First off we live in a rural area of Florida. We are well prepared to take care of ourselves. We have been there, done that. We have the equipment and the skills. But apparently I don't have sufficient imagination. I can imagine the lights out, the back breaking work of living off the land, the ISOLATION due to no phones, limited TV (generator) lack of or limitation of fuel for car, etc. All those things we have lived with in our lifetime. What I can't imagine is the life beyond this. 30 million people without water? I can smell the death in NYC and DEE CEE from here. But where are we say, in 2002 or 3? There will be many who will come down here and camp whereever they can to avoid the cold. We have so many lakes surrounded by forest that we could absorb a lot of survivors.....but not a lot of dead beats! 30 families could move in on the other side of our lake and organize themselves by setting up rules and regs. Latrines would be the first on the list and not using them would bring on dismissal from the camp.. Picking up trash, getting the water from the lake and boiling it. Washing with lake water but not swimming in it or using it as a toilet (small lake). Electing a leadership. The Hoovervilles of old did these things. They did it automatically knowing it was the only way they could survive. But I just can't see that happening with the people today. Y2k isn't enough to bring us down as a people....its today's mentality that will bring us down. I really don't quite know where I am going with this thread. I keep hitting a wall and can't quite climb over it.

Gotta ladder ??

-- Taz (tassie@aol.com), March 22, 1999

Answers

FWIW, Taz, I've been hitting that exact same wall for the same reasons for quite a while now.

No one anywhere I've looked has offered any leg up to help me get over this wall.

It's the people.

--Greybear

-Got Plans?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), March 22, 1999.

This question has been raised before, and I think that everyone pretty much bangs their head into the wall. Speculating on post-Y2K events, as it were, pretty much turns out to be fruitless -- Y2K is too complex, has too many variables, so post-Y2K conjecturing is just about pointless, in my opinion.

You can prepare for Y2K, but you cannot plan for it.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), March 22, 1999.

Agree with Jack in general about speculation, with minor caveat that any prolonged Y2K emergency is likely to accelerate established movement to sun states, providing water is available long-term to support expanded population (no small issue even now). Taz is right to use the years 20002 or 2003 in her post. In a sense, that's a no-brainer prediction and it could have an impact on prep (I LIKE being in a cold, Northern climate partly for that reason).

But, if water is unavailable or unpredictable down south, southwest or west by and large (occasional lakes don't count), people will migrate to it WHEREVER it is around the country.

However, as Mitchell Barnes cogently argues (I paraphrase), 30 million without water isn't going to be a water problem but a plague problem before it's all over. Translation: local communities will bar access to outsiders in such a case with the full support of area law enforcement.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 22, 1999.

I think we will have to take it one day at a time.

It seems senseless to keep trying to look into the future. I know I can not even predict how tomorrow will be. I can plan and hope but that does not mean it will be.

So many here seem to be rushing into the future, worrying about what will happen or how things will be, that they are forgetting to live today.

When whatever happens, that will be the time to worry about it. Not now, not something you can not even forsee. You can only prepare so far, the rest is left to the unknown.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), March 22, 1999.

Me too,Taz.

Something that gave me a little hope was reading somewhere(maybe an answer on this forum,that in times of great crisis,people tend to pull together,rather than try to rip each other off.But how long till that realisation sinks in ??

HOW LONG DO YOU HAVE TO BE ON RED ALERT ??

How long will it take for 30 million to die through lack of water? How long will it take for people to starve to death ? How many mouths can government stores feed & for how long? Where are the emergency food distribution centres?If transport goes down only the locals are going to benefit. How many people die on average each day anyway? What will be the mortality rates due to illness & child birth without our present levels of medical care? What about typhoid deaths.influenza epidemics. Somebody,maybe a social historian could probably come up with some rough figures based on mortality figures in the late 1800's/early 1900's. What happens to the social fabric in a city where a statistical significant proportion of the populace has died.In ancient history there are stories of cities & towns being abandoned. What are the steps that devastated communities take to resurrect themselves as a rule.How long does it take with outside help or no help at all. How many people will abandon the cities - after 15 days,after 20 days,after 30 days ? At what point will city dwellers abandon their homes? How many households in a city have cars. ? If petrol/fuel is rationed, how far,on average, would the urban dweller be able to travel on a full tank.Would they be able to reach your district ?

Knowing the answers to these questions,might be useful in trying to assess the level & timing of survivors reaching your area.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), March 22, 1999.

Taz - "There will be many who will come down here and camp wherever they can to avoid the cold. We have so many lakes surrounded by forest that we could absorb a lot of survivors.....but not a lot of dead beats!" I really don't think you need to worry about that at all. 1 - Dead beats will not put forth the effort to move themselves out of harms way, after all, the govt. will fix it/take care of me. 2 - Deadbeats might not have the smarts to figure out they need to move. 3 - and the clincher, see comments below, add 1 + 1 + 1.

Chris - "How long will it take for 30 million to die through lack of water?" About 3-5 days, sooner if they drink bad water. "How long will it take for people to starve to death?" About 3 - 5 weeks. However if things do get that bad you can make book that deaths from rioting and looting will kick in a LOT sooner than that.

Taz again - "Y2k isn't enough to bring us down as a people....its today's mentality that will bring us down." And here you have hit the nail square on the head.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@eartholink.net), March 22, 1999.

IF post Y2K is so bad as to create a lot of refugees then you can figure on a lot of deaths. With limited resources (oil) large migrations will be difficult if not impossible. The desert areas will empty (this includes especially Southern California). Even the attempt to move would cause more deaths. Not many answers, just more termoil.

-- curtis schalek (schale1@ibm.net), March 22, 1999.

A conversation with someone recently -

she said - "Even if there are major disruptions, it's not like we will forget how to do everything."

I said - "It's what we already have forgotten that may turn out be important. We've forgotten how to safely dispose of our poop so we don't spread disease. We've forgotten how to store and prepare food without electricity so it doesn't make us sick. We've forgotten how to get safe drinking water without turning a tap or opening a bottle. If there are disruptions for a few days or a few weeks, these could be the most important things that we'll have to deal with. And I don't know how to do this stuff, do you?"

Oh, man! You should have seen the wheels spinning!

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), March 22, 1999.

Taz -

I think you and my husband have hit it on the head. You can prepare, but when it comes to planning, there is a blank wall that makes planning pure speculation after Dec. 31 (or earlier). You can't plan retirement, you can't plan education for your children, you can't even plan a week's menu other than from what you have stored past that date. Every time, you come up against that wall that is just high enough that you can't see beyond. Frustrating experience for some of us who are planners at heart!!

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), March 22, 1999.

pshannon --- yes, exactly, "it's what we have forgotten." That's the reason Y2K could go from a 6 to a 9 or 10 within a month, not because it MUST, but because rudimentary self-sufficiency is beyond most of us.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 22, 1999.

Taz,that is very interesting about Hoovervilles; I like to hear more about how these camps were structured. Some good rules beforehand might save a lot of strife.---------------------------------------------------------

-- (Your@town.USA), March 22, 1999.

Taz,that is very interesting about Hoovervilles; I like to hear more about how these camps were structured. Some good rules beforehand might save a lot of strife.---------------------------------------------------- -----

-- KoFE (Your@town.USA), March 22, 1999.

Amen, Linda. First we have to get there.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), March 22, 1999.

Taz

Given the nature of our society as it is right now, there is no question that people will strive with all of their might to regain what has been "lost".

That is evidenced by the recovery from the Great Depression. Albiet, that recovery took much longer than a recovery would be achieved during these days and times. More people, more technology, better communication ability, .... all of these factors will add up to a faster recovery.

The most common and motivating reason for economic and social / government structure recovery will be because our society has become spoiled. There will be a massive undertaking, after the shock and meltdown occurs (to whatever degree), to build it back to what it was and more, of course.

Can't have the wife cursing about not going to La Souingne's every friday night after the opera for that $150.00 meal, or the hubby witching and moaning about not getting to use the $800.00 season tickets to the ever important sports games to watch over paid, not-very-intelligent people run around silly like, now can we?....

Nope, folks will be busting tail real hard to get it right back in the sorry condition it is in right now.

Mr. K
****who wore a tux 12 years ago--my wife wouldn't marry me without it****

-- Mr. Kennedy (reservations@8.oclock), March 22, 1999.

And I didn't mean to leave out that my estimation of a short recovery meant a few months or weeks. I meant it would be shorter than the recovery of the Great Depression.

I have a years provisions....and looking to put up most of the delicious garden stuffs this year.

Mr. K
***Loves Mrs. K's fresh blackberry pies***

-- Mr. Kennedy (here@home.now), March 22, 1999.

pshannon,

LOL, good idea, best DGI converter around!

Everyone,

Many good points have been made on this thread. I can definately relate to your thoughts & feelings.

I saw this quote today that sums it up for me.

"My job is to take care of the possible and trust God with the impossible"

--Ruth Bell Graham

Whenever I try to imagine the future (in relation to y2k) and I get to that brick wall, to me it's almost like my mind is freezing in a protective mechanism. It refuses to let me imagine any further. That is when I know, at least for the moment I need to focus on today, and the things I know to prepare for now, when the time is right the rest will come.

What little I know about human development is that we can only really know what we experience, we cannot 'know' hot, until we get burned (or at least feel heat) there comes a point this steps out of the realm of any expreience we've had.

If we remain aware, as this develops we should gain clearer insight as time marches on. It is difficult to live with the knowledge that some once in a lifetime/generation devestation may be just around the corner. We want to know what will happen, and we want to know now. But I have often thought in retrospect: "If I knew everything that was going to happen to me this year, I would have wanted to stay in bed with the covers over my head!" One day at a time. Every person here (almost ;-) has been strong enough to face what is going to happen(including the unknown), when the time comes, you will be as able as anyone to cope.

I have been reading as many books as I can get my hands on about people who lived through the unlivable, the unspeakable, the unforgetable. They did not know the future, many saw the signs, but not all. The only common factor I've been able to discern thus far has been the unshakable desire to live. Some survive as heroes, some survive by being evil.

To me the reality of this is that no matter how well you prepare, plan, imagine, predict, no matter how hard you work there are factors invloved that are just plain out of our control. Disease. You can boil, filter, dispose properly, quarentine, but disease may get'cha anyway. You have everything you need, your house burns down.

Every day is a gift, under ordinary circumstances. Not one uf us will die until the appointed time comes.

I definately advocate preparation, physical, mental, spiritual, but we need to face the fact that things can happen that we never imagined preparing for. This happens on a normal day. The car accident that blocks traffic & makes you late, blah blah.

Prepare to die & you will be free to live.

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), March 22, 1999.

pshannon -

If you don't mind, I'm going to use this one :-)

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), March 22, 1999.