How did Yardeni do at previous attempts at y2k prognostication?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
While looking around at Yardeni's recent Y2K Reporter, I followed a link to a archived issue from 1/5/99, with the following fascinating two sections. It would seem that he was overly pessimistic about 1998 and early 1999. What does everyone think about his speculation of the remainder of 1999 and 2000? FWIW, I don't think he's flipped on his 70% chance of recession - it just looks like he qualified it into catagories.
HYPOTHETICAL Y2K HEADLINES, 1998-99
Economist Sees 40% Odds Of Recession On 1/1/00
Rep. Horn Asserts US Agencies Will Fail Y2K Test
White House Says Congressman Is Y2K Alarmist
Y2K Progress Report Card: Agencies Are Flunking
IRS In Peril As Programmers Leave For More $
White House Concedes Key Agencies Will Fail
Clinton Orders Agencies To Prepare For Worst
Economist Raises Odds Of Y2K Recession To 60%
Economist Predicts 30%-Plus Stock Dive In 1999
Banks Start Taking Feds Y2K Stress Test
Oh, Oh: Fed Auctions Banks That Might Fail In 00
As Demand Soars, Treasury Prints More $100 Bills
Year-Ahead Computing Programs Crashing
Credit Card Expires In 00? Leave Home Without It!
Credit Crunch! Bankers Say No To Y2K Deadbeats
Y2K-Related Restructuring & Bankruptcies Soar
Euro And Year 2000 Will Not Compute In Europe
Weak Jobs Data: Fed Cuts Rates, Stocks Still Dive
Economist Says Y2K Recession Ahead Of Schedule
9/9/99 Date Crashes Some Computer Systems
Clinton Tells Nation Y2K Problems Will Be Minor
Blackout! NRC Shuts Y2K-Challenged Nuke Plants
Forbes Blames Clinton/Gore For Coming Disaster
FAA Not Ready To Fly In 2000
Airlines Cancel Many Flights
Airline Group Adds 20 More No Fly Zones Abroad
Travelers Cancel Caribbean Vacation Plans
Dow Plunges Again Led By Transport Index
Happy New Year! Who Shut Off The Lights?
Y2K Hangover: Americans Stranded Overseas
Coal-Short Electric Plants Strain Power Grid
Lights Out In Japan
Parisian Rioters Demand More Candles
Derailed By Y2K: Union Pacific Was Warm-Up Act
UN Resolution Extends Y2K Holiday Thru Feb
Busy Signal: Phone System Under Y2K Stress
Gates Says His Software Not Source Of PC Woes
Morgan Stanleys Roach Sees Anti-Tech Backlash
Gates Attacks Plan To Nationalize His Industry
Detroit Hits Brakes: Key Vendors Cant Deliver
Greenspan Lowers Fed Rate to 3% And Retires
Soros Wins Big On Bond Bet As Yield Falls To 4%
Fed Chairman Rubin Says Worst Is Over
Dow Now 40% Below 9600 Record Set In 1998
Clinton/Rubin Declare Bank Holiday
Gov. Bush Mocks Gores Bridge To 21st Century
Lawyers Sue Everyone For Y2K Damages
Y2K Lawsuits Bury Courts
Corporate Officers Resign Citing Y2K Liability
Rats Abandoning Y2K Titanic
Congress May Limit Y2K Liability
Lawyers Assert Y2K Damage Lid Unconstitutional
Congress Mulls Drafting Programmers
After IRS Meltdown, Congress Passes US Sales Tax
Social Security System Disabled By Y2K
Ex-Wall St Guru Overcomes Y2K Delusions With Prozac
Misguided Y2K Seer Now Chiropractor In Sedona
It also had this section quoting Ed Yourdon - does everyone still feel this is true?
Mainframe Programming Guru Thinks The Unthinkable.
Ed Yourdon is a legendary mainframe programmer. He has written numerous books on the subject. He is also one of the leading, most thoughtful, and credible alarmists about Y2K. He joined me in a conference call on the subject on October 7, 1997. (We are not related.)
In one of his recent weekly e-mail briefings, Ed pulled no punches:
Nobody seems willing or able to say it in simple language, so let me be the one: the federal government is not going to finish its Y2000 project. No maybes, no ifs, and, or buts. No qualifiers, no wishy-washy statements like unless more money is spent or unless things improve. Were not going to avert the problem by appointing a Y2000 Czar or creating a National Y2000 Commission. Let me say it again, in plain English: The United States federal government will not finish its Y2000 project.
Why is Ed Yourdon so convinced that the mighty US government will fail so miserably? He came to this strong conclusion after reading the December 11 report issued by US Congressman Stephen Horn, who chairs the House Government Management, Information and Technology Subcommittee. I must agree with Yourdon that it leaves little doubt about the grim outcome. However, Ill wait until the OMBs March 15 report to drop some of the wishy-washy hedge clauses from my forecast.
-- curious (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 14, 1999
typo - the report was from 1-5-98
-- curious (email@example.com), March 14, 1999.
Ed Yardeni's market perspectives have been amoung the most brilliant for many years. Those who have sought his guidance have made a bundle.
Follow him carefully and consider all of Ed Yourdon's observations as well. The Eds have earned my great respect.
-- Watchful (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 14, 1999.
When you review the latest March "report card"... keep in mind their modified grading system.
How to Interpret the Latest Year-2000 Report Card
From the U.S. House of Representatives
Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology
Friday, March 12, 1999
"Finishing before the OMB deadline of March 31, 1999 earns a base grade of A. Finishing in the year 2000 or 2001 is a base grade of C. 2002 is a base grade of D. And, anything over 2002 is an F."
"We considered failing every agency with an estimated end date after the deadline, however, the estimated end dates are just that estimates. We hope that agencies will improve their rates of progress and move from an estimated 2001 to successful completion before the deadline. Obviously, those agencies estimated to finish in 2001 have further to go than those estimated to finish in 2000."
"DOE (Department of Energy) is not projected to finish until 2004 and only 44 percent of their mission-critical systems will be compliant by OMB's deadline of March 1999. To make bad worse, they also have poor contingency plans, telecommunications systems, and embedded systems. If there was such a thing as F minus, DOE has earned it."
Link: http://www.freedom.go v/y2k/grades/how.asp
-- Dan (DanTCC@Yahoo.com), March 14, 1999.
Please see my article on the L.A. Times' coverage of Ed Yardeni's Y2K predictions by clicking here A>.
-- Scott Johnson (email@example.com), March 15, 1999.