http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990326/tc/oily2k_2.html

relevant quote:

"``Most Middle East producers have implemented programs to try and solve the problem, and Saudi Arabia is at the head of them,'' said Mohammed Mrayati, science and technology adviser for the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).

``But in many of them no contingency plans exist in case things do go wrong so we have advised them to develop measures.''

The United States recently admitted fears that its reliance on oil imports from outside the industrialized world makes it vulnerable to a supply crunch if, as predicted, computers around the globe fail to recognize the dawn of year 2000.

``Nearly 50 percent of the oil used in the U.S. comes from foreign sources, yet many of the countries have a high risk of failure,'' a Senate special committee report said this month.

Three of the top five U.S. oil suppliers -- Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria -- are up to 18 months behind in preparing for the millennium bug, the report said. Another key exporter, Kuwait, is understood to be especially far back."

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), March 26, 1999

Answers

All right, I confess, I DON'T GET IT!! How can people look at statements like this and still believe next year will be a non- event? Even if, and this is a big supposition, 95% of U.S. is on- track, foreign oil shipments cut by as little as 10% spell recession / depression in this country. I work for an automotive supplier, and I don't expect to have a job by any later than 1Q00. Mini-strikes already shut us down, I can't wait to see what gasoline and oil shortages do to demand.

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), March 26, 1999.

actually, arlin, i thought this was the relevant quote:

**``It wouldn't take more than a two percent cut in output -- 1.5 million bpd -- to dramatically alter oil market fundamentals and lead to a significant price increase,'' said Peter Bogin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) in Paris.

yep. now go through the senate report & add up the percentages of oil at risk in the u.s. it's sure a whale of a lot more than 2%.

-- Drew Parkhill/CBN News (y2k@cbn.org), March 26, 1999.

It appears that we will not be driving over that bump in the road due to a lack of gasoline. Because of the OPEC price increase and fires at two refineries in the San Francisco Bay Area, gas has gone up 30% here in the past month. A preview of things to come!

-- Incredulous (ytt000@aol.com), March 27, 1999.