I've been following the flow of question and answers on this site for about a month now, and I am impressed by how well you all seem to research all of your opinions and search for other sites that back up that opinion.

However, I would really be interested to find out what the 'experts' guess is, in concerns to what is going to happen. Ofcourse, if you wish to back up your opinion with coroborating evidence, please do so. However, after all of the research that you have done, "What is likely to happen?" I just want your opinion or "best guess" on whether power is going to go out, for how long etc. If power is going to go out, is it because it was 'turned off' or because of an actual computer bug.

If you want, you can expand your opinion to include what you think social resposes might be (rioters, or the best of man coming out to solve the problem), what information will hit the public as we get closer. Even if you think that some terrorist group wants to start a war or something. I would prefer if it was mostly kept to the power side of it though (mostly because this is not my site!)

I just realized that I'm sort of leading opinions with the text above. If you believe that nothing is going to happen, or at least very little (negative things, anyway), then I would like to hear that too.

Again, don't feel limited to what you can 'prove', just what you think is likely. Thanks for any responses and ideas that you wish to offer.

-- Anonymous, March 15, 1999

Answers

Sean,

Why not just take the government appraisal of electric problems? Keeping in mind that they never give you the gloomy picture, nevertheless they expect at least some local power outages, and local has been defined as statewide. Then look at the oil supply problems, international banking, etc. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to smell trouble, big trouble. Oh, and the military and national guard both here and in other countries is preparing for civil disorder. That should point you in the right direction.

-- Anonymous, March 16, 1999

Gordon,

I guess I just wanted to hear the obvious from someone whose opinion I respected on this issue. Most of what you hear on the news websites is double talk. One person will call moderate bad, another will call no problems. I wanted see if there was a general concesus with those who were actually researching, and working on the actual problem. Thanks for you response.

-- Anonymous, March 16, 1999

Sean, I'm sure you'll understand when I tell you that yours is not the first question of this type to be posted here. (It probably won't be the last, either!) That's why I'm going to direct you to some past threads which are still applicable. Check out the "Poll: Will the grid work?" thread at:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000DoY

If you haven't read the interview of Rick Cowles at the CBN site, that also has information on possibilities. It's the Special Feature at:

http://www.cbn.org/y2k/

There is also a discussion of post-Y2K problems and fixes in the thread, "Can Y2K problems be fixed in 15-20 days?" This can be accessed at:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000TGi

I hope this helps. There are also many other insights to be gained by perusing some of the older threads on this forum. You or anyone else who hasn't been following this site for many months might find some of them very interesting if you have the time to spend doing it.

-- Anonymous, March 16, 1999

Sean,

There is a site that you can use to establish your own perspective: www.house.gov/reform/gmit/index.htm This is the Gov. Management, Information, and Technology website. Go to "hearings" on the side bar and you will be on a page full of congressional hearings about y2k readiness reported by several responsible people in each area of interest to Congress. Now there's nothing on a platter here - you have to wade through several opinions and keep in mind, not of few of these people have their careers to look after. The best assessments I've found are by the Inspectors General or other officials from the General Accounting Office (GAO) - they tell it like it is. When you see things like "80% compliant" when only a year ago the agency being audited had NO Y2K PLAN, you had better look into the fine print... Others have discussed on this Q&A page the facts about the government trying to prevent panic and industry not being willing to admit vulnerability to y2k issues, so we have to take the time to read between the rosey "bump in the road" lines and discover the real impact on each of us personally I wish you well on your y2k education... you had better cram very fast - finals are only a few months away at best!

BOL Bob-O

-- Anonymous, March 16, 1999

Sure, here is my two cents.

Six to twelve months ago, I would have agreed that localized, (statewide), temporary (1-3 day) blackouts could have occured.

Based on my ongoing Y2K experience in electric utilties and communications with many other utilties, here is my current personal opinion on the power grid. Greater than 95% of the US population will experence a uninterupted supply of power throughout all critical Y2K dates.

What do I base this on? The number of Y2K problems in most utilities that might interupt power to a customer range from very few to none. We can fix these very few. It is possible that Y2K problems external to one utility can cause problems to another via the grid. However, most of these other utilities also have very few/no problems that can cause power interuptions. And remember, while it is possible that a grid disturbance can propagate widely, it is also very rare. The current operational plans for the grid on key rollover dates will make that low probability almost non-existent.

This is not to say that you should ignore all personal contingency plans. You need to be comfortable with your own view of the world. But consider the difference between expenditures that you can easily recover if/when Y2K turns out not to be an infrastructure problem, verses those things some people are trying to sell you that you will be stuck with.

bob

-- Anonymous, March 17, 1999

This is why I don't offer advice on personal planning - everyone has their own threshold of risk tolerance and what's appropriate -vs- what's not. The person on 16 hour per day home dialysis has a much lower risk tolerance than the person of relatively young age and good health. Personal economics and risk tolerance have a lot to do with any type of insurance policy you decide upon.

To address the rest of this thread, let's say, for the sake of argument, that Bob is right, and 95% of North America will see very little impact regarding reliable power from Y2k. That would be cold comfort (not to get involved in a pun contest) to the unlucky 5 percenters in the Northern U.S. during January.

I would hazard a guess that much less than one tenth of one percent of all North American electricity users are impacted by outages on any given day from all causes. And I'm sure that well less than 5% of all North American electricity customers were impacted by the icestorms in New England and Canada last year, as bad as that was.

So, I suppose, it's a matter of degree, and to use a trite Dirty Harry phrase: "Do you feel lucky today?"

-- Anonymous, March 18, 1999

Rick:

I have to agree with you in regards to having some knowledge of the doom and gloom side. We should all take a look at our own situation and judge how bad things could be, and how to prepare for them.

As I've said before, I'm already prepared for the 'Best Case' Scenario. Thanks to all of you for answering!

-- Anonymous, March 18, 1999

I think Rick's point about individualized responses is spot on. Miami in January is not upstate NY. If I understand Peter deJager's latest "clarification" he is saying that while doomsday has been avoided, he is still recommending preparations for somethng as bad as last winter's Montreal ice storm - which was about one week in the major cities and up to five weeks elsewhere. Five weeks of power, water, and food chain disruptions in, say, Buffalo is not the same as five such weeks in Baton Rouge. Location, personal risk tolerance, occupation, and resources are too varied for a one size fits all plan even for an agreed to single scenario, much less the spectrum that exists.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 1999

...about individualized responses...

Location, personal risk tolerance, occupation, and resources are too varied for a one size fits all plan even for an agreed to single scenario, much less the spectrum that exists.

This is what makes meeting my neighbor face to face so important. My neighbors' needs are what should be driving local contingency planning - Not the specific needs of DC, or Miami-Dade, or Boulder.

~C~

-- Anonymous, March 20, 1999

This is such a difficult question, because as we are all aware, y2k is a problem related to our interdependency.

Not being an engineer or programmer, I can only summarize what I hear from the real experts. As it relates to electric power, here are the risks (low risk = less than 5% chance; moderate risk = 5-25% chance, high risk = >25% chance):

-y2k-induced system failure/shutdown during the 12/31-01/01 rollover, within a single power generation plant: low risk.

-Serious Y2k errors within power transmission/distribution network: low(large co.'s) to moderate (small companies) risk.

-Extra generating facilities will be activated to increase the margin of surplus during the rollover: high probability.

-A combination of factors (winter, holiday weekend, night-time), will mean that surplus juice is abundant, buffering against any possible failures: near certainty.

-A few (but not all) nuclear power plants will be forced to go offline due to safety-litigation concerns re, y2k: moderate risk. -We will be lulled into a false sense of complacency if the North American power grids go through Jan. 1 unscathed: high risk.

-Supply chain problems during 2000 will make normal maintenance and repairs of power systems more difficult, sensitizing them to non-y2k outages that occur in greater frequency and of longer duration: high risk.

-Coal has a hard time getting to the coal-burning electric plants after Jan. 1, due to railroad gridlock: moderate risk.

-Solar flares that max some time in 2000 will fry transmission systems, causing huge non-y2k related blackouts: moderate risk.

-Hackers will try to take down the power grid during or after the Jan. 1 rollover: high probability.

-Hackers will *succeed* in taking down the nation's power grids during or shortly after the Jan. 1 rollover: moderate risk.

-Power grids will fail elsewhere in the world, directly because of y2k: high risk.

-Social problems here in the States will affect the ability of electricity to flow: low risk.

-The power will be "flickery" during the night of Dec. 31 to Jan. 1, but won't actually go out completely: high risk.

-Terrorists, whether domestic or foreign, will seek to exploit what they perceive is a great moment (Jan. 1) to lash out at the "great Satan": high risk.

-The summer of 00 is when a nation-wide blackout occurs due to a combination of factors, some of which are y2k-related, some of which are not (powerco deregulation, high electricity use and low margin of surplus, solar flare activity, y2k errors plague controls so that things work, just not as efficiently, etc.): moderate-high risk.

There, that's my humble opinion. Add up all the risks, and I'd say that there is a good probability that 00 is going to be "interesting" from the perspective of electric power.

-- Anonymous, March 22, 1999

I tend to agree with Bob, I have worked for a utilities company (electric) and a telecommunications company in IT and I believe there to be a 95% chance of uninterrupted power and telecommunications over the new year. But jeez Bob what's with "Y2kguru number one", what was the address GOD@home.com already taken!!!

-- Anonymous, March 26, 1999

Very enjoyable reading in this thread! Coprolith, many things you listed makes one think. I was very tempted to offer my own forcast, but fought the urge;)

Wait - let me offer this one, with the help of North type Y2K doomsday experts, Y2k will re-emerge in 2000 as Y2.001K and the cash cow will generate another few million, since there are software bugs that will occur on 12-30-2000 that will have slipped by (not everyones Y2K testing tests for that date and its a 366 day leap year on the century mark - and yes, I have seen problems with this date).

Better make that a two year supply of food...

Regards, FactFinder

Y2.001K - ARE YOU READY? (copywrite 1999, FactFinder)

-- Anonymous, March 26, 1999

Woops, Shoulda said 12-31-2000, but my fingers are non-Y2.001 compliant tonight.

Regards,

FactFinder

-- Anonymous, March 26, 1999