This is a reasonably well-written article from CNN. In it, businesses are encouraged to "plan for the extraordinary" in early-2000. Gee, I guess like a winter storm? Oh, EXTRAORDINARY. Glad I didn't write that myself on a Yourdon thread. Phew.

For example, one year-2000 mgr was told by a S.F. power company that they couldn't guarantee power and they should look for alternative sources. Hmmm, that's kooky. You mean, like a generator? Oh, but they're a business, so that makes it reasonable. You didn't mean "citizens ....".

For another instance, contingency plans should "include plans to prepare for the slow failure of the supply system." I'm sorry, what did you say? Failure? Shhh now, those Yourdonites who urge that even as a mere possibility are PARANOID WACKOS. Imagine urging people to PLAN for that as a possibility.

Wait, you say that IT and business should work together to "stockpile materials"? Is this for that winter storm warning? Something more? Something more.

Oh, and "practice drills" should be held. You mean, like Arnie Rimmer has been doing?

Forgive the sarcasm, but it is apparently just fine when CNN does this kind of reporting, but not when we speak that way here on the forum. Troll alert. Oh, and by the way, this reflects reporting-quotes from Gartner and other mainstream consultants, with an IDG source tag on the article.

Certainly, seriously now, this is just an article about contingency planning, not about predicted impacts (with the exception of the speculation about the supply chain). But that is exactly what we are doing much of the time here: contingency planning, based on speculation (and if you don't think Gartner/Giga/Meta aren't speculating, only they get paid big bucks to do it, you don't know the research game).

So, to CNN, the Gartner Group and the others: thanks for the confirmation of our work.

CNN: Planning Beyond Y2K Disruptions

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 15, 1999

Answers

i've participated in enough drills to know how necessary they are, not just for groups but for individuals. families should definitely have regular y2k drills.

-- jocelyne slough (jonslough@tln.net), March 15, 1999.

Good post Bid Dog. Sarcasm in instances like this is stress releaving and healthy ;-)

For years we've been told to practice "fire drills" with escape routes in my house. We've done it several times over the years with the kids. The whole drill as recommended by the fire dept. I have smoke alarms in every room and floors and fire extinguishers.

But I never had a fire in my house, not so much as a stove flame (touching wood). We must be wackos extremist, eh. The schools too, gee, scaring kids like that with fire drills.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), March 15, 1999.

BigDog - I think they are saying that a business will surely fail (within days) if it has no power. So they really should find an alternative. People, on the other hand, can last a little longer without it. My power company (Jax Electric Authority) won't gaurantee power this afternoon, much less 10 months from now.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), March 15, 1999.

The K-man made it clear at last week's press conference that individuals aren't supposed to stockpile, not because it isn't a prudent idea, but because there isn't enough to go around. Surely there isn't enough of whatever businesses and governments should be stockpiling either, is there? In that case, what will be the impacts on the economy of that natural selection force?

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), March 15, 1999.

"the slow failure of the supply system"

I wonder if that is anything like "just in time" inventory systems coming apart at the seams.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), March 15, 1999.

That's exactly what he said, Brooks. And here we are going in circles again; is it better to crash the entire system of JITD, banking etc. now by encouraging everyone to prepare, or wait and see if it crashes on us in 2000?

I haven't found the answer to that in all the months I've been a GI, and so I just worry about myself and my family and prepare, as it is my right. The "system" has already failed us, for just having this dilema.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), March 15, 1999.

Stocking some supplies and having contingency plans for short-term problems isn't wacko. However, declaring that you are certain that the entire infrastructure will go down and never recover, buying years-worth of supplies, stocking up an armory, and building a bunker might be considered a little wacko though.

-- just don't go over board (moderation@all.times), March 15, 1999.

Chris, you took the words out of my mouth! (Again!)

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), March 15, 1999.

Deano --- Yes, but. We don't know how long outages *might* be. 1 day is different than 3 days is different than 7 days, especially here in the North country. Repeated outages different than one-offs. I'm not predicting it (I'm modestly optimistic actually about power with exception of fuel shortages later), but the situation is uncertain. I still don't see any difference in principle between business and citizens in any area (heck, power companies can "urge" citizens to have flashlights and oil lamps for all I care).

Chris --- ROTFL. Fire drills are perfect analogy.

Brooks et al. Rick Cowles has been saying for some time that one of the biggest problems with remediation (forget inventory stockpiling) will be the competition all at once for needed parts that are ordinarily supplied over a multi-year period. "All at once" is across 1999 but parts usually ordered across 1999-2002.

This is indeed a black hole of uncertainty, but one can reasonably assume that the current JIT system will be stressed intensely AT A MINIMUM, beginning (???) summer, 1999?

And, fact is, ordinary folk are preparing in ever greater numbers. Most I know say to themselves (sincerely thinking themselves shrewd about their money), "I'll wait until October, see how things are and then do 'x'." Rotsa ruck.

I hope those of us on this forum who are reading this (polly or doom or anywhere in between) can at least agree to stop fighting each other over the REASONABLENESS of serious preparation.

Yes, bunkers, armories and years of supplies might be considered wacko by many (though our fellow citizens are free, at least as of now, to purchase anything in our consumer society that pleases their little hearts, so what's to care?), but even most of the intense GIs on this forum are only purchasing 3 months to 1 year of most things.

"Prepare for the extraordinary" is actually a wonderful phrase and I may use it as my own personal tag line here for a while.

--- BigDog (preparing for the extraordinary as per CNN)

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 15, 1999.

justdon'tgooverboard,

Take a look around. Do you see any signs of moderation? McDonalds, Burger Kings, Sams Clubs, Beanie Baby stalls/stands, et al. Restaurants offering all you can eat for one flat rate. Puhleezeee!! There is no moderation mind-set in our country.

The majority of us have been living in overdrive-mode for years. We have been conditioned for it through advertising. It's what's been keeping the almighty economic machine chugging right along.

When more people find out about Y2K they will act like they have been conditioned to act. They shall go right into overdrive and buy whatever they think they need and should have.

1. Y2K is a big problemo.

2. When people find out about it.

3. Their ingrained desire for survival will surface.

4. They will go into overdrive-mode just like they have been conditioned to do.

5. JITD that has been created will not be able to cope. 6. Banks will not be able to cope.

7. PANIC will then be blamed for all the problems that the Y2K problemo caused.

Y2K PROBLEMO = PANICO

-- We don't (live@moderation.com), March 15, 1999.

We don't live --- how true. What I love is how people tell me they can't "afford" to prepare while they prepare for spending a few K ASAP on what previous generations would have considered absolute luxury. If some of us don't always sound entirely sympathetic to the "ain't it gonna be awful for those poor DGIs next year," this is one of the reasons.

Don't mean to sound pedantic but let's keep our eye on the ball of this thread, which is ironic enough. Whether JIT works or collapses, the civic fallacy here is that corporations are joyously and sincerely exhorted to do the VERY thing that we, as citizens are warned against: contingency plans, stockpiling, drills, energy alternatives et al.

Should corporations do so. You betcha. So should Johnny, Sally, Susie, Biff and Junior.

Plans (what if 'x' happens? 'y'?). Drills. This isn't just about buying stuff, though that obviously plays important role.

I wonder how/when/whether corporations are going to consider the need for their employees to have personal plans, adequate sense of personal security so that they are willing/able to come into work for the corporation? We have been brainstorming that for our very small business for some time. Sure seems logical to this silly GI. But I'm clueless.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 15, 1999.

Deano, in an earlier post sometime around the first of the year, you said that you held in your hot little hooves a Y2K compliance letter from JEA. Has there been a turn of events or what? Don't make me find the post. :)

-- MoVe Immediate (MVI@yepimhere.com), March 15, 1999.

Hi Big Dog! Let me return the compliment. Now it's me who thinks that you have stumbled onto something.

I recommend that you coin a name for advice which urges companies to prepare in a manner discouraged for individuals.

That is to say, so long as the govt is encouraging families to prepare for three days, advice urging institutions to prepare for a longer time should be noted and posted on this forum.

I invite all readers to suggest a name for such an example, but I nominate Big Dog to make the decision as to what to call it. From then on, each headline of a new example could refer to a "_____" alert.

-- GA Russell (garussell@russellga.com), March 15, 1999.