Hello,

Just noticing over that now people are starting to quote June as the date where 'things can't be covered up anymore...' Wasn't that date April 1st to the 5th? Actually, before that, wasn't it January 1st to thr 4th?

If people still have posts/articles quoting those ORIGINAL critical dates, I would appreciate them. I do have info on the Euro and the travel industries' successful rollover tests...however, if no major disruptions occur from April 1st to 5th, I would LOVE copies of the posts where people were predicting they would. I do have a copy of Gary North stating on the Art Bell show that April 1st would be super-critical-day-from-heck.

Thanks for any info, and your other support. I appreciate it. Keep smiling,

Jonathan

-A computer glitch will not bring about the end of civilzation. It takes hordes of panicking people to do that.-

-- Jonathan Latimer (latimer@q-a.net), March 25, 1999

Answers

Jon-

If you're right and I'm wrong, I get to throw a big party, eat my mistake, and get teased by my neighbors for being a Chicken Little.

But if I'm right and you're wrong, you die.

The decision to prepare or not seems pretty obvious to me.

-- rick blaine (y2kazoo@hotmail.com), March 25, 1999.

"But if I'm right and you're wrong, you die."

Not true. Many folks will get to experience ClubFed shelters if Y2K is a big problem!

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@anonymous.com), March 25, 1999.

-- A computer glitch will not bring about the end of civilzation. It takes hordes of countries, businesses and civilizations that have not prepared to do that. --

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 25, 1999.

Rick, I think you are jumping the gun a tad bit. Jonathan merely made an observation that the predicted computer failures for early '99 have failed to materialize. He said nothing about whether the decision to prepare or not is prudent. Yet you jump in there with the worn out cliche "...if I'm right and you're wrong, you die" How do you know Jonathan isn't doing more preparation than you? How do you know that Jonathan isn't trying to deduce what the actual Y2K failures will be, and then prepare in a manner that will actually be benficial to himself and those around him? What makes you so sure that you will prepare correctly?

-- RobbY2K (robby2k@uno.com), March 25, 1999.

Robb - Exactly.

Rick - I tend to agree with Jonathan. Doesn't mean I'm not preparing. (As a matter of fact I'll be at the Midwest Renewable Enengy Association's 'Utility Intertie Renewables' presentation Sunday - i.e. option on, sizing of, and connecting alternative energy sources when you are connected to the grid. I have always though PV and Wind were neat, but too expensive - Y2K may provide the excuse for some new toys. The seminar and April 1 will help me make decision to pursue or not)

Y2K is a wake up call for preparedness in general. (Always stopping at the store for tonights dinner fixings is just too convenient of a trap. Heck you go right by the store...) April 1 will be here soon enough. If the geeks handle it in stride - that's a very good sign.

Good Luck jh

-- john hebert (jt_hebert@hotmail.com), March 25, 1999.

Forget Y2K are you prepared for a potential nuclear attack? Or biological warfare? I'm no longer concerned about a computer glitch, I can survive that.

-- it'sagas (it'sagas@gas.com), March 25, 1999.

Notice how completion dates keep getting pushed back?

-- Vic (Roadrunner@compliant.com), March 25, 1999.

Notice that they've quietly up the number of days of preparation from 3 to 7?

http://www.syman tec.com/sabu/n2000r/index.html

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), March 25, 1999.

OOPS. Wrong link. Here's the right one :-)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch- msg.tcl?msg_id=000dfI

And no, I don't work for Symantec. ;-)

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), March 25, 1999.

I don't think government shelters are in our future. This is only because the extent of the problem may be so massive, millions of hungry people, that even the government can't handle it. A government shelter would seem to imply feeding the people. Where are they going to get all that food? How are they going to transport and cook all that food? The government needs to prepare now for the possibility of feeding millions of starving people if the "just in time" system breaks down, because "fix on failure" is not going to work...And Jesus isn't suddenly going to appear and make a little bit of food feed a million hungry people...

We got electricity, we got gas....but we got no food. Oh joy.

Sincerely, Apple

-- Apple (villarta@itsnet.com), March 25, 1999.

Also see the recent thread:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000e7a

"Is an April 1, 1999 straw man being put into place?"

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 25, 1999.

Jonathon,

If you have posts/articles that show people are starting to quote June as the date when "things can't be covered up anymore", I'd like to see that. I haven't.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 25, 1999.

Hello,

Well, what an interesting morning. I wake up to my usual mail suddenly interspaced with a whole lot of Yourden Y2K from a post I did not post here. I have been told that if I don't want to post here, then I don't have too...but strangely enough even if I don't post here, I get posted anyway. This is the second time my writing has been posted here w/o my permission. It isn't illegal, but it is rude.

Now that I got that off my chest, I'll start going through responses (just add it to the to-do pile.) No, Ed, you don't have to remove this thread.

Jonathan

-A computer glitch will not bring about the end of civilization. It takes hordes of panicking people to do that.-

-- Jonathan Latimer (latimer@q-a.net), March 25, 1999.

Hiya,

>If you're right and I'm wrong, I get to throw a big party, eat my >mistake, and get teased by my neighbors for being a Chicken Little. > >But if I'm right and you're wrong, you die.

With all due respect, that does oversimplify things a great deal. I am yet ANOTHER person who never said not to be prepared; I live in Hawaii which gets run over by type V hurricanes on a pratically regular basis (it isn't Florida, but it can be close...)

Hurricanes are nasty, brutish things. Yet, people who do not prepare for them live through them all the time. When Iniki hit Kauai, there were many people who were ot prepared at all, and many who were. There were zero casualties. Your logic (as an all or nothing scenario) isn't realistic.

Now, given that, it is important to be prepared for natural disasters, and if you are truly prepared for a type V hurricane to destroy your community, then IMHO you really are adequately prepared for the Y2K problem. What you are not adequately prepared for in people who decide they need to make this a self fufilling prophecy...

Wacked Survivalist: "Gee, Y2K came and went with nary a hiccup. I have 8 months of food and water in my bunker. Don't want people laughing at me. Lucky I have this Anthrax to dump in the water supply. That'll teach 'em. And God told me to do it, too."

That scares me a heck of a lot more than Y2K problems. As long as people believe in Y2K a fervently as a religion (and many do) that is where the real danger has the potential to be lying.

Anyhow, thanks for the note. Keep smiling.

Jonathan

-A computer glitch will not bring about the end of civilization. It takes hordes of panicking people to do that.-

-- Jonathan Latimer (latimer@q-a.net), March 25, 1999.

Yeah - What government shelters? If they were present, loaded out, and manned, maybe they could help the 1000; 10,000; 100,000; 1,000,000; ..... people who listened to Clinton-Gore- Koskinen now and failed to prepare.

Again - this guy fears panic, but wants to hide the problem by Goebel's methods of disinformation and propaganda, rather than preventing it entirely by Churchill's technique of getting the people ready for some unknown degree of discomfort and self-discipline.

Why is this administration afraid of "...blood, sweat, toil, and tears...."?

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 25, 1999.

OK - - - who is brave enough to make a prediction about 4/1/99 problems at this late date? Step right up and make your case for New York, Canada et al. I thought it was really funny how no one wanted to talk about JAE problems the week after Christmas - how no one wants to talk about the EURO introduction - how no one wants to regard the airlines as anything but a factoid. People, you are beginning to worry me. If 1/1/2000 passes and this forum is still active, I shall label the remaining doomers as a religous cult.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), March 25, 1999.

Paul, I sure hope that 19990401 comes off in Canada without a hitch. I'm supposed to be getting a heap of money back from income tax and won't get a cent if there are mega problems at Revenue Canada. Moreover, the fewer problems there are before 2000, the more code will be fixed and the more likely it is that we will only be looking at recession/depression than TEOTWAWKI. Since I like my life now, that would suit me just fine.

I think there is a likelihood of problems occuring and being brushed under the rug (so to speak). Any problems occuring in April are likely to affect financial matters and may be able to be dealt with before causing much (public) havoc. If there are a lot of problems, we'll likely hear about them.

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), March 25, 1999.

Latimer --- Get a life. The notion that "survivalists" (I don't know any, do you?) will react to Y2K passing as bump by dumping anthrax into water supplies is the worst kind of demagoguery. And drop the "keep smiling", it's smarmy and makes you come across like a girley man.

Paul --- Get a grip. Some of us here (me) acknowledged early in January that the "date and EURO fever" was stupid AND rightly challenged by pollys after the dates passed. I didn't ever follow that train, but I gladly take responsibility, sigh, since I fall into the "prepare for the worst" camp. It was dumb and remains dumb. I don't expect major noise level problems from Y2K until late-summer at the earliest, probably later.

It's only common sense that, given legal and insurance issues, real problems will be denied as long as possible. NO, Paul, this doesn't mean I'm ruling out the possibility of minimal problems (may it be so), just that we'll have a hard time sorting it out and CERTAINLY won't be able to sort things out in April.

Gee, as I recall, you made predictions that massive numbers of companies would be ANNOUNCING Y2K compliance soon. If they don't, I, for one, won't consider you wrong as such, given the PR/legal issues.

With respect to 1/1/2000, you know quite well that we won't be able to assess Y2K (even a bump) much before the end of January, 2000. That said, many of us have discovered aspects to self-sufficieny that have been plain fun and meaningful, Y2K apart. I would welcome continuing dialogue with lots of the regulars about that post-Y2K, yet OBVIOUSLY not within a Timebomb 2000 context. If thinking through the lessons of our technological over-dependence is cult-like, put me on the list.

Finally, to restate the obvious (and I thought you had more integrity than stooping to this, Paul, but you clearly don't), the vast majority (95%? 98%?) of the "doomers" will be thrilled and thankful if Y2K is a bump. It's our grandparents, parents, neighbors and children who are sure to suffer if TEOTWAWKI happens. To imply that this forum, taken as a whole (which is how you essentially characterized it) would regret a bump is simply vicious and ignorant.

Sadly, we've been saying this all along and we'll have to keep saying it to make sure people reading these threads don't swallow Latimer's statement here and yours.

Apparently, the major crime of this forum is to encourage and exhort folks to "hope for the best, prepare for the worst." String me up there too, Paul. I'm guilty.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 25, 1999.

General reference for whoever is interested...

[sorry - the link to this article has died]

[bold emphasis is mine]

13 States, District Face Y2K Problems

Unemployment Checks May be Slowed

By Stephen Barr

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, December 23, 1998; Page A03

Thirteen states and the District will have to put electronic bandages on their computers next month so they can pay new unemployment insurance claims into the year 2000, Clinton administration officials said yesterday.

The federal-state unemployment program provides one of the first large-scale examples of the problems caused by the "Y2K bug." Computer experts have warned that payments for billions of dollars in Medicaid, food stamps, child welfare and other federal-state benefits could be at risk because surveys have shown that states are moving slowly on the Y2K problem.

Many of the computer systems in the unemployment insurance program, which processes claims, makes payments to the jobless and collects taxes from employers, are more than 30 years old. The systems processed more than $20 billion in state unemployment benefits in fiscal 1998 and provide crucial data on economic trends.

Persons filing claims for jobless benefits are assigned a "benefit year," which means that -- starting Jan. 4, 1999 -- unemployment insurance systems will have to be able to process dates and calculations that extend into 2000. Y2K problems may occur when computers next month try to process a first-time claim with a benefit year that covers both 1999 and 2000, officials said.

Some states that have not solved their Y2K problems will use a simple temporary fix, such as ending all benefit years on Dec. 31, 1999, while other states will use different techniques that essentially trick the computers so they will perform accurate date calculations, officials said.

If the computers are still not ready to operate on Jan. 1, 2000, states then will rely on emergency backup plans, including the writing of benefit checks by hand, officials said.

John A. Koskinen, the president's adviser on Y2K issues, and Deputy Labor Secretary Kathryn Higgins yesterday stressed that the nation's unemployment insurance system would not suffer serious disruptions.

"A year out, we know where our problems are. . . . It's an enormous help to have that information," Higgins said.

Koskinen pointed to the contingency planning for jobless benefits as a clear sign that the government will be able to maintain important services and programs, even if computer systems encounter Y2K problems.

[snip]

Labor Department officials listed Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, the District, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Vermont as lagging on Y2K repairs. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands also are running behind schedule, the officials said.

Delaware, according to the Labor Department, will not have all computer systems converted until the last possible moment: Jan. 1, 2000. But state officials said the most critical systems have been fixed and suggested that even experts can disagree on how to assess Y2K readiness.

The District should have its unemployment system fixed by March 31, the Labor Department said.

Overall, the repair bill could run to $490 million for the unemployment insurance systems, according to preliminary estimates.

) Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 25, 1999.

Actually,

The predicted computer failures for early '99 have failed to materialize, in large numbers, within the newsmedia articles and onair reports.

Not necessarily because they arent happening.

We have some evidence. A company just doesnt rush to release information on glitches. A competitively stupid move, IMHO.

Having the buglets happen now, becomes a fix-it-flag. With some time left for repairs. (Unless you're one of the 50% smaller businesses, cities and towns across the country who haven't started Y2K repairs yet).

Now, if this was mid-December and were still receiving new flags, Id be quite thankful, my neighbors and I, are prepared.

For anything.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), March 25, 1999.

Here's a good thread about how people on this forum feel about the fiscal year issue:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000add

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 25, 1999.

Why does anyone even respond to Jonathan? (I know I am too) He can read all the articles, posts, web sites on this problem and he probably won't change his mind like the rest of intellectually-lazy America. More people (the ones that can read) are having to much fun, making too much money to be concerned with the obvious. Too much beer in the fridge, too many NASCAR races to watch, too damn busy to take responsiblity for really learning about Y2K. It's easier to do nothing especially with so much arguing on the outcome. Too much noise to get through to get to the truth. Don't care about the truth. Just eat, drink, and be merry for tommorrow we die. Many will. That's what the "Jonathans" will do nothing. It is so sad, but true..

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), March 25, 1999.

Paul Davis seems to be some kind of extremist true believer in the Church Of The Pollyanna Ostrich. His mind is totally closed to the possibility of a major y2k problem; his absolutely adamant refusal to accept the obvious borders on religious fanaticism. We're not dealing with a rational person here, folks.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), March 25, 1999.