My daughter lives in Southern California with her husband and 3 small childred. They plan to be home in Michigan during y2k disruptions. Does anyone know at what date they should plan to be home or is it too early to ask this question? Thanks so much. I have learned a lot from so many of you.

-- Lori (ABaby72@aol.com), March 23, 1999

Answers

Lori,

I'm dealing with a similar issue, and am also wondering what sort of deadline to impose for such travel plans.

Whatever date you choose, I would suggest that you also consider making backup (contingency) reservations on two or three different forms of transportation. Thus, if the preferred means of travel is on an airplane, consider making a backup reservation on a train, and another one on good ole' Greyound or Trailways.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), March 23, 1999.

Since your family lives so far away, my gut feeling is that they should be with you by Thanksgiving and be prepared to stay 'til Ground Hog Day. Nothing really to back this up, other than intuition. But, when I listen to my intuition, I'm rarely disappointed.

What does your intuition tell you, Lori?

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), March 23, 1999.

I personally do not expect serious disrutptions (in travel) during the last days of December, 1999. Depending on what happens between now and then, we may even travel (air) to visit in-laws in the Denver area over Christmas, then return 2-3 days before New Year's Eve.

Would I want to drive that far, at that time? No. I remember the '73 gas crunch far too vividly. Too much uncertainity for too great a distance between here and there. Are these plans absolute? No.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 23, 1999.

If car travel is one of the potential plans, you'll need to keep an ear to the ground concerning gas prices/availability as well. We are having family here before Christmas and staying through the first of January and much longer, if the situation warrants. I'd have through check-up of cars/trucks and maintenance done early in October or early, early November as well.

Seeing as how the cell phones will likely be useful through the end of the year, have family members take at least one on the trip.

Mr. K

-- Mr. Kennedy (standing@gas.pumps), March 23, 1999.

You don't say what part of Michigan or what part of So.Cal. I used to live in Michigan and now live in Southern California. There is no way I would go back to Michigan in the winter, under the tender care of Detroit Edison. No one will freeze to death in Los Angeles, and my observations are that local goverments here are more aware and more prepared for whatever will happen than most governments in the Midwest. (The State goverment is another matter.) You may wish that you had joined your daughter.

-- fran (fprevas@ccdonline.com), March 23, 1999.

Acknowledging uncertainty, December 15 is reasonable, providing you can get space ("beat the Christmas rush now, folks"). The trick is being able to be absent from work and other obligations through the end of January, if need be, or longer.

As a modification, if the grid stays up or mostly up, return to where you came from on January 5 or so from your December trip and then prepare to leave again sometime around the third week of January, permanently, if the security or supply chain starts to crumble.

Distance matters as well as the route you have to take to get back and forth.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 23, 1999.

Alot can happen between now and then. My gut thought is mid november. Also I would sooner have to worry about heat than S.CAL. drying up with out water.

-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), March 23, 1999.

If you're planning mass-transit travel anywhere NEAR the end of December, make your reservations ASAP. I keep forgetting this myself, but there's a lot of folks out there who will be traveling because of the Millenium New Year celebrations. Even if they see the light (or the dark! :) ), stuff will be booked up early.

Me, I have told them's what will listen at all that they oughta plan to be here by the middle of December at the latest.

I wonder if Jim Lord is right about the schools closing early to be used as shelters, etc...

-- Arewyn (nordic@northnet.net), March 24, 1999.

I guess it depends upon when you think Y2K disruptions will begin. I am preparing for serious disruptions to begin in late July and August.

If you plan to go to Michigan anyway, why wait until December? Get there as early as possible and complete all "housekeeping" chores.

Better to be early than too late.

-- Don't wait (getthere@August.com), March 24, 1999.

I believe that things could very well get out of hand this summer, later summer. As we move toward 'the event' (transition 12/31 to 1/1) we will see more and more failures.

August is a critical month because of the GPS rollover and its impact on transportation systems as well as global 'timing and control' systems (including telecommunications and banking?). It is my opinion that any public panic will be met with a swift response from government which eventually will include a 'martial law' type scenario. This *could* occure in August due to rising anxioty in the public, GPS issues and intensification of Y2K related failures.

This is my opinion and thinking on this, not 'fact', so please do not get freaked out by this. It IS something to ponder and weigh; to look for indications of this coming about. If such a scenario were to play out we would expect to see some significant and public failures in the April to June time frame which might trigger fear in the public at large. We may also begin to hear some 'news' from government sources (directly or indirectly via the media) which would 'set the stage' for such an action. I consider the recent announcement by Michael Foot of the FSA in London to be just such a *type* of announcement (prior to April 1 fiscal year roll over). Also the largest Japanese bank has said that it will close its operations in London by April 1st and consolidate all its operations in New York at that time.

So my suggestions are there are three likely times when things can get locked down: August, October, December. We know December will be locked down because it has been discussed by some of the airlines. October is FY rollover for the Federal government which could raise significant havoc. August as stated before.

I do think before Thanksgiving is the latest to plan for.

And I agree with having a second and third plan of action. Just do not wait to long to get moving. It would be better to be much to early than to be a little to late.

-- David (ConnectingDots@Information.Net), March 24, 1999.