More positive news that will be dismissed out of hand... : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

By Michael Conlon


It is now possible to book an airline flight, hotel room and rental car into 2000 as a major part of the travel industry finishes an early, and apparently successful, stare-down with the Year 2000 bug.

Given the dark doomsday predictions still floating around, that's good news.

But will anyone risk traveling on Jan. 1 or in first few weeks of the uncharted double-zero year? There seems to be some positive news there as well.

CIO Magazine, a bimonthly with circulation of 125,000, has asked executives in a number of polls in the last 12 months if they would fly on a commercial airliner on Jan. 1, 2000.

The question arises because of speculation that air-traffic systems, and perhaps aircraft themselves, might fall prey to disruptions from the is-it-1900-or-2000 computer prob lem that technicians have been working to solve for some time.

Two polls done last year found 63 percent and 60 percent respectively would not fly a commercial airliner on that day.

But a third poll, in early February, found those not willing to risk a commercial flight on that day had dropped to 41 percent. Forty-eight percent said they would, and 11 percent said they were not sure.

Figures from the travel industry indicate the world already is planning to take to the skies in a big way when 2000 rolls around. The plans seem to involve primarily tours and special trips by those traveling to exotic locales who want to watch the calendar make its historic turn -- even if the millennium really does not begin until a year later.

Galileo International, the system that processes about a third of the world's travel reservations through its Galileo and Apollo computer networks, began booking year 2000 travel in January and February.

The Galileo system, which serves Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, reported a dramatic increase in reservations for 2000 compared with business booked a year ahead in 1998, according to Julie Shep herd, spokeswoman for the company.

"For the month of January 1999, we processed 139,741 bookings for [ January ] air travel in the year 2000, compared to 34,230 bookings during January 1998 for travel in January 1999," she said.

The Apollo system, which serves North America, Japan, and parts of the Caribbean, processed 34,917 travel reservations for the first four days of January 2000 when it began accepting them early in February, an increase of more than 13 percent from a year ago, she said.

The two systems are linked to 158,360 travel agency terminals and connect with 520 airlines, 225 hotel companies, 44 car-rental companies and 346 cruise and tour companies in 104 countries.

"From what we discern, a lot of people are making really nice plans to celebrate -- probably a little bit more so than in a normal New Year period -- and are booking in advance because consciousness has been raised," Shepherd said.

"There has been a lot of hype in the media about things being sold out. Usually people don't think about booking this far in advance," she added.

The fact that the hotel, airline and car-rental companies have been able to move their businesses into 2000 with no major computer glitches has cheered up the travel industry.

The state of air travel in the coming year, however, remains open to speculation.

On New Year's Eve, FAA administrator Jane Garvey and the agency's Y2K compliance chief, Raymond Long, plan to fly from Washington westward, hopping commercial flights through the time zones to demonstrate that the system has passed the Y2K hurdle.

The Federal Aviation Administration, of course, does not control airport operations, and its reach does not extend beyond the United States. Internationally, FAA spokesman Paul Takemoto said, "It's a mixed bag. You could pick 10 countries and have 10 different levels of Y2K readiness.

"But planes are not going to fall out of the sky; radio signals are not affected," he added, though so many other systems bear on traffic worldwide "that there may well be international delays."

-- Norm (, March 15, 1999



-- Puddintame (, March 15, 1999.

Hi Norm. This is indeed good news. The problem is that I've heard the same story 50 times. Why can't I find 50 stories like this? <:)=

-- Sysman (, March 15, 1999.

DOT may ground U.S. planes on Y2K...,4,33774,00.html?owv

Seinfeld did a bit on reservations on an episode of his show. Anyone can take reservations, it's keeping them that's important.

If there aren't any problems with the reservation system, that's great. Unfortunately, making travel reservations is one of the least of my concerns. If this were an announcement from the utility companies, I'd be gleeful.

-- d (d@usedtobedgi.old), March 15, 1999.

Incidently, "radio signals are not affected." Duh! The FCC annouced today that radio waves will no longer function due to the Y2K computer bug. Gravity may also be affected...

-- d (d@usedtobedgi.old), March 15, 1999.

Kos-skin-em advises that all citizens should prepare for three to five days of things falling up...

-- d (d@usedtobedgi.old), March 15, 1999.

They still don't understand the nature of the problem. What good will it do to book a flight, car, or hotel reservation when there will be no power, water of food to allow you to make the trip? If they understood the ripple effect (see earlier post) then they might realize this. These travel companies just want you to run up your charge card making reservations for trips that will never happen. They will then say that it is not their fault the airline didn't fly and you'll never see your money again.

-- @ (@@@.@), March 15, 1999.

Question.... How do you pay for these hotels, rental cars flights, etc. with a non-compliant banking industry? Y2K IS SYSTEMIC......

Weiss Rating Service recently reported that 32% of banks missed a major remediation deadline last month I believe...

Oh ya... Gas Lines in 2000

No biggy though..... DGI's go back to sleep.....

-- PJC (, March 15, 1999.

Even if there were no Y2K bug crisis, I would not fly on Jan. 1 2000 even if you gave me free round-trip tickets to anywhere. According to those bookings compared to last year, that's 4 times more traffic than there was this January when I went on a trip to the Islands. The airport congestion and baggage claims were horrendous then. There were overbookings on our flights, several people had their baggage leave on the wrong flight. I can just imagine next year. Throw in a little glitch here and there, and you have camp grounds and mayhem in the airports.

-- Chris (, March 15, 1999.


It is good news, in of itself. Now I want to hear the same from:



Electric utilities;

Water Systems;

Sewage facilities;

Oil refineries;

Chemical plants;

Bio-hazard facilities;


Pharmaceutical industry;


Gas industry;



AND ALL THE REST.............

-- More (, March 15, 1999.

The info on all of the ones you have listed is out there if you look for it. Or do you expect someone else to do it for you?

-- Cherri (, March 15, 1999.

Why is it okay to make reservations but it's not okay to have reservations?

Mr. K.......

-- Mr. K (, March 15, 1999.

Note to PJC-

Y2K is systemic, you say. You probably know this since Gary North tells you so.

Anyway, as the article states, the Apollo and Galileo systems are linked to "158,360 travel agency terminals and connect with 520 airlines, 225 hotel companies, 44 car rental companies and 346 cruise and tour companies in 104 countries."

Do you think that every one of these organizations is 100% Y2K compliant? Do you even think that Galileo and Apollo are 100% compliant?

I would submit that many of these companies are not ready for Y2K. Yet, the system functions.

-- It's called a brain-use it (, March 15, 1999.

Hey Normie,

I know the Post Office is going to be a.o.k.

Right Norm?


-- Cliff (, March 15, 1999.


Yes, I've read report after report. Haven't seen any good news. What reports have you been looking at?

Actions speak louder than words. Governmental actions worldwide indicate likelihood of big problems.

-- More (, March 15, 1999.

Just a former COBOL programmer, Norm

A compliant bank, Norm?

While you try and think of one I'll have the time to reply...

You're NOT doing your homework...

Why are you trying to convince people that the problem is overblown? You're simply in denial. Also..

"The masses are incurably ignorant"....Plato

Now what bank is compliant? What Fortune 1000 company is compliant? Is your employer compliant?

-- PJC (, March 15, 1999.


Here's one

It's ComEd's Y2K status report. In November, they only had 17% of embedded systems fixed, tested and deployed. That number is now up to 94% ComEd supplies power to 3.4 million people in the Chicago area.

Now go out and do your own homework. Don't wait for Gary North to bring it to you.

PJC- I've talked to 2 people who run the Y2K programs at two very major banks in Chicago. One is a neighbor. He said the main issue facing the banks is panic, and that isn't even is as great as you would think. You may want to talk to some IT banking people before just blurting out your "Y2K is systemic" line.

-- it's called a brain-use it (, March 15, 1999.

Mid-America Federal in Chicago is compliant, as are several others. It's my understanding that banks cannot announce their compliancy at this point, and the reasoning is simple. (I think it's the Fed that made this rule, but I'm not sure) If Bank A announces that it is compliant, and Bank B announces that it is not, people will pull their deposits out of bank B and put them in Bank A. So if your Weiss survey numbers are correct, and if banks were to announce their status tomorrow, there is a significant chance that at least 32% of banks would end up in serious financial trouble, if not go under, irregardless of whether it is warranted or not. Fairly logical.

-- it's called a brain-use it (, March 15, 1999.


Thanks so much for proving the point of the thread :)

We have several banks here in nyc which are bragiing over compliancy

Download the citibank PDF files to check their status if you care to.

The last banking drop dead dealine was 12/31/1998. The reports being generally posted, by both GIs and DGIS is that 17% missed this date. This was a date for full internal compliance. Is the glass half full or half empty. DGIS might say its 83% full GIS might say its 13 % empty. If your lookin forr that percentage to go to 0% , might as well dig your bunker now. BTW we dont think of it as failure we think of it as potential takeover targets :) . You might say of the 7 faces of Y2k, the financial industry are the vultures :) Got red meat?


-- nyc (, March 15, 1999.

"mr. its a brain use it"'ll have to eat your blurt.

According to ComEd: QUOTE:The Inventory phase was completed in December of 1996. A detailed Inventory Analysis & Pilot Conversion were conducted by mid-1997 and the results were used to develop a master conversion schedule. This master schedule outlines the renovation work to be completed in the final phase, Conversion & Testing, which is well underway. A rigorous testing program has been implemented to ensure that converted systems and applications process dates from this century and beyond.

A significant number of ComEd systems were renovated by year-end 1998 and are now Year 2000 ready. Our goal is to finish Company-wide Year 2000 readiness by the end of the 2nd quarter in 1999."

Ahem.... they didn't make kryptonite-busting strides within 4 months. It has been 2 years and some months. They're still not done.

Interestingly enough, they had the gaul to post this about consumers of electricity. Note that WE will be the cause of severe electrical disruptions.....certainly not THEM!!! It's critical that utilities and customers communicate with each other about their Y2k plans and programs. For instance, severe disruptions could result if too many customers suddenly shut off equipment at 11:50 p.m. on December 31, 1999 (without notifying their local utility), then turn it all back on again at 12:10 a.m. on January 1, 2000.

This is enough to make one nauseous. I know I am.

Mr. K ***who sees what is spewed forth from utilities***

-- Mr. Kennedy (, March 15, 1999.

It's called a brain use it,

My brain is functioning just fine thank you. It is working on a broader spectrum than yours appears to be.

To understand the magnitude of this you need to have well developed synthetic reasoning skills. You also need to be able to deal with copious amounts of logic and commonsense to comprehend the nature and scope of the impacts associated with (ALL) aspects of the Y2K problem.

My brain is telling me to move on from this trivial debate.

-- More (, March 15, 1999.

Mr. Kennedy,

I admire your effort and patience in trying to demonstrate how to use brain power and reasoning skills to, it's called a brain use it.

I regret that I just couldn't be bothered. It seemed too much like trying to flog a dead horse to me.

-- More (, March 16, 1999.

Thanks Gary, er, I mean, Mr. K.

If you looked at the status report and chart, you would see that ComED is 94% finished with embedded systems and 79% finished with software remediation. In November, (which is now unavailable) I remember only 13 or 17% of embedded systems were assessed, fixed, and tested and deployed. Contrary to what you say, they have made significant strides in the last several months.

I'm not surprised that utilities won't guarantee power. Try calling one during a thunder or windstorm. I bet they won't do guarantee it..

If everyone was to turn off the power at the same time, and then turn it back on at the same time, of course it would cause disruptions in power. Have you ever had someone flush the toilet on you while you were in the shower?

Of course, you already know how the utilities lie. It's the same with the banks, the government, and the major corporations in the world. Thousands of CEO's, CIO's, and government officials are conspiring to keep that information from us. There is no chance that it will leak out to the general public, just like the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

It's a good thing that we have keepers of the truth around like yourself, who can prove how everything will go wrong come 2000.

Are you a Gary North follower, per chance?

-- it's called a brain- use it (, March 16, 1999.


Face it. If I told you that a utility was 100% and was validated by a third party, you'd discount it anyway. Don't purport to be out there waiting for a positive news story when you are really not. You'll selectively filter through the info and draw your own conclusions, anyway.

-- It's called a brain-use it (, March 16, 1999.

it's called a brain use it,

Hello! In my original post I accepted the good news. Just said it wasn't enough.

Mr. Kennedy,

I think my point has been proven....


It really is time to move on.

-- More (, March 16, 1999.


You really should move on. Especially if you think Mr. K's pointless rambling is a decent response.

-- it's called a brain-use it (, March 16, 1999.

Bye bye now little one. Run along and play with the others. And remember we'll spank you again if you eat the stuffing out of your diaper.

Mr. K

-- Mr. K (humored@his.stupidity), March 16, 1999.

Odd and Ends

JOHNSON CONTROLS (Building controls) Leading worldwide supplier of building control systems, services and integrated facility management to education, health care, office, government and retail sectors. Customers include Ameritech, Bank of America, Glaxo, IBM, J.C. Penney, as well as 7,000 U.S. school districts, more than 2,000 hospitals and tens of thousands of other non-residential and government buildings. Many Johnson Controls customers have requested information from us regarding the operation of our electronic control systems during the transition from the year 1999 to 2000. Johnson Controls conducted extensive testing on our products and has developed solutions for all year 2000 issues discovered. All current systems are year 2000 compliant with the software version available at the end of the calendar year 1997. This includes Metasys (at Revision 9), SDC-8000, Facilitator and the Companion product families. JC/85/40 systems are also year 2000 compliant (at Revision L000). Personal computers involved in the operation of these systems will have to be checked individually for issues involving operating system BIOS. Year 2000 compliant means that the product will manage dates and date calculations properly prior to, during and after the calendar year 2000. This includes leap year calculations, date rollover, date-based logs, reports and calculations. ****************** Fire-Lite Alarms web site. you can find their Y2K compliance info at this site. ****************** Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) International is a premier network of over 16,500 commercial real estate professionals BOMA International represents 84 United States, ten Canadian, and seven overseas associations in Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, the Philippines and South Africa. BOMA is committed to helping commercial real estate professionals prepare their buildings for the Year 2000 through timely information. BOMA is pleased to post relevant articles pertaining to the Millenium Bug on its Web site. You will also notice that we have established a Year 2000 Special Interest Group (SIG) where users can download articles, read and post messages and even chat in real time. Letters of compliance from; Andover Controls Corporation Dover Elevators Kastle Systems, Inc. Montgomery KONE Otis Elevator Company Timberline Software Corporation The Trane Company U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development York International The letter from Andover Controls Corperation was especially reasuring; "As the technology leader in advanced micro-processor based building controls systems, Andover's engineers anticipated, planned, and tested for date transition from 1999 to 2000 when out building control products were originally developed". ******************** com/AF/index.html go to their search and put in; year2k You will get this article.

Year 2000 Computer Problem No Cause of Worry for Fleets

Although cars are unaffected, it's costing GM alone an estimated $360 to $500 million to debug the Year 2000 problems in its other date-sensitive computers, which are unable to recognize a year higher than '99.

Cars and trucks should be unaffected by the Y2K computer woes. Ignorance, thus, is really bliss for fleet managers concerned over all the hoopla about the problem.

Onboard computer systems will remain stable, unlike a lot of bigger computers that will wig out because they can't figure out the year.

That's because automotive black boxes can't recognize any date. They are, in "computerese," not "date-sensitive." For their operations, the date is meaningless. Time, in chunks larger than microseconds, means nothing to these engine-controlled devices.

But Y2K isn't good for a whole host of operations that do take the passage of time into consideration. That affects a lot of what automobile companies do, but not what their cars do.

(Bad news for people who have to have a new car every year) ********************** >

Transit discussion groups

fdoor backdoor-index to apta--transit page

Sample embedded systems inventory from a large transit system

Huston Transit ************** Trains Amtrak -



NS -

UP - --

This site shows the daily status of US nuclear power plants.

This site has descriptions of just about everything that has to do with computing software and hardware and more. Frames No frames

-- Cherri (, March 16, 1999.

Mr. K

Please tell me, clearly and concisely, how I am wrong.

Also. explain to me how you know what the utilities spew forth.

I'm pretty certain that the inventory phase for software remediation began in 1996. I don't think embedded systems began until late 97/early 98.

-- it's called a brain-use it (, March 16, 1999.

Well, let's see. we've gone from "Here's documentation" to an unspoken "Aw, you're quoting the wrong version" (which is as may be since neither of the quotes contained date of publication) to

I'm pretty certain that the inventory phase for software remediation began in 1996. I don't think embedded systems began until late 97/early 98.

"I'm pretty certain" and "I don't think" carry the same weight from both sides.

Documentaion time, dudes, or don't bother.


Still waiting for the same level and type of DATA that got me to this point.

-- Chuck, a night driver (, March 16, 1999.

it is true to say that most organisations will have fixed y2k, look how much money they've spent, it was probably not a big deal fixing the reservation systems

the real unknown is how many companies will NOT have fixed y2k, we need to look at overall stats, not just individual cases, I believe the 5-10% of comnpanies not fixing y2k a) will obviously not come clean b) will cause a recession c) will cause supply disruptions

-- dick of the dale (, March 16, 1999.

Dear Brain ( LESS ); Few here will argue the point, that most of the y2k problems in the U.S. will be fixed. The question that remains is, how much will break, and how much will go down with it when it does.

Got common sense?

-- SCOTTY (, March 16, 1999.

Your missing the point of the entire article - there is no good news in it - at all.

Yes - people with more money that sense have made reservations in exotic locations all over - according to one very small travel company magazine (

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (, March 16, 1999.

(to continue from previous)

Rueters (as an institution) has merrily toes the administration's line about putting a happy face on each story released. Here, they repeated the "successful" Galileo reservation turnover (happened back in early Feb - that's news?), and based on this travel magazine, are now reporting more people are making reservations for the News Years' celebrations in these "exotic (red expensive) locations) than last year - this is not surprising - it's a 1000 year turnover.

These reports cater to the second travel reservation system's advertisers and readers. Profit is a motive here? The story also gives a survey - again- showing that CIO magazine shows 41% would not fly, down from 60% last year. So? If half of CIO's say they would not fly, is that not more important than the 48% that believe the lies now now being pushed by the scared FAA administrator? Given the readiness and responses to Y2K to date from US businesses and government agencies, would you believe what a CIO says anyway? Who do you think got us in this mess anyway?

It doesn't matter how many stock market yuppies plan on flying or going to exotic places - they are not there yet. More to the point, they may be able to get "there" easily in late December 1999, but may I lay a bet with you about their chances of returning safely and on schedule? Getting there, in this case, may be the only fun they have. A few yuppies can make all the plans they want, can travel as much as they want, and it doesn't mean anything as an indicator of the potential for troubles next year caused by Y2K.

Surveys and polls influence politics - as people were manipulated by a compliant media, they kept Clinton in office last month. Polls are a very powerful influence on people. But the programs and processes don't care what anybody thinks - they will fail, or continue working properly, regardless of what the "polls" claim people think. Regardless of the bias of the new media either, particularly this source that has skewed and distorted stories on Y2K in the past, most recently their last interview with Mr. Koskinen.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (, March 16, 1999.

Please tell me, clearly and concisely, how I am wrong.

Refer to the post above where I Quoted directly from the ComEd site. Try to read it this time.http://www Also. explain to me how you know what the utilities spew forth.

It's called study, deductive reasoning, and data comparison.

I'm pretty certain that the inventory phase for software remediation began in 1996. I don't think embedded systems began until late 97/early 98.

As I said before, read what I posted. ComEd stated that they started inventory in December of 1996. If you want to nit-pick at software/embedded system past time frames and schedules, be my guest.
The facts are that companies including banks and utilities are not obligated to tell us (John Q Public) any more than they want us to know at this point. The lights are on right now, and so long as they have a breath of air between now and Y2K consequences, they'll say they are "right on it" and "doing all they can to stay on top of the situation". So, go right ahead and agree with them. Listen to them. Flush you toilets, flip your lights, dance naked, turn up the heat, call and make reservations to Tahiti. Enjoy it while you can. It may be a long time before you get to do it again. Mr. K ***who will be elsewhere on other threads by now***

-- Mr. Kennedy (, March 16, 1999.

bold off

-- Mr. K (, March 16, 1999.

durn ornary bold

-- Mr. K (, March 16, 1999.

"If this were an announcement from the utility companies, I'd be gleeful. "

Ah, but you do have an announcement from the electric utilities. You just don't believe them.

-- There's new (, March 16, 1999.


Where are you?


There's new,

I don't think it's that some of us "just don't believe". I think some of us are just questioning what we "hear" and "read".

My reasoning is that due to the magnitude of this thing I cannot afford to not question and look deeper.

Your reasoning is to accept on blind faith. If that works for you - fine. It just doesn't work for me. It never has done.

BTW---Czar Kos-ki-nen himself advocates questioning all that you read and hear from the utilities.

-- Interesting (, March 16, 1999.

it's called a brain-use it (,

Self-reported data is useless. In fact, it is less than useless. It's dangerous because it masquerades as the truth. It may *be* the truth, but it is irrevocably tainted by the self-interest of the self- reporting party.

If I was applying for a job at McDonald's that I desperately needed because my famnily was going hungry -- but I also had a debilitating problem, like narcolepsy or a tumor -- I would be very likely to keep quiet about my problem. That wouldn't mean the problem wasn't there.

But if a third-party diagnosed me as cured, and put me through end-to- end tests with the fry machine, the milkshake maker, and the mop, then maybe I'd be a worthwhile investment on the part of McD's.

In all seriousness, a utility, government agency, or manufacturing corporation has virtually no interest in admitting to debilitating Y2K problems. That doesn't mean they are all lying; it does mean that their self-reported assurances are inherently suspect.

My advice to you? Follow the advice of your pseudonym. Or go apply for a job at McDonald's.

regards, scott

-- Scott Johnson (, March 16, 1999.

...plain text, please!

-- Scott Johnson (, March 16, 1999.

[Click!] .. Industrial-strength bold off.

-- Dan (, March 16, 1999.

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