'Looks like D.C. Weather report may be about to appear online, if yesterday's posting by Corey on the comp.software.year-2000 newsgroup is any clue.

(Excerpt from a posting by Cory Hamasaki)

The state of Y2K is that everyone now understands it. Everyone from the checkout lady at the grocery store (she's watching what people buy) to the futurists employed by think tanks (they're always late to the table, sorry to say.)

I had a chance to take Ed Yourdon's pulse last week and I'm happy to say that it's nice and strong. -beat- -beat- -beat-. Ed will be around to scare/warn the troops for a while.

In the U.S., it looks like society has stratified into a few tens of millions of Y2K'ers, perhaps a hundred million denial, thick-heads, dead-heads, and an equal number poised to stampede when Ko-Skin-em gives the sign.

The questions are when will the stampede start and where is the dividing line between those who can look out their window at a Y2K civil war and wonder what's happening and those who will see the lights going out and rifle flashes and slap their heads and go, "DOH."

The first group, the will-never-get-its, will go peacefully to their final reward, and that's fine. Hopefully that group includes more grumpy, nattering, old fools who wear hats while they drive 55 in the left lane and fewer slim, nubile, compliant beach babes.

The second group, the Oh-my-gawds, will cause the trouble. They're the ones who are at the Safeway 2 hours before a snowstorm, grabbing 3 weeks worth of eggs and milk instead of one carton of each. Why do they do that, what happens to the eggs and milk that they don't consume?

These greed-crazed, fear-driven, panic-filled people are being set up by Ko-Skin-em and the other professional platitude spewers to form into a flash-mob.

As the singularity approaches, it will become impossible to spin the denial any further. They covered up the problems at PhyCor and Oxford Medical for months, a year, but at some point, it was not possible to conceal the problems any longer.

Once the air supply is cut off, that is to say, money, electronic payments, financial reports, the history of PhyCor and Oxford Medical shows that the enterprise melts down in 6 months to a year or so.

This isn't a big deal if you have an escape plan, a Plan-B or Plan-C. If you insist on being a butt-head, you'll go down with the ship. If you don't have a well-lubricated exit plan, you'll be spitting and kicking with the mob rather than walking calmly out a side door.

If you're reading this in c.s.y2k, mull this over, a couple of our regulars have established a Masada. Others have alluded to a more mobile approach.

I don't put a high probability on needing either but the probability for me is higher than an automobile accident.

(End of excerpt)

QUESTION: Any idea what Cory means when he says "a couple of our regulars have established a Masada?"

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), March 31, 1999

Answers

Thanks for the post.FM

Masada.Mountain fortress in the Judean Desert,overlooking the Dead Sea.In AD73,after a two year seige,the Zealots,a Jewish Sect who were defending the fortress,committed mass suicide rather than surrendering to the Romans.

Lets hope it does prove to be an apt analogy.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), March 31, 1999.

...sniff.. sniff.. What the hell? Oh, its another steaming pile of doomer dung, fresh off the CH compost heap.

-- Sanitation Committee (flush@flush.com), March 31, 1999.

"...sniff.. sniff.. What the hell? Oh, its another steaming pile of doomer dung, fresh off the CH compost heap. "

We have a WINNER! (Drum roll) Sanitation Committee is being proudly presented with both the "Ass" and "Hole-in-ground" awards! The crowd silences as they wait to see if he can tell which is which!

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), March 31, 1999.

...another member of Heavens Gate strolls into the fray.

"So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life." -- Gary North

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), March 31, 1999.

....and another dim bulb on the marquee of life feebly casts its light... could that be that renowned doofus, Anonymous99? (crowd hushes)

-- Sanitation Committee (flush@flush.gov), March 31, 1999.

Ahh, those folks at Masada were just Branch Davidian wanna-bes.

-- Spidey (in@jam.com), March 31, 1999.

Y2K Amateur,

Will you ever offer anything of substance?
Maybe this is just your way of getting that ATTENTION you missed out on years ago.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), March 31, 1999.

The trolls are the true control freaks. They can't imagine a world without toasters. And as any psychologist will tell you, control freaks are deeply insecure individuals. The trolls on this forum are accomplishing the cyber equivalent of throwing salt over their shoulders--"shoo, ghosts, shoo." It's like shaking your fist at the Enola Gay. Looks cool, then....

-- Spidey (in@ja.com), March 31, 1999.

Is Cory using sarcasm or humor when he refers to Ed Yourdon

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), March 31, 1999.

Y2K Pro, who said anything about Gary North. Cory's not a GN follower, he's a veteran mainframer.

-- Shimrod (shimrod@lycosmail.com), March 31, 1999.

Cory's usual hyperbole.

-- doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

Pollyannas ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS attack the messenger! They have NOTHING ELSE to offer. And they know it.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), March 31, 1999.

OK, I'll offer something.

When was the last time you saw someone buying 3 weeks worth of eggs and milk because of a snowstorm?

Much of what Cory writes may be tongue-in-cheek, but I think he doesn't realize how many are taking his word as gospel.

-- Doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

Doomslayer, I HAVE SEEN people fight over a loaf of bread when they were told a snowstorm is coming. I have seen people run over each other with shopping carts as they buy up provisions for a storm. I have witnessed shoving, pushing, cursing and yelling as people prepare for a snow.

NOw you know what is so terrible? All of these things happened in Kentucky and our snows never amount to much. No one unprepared would starve in a Kentucky snowstorm. Yet, these people panic as if it were they were going to be snowed in for weeks.

When things get rough and the people start waking up to Y2k, it will be very ugly. I want to be safe in my well stocked home so I do not have to be out with the herds.

I suggest you go out to your local WalMart this Sat. (an excellent day since many will be buying their Easter dinner preparation, Easter Candy and outfitting all the kiddies with new Easter clothes) and stay and try to shop for a while. Now compund that by a frenzy of panic buying and you will have a very slight idea of what the future could be like.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), March 31, 1999.

Go to Wal-Mar? No way! That place is a zoo no matter what day it is!

-- doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

Good point Linda.

If people prepare, there is no need to "feel" panic, or act upon that feeling.

But trolls don't understand that now.

Perhaps later.

My wish for them (trolls and prep avoiders) is to experience their own individual 7.0 lifestyle earthquake, before the Y2K rollover, so they can viscerally understand simultaneous complexity and simplicity, first hand. Complexity, as in the strangest things impact a supply chain and infrastructure breakdown in a personal earthquake situation. Simplicity, in understanding that the basics, are what is important -- water, food, heat, shelter, friends & family, etc.

Then they might be able to offer valuable wisdom based upon personal experience. Or not, if they refuse to learn by their mistakes.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), March 31, 1999.

How do you handle a 7.0 earthquake?

Don't live in an earthquake area!

-- doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

Cory lives in the Wash DC area- and I can tell you from having personally lived there myself, that at the first hint of snow- all the little old ladies hop into their chevies and drive to the Safeway and buy it out of EVERYTHING! no joke- the most pitiful thing is a 2 inch snowfall in a place like metro Wash DC, so......yes- I have no problem whatsoever imagining the hordes descending on the stores for their rice and spam.

-- anita (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), March 31, 1999.

Think you missed the point about the Masada. Suicide was not the point, the fact that they held off thousands of the Roman legion for 2 years was a feat! Definitely good planning and preparation!

-- Sue (deco100@aol.com), March 31, 1999.

How do you handle a 7.0 earthquake? Don't live in an earthquake area! -- doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

HOW STUPID! There are always ice storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, or something else. Y2k is GLOBAL, stupid doosmslayer! Where are you going to live?

-- none (none@none.none), March 31, 1999.

none (none@none.none),

I agree with your general drift, but think you may have missed a better line taking off from the Masada idea to answer the question of how to hnndle the Year 2000 Problem ...

Don't live into the Year 2000.

-- No Spam Please (No_Spam_Please@anon_ymous.com), March 31, 1999.

er folks, fellow yourdonites, you are arguing with children - I doubt that the oldest of the lot is 18...not worth the effort.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), March 31, 1999.

When a winter storm advisory is broadcasted up here in Michigan, the people flock to the stores. There's no way one could gather 3 weeks worth of milk or eggs, for these items are usually the first to go.

During my college years, I was very lax about cleaning my refrigerator, and milk, once opened, is lucky to last 2 weeks tops.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), March 31, 1999.

I've seen the phenomenon you are referring to at the grocery stores. Nobody is hoarding when that happens. Look a little closer at the long lines of people. Most are just getting a few things. If it wasn't for an impending storm they would have waited. Shoot, I buy milk every other day! It just happens that everyone has enough sense to know that they better get what they need before the storm hits since they may not be able to get back to the store for a few days. Now, you know that each store only has about a 72 hour supply of stuff. So, what happens when everyone does 72 hours worth of shopping at once? Duh, empty shelves. This is not panic.

-- Doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

"It just happens that everyone has enough sense to know that they better get what they need before the storm hits since they may not be able to get back to the store for a few days. Now, you know that each store only has about a 72 hour supply of stuff. So, what happens when everyone does 72 hours worth of shopping at once? Duh, empty shelves. This is not panic."

(good lord, you are skating right up to the point of this forum, doomslayer! keep your eyes open! you might glimpse it, if you don't blink!!)

Well, when your scenario happens on a nation-wide basis, there will be INTENSE panic. That's why we doomers suggest preparing early and preparing often. Like starting today. Hey, it's the JIT stuff that has us so worried in the first place - behind utilities, of course.

-- Lisa (wow@so.close), March 31, 1999.

I have no problem with preparing for emergencies, such as keeping your pantry stocked up, keeping emergency supplies, batteries, candles, etc. as The Red Cross and FEMA are recommending. But what many here are doing is telling people to stock up months or years worth of stuff. That's called hoarding and I call it panic.

-- Doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

"...what many here are doing is telling people to stock up months or years worth of stuff. That's called hoarding and I call it panic."

Perhaps, after doing their research, these people have ascertained that this is what's necessary? That's what's so intriguing about this issue. Nobody has a clue about the ramifications involved. It's going to be a constantly-evolving surprize. The "experts" just can't come clean and say "I dunno".

-- Faze the Nation (dazed@confused.com), March 31, 1999.

Doomslayer-- you write

"But what many here are doing is telling people to stock up months or years worth of stuff. That's called hoarding and I call it panic. "

I hope you've made your concerns known to the Elders in Salt Lake City. The Mormon Church and many of its adherents around the world have been recommending "hoarding" and instilling "panic" for the last hundred years. They may not realize their own iniquity in this. Your counsel may help them come to their senses.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), March 31, 1999.

Doomslayer, it's all scale and perspective, no?

As Deborah points out, you are not concerned if I hoard video games, beanie babies, golf balls, mascara or rattle-trap bass lures (the BEST, BTW)? Here, you'd decide I'm crazy, but certainly not a threat?

You only get edgy if I'm shopping for flour, mac & cheese, powdered milk?

Why? Make the distinction for me.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.still), March 31, 1999.

Doomdodo, just to set the record straight:

It's stockpiling when things are calm, hoarding when the panic has already begun!

-- none (none@none.none), March 31, 1999.

Hoarding beanie babies? That's called collecting. Not that I think that's a very sane thing to do.

As for the Mormons, they certainly don't have a monopoly on wisdom. Many of the things they do seem pretty crazy to me.

-- Doomslayer (1@2.3), March 31, 1999.

Make the distinction for me. Why you care about one type of product, but not another.

-- Lisa (go@head.now), March 31, 1999.

If all of you will turn your televisions to CNN or MSNBC and watch those deperate refugees coming across the borders of Macedonia you will see a preview of Y2K in America if it goes badly. The difference is there won't be any safe borders to cross, or any relief agencies dispensing food and water after the first week, or any tv reporters covering it, or any helpful foreign governments sending aid. And a large number of those starving desperate refugees will be armed. I think a little HOARDING is a good idea right now.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), March 31, 1999.

Doomslayer, lookit:

And you think I'm hoarding?

-- Lisa (lisa@goin.home), March 31, 1999.

Everyone will get food....they'll just have to get in line.... a long line.... starting in December sometime.

Just curious....do you think the Don't Really Get Its have many slim, nubile, beach babes? Geez I hope not.

-- Herder the Hoarder (meanwhile@the.ranch), March 31, 1999.

Doomslayer -

So when does it become hoarding? 2 weeks worth of supplies? 1 month? 3 months?

What is your own recommended level of prep?

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), March 31, 1999.