Where is the HARD evidence?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Doomsayers of the year 2000 have been warning for months of the consequences from the year 2000 computer bug, and some panic-freaks said we should start to see some problems early this year because of the Jo-Anne effect, 1 year-ahead budget calculations. It's becoming clear to me that these doomsayers are victims themselves of millenial angst, a syndrome in which people believe that all-hell is going to break loose because of various religous/superstitious predictions (Nostradamus, etc.) If any of those predictions come true, it will be from the present state of things in the world involving PEOPLE, not MACHINES. Furthermore, America is so advanced in technology at this point that it is inconceivable that a major crisis is in the works from the computer bug. All you hear about is people who are concerned, who are worried, and who are WORKING HARD to make sure that you're dreams of millenial chaos remain exactly that....DREAMS. I've been reading this BBS for 3 months now and have seen absolutley no one present solid, rock-hard evidence that this is going to be anything more than a chance for business leaders, law enforcement, parents and children, and neighbors to prove once again that we are the hardest-working and most resilient, ingenious people on the planet.

-- Rational (doubter@peace.com), March 22, 1999


Is that you Norm???

-- ??? (?@?.com), March 22, 1999.


Hard evidence? This problem is real. You think America is the greatest nation on earth? We live better than anybody on earth and are the LEAST prepared to survive. It seems to make sense in a way, that this is how america falls, because of an accident. Look how the Soviet Union disintegrated almost overnight, when no one thought it would. Nothing lasts forever. Everybody dies. You could use a little paranoia, y'know? Here's to hoping you have a LOT of faith in this country. We're all gonna' need it.

-- Deanna Pierce (deanna@hadder.net), March 22, 1999.

Do you have automobile insurance, Rational? I trust you have HARD evidence you're going to have an accident during the next 12 months...

-- (rational@question.com), March 22, 1999.

I wish I could see it your way Rational.

Since you are Rational, why don't you check out this site?

If you've spent three months here, then 10 minutes here won't hurt your pride:

A Circle Of Dominoes: A critical look at the coming Year 2000 crisis

-- Brett Blatchley (bblatchl@inmar-inc.com), March 22, 1999.

I have car-accident insurance because a bunch of whining paranoid (law-enforcement)types won't let me drive without it...I have something else you might not have...confidence

-- Rational (doubter@peace.com), March 22, 1999.


Do your parents know that you are playing with their computer?

-- Watcher (anon@anon.com), March 22, 1999.


It's real EASY to make snide comments on somebody's thread and just lurk around, reiterating what genuinely smart people say, without ever making up your own mind about anything. What's real HARD is to SAY something. Sorry to wound your pride by making you feel like a fool (you're obviously on this site 24/7). Got brains?

-- Rational (doubter@peace.com), March 22, 1999.

IDIoT!!!! HoW RATioNAL aRE THe oNEs WHo inSURe onLy beCAusE FORCeD To bY Law????? COnfiDENcE COmES BEForE THe faLL of nINcOmPoOps!!!! hyEnA!!! CAn diETeR BuY AN i AnD a r FoR ThE IDioT JaCkAss????? 3 moNthS CaNNot coNVInCE A MOrOn oF A CHanCE FoR THe enDINg BADLy????? NIeN!!!!! CHanCEs aRE ZILcH For aNY TRouBLe????? LAugHIng iS DIEteR At insANiTy!!!!! INfiDEL!!!!

-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), March 22, 1999.

America is so advanced in technology at this point that it is inconceivable that a major crisis is in the works from the computer bug.

This needs to be made into a bumper sticker with the picture of a big ocean liner next to the words....

Usually, advancement in technology lends itself to our destruction, given enough time. Take the nuclear bomb, for example.

Right now, the major issues are with software and code that may be used to calculate data into 2000 and beyond. Embedded systems are another topic altogether. Hard evidence won't be here until 2000. It's not a 1999 problem.

Mr. K
***Giving hard evidence that y2k won't happen is harder than realising that it will. The evidence? People wouldn't be trying to fix "nothing". (oh, and our esteemed corporate America wouldn't be blowing billions of dollars of their profit just to stay operational if it weren't going to happen)***

-- Mr. Kennedy (thinking@will.here), March 22, 1999.

Oh for goodness sakes. Here we are on Dr.Ed's forum and someone wants to debate the seriousness of it all. Why not just read some of Dr.Ed's essays, and if that isn't presuasive enough just go to some other site where folks talk the bump in the road stuff. It amazes me how some people can claim to have paid attention to all the details and still want to wish for and argue for a minor problem scenario.

-- Gordon P.Connolly (gpconnolly@aol.com), March 22, 1999.


Despite what you might like to think it is not rational to think yourself better than anyone else.

There have likewise been other groups of people that have made the same mistake as you and they too had to witness the fall of their empires.

Empires rise and fall whilst still feeling confident. Confidence doesn't have a whole lot to do with it I'm afraid.

Like you I have done some research into this problem and I don't find anything rational about it. I don't think creating the problem in the first place demonstrates any rationality. Even less rationality was demonstrated in not dealing with it long before now. How rational is it to have a global technology infected with broken code? There is just nothing rational about it. But the fact remains that every single technological system on the face of this planet is infected with a defect that has an unmoveable dealine.

The whole mess is IRRATIONAL.

-- Nothing (rational@all.com), March 22, 1999.

just wait....

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), March 22, 1999.

The "hard evidence" is where it has always been - in the code, in the firmware, in the operating systems. Ultimately, unless you are a programmer of some depth, much of Y2K is a series of rational, cognitive leaps across technological chasms. Some can do it and some can't. Go review the FAA story and the saga of its ATC mainframes. All the "hard evidience" is there for the taking. But you won't do that will you? Denial dreaming is so sweet. Perchance, what nightmares may come? (Apologies to WS and Robin Williams)

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), March 22, 1999.

Rational said "If any of those predictions come true, it will be from the present state of things in the world involving PEOPLE, not MACHINES. "

BINGO ! ! !

Couldn't have said it better myself.

It' s the PEOPLE who aren't prepared to endure cold.

It' s the PEOPLE who aren't prepared to feed themselves.

It' s the PEOPLE who aren't prepared take care of themselves.

It' s the PEOPLE who aren't prepared to defend themselves.

It' s the PEOPLE who aren't prepared to do much of anything without Uncles assistance and/or supervision.

--Greybear, who, as it turns out, did try to say it better anyway.

-Got Food, Clothing, Shelter?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), March 22, 1999.

Religous/superstitious predictions??? I did a little survey here two weeks ago. We have at least 850 MAN-YEARS of programming talent hanging out on this forum. Get real. This is a software problem my friend. Open your eyes, before you walk off the edge of the Grand Canyon! <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), March 22, 1999.

There were was plenty of evidence in that senate report to convince me, lemme tell ya...

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), March 22, 1999.

This reminds me of many evidentiary questions of historical note.

While trying not to exhibit my *own* bias, it's interesting to note that throughout history, the people requiring absolute empirical evidence to back up a thesis are satisified for some reason with the status quo.

Deductive and inductive logic require precision and discipline. Drawing conclusions based on insufficient (sp?) data is hard; incorrect conclusions are easier to come by, than correct.

Another problem, of course, is setting up the data [or experiment] to reach a desired conclusion. This too is common.

One of the major milestones of disease theory in Western History involved a water well that was causing sickness to its drinkers. Microscopes were unknown, and there appeared to be no other visible signs of contamination. But people were getting sick.

Someone figured out that the well was causing it, and closed the well. Pretty soon, the disease abated, and showed that logic can be used in everyday life.

Now that's a simple example, to be sure. Very few data points, and not too many "dots to connect".

Y2K is a similar example. All data do not exist - and cannot exist by definition. Much data contradict each other, and much is open for interpretation. Interpretation usually will include, bias and prejudice.

All this is to say, it's a crap shoot for most of us. The "Experts" disagree amongst themselves about whether the dots connect to make Nirvana, or Styx.

That leaves the rest of us to gather as much information as possible. We have to sift through it, take the data that we can understand and draw conclusions or scenarios to what the data mean.

And it's important to note, that opposite conclusions from such a vast amount of data is possible. Actually, the conclusions will range on the typical "bell curve" from total anarchy to a chicken in every pot.

Some are less qualified than others at interpretation, and therefore have to delegate some of the dot-connection to more knowledgeable people. That's why de Jager, Yourdon, and Yardeni are so prominent.

The fact that equally qualified experts disagree make it harder for the rest of us to see the whole picture.

Ultimately, each of us has to make a decision about what we're prepared to do - or not.

Some are not prepared to do anything. That's fine. Some are waiting for the great Aztec God TEOTWAWKI to show up and deliver us. That's fine too.

What isn't fine is the personal attacks and antagonism frequently displayed by sides.

Do your thing. Persuade others of your side by giving your evidence - pro or con. And then leave the others alone. If they need more information, give it to them. To be of *real* service, give both sides of the issue.

The plain fact of the matter is we're truly not sure what the hell is going to happen.

So let's have a calm, rational debate. If someone takes an opposite view of you, be careful in your response. In debate, if you cannot defend your views without resulting in excessive emotionalism or vitriol, perhaps your views are not based on reason, but based on feelings or angst. If you find yourself viciously attacking Norm (for example), maybe you haven't got a rational basis for your own stand.

I've noticed in my own dealings, that bringing all the facts to bear regarding Y2K yields the best results. Most of the people were unsympathetic, but thanked me anyway. Lately, I've been getting calls from these same people thanking me for "Putting Y2K on their Radar".

With their Radar going, these people were then able to gather enough data on their own to change their minds. Some collect exactly the opposite data.

So lighten up, stop attacking, and talk calmly.

Jolly talks to much.

PS(I'm also not a fan of the "DGI" and "DWGI" terminology which is frequently used with derision here. Folks, it is possible to come to different conclusions here, it doesn't make them idiots.)

-- Jollyprez (jolly@prez.com), March 22, 1999.

Hot damn Jolly, that was nice! Really, well done!!! Sadly though, I think you may have to repost it just about every day... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), March 22, 1999.

While we do not know the future, we do know that there have already been some reported failures related to Y2K:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000Z XI


-- evidence r us (check@it.out), March 22, 1999.

These so called Rational people is the reason I have 1000's of rounds of ammo in by cache. They will be coming to me to steal what I have when the SHTF. I bought a front load tractor to bury them on my 100 acre retreat. Also bought lots of lime to decompose their bodys faster. I won't even think twice when they show up. I am actually looking forward to ridding the world of these parasites.

-- please show up at my house (rationals@kook.com), March 22, 1999.


Yes, many will have the opportunity to prove, once again, that they work hard, are resilient and ingenious.

Y2K is a hard problem for everyone. And the evidence is quite real.

The better prepared they are, the more time can be devoted to creating solutions. The less prepared, the more it may get in their way, by deflecting creative energies.

Whats the winning strategy?

Got logic?


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), March 22, 1999.

Rational - "What's real HARD is to SAY something."

You amply demonstrate your own point.

-- humpty (no.6@thevillage.com), March 22, 1999.


Americans the hardest working people in the world???!!! ROTFLMAO!!! 75% of the American workers are only concerned with: 'How many paid sick days do I get this year? How many paid personal days do I get this year? How many weeks of paid vacation do I get this year? How many break periods do I get in a day? How long are those break periods? Do I HAVE to work overtime?? There are about 25% of us who are pulling the other 75% along.

-- EYE ON Y2K (bugscaresme@mellinium.com), March 22, 1999.

Rational, you can add another 25 years to the 850 man-years represented in this forum. I've done applications, operating system stuff, device drivers, compilers, and embedded systems. Sir, THIS IS REAL (...as if my voice could make a difference!)

-- Brett Blatchley (bblatchl@inmar-inc.com), March 23, 1999.

Sure it's real. No one has ever said it wasn't real. AND IT'S GETTING FIXED TOO. Successful testing is being accomplished everyday. Our corporation has been certified by FNMA, FHLMC, GNMA, SONYMA and the MBA in general. We're a Fortune 500 company too. We even let our users come to town to test the application themselves. They (27 of them) were here for 2 1/2 weeks, rolling through all of the Y2K critical dates with only a couple (literally 2) errors. These testors were from Chase, Norwest, Bank of America, National City and Crestar. That's about 5-6 million loans right there. We have another 15 million on our system. That's 7 out of every 10 single-family mortgages across the country that will calc and report and amortize just fine. To the financial community, this is HUGE news.

Things may not be going so great in other countries, but I have to agree with the fact that America is home of the hardest-working and most-resilient, ingenious people on the planet. This bug will be fixed, on time, no doubt about it.


-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), March 23, 1999.


There's much error in your logic. You're thinking like most of the peopleworking on this, focused on your little island. This in itself illustrates that if you don't know the problem, the solution cannot be found. I'll coin a pharse, Islandthinkers.

If it's not so great in other countries, IF WON'T BE GREAT HERE.

consider that

*30% of our oil is from the Middle-East and Venezeula *the banking system is international *our two biggest trading partners are, by all accounts, lagging behind *hybrid seeds, affecting crops, come from South America *the IRS, which provides 95%, of government revenues is, again by all accounts, DOA

and on and on and on and on and on........

We are tied into a global web, that can't be disputed.

How will people mail their mortgage payments in without a compliant postal service?

For the sake of you and your family, you must leave the island.

and on and on and on and on and e


-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), March 23, 1999.

Well, I recon we can agree to disagree. I gots news for ya though - other countries are pretty screwed up right now, have been for years and years, will continue to be screwed up and the good ol' USA just keeps on tickin'.

My little island deals with thousands of companies everyday from all over the country. Most of them are Y2K ready also. The others won't be far behind.

Don't believe everything you read on the internet. You can count on it as much as you can the newspapers and TV.


-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), March 23, 1999.

follow the money

why would hard-headed businesses/strapped for cash government agencies spend vast sums to stay where they are, or rather to stay in business, ask any geek working on it, you'll never find out the truth except by inside information

that is hard to find

-- dick of the dale (rdale@coynet.com), March 24, 1999.

deano: What is the name of your corporation? Has it stated openly and publicly that it is y2k compliant (not y2k "ready")? Give us some facts or your assertions are just assertions.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), March 28, 1999.

cody, forget it, questions like this have been posed to deano numerous times, the response is always silence. This is why we need pollyannas like Paul Davis, at least they are credible. (Naive, maybe, but credible.)

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), March 28, 1999.


Not quite. On one thread a while back (I know I can't follow them all), Deano said he was muzzled by lawyers. He is not a representative of his company and cannot speak for them. He has given enough information to identify it with a little research (there can only be one largest mortgage brokerage firm in the US, after all). He also said that the corporate bigwigs have made the command decision to keep their status quiet, for fear they'll be held liable if problems come up that they didn't find (and they always do).

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 28, 1999.

Rational and Deano: You are both suffering from an undeveloped sense of consequence, brought about by the propensity of US educational institutions to teach WHAT to think instead of HOW to think.

If Y2K proves to be a mere bump in the road, there is no harm done and we can eat the wide variety of food we have accumulated, using the other supplies for comfortable living during and after winter storms and hurricanes. No problem. On the other hand, if Y2K is a little more problematic--what are you guys going to do?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), March 28, 1999.

Hmmmmn. Ol' "Rational" comes be-bopping in, makes a wide-sweeping conclusion based on evidence he chooses to feel justifies his conclusion and thereby, explicitly with his words (and implicitly with his attitude and alias) criticziing those who who have, based on other evidence and more in-depth analysis, made a different conclusion. Then he does not have the respect for your (the above commentors) time and effort to reply to your answers.

Irritating, isn't it?

Of course, he (by pointing out that the more dangerous societal failure is caused by people) is trying to imply that those who are preparing are going to be responsible for that societal failure. This, of course, is the administration's position - because, for some reason, the administration does not want people to effectively prepare for even the mildest of potential disruptions. (Unless you consider that mixed up illegible comments about "storm warnings" of three days and "possible problems" affecting "small, rural areas" - and NO cash withdrawals = "the ATM's will work fine" - constitute warnings.

To do what they claim they are doing - you should see 5 Y2K "public service" warnings for every other "public service" warning out there about discrimination, aging, smoking, drugs, health care, the books at Pueblo CO, and riding the subway.

Rest in peace, doubter.

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 29, 1999.

Oh - by the way - by the time there is "hard evidence" it will be too late to effectively prepare for the troubles.

That's why its called "preparing" - you are taking prudent actions now (before an event) to mitigate against potential FUTURE results that may occur AFTER an event.

So, how could there ever be enough evidence BEFORE the event to convince someone who does not want to be convinced that the event will happen at all?

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (Cook.R@csaatl.com), March 29, 1999.

I haven't responded much these days but Deanna Pierce your comment was so far off base that I thought I'd comment.

"You think America is the greatest nation on earth?" Actually I do, otherwise I'd move to a spot I loved more. Anyone who lives somewhere they don't like is just plain stupid.

"We live better than anybody on earth and are the LEAST prepared to survive." Speak for yourself stupid. I have learned survival tatics.

"It seems to make sense in a way, that this is how america falls, because of an accident." I can assure you America won't fall. In two hundred years, we've become a powerhouse. The world looked at our civil war and thought we wouldn't survive. We did and helped them out in many ways during their turmoil over the last hundred years.

"Look how the Soviet Union disintegrated almost overnight, when no one thought it would." Overnight?????? They couldn't survive from the start of communism. They just masked their problems left over from the previous regime.

"Nothing lasts forever. Everybody dies." No shit and people have a way of adapting to new situations.

"You could use a little paranoia, y'know?" What good is paranoia? Paranoia doesn't solve problems, only clear thinking does.

"Here's to hoping you have a LOT of faith in this country. We're all gonna' need it." You bet I have a lot of faith.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), March 29, 1999.

WOW! Troll Maria is back and as usual attacks a newbie (Deanna) Way to go Maria! At least you're consistent. A jerk, but consistent!

-- none (none@none.none), March 29, 1999.

Sorry guys. Been out a few days enjoying the TPC. Hope you didn't miss me too terribly much....haha.

The name of the company is ALLTEL Residential Lending Solutions in Jacksonville, FL. Formerly known as Computer Power, Inc. Been in the mortgage banking service bureau industry since the 60's. Twenty million+ loans are housed on our mainframe and processed every night. We have aprroximately 150 banks/mortgage companies we process for (with mergers/acqusitions, this number changes almost daily!). We made our target date of 12/31/1998 as promised for Y2K readiness.

We're very excited about the future down here and welcome it with open arms.

Not exactly the company that puts bread on your table and gas in your car, but one that has a MAJOR effect on our economy.

There I said it......


-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), March 29, 1999.

Jack - you're funny dude. What exactly is it that you do again? I can't ever remember seeing anything of use from you on this forum.

Oh yeah........can I get fries with that??


-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), March 29, 1999.


Most of us who've done a lot of research on Y2K know that the financial industry is the most remediated of all the sectors of the economy. The industry you work in has had to deal with 15- and 30- year mortages and loans for a long time. They knew in the mid-1990's that they had to get all of their systems ready.

Utilities are one of the least remediated sectors of the economy. I do wish the very best to you and to your company.

Some people I know assume Y2K was taken care of when credit card companies took care of the problem with cards having a post-1999 expiration date. In the same way, don't let your company's Y2K success lead you to assume you won't need bottled water in January 2000.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 29, 1999.

Kevin - Appreciate your thoughts. Never said I wasn't preparing. I do have a Y2K shelf in my pantry. Not much to speak of - a few cases of bottle water, few extra canned goods and a few extra rolls of TP, along with the candle, battery, etc.......hurricane prep.

We deal with a lot more than just the financial industry. We've gotten certification from all of our critical vendors. This includes public utilities. Our power provider (JEA - Jacksonville Electric Authority) says they expect no problems due to Y2K. Of course we can't get a 100% gaurantee that they won't but I can't get that out of them for power tonight much less next year. We've planned for outages, but really do not expect to use them.

Given what I hear everyday, from all walks of industry, I just simply do not see any major problems next year.

I have to go with what I know. Couldn't respect myself if I didn't. I guess that's where I'm coming from.


-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), March 29, 1999.


I understand where you're coming from. Just remember, when you make optimistic comments about Y2K, you may persuade someone to not make the kind of basic preparations you yourself have already made. It wouldn't hurt when you make an optimistic post to remind people that basic prep is a good idea.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 29, 1999.

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