Solveig Singleton April 1, 1999

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch- msg.tcl?msg_id=000frL

~C~

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), April 01, 1999.

That article came from y2kculture.com. Copyright aside, it's only polite to identify the source, eh, Norm? But thanks for the kind words in any case.

-- Declan McCullagh (declan@y2kculture.com), April 02, 1999.