Is this happening?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I was thinking about my cats last night, about how I'd look after them come y2k (I think I might put away some dry cat food..like, about fifty kilos of it) when the true facts of all this came to me.
I'm going to be here, when y2k hits. My company is operating in Australia. I'm going to be living at home, in THIS house, in the middle of one of Sydney's most expensive (read: looter-bait) suburbs. I am going to be stocking up on food..ideally one year's supply for eight people (my family, plus 33% extra), and I'm going to be armed, but...
This could be really bad. I'm starting to understand the DGI mentality. I do not believe it will be over a 6 because if it is, I am dead. If it is, and society breaks down, and there are dog packs running down Holt Avenue and the CBD burning out of control and f---ing gangs smashing open the Military Road jewellers..and gangs systematically looting the Mosman houses, while water supplies run out and thousands upon thousands of people head out, or congregate around the foreshores so they can drink sea water from Sydney Harbour.. and start dying of starvation. Roads clogged with abandoned vehicles, people -Mosman residents, who are stockbrokers and barristers and that kind of thing- moving north towards the country..starving, looting shops. Violence breaking out. People dying.
"In a couple of weeks", I can see myself saying (to someone), "most of the people around here are going to be dead." And I'd be right. And that absolutely, totally, completely scares the hell out of me.
-- Leo (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 17, 1999
Start writing out a list that you will revisit and amend each day.
Start a one step every day advanced shopping program for nutrition.
As you progress, your fears will begin to subside.
All best wishes, Watchful
-- Watchful (email@example.com), March 17, 1999.
Leo, you are not alone!!
-- linda (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 17, 1999.
Leo....can you move a ways out of the city? I know Sydny is just another city with all the nuts and fruit cakes, but the rural people in AU are like the Yanks were in the 40s. Honest and hard working (except for the GD postal strikes). I would feel a lot safer in Sydney than I would in LA or NYC, thats for sure. Aren't there some real stringent gun laws there now? Seems like my brother in law in Tassie had to sell his guns or turn them in or something after that massacur down in Hobart. Buy cat food!!
-- Taz (email@example.com), March 17, 1999.
OK. So you are looking the 'beast' in the eye now and see that there is no reason there. It is better to stare this down now rather than to wait till you can do nothing at all to combat it.
We all need to consider the various LEVELS of damage which can lead to different types of social problems. Break these down. One of those levels will be 'breakdown'. Each one of us much ask two questions: 1) how will I recognize this before I'm trapped by it, and 2) what will I do about it before it traps me.
When people talk about 'bugout' plans this is one of the responses to 'breakdown'. If you do not have a plan to deal with this and it happens then you will not make good decisions IF it arrives.
Emotionally it is very difficult to confront these things when 'all the world lay peaceful and serene before us'. You will either respond to this by taking a fighting stance or a flight stance. DGI's intuitively are in flight mode before they ever mentally confront the possibilities. They are running from even the consideration of the thought of it.
This excersize may help.
Go out to a quiet place where you can be alone. Take with you a little troll doll or other type of monster image and a baseball bat or big club. Place the image on a rock or stump. Walk away from it and think alot about the worst scenario you can imagine. With all your might determine that you will fight it tooth and nail, that you will fight and win over anything that so threatens you and your family. Think about this 'foe' as that monster doll and then go with all your might and beat the living shit out of that piece of plastic.
It may sound silly but it may help focus your will and resolve against what seems so very intagible at this time. You may find this helpful.
-- David (ConnectingDots@Information.Net), March 17, 1999.
Leo, you wrote: In a couple of weeks, I can see myself saying (to someone), "most of the people around here are going to be dead." And I'd be right.
Don't let it scare you. Just make sure that you stay alive longer than they do, and they (looters, the unprepared) will cease to be a problem. I realize that sounds harsh and cruel, but we're facing a harsh and cruel situation. You've got eight people, food, arms and most important, foreknowledge. You've got an advantage in being ahead of the game... don't lose it by dwelling on the gruesome eventualities. Giving yourself a case of the willies may frighten you into inaction, so take hold of yourself.
-- sparks (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 17, 1999.
Being frightened into inaction isn't my style. Terror tends to provoke me into hyperaction, not inaction.
Good suggestions. Thanks. In Australia, I'll already be ahead of 99% by the very fact that I intend to be armed, and most people won't. All the same, just the notion of so many people dying..REALLY scares the shit out of me. I'm not sure whether to believe this or not..
-- Leo (email@example.com), March 17, 1999.
Leo, you're on the road to acceptance and being mentally prepared, a true GI. Read again what David said, he's got it right. It's a matter of being mentally prepared for ANY level, any scenario. Deal with the worse in your mind, but keep HOPING.
Preparing will boost your confidence and reduce your anxiety. Then you can analyse your online research with a clearer mind and be more objective.
I'm at a 6 now too, but I know that there are chances for it to go either way. There will be different scenarios for different localities. Now you know what we mean by "prepare for the worse, hope for the best".
-- Chris (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 17, 1999.
Leo, Don't lose hope....I am sure you are not alone. The feeling of responsibility for family gets pretty big - I know, my son is almost 3 y.o. & my husband is just beginning to GI. I remind myself each day to try to put this in perspective, we DON'T KNOW how bad it will be, if it is a 5-10% chance of TSHTF then that's big enough for me to do my best to prepare. You & I (and it looks like a lot more!) are taking this seriously, preparing to survive. Let yourself feel good about what you have accomplished, there are no guarantees in this life but you sure have improved your family's odds as best possible. If you can speak calmly and non-judgementally with your neighbors, keep your cards close to your chest but touch base with them - share some "good" info (like Red Cross, 3 day stuff) from credible sources...gently introduce the idea of looking out for each other in case of trouble....I would guess you didn't GI the 1st time you heard...You will feel much better if you can feel not so isolated....Our thoughts are with you! Bye, Kristi
-- Kristi (securx@Succeed.Net), March 17, 1999.
Get some perspective. Hanging around a forum like this is bound to leave you shaken. I know when I first came here I started to hyperventilate, then I realized, wait a second, there are a lot of extremely knowledgeable people who believe that Y2K will be a Bump In The Road (BITR?). The problem is that you don't hear from these people here because this is essentially a forum for one point of view.
I would suggest that you provide yourself a more rounded exposure to Y2K possibilities. The people here have no more insight into what may happen at 2000 than I do. They just have more fully formed and perhaps intractable opinions (I'm trying to be polite)
Don't panic - read. Inform yourself. Do not listen exclusively to one side of the debate. Best wishes.
-- Helen Wheels (helen@****.com), March 17, 1999.
> "most of the people around here are going to be dead." And I'd be right. And that absolutely, totally, completely scares the hell out of me.
Your statement proves you are a sane civilized person. Anyone who would not be scared by that type scenario is either insane or deeply disturbed.
Fear itself is not necessarily a bad thing. It can paralize you and/or spur you to action. How you react to the fear is the question.
It sounds as if you have already done quite a bit to prepare yourself. Don't stop now.
I have experienced (and still do ocassionally) what I can only describe as agony. The agony of what I see as a possibility has come near to overwhelming me at times. The only thing that pulls me through is my religious faith and a determination to NEVER GIVE UP. You may be experiencing some of that agony now. NEVER GIVE UP.
That has become my "mantra" - NEVER GIVE UP.
The moment I even start to think about yielding (and it is EVER so tempting to do so) I come back to the simple logic that as long as I am trying there is a chance. That's all I want - a chance.
A chance for my children, a chance for a civilized world, and a chance for liberty. I can't do a lot for others. If I can take care of me and mine I might just be able to contribute a tad to the general good someday. But not unless I keep struggling.
As I see it we will be faced with many options. It's not the lesser choice of the evils, it's the evil of the lesser choices.
Whatever may happen, be it a 0 or 10 or in between, my goal does not change, only the techniques.
- Got Hope?
-- Greybear (email@example.com), March 17, 1999.
Leo! Good to see your post! I shared your Titanic story with some folks, and they thought it was great.
-- Tim (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 17, 1999.
"Think about this 'foe' as that monster doll and then go with all your might and beat the living shit out of that piece of plastic. "
I used a shotgun and that seemed to work too. :)
-- a (email@example.com), March 17, 1999.
Got to get past the really big issues to the ones you can handle Leo.
Plan to be self-reliant. Keep a low profile if you are concerned for your personal safety. You cannot help when you are dead. Don't add to the problem and, within your capacity, help where you can.
No-one can ask any more of you. Nor should you ask more of yourself.
-- Bob Barbour (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 17, 1999.
The neighbours on one side are nice people, despite the noise that their damn dog makes. Young married couple and a baby. I think they'd co-operate for defense. They've got a big cellar (when the house was on sale I had a look), pretty much an open garage deep enough for four cars bumper-to-bumper. Runs all the way under the house, which is on a slope. Ideal for storing food and lots of it.
I'm pretty sure that I could get them to GI, at least to the extent of some preparation.
The people on the other side are not so nice. Retired couple who, on moving in, did some renovations that pretty much destroyed whatever view our house had. I don't think they're evil, but I haven't spoken to `em much. Don't know the guys back-to-back with us. The people TWO houses up, my nice neighbour's neighbours, I know passingly. The father's a millionaire real-estate dealer who owns four Porsches and sends his kids to private schools. Something about his four Porsches makes me think "DWGI", but maybe he's just an ignorant DGI. We can always hope ;)
Anyway, does anyone have experience in contacting neighbours for y2k planning? How do I handle this?
(I also know of at least one person living in Mosman who will also be prepared as well as me; my financial backer! Lives in a far more expensive house with an order-of-magnitude better view than me. She knows other people -she's a tax agent with lots of clients- who I consider potential customers, since it's in her interests that I pay her back.)
Helping my neighbours prepare: I don't think I'll go for a profit there. But everyone else, I plan to get myself a fat 25% agent's markup on. That's about a grand for every GI I create, possibly a little more.
Hey, we have to see the silver lining here! When the stock market crashes, my shorts go WAY up!! And the more profits I make, the more I can invest into shorting the market..and the better off I'll be when the shit DOES hit the fan! (Although God knows what I'll do with fifty kilos of silver when there's nothing to buy with it...oh well, I guess it looks pretty *g*)
And since I plan to be armed, I'll have an incredible advantage. If I can buy myself two rifles and a pistol (total cost about $1500, including the registration business), and of course a shitload of ammo -I'm thinking of several thousand rifle rounds here, plus a couple hundred rounds for the pistol- then I'll be able to outgun ninety-nine percent of the looters.
Would you guys think of me as being absolutely nuts if I bought MORE rice than I absolutely needed..as in, a couple of hundred -even SEVERAL hundred- kilos more, in order to look after a whole number of people who came around- not just once, but until they can (under my organisation) get some food grown of their own and become self-sufficient.
It's going to be weird, I think. After the first few weeks, which will probably be utter hell. I don't even know if I'm serious..on my daily jog to the gym a few hours ago, I suddenly saw myself walking down the same quiet suburban street a few blocks from my house, only this time with a rifle in my hand and a pistol at my side, warily looking out for possible threats as I pass by some houses that have been burnt down, others that have been smashed open, all that have been clearly abandoned. The crazy thing was that it's no longer just a sick thought: it's POSSIBLE, LIKELY even.
A city without lights. A city without more than a few hundred people. A city in which going too far without a weapon is STUPID, but a city of general silence; a city where you'll be able to walk down the highway with the loudest noise being that of a couple of birds.
In my novel Breakdown (Written over a year ago, before I knew about y2k, but basically about the descent from normality to TEOTWAWKI and the experiences of a group of teenagers in the process), the main character is at one stage walking through the Sydney CBD. This is three months after the collapse, and the place is utterly quiet. Smashed windows everywhere. He goes into the high MLC office building, wanting to get a view of the place. Climbs ten thousand stairs, finds himself in a deserted office. Too high for the looters. Abandoned. Deserted. When I was writing it, 14 months ago, I felt an empathy with the main character that I sometimes do; an empathy strong enough that when they're scared, I'm scared. Now, I'm starting to think that -14 months FROM now- I could *be* that main character walking through the deserted ruins of the CBD.
Kinda scary, huh?
-- Leo (email@example.com), March 17, 1999.
Leo wrote --And since I plan to be armed, I'll have an incredible advantage. If I can buy myself two rifles and a pistol (total cost about $1500, including the registration business), and of course a shitload of ammo -I'm thinking of several thousand rifle rounds here, plus a couple hundred rounds for the pistol- then I'll be able to outgun ninety-nine percent of the looters.--
Leo, get professional help now!!
You've entered a sick degenerate fantasy world which has obviously affected your mind. Go get help now, and don't be afraid to turn yourself in before you hurt someone. It's for the best.
-- Craig (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 17, 1999.
Leo, forget those people telling you to get professional help, there's nothing wrong with you. You have identified the problem and you are willing to do whatever it takes to sustain your position. You must think about yourself and those that will be with you first (and make sure those people are going to do their fair share of preparing). Doesn't matter what you think is going to happen, is what is going to matter is are your prepared for it to happen? Bardou.
-- Bardou (Bardou@baloney.com), March 18, 1999.
Leo -- "Anyway, does anyone have experience in contacting neighbours for y2k planning? How do I handle this?"
Have you seen Roleigh Martin's A Y2K Handout You Can Use With Your Neighbors
Copy it and mail it out to your neighbors. It's written to inform anyone who reads it, while protecting the sender's anonymity.
Understand your apprehensions. You've got a lot of company, from all walks of life. Maybe you've read Tom's Take.
For a take of another color, there's The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?
Could be we're coming up on a cusp here -- a critical point where two (or more) very different outcomes have roughly equal chances of being realized. The decisions we each are making will contribute to the eventual outcome.
Shooting folks until you run out of ammunition is one way. Trying to work something out in community -- at whatever scale is possible -- is another.
Nobody's going to live forever. Question is, what kind of future would you like those who come after to have?
-- Tom Carey (email@example.com), March 18, 1999.
Leo, if there's a complete infrastructure breakdown, then trying to survive in the city will be suicide unless you combine your arms with others to become top bad dog. And that's unlikely unless you can take control of the military equipment that's available. The only folks who will survive a MadMax situation will be rogue military units surviving the dissolution of government. Your best bet is to relocate to a self-sustaining place that doesn't draw too much attention to itself if there is such a locale. And hope they are well armed and defensible. As I'm in SoCal, a MadMax scenario is armageddon. That's why I'm moving out before the rollover. Should the infrastructure fracture, SoCal reverts to a semi-desert. There's no way 15 million people can survive without a completely functioning infrastructure in this relatively dry part of the world. So let's hope for the bump in the road; otherwise, let's get out of Dodge:)
-- Got ammo? (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 18, 1999.
Relocation, I'm afraid, is simply not possible. It's a nice idea and I wish it WAS possible, but it's not. I'm in the city. The suburbs, anyway. Skulls, I've got to disagree. Perhaps in the United States you'd be right. But here in Australia, guns are few and far between. The handful of weapons I plan to have would be by American standards, nothing. Hell, they're not even automatic! But here in Australia, they'd be considered quite impressive. The people with military hardware WOULD be stronger, I guess..but our military is mostly deployed northwards. Don't think there's a lot of Army units in Sydney, and I don't know if the Navy (there's two bases in the Mosman area and a major one across the Harbour at Garden Island) would be particularly aggressive with them.) Besides, it's not as though I'm planning to sit on my ass during the collapse. If things are happening, I'm going to be listening into communications with a radio scanner. I'm going to be prepared to react, if I have to. If there's a chance that *I* can grab some military hardware (off some bodies-`Jeff's dead, we're pulling out', and I know where Jeff is) then I guess I'd try and do so. Australia doesn't have the social problems that America does. There are no gangs, for instance. (Well, there are the drug dealers, and there's the graffiti crewz, but half the graffiti people in Mosman are my friends and the drug dealers are all way out west). I think a lot more people would starve, than die of violence. Sure, there could be problems with renegade military units. But I'm more inclined to expect things in Sydney to happen in several stages: 1. New Year's Day to 3/1/00: Apathy. Shops'd be closed anyway. Maybe some (the 7-11s) might NOT be closed. The lights are off, but the govt makes light of it. The looters are too hung over to do anything, and the cops are out in force anyway. Most people aren't too pleased with events, but they light up candles and keep going anyway. My customers are feeling pretty good about themselves. 2. 4/1/00 to 8/1/00: Beginning of panic. The lights stay off. The shops STAY closed. And people run out of food. Right about now, the masses begin to understand that something definitely NOT normal is happening. Looting of shops starts; they're closed, so people smash their way in and take what they feel they need. Maybe some even leave the money on the counter or under the register. The looters figure, "hey, we can loot!" and begin raiding the expected places. Violence breaks out and my five-step police disintegration sequence begins (police called from suburbs to deal with inner-city looting; looters head into the cop-free suburbs.) People begin getting the hell out of the city. At this stage, it may still be viable to do so.
(Also at this stage, my customers start to feel pretty damn good about themselves.) 3. Breakdown. 9/1/00 to 15/2/00. This, boys and girls, is where it gets ugly. Real ugly. The urban food stocks are emptied, and by now even the old prunes in the back of the cupboard have been eaten. The military takes over the job of the police force (where it can), but it can't do much to stop people streaming out of the city in search of food. Shops are plundered, anywhere that might POSSIBLY hold food is looted to the ground. Camping goods stores are smashed open and looted too. Houses are looted. People intend to drive out to the country, but as they reach the main road they find it jammed with stopped vehicles. They get out and go on foot, abandoning their car and anything they can't carry. This human tide of three million people streams north, south, and west along the Pacific, Princes, Hume and Great Western highways. Every truckstop, hamlet, town and house within five klicks either side of these highways will be looted thoroughly many times over. The brighter people realise that everyone's on the major highways and head off them. There are more guns in the country (where they're sometimes allowed for pest control) and as the people disperse, the ability to form a looting mob disintegrates. Maybe some of the smarter people who leave the highways manage to survive, by making deals with farmers or by finding their own stocks. Most of the rest starve, en masse. At least, those who don't die of thirst do; the ones heading west will find the water stocks running low when there's no pumping and a million people passing through the area.
In the city, it's not pleasant either. Thorough and extensive looting of every house that might have a can of food in it. Violence happens, but possibly not against those willing to protect what they have -most of the looters are unarmed, and when a gun is shoved into their face they're smart enough to depart. Nevertheless, this is the most dangerous point. During this period of time, my intention is to have at least one, preferably two, people on watch at ALL times, with guns. Any warning devices I can come up with (probably along the lines of tripwires linked to bells, or covering the ground with gravel in order to make moving around harder) will be in use. Nobody leaves the house. Maybe I smash some windows (from the outside, then clean up the glass on the inside) to make the place look as though it's already been looted. All lights stay off, especially electric ones. Intruders at night are spotted with my IR scope. I spend most of my time (when not on watch) listening to the radio scanner for warning of any threats. 4. Stabilisation. 16/2/00 onwards.
Most people are, uh, dead. Those who stayed in the cities have either found reliable food sources or fled. The survivalists remain. Those who have lasted to this stage have a high chance of surviving. Security can be relaxed. Armed people can leave the house, explore neighbouring houses for stuff of value and use. Possibly expand outwards, checking out the rest of Mosman. And I can't believe that there is actually serious, convincing evidence that this may happen.
-- Leo (email@example.com), March 18, 1999.
One can always take a troll doll into the woods and bash it to bits. More productively, try the following. Analyze each period (before, during, after Y2K, long after Y2K) for a variety of risks (power, water, telco failures, etc.). Play a little with the variables and do a "Sim City" with you in it. Crank out the numbers. If you can't get a good read on a particular issue, consider a straddling position -- half in, half out. Then plan and act accordingly. To my mind, what helps in a bad situation is finding, looking at, and enjoying the bright side. For example, if mayhem erupts in Y2K, among the worst prepared cities is Washington, DC. What would life be like in the US if Washington, DC is effectively lost to looters and riots? I contend that we as a nation would be forced by such events to re-examine our fundamental beliefs, find the flaws in reasoning and faulty choices that led us to the state we would be in, and correct those mistakes. Overall, I think this might be a good thing for the country. We are a nation of sheep, of sleepers. Paradoxically, we may need a collective slap in the face to wake ourselves and return to vigilant attention in guarding and enjoying our rights and our heritage. The slap will hurt, but if it leads to a better world, I say bring it on!
-- Ann Y Body (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 18, 1999.
Grew up with thirteen brothers and sisters and always had company when I slept. When I visited my grandmas I would have my own room and would imagine all sorts of boogie men outside. The problem went away only when I decided to get up out of bed and face the boogie man. Turned out to be nothing usually.
One day however, when grandma was gone for the evening I heard the back door open and very heavy footsteps coming towards the kitchen. I called out, no answer, got up and ran to the front of the house where my brother was, called police. We got the guts to check it out and the guy was gone and the door wide open. Never found the guy.
Anyway face your fears and flee if you have to, don't panic, as we say in the Boy Scouts..."Be Prepared".
-- freeman (email@example.com), March 18, 1999.
One thing you forgot to mention in your scenario, Leo - methinks the Indonesians might consider Y2K as a perfect time to expand their territory, ala West Irian and Timor. No way your army could withstand such an invasion, not with the weapons it has, and the lack of a nuclear umbrella. More likely that Darwin and Cairns will be speaking bahasa than Sydney or Melbourne, but who knows how far they'd extend the push if they felt confident. Stock up on rice, at least perhaps you can serve them nasi goreng when they arrive.
-- sparks (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 18, 1999.
"> "most of the people around here are going to be dead." And I'd be right. And that absolutely, totally, completely scares the hell out of me.
Your statement proves you are a sane civilized person. Anyone who would not be scared by that type scenario is either insane or deeply disturbed. "
Wrong. Dead wrong. Leo, all of your assumptions are based on one big assumption--the total collapse of civilization. It is not sane to jump to further conclusions after you have already jumped to conclusions. Don't you have anyone there in Australia you can talk to about this? You're young aren't you? See if you can find somebody to talk to besides this place.
-- Buddy (email@example.com), March 18, 1999.
Leo, Everytime I think about the worst case senario my mind freezes.So many thanks for writing this post.To all those who answered and illuminated the path with your advice ..hopefully, my UNDYING gratitude!
-- Chris (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 18, 1999.
Yeah, Leo, listen to Buddy, who lives in Washington, D.C. ("Dee Cee") of all places. Like he really shares a sense of worry about Y2K -- dumb pollyanna.
Surely you can get some kind of "bug out" plan going (what I saw in those old Dundee movies looked promising, maybe find a Y2K compliant swamp or something to hide out at).
-- King of Spain (email@example.com), March 18, 1999.
Leo, you've got a good imagination. You've thought through a local 10 scenario in much greater detail than I would care to. It could get that fugly, but at least you'll have a much better fighting chance than most people in the neighborhood. Try to take comfort in that. That being said, social breakdown on such a scale is not a done deal; maybe it will, maybe it won't. Although with the genii who run our power grid saying that they don't really need SCADA, and then in the same paragraph saying that the major y2k problem they face is big power consumers suddenly dropping off and/or reconnecting to the grid, well...it makes you wonder. Anyhow, be sure to put as much forward planning into a 7-9 scenario as you have with the 10. And try to be sanguine about it all if you can; che sera sera etcetera. BTW, in Australia you aren't allowed to purchase a gun specifically for the purpose of self-defence, so when they ask be sure to tell them that you got a sudden urge to hunt moose or something, don't mention yer starving marauders.
-- humpty (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 18, 1999.