At Cathay Pacific Airlines there is discussion about risks to flight crews as well as passengers. Some crew members are stating that they will not show up at the end of 1999 in view of all of the potentially serious risks to life.

What other types of activities may be perceived as too risky by those whose lives could be adversly effected?

To what extent will people stay home to protect their families from other perceived risks?

How many will stay home fearing they might not be able to get back?

Will human action lead to paralysis and closure of some systems prior to 31 December 1999?

How many employers may anticipate inadequate staffing and close before Christmas to protect their enterprises?

What entities need even earlier closure to shut down safely?

How soon might this phenomenon begin to occur and where?

I am wondering if travelling business people, diplomats, truckers, seamen and those on overseas duties will want to be thousands of miles away from their families and whether families will beg them to come home and stay home due to their fears. Will out bound flights become emptier and inbound flights become seriously backloged? How soon may returning home become difficult to impossible? Will air craft become commandeered for "official" activities thereby exacerbating the predicament for citizens?

The prospects of an evolving paralysis way before the end of 1999 are of deep concern to me. What do you think of such prospects and do they concern you?

-- Watchful (seethesea@msn.com), March 19, 1999

Answers

Think it would be prudent to be home by July. Think your prospects are plausible, Watchful. Risks aplenty on home base. They all say it'll be worse everywhere else. Minimize all risks is what my friends are already doing. No New Years cruises!

-- staying at home (stocking@up.now), March 19, 1999.

Watchful, You pose a very interesting question. It is increasingly common to hear people say they will not travel early in Y2000, but I have not considered the effects of this phenomenon carefully. My initial thoughts are as follows: 1. We will see an "increasing decrease" in completely discretionary (luxury) cruise ship and airline travel bookings.

2. People who travel as part of their job (business men, govt representatives, entertainers) will increasingly manipulate their schedules to complete travel prior to Y2000 or postpone till whenever they feel the danger will be over.

3. People whose job IS travel (airline, cruise ship, cargo ship, train, trucking employees) will be put in a difficult bind as the Millennium nears. Many may be faced with travelling or quitting their jobs.

4. Particularly piercing is the fact that many more people than normal are expected/expecting to travel to join in New Millennium celebrations.

You bring up a thoughtful question.

-- Jack Miller (practicaljack@practicaljack.com), March 19, 1999.