Infomagic Response to csy2k Poll Question, 3/26/99greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Infomagic: 30+ yrs, 8.5, 2.5, 9.0
I am considerably more pessimistic now than in any of the previous surveys. I am lowering my Eastabrook number because, after a few mind experiments, I have come to the conclusion that my preparations are not even close to enough to ensure survival. I am now rethinking my preparations with a much heavier emphasis on mobility and the use of force. Water is now my critical factor.
As for the problem itself, I have seen _no_ significant improvement (including Yourdon's about-face). If anything, I would say that the problem is _worse_ now than a year ago. All of the "great news" that we hear is, essentially, Bravo Sierra (bullshit). _Nothing_ has been done to realistically address the only remaining possible solution of contingency planning and all attempts to do so are written off as irresponsible "hoarding".
Y2K has been likened to the Titanic -- a technologically unsinkable ship with just a "slight" design flaw. In reality, it's the other way around. Y2K is the iceberg and the problem is the U.S.S. (UnSinkable Ship) Enterprise. It's the economy, stupid, and it always has been. Iceberg dead ahead, Sir,9 months and closing! And nobody's changing course (neither did the Titanic until it was too late).
It doesn't matter if we "fix" the Y2K problem (and I've already said, categorically, that we can't). It is the (realistic) perception of the general population that we _haven't_ which will grow as we get closer to the day itself. This will cause a loss of faith in both the banking system and the stock market, leading to a run on both banks and mutual funds. The biggest economic collapse in history, bar none!
Perhaps the greatest irony of all is that futile government and business (banking) attempts to avert the loss of faith is _precisely_ what will cause it. The right time to panic is when "they" say you don't need to, and that's what the sheeple will do! Just ask Henry Kissinger.
And that's just the beginning. In addition, we have other minor problems like coincident increases in sunspots and meteors. And what about Kosovo, Iraq, North Korea, Japan, internal problems in Russia? The Klinton treason with China and their actions _inside_ the United States (smuggling arms to California street gangs)? Do you really think that all of this is just coincidence?
It is said that the first person to realize the Titanic was definitely going to sink was the engineer who designed her. I say that the first to realize this was the One who designed the iceberg and put it in the right place at the right time. I was just one of His junior designers on a dozen or so systems, but I know for a fact that Y2k is just the tip of the iceberg.
y 2 0 0 0 @ i n f o m a g i c . c o m
This response was for a poll that was being taken as where one stood with regard to y2k. The question asked for:
Years of Programming Experience
along with how serious they perceived the problem to be.
-- Ray (email@example.com), March 27, 1999
Here is the original poll question asked on csy2k
All - as promised, I'll be attempting the survey again. This will be the same as the last with the three sets of questions.
Below are the previous results followed by the survey itself. For those new to the survey, there is no cutoff of the voting at 5 on the Edwards' survey. You may vote higher than 5 as the questions are purposely subjective. Commentary is welcome. Non-geeks are welcome to participate.
I would appreciate if everyone could keep the format the same;
Name, programming experience in years, Edwards vote, Eastabrook vote. Infomagic vote.
I will cutoff the voting as of midnight (US-CST) Monday, 3-29. I hope to have the results posted Tuesday. Thanks for your participation.
Period Geeks Exper Non-G Overall
2Q-1997 3.96 17.6
3Q-1997 4.20 19.7 5.75 4.30
4Q-1997 4.09 18.1 4.29 4.11
1Q-1998 4.18 19.7 4.29 4.20
2Q-1998 4.21 19.5 4.93 4.33
3Q-1998 4.23 19.6 4.77 4.36
4Q-1998 4.33 20.5 4.74 4.48
2Q-1998 3.07 3.89 3.21
3Q-1998 3.40 3.33 3.39
4Q-1998 3.17 3.53 3.30
4Q-1998 .457 .586 .506
Edwards' survey -
1 - it ain't gonna happen
3 - bump in the road, 80-hour weeks for all in 1999-2000
5 - probable collapse of economy, start hoarding now
Eastabrook survey -
5 - We're a Paul Milne, ready and (appropriately) armed for anything. (Guns for the US, bows for England, and the Skean-dhu Scotland!)
4 - Small town (1,000-5,000), nearest large town 50 miles or more. 3 months food, heat, water, whatever. Some prepared lands, seeds.
3 - Medium town (5,000-100,000), 1 month food and heat. Water access. Fair knowledge of plants, vegetable growing, garden. First-aider.
2 - Larger town (up to 1 or maybe 2 million depending on surrounds). 2 weeks food plus some basics. Computer geek with other skills.
1 - New York, Washington, London. No pantry, takeaways! A private y2k compliant helicopter brings this down a few points.
Infomagic survey -
So, in this survey, I would like to suggest a very simple score in the range of zero to one, as a decimal, to any precision you please. Zero means no significant impact (bump in the road) and one means the extinction of the human race. .5 (or .50 or .500) means you think it will be halfway between these extremes.
-- Ray (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 27, 1999.
Well, he lost credibility with me by saying Yourdon did an about-face. He should have apologized and corrected that immediately. Either it is a sloppy mistake, or he's an idiot. I haven't seen anybody evolve as well, rationally, or clearly as Mr. Ed Yourdon, who details his opinions with excellent essays and shares them with all of us. This Infomagic is not as sensible or balanced or helpful or practical as Ed Yourdon. He is more of a Misinfomajik.
I may be wrong ;-) but shouldn't he have said DeJager? instead of doling out DeJabs at Ed?
xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx
-- Leska (email@example.com), March 27, 1999.
Leska, I was a bit confused there myself.
-- Ray (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 27, 1999.
Could it have been a goon troll-impostering Infomagic?
-- Ashton (email@example.com), March 27, 1999.
Here is a link to the csy2k Thread:
-- Ray (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 27, 1999.
I think Mingham/InfoMagic had a brain burp - rather than Yourdon, he had meant to type Yardeni, who is more closely associated with economic prognostication, which is InfoMagic's emphasis.
-- Blue Himalayan (email@example.com), March 27, 1999.
And talk about contradictions! InfoMagic said: the biggest economic collapse in history bar noneHow could the biggest economic collapse in history be 'good', unless you are a radical deep ecologist (Unabomber, Earth First "back to the Pleistocene!) or a necrophiliac ?
Then Hamasaki said:
Info, I believe that you, Dr. Yourdon, SHMUEL, and myself are in near perfect alignment on the state of the IT industry.
The clueless, the horn-hairs, the CEO's have taken the world for a ride.
This game is over. There'll be a new game in town and I'm not sure what it will be. I think it could be good. I hope it's not bad. Whatever it is, it will be different.
Quite amazing really.
Here we are throwing hundres of billions of dollars at remediation, and Infomagic says we're making things worse? That our efforts are making no improvements? ALL the good news is BS? Nobody is doing contingency planning? Compliance announcements by banks will cause runs on banks? And he knows all this for a fact?
Hoo boy! If good news bit Infomagic's hand off, he'd deny he ever had a hand in the first place.
He suggests we change course, eh? He doesn't suggest a new course, I notice. I wonder if the course he'd suggest would be precisely what we're really doing?
-- Flint (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 27, 1999.
infomagic has consistently maintained that we started too late.
in light of that he believes that contingency planning was the only way to go. contingency planning at the national/financial/ industrial level is less than adequate.
exacerbating this situation is the 'spin' offered to the public on a daily basis. as we all know most people have no idea whom to believe. instead of advising the people to prepare they have been told...no big problem, a winter storm. a prepared populous is one that will *not* panic...they are not prepared.
when the light 'dawns' the public will go berserk...hence the bank runs and the crash of the markets.
many people confuse yardeni with yourdon and vice versa.
-- marianne (email@example.com), March 27, 1999.