In the last month I have noticed that all the news releases are very optomistic that y2K will be of little consequence - just a "bump in the road". However when I read Russ Kelly's Experts site I was startled to see that some had revised their rankings for March upward and those that were more optomistic had revised theirs downward only slightly. I am confused. Do you still believe that, on a scale of 1-10, y2k will be an 8.5. Thanks for all the information you have posted in the past.

-- Nadine Zint (nadine@hillsboro.net), March 31, 1999

Answers

Nadine, It seems to me that it varies from day to day. One day I am very optimistic and I am only at a 3 or 4. Most of the time I really doubt myself and yet I still prepare. I don't know why. There seems to be equal amounts of information on both sides. I have not headed for the hills yet and can not afford to move so I am hoping for the best. I live in a small town in Texas near a small lake. I can not afford to prepare for more than about 6 months although I will try my best for more. No amount of happy-face government reports can help calm my nerves. I worry alot for my children and I have to make sure they eat. If the poop hits the poopblower will these guys be there for my family and I. I seriously doubt it. I believe they will be tucked away,safe,warm,hydrated,and fed. I prepare a little more each day and hope to God it is "just a bump in the road".~{:^(

-- shellie (shellie@hotmail.com), March 31, 1999.

Nadine:

I don't believe any governmental spin on Y2K.

Top Score: TEN!

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), March 31, 1999.

Well, the thing about all the news releases that are very optimistic that Y2k will be of little consequence is that they haven't been accompanied by the sort of verifiable factual evidence to support that optimism that I would expect if they were all on the up-and-up.

>Do you still believe that, on a scale of 1-10, y2k will be an 8.5.

You mean, like "Are you _still_ beating your spouse?"

I didn't in the first place, and don't now, but that's not really a reflection of my opinion of recent optimistic news releases.

-- No Spam Please (No_Spam_Please@anon_ymous.com), March 31, 1999.

I feel strongly that things will be bad.

There is a lot of valid evidence that the initial direct bugs that are called y2k will NOT be that severe. B6y saying that, I risk being called a poly. But don't say that until you have heard me out.

Variations of this news have been used over the last month as "spin" that implies no direct y2k effects. We all know this is nonsense.

When y2k does hit, it will hit in the 3-6 range. This will be way worse that the general population expects. It will be less than the hard core doomers expect. Remember that the Titanic was sunk by a series of loose rivets. After the fact, it was imagined that the Titanic was doomed by a 300 foot long gash. In a similar way, these initial "3-6" events will have consequences. And consequences that have consequences. plus the intense puplic reaction of people not expecting ANYTHING at all.

My sense in that anything worse than a "2" will slid into a "9" by the natural turn of events. Go watch "Titanic" again. All those people who were skipping around the deck, kicking the ice around, who were sure that everything was OK. I don't think we will ever have an initial event that says "we are all doomed". That happens later.

And I am certain that things will be worse than a "2".

So yes, put me in the hard core crowd. I just don't expect it all to happen in one wild week.

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), April 01, 1999.

I feel that without independent 3rd party verification of y2k remediation in the critical utilities such as Electricity,Telecomunications,Water and Sanitation,Gas and fuel that we are heading for a definite 9.

We can't trust any newsreleases these organizations give until it is verified by an indepedent outside party this is what the government was supposed to be, but they are bought off by big money. These organizations are mostly private corporations funded with stockholders funds. They fear losing stock value and access to all that yuppie 401k cash to give an honest accessment. No penalties for liying except the crash of society as we Know it.

After years of corporations and Government agencies spending billions of dollars and they still can't claim complience validation by an independent outside party tells me were heading for real big trouble.

Remeber the three mile Island accident 20 years ago when they said that it was contained and there was no body exposed to radiation. This turned out to be not true 1000's of people surrounding the plant had symptoms of radiation sickness in the days following that accident many came down with cancer. It also turned out that the core of that reactor melted down by 90% and was almost a china syndrome.

Y2k wont be a small bump in the road it will be more like 100's of three mile Island accidents and 1000's of food riots all over the world happening at the same time. It does'nt have to get that bad but world leaders are in denial and they don't have a clue. Honest no bullsh-t leadership is the only way to prevent society from facturing. When the lights and phone go down hard in the next several months so will our trust and confidence in the leaders who are entrusted by our votes to a sacred position of resposiblity to watch out for our welfare and safety. As I see it there is no leader with the grapes to tell us honestly that it will not be good and that we need to mobilize our nations resources like an effort similar to the manhattan project and the victory gardens. And they need to Present a y2k plan for continuty of community in the event of catistrophic utility failure and drill now so many lives will be spared. We need to personally prepare like war,and hope it doesn't turn into one.

Y2k Aware mike

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), April 01, 1999.

I think the both the Pollys and gloom-n-doomers are right, in a sense.

I think the Pollys are right that computer problems will not be as bad as some suggest. Personally, I think that computer problems in general-purpose computers will only be about 10% (wild guess), and embedded controllers even lower (2% is a figure I have heard in the past). When Polly say that Y2K is no big deal, when considering only individual systems, they are quite right, IMHO.

But...I think the gloom-n-doomers are right too. The world is a very fragile place in some regards, namely warfare and the global economy. I think it is reasonable to be concerned that the minimal computer problems will be sufficient to halt the "irrational exuberance" on Wall Street. With a Big Bang!

Electricity concerns me most. What will we do if Dan Blather can't tell us what to think? Electricity travels near the speed of light. As an illustration, note that a phone conversation to anywhere in the world takes place without delay (unless you are communicating via satellite, in which case there is a delay) since electrons flow through wires near the speed of light. The ability of computers to balance problems on "the grid" at that speed is limited - the ability of humans to do so is even more limited. 1-Jan-2000 00:00:00 GMT will be very "interesting" for the electric companies. Sadly, rail- systems are expected to be part of the minority of broken computer systems on 1-Jan-2000. Please note that it takes a mile-long train to support a coal-fed plant in a major city EACH DAY.

The above pertains only to problems in Western nations (excluding the "doomed" country of Italy). Some "Developing Nations" (PC) are SOL. Desalination plants in the Middle East may be in for BIG trouble.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), April 01, 1999.

Yes, do still think that y2k will be an 8.5, or in the 7 to 10 range. I think the problems will start today and continue into next year. However I don't think these early problems will be visible. I think things will seem fine fo a while, then start to slide. My gut feeling is that things will go downhill slowly from here on out. I hope not, but this is what I belive. :( Good luck everyone!! :) Hope and Pray that it's better than I think!

-- Crono (( Crono@timesend.com), April 01, 1999.

I feel like Anon. However, I also think that even though things are going to go down in a BIG way, that we are very resiliant and will bounce back "relatively" quickly. There are too many who know too much to let things just stay down for long. I think that after the dust settles . . . at least in smaller communities where there isn't so much confusion (starvation, panic, disease, etc.) . . . that people will begin to rebuild power grids, telecom, whatever, even if it has to be from the ground up.

-- winna (??@??.com), April 01, 1999.

I have two problems here. As a programmmer and Y2K remediator I see how several of my clients are dealing with the Y2K bug and I am appalled by their apathy and total disregard for their own or their clients continued prosperity. I see lots of public statements about how they are progressing but internally I see Y2K remediation, upgrades and testing being pushed back or mired in so much redtape hogwash that none of the repairs will ever be completed in time.

As an individual, I can't get passed the above so as I prepare for Y2K my preparations move more and more towards a 10 event.

If what I am experiencing is an example what is going on nationwide throughout other industries we are in SERIOUS trouble. In my mind I continue to hope for a 4-7 event but in my heart I fear a 8 - 10 event is more likely.

ExCop

-- ExCop (ExCop@excop.com), April 01, 1999.

I agree with all the answers. Y2k is here, it has started. The slide is slow, almost unnoticable but moving none the less. As we get into the the second half of this year and the first of next the momentum will increase as computers interact with other computers. Data will be corrupt, systems will crash.

Combine that with the herd quickly waking up ( I think a major media frenzy will occur) and a stampede of panic. This is when we will see bank runs and fighting in the food aisles. (Like cows in the field they heard the flies buzzing around but did not pay attention.) People are aware of Y2k but not concerned. When the media frenzy starts, these same people will think 1. they have been wrong 2. they have to catch up on those that have been preparing. This will cause a 5-6.

If we are without power, water, communications on Jan. 1, I think we will go right into a 8-9.

Or nothing will happen except a slight glich and a little inconvenience. Who really knows? No one knows the answer until we all get there.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), April 01, 1999.

I tend to agree with David. I would like to add one more thing. I think y2k will be denied, denied, denied, even after the fact. Unless there is a point that admitting y2k problems becomes advantageous to a corp. or gov. (i.e. to save their behinds) They will deny it until there is no other alternative.

Human error will be blamed for anything they can get away with & as many 'internal' problems as can be gotten away with will be hidden forever if possible.

Of course this is assuming that the media stays it's course, if a major shift comes, the panic begins. Otherwise, I seriously still doubt wide scale panic until people are hungry, and other problems surface, such as rapid inflation/deflation.

In so far as recovery time, socially I think it' a crap shoot. It just depends on how people react. Economically at least 4-5 years. Because 1/3 of the world is already on shaky ground economically, and the rest will be in the same boat as us (& worse).

Of course, I'm just guessing. ;-)

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), April 01, 1999.