With All This Research and Analysis, Has Your Job Suffered?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I'm in advertising sales with a large NY publishing empire where the V.P. of Corporate Finance called our "little problem" "2YK" about a year ago after one of my company status inquiries. So much for this gig in late 1999-2000.
With this realization about our prepared level staring me in the face, I decided to stress my personal preparations all the more. 50%job/50% Y2K. This allowed me to really prepare thoroughly. Luckily, I'm an independent rep with no boss lurking over me.
We have many sales reps across the country with a good chunk of their income paid upfront. No one has thought about the ramifications when, in 2000, many companies our large customer base are unable to pay their invoices. Money that I'm sure is earmarked to settle the rest of our compensation packages.
-- PJC (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 29, 1999
Can you chop wood? Dig a latrine? Hunt wild game?
Advertising sales in the publishing world may not exist anymore as an occupation next year. I don't expect to be employed in my current job at this time next year.
Think you see a lot of "Will work for food" signs in NYC today? Wait till next year.
-- rick blaine (email@example.com), March 29, 1999.
It's good to be prepared for Y2K - both the real technical problem and the human reaction problem, before and after the fatal hour.. Even if there are no significant technical disruptions that touch your life, you are almost certainly going to be touched by Y2K anxiety - your own or others (probably already are if you are tuning in to this forum). Whatever Y2K movie that runs in your dreams - thriller, horror, disaster, comedy, romance, fantasy - don't forget to keep monitoring the issue closely. Find out who are the main players, the most serious forums, the most serious threads, the most articulate 'doomster' spokespersons, the most articulate 'Polyannas', the alternative thinkers, and the debates between the technicians in various fields.
There are no absolutes, the current of opinion is shifting and changing all the time. Data and credible information is hard to come by right now, but it will come in time. In the meantime, with so many dots left to join together, so many differences of opinion, even between technicians, huge demands are going to be placed on your intellectual and emotional honesty (are your feelings reasonable or symptomatic of Y2K stress/panic.
IMO, a mark of honesty is the ability to learn, to change and grow. I would imagine quite a few have run the gamut from scoffing DGI, to GI/Cassandras and on to cautious Polyannaismn. My guess is that most people, even the alarmists, will end up middle-grounders if only to avoid departing too far from the herd and being perceived as part of what the majority today still perceive as the 'real' potential Y2K problem, i.e. anxiety inducing overreaction.
If you've followed this issue over time, you will know that many people a year ago were convinced that we were heading inexorably toward meltdown, mass famine, a return to pre-industrial life. I don't think anybody uttering these views today would be taken seriously, not even at Gary North's or this forum. The nature of 'doomsterism' has changed, slowly and in some ways subtly, but it has changed, and it will continue to do so. Even diehardened diresiders are at least open to the possibility that it might not, after all, be meltdown. Many who had envisaged Y2K as an opportunity to build a new localised alternative sustainable community are having to grudgingly accept that maybe it won't be this time round.
I live in Europe and i don't think there is enough information available to judge the situation, so I veer toward a minimum level prep (= food for 6 people for 1 month). I don't believe it will be used, based on what i can glean about the US situation (mostly online). I think we're looking at glitches, inconveniences and supply chain problems, possibly inducing a minor recession. We may even see an accident or two that could cause a fire or an environmental alert, a bank closing up shop for a few days or so - not so common events that already happen today but magnified in our minds due to Y2k awareness. There is also the possibility that war and refugee crises will be more 'aktuel' than Y2K. The possibility of cumulative or domino type effects, depends on a level of technical integration that I don't believe has been achieved in reality over most of Europe (but I don't know for sure).
My tracking of the embedded systems bogeyman seems to suggest that the problem may be much less than originally feared. The recent Paula Gordon paper that has stirred up a lot of the old newbie questions originates from an old paper put online earlier last year. This paper is really outdated even in Y2K alarmist terms. The failure examples she provides have now almost achieved the status of urban legends. To my knowledge (correct me if I am wrong) there has been no independently verified investigation into the nature of these failures (were they really Y2k failures?; if so, what kind of Y2K failure? human? machine?). Most reports we see today of so-called Y2K test failures often evaporate on closer inspection or at least become highly disputable, matters of definition. There are many different types of failures out there with varying degrees of complication or recoverabilty. I would suggest for tracking purposes, Mark Frautschi equivalent paper on the same subject. He has a superior technical background and is also revising the paper and absorbing new information as it becomes available (e.g. Y2k testing, vendor statements).
Enough of my ramblings. Feeling my way through it, just like the rest of us. Good luck with your 'journey'.
-- Tickle (Tickle_yer_fancy@hotmail.com), March 30, 1999.