Is it really possible that the NRC will allow nuclear generating plants to remain in service during the second half of this year?

If I follow the logic on the role of embedded systems - ie., that we need the actual y2k rollover to occur in order to establish their presence and impact, it would seem that all nuclear reactors would simply have to be shut down well before any shut down date such as January 1st, over which there would be no control possible. As I understand it, it will take time for the cores to cool down. And, that other types of fuel, including electrical power, will be necessary for the cooling process to take place.

What I am asking is simple. Are we facing a possible nuclear disaster around those cities where the reactors are built if the reactors are not shut down several months prior to y2k?

Perhaps a less loaded question: how will we know whether or not the reactors are shut down in May or June, or anytime? In chicago I understand over 60% of our electricity is generated by nuclear power. If the reactors are shut down,would there be an occurance of rolling brown outs on hot summer days?

-- Anonymous, March 13, 1999

Answers

Mae--

Thank you so much for posting this question. I hope someone will give you some information. I tried a similiar question, but it wasn't worded near as well as yours. I feel your questions are VERY important and germane to the utilities issues and please know there are many of us out here who are interesting in these same things.

-- Anonymous, March 13, 1999

Mae,

I think the short answer to your question is "yes", it is entirely probable that most plants will remain online through most of the year - even those that the NRC may ultimately deem not ready for Y2K.

Last week, I attended a conference where an NRC representative spoke. He laid out a timeline for NRC actions; the timeline covered the remainder of this year. Here's what it looks like:

• March:
  • NRC to issue an Information Notice summarizing the results of the 12 plant audits that were conducted over the course of the last few months.
  • The final NRC contingency plan will be forwarded to NRC commissioners.
• April:
  • Review of the contingency plans for 6 nuclear plants
  • Decision on 3 NIRS petitions (discussed earlier in this forum)
• June:
  • Complete the review of licensee contingency plans
  • Table top exercise for all nuclear plants (scope was not discussed)
• July:
  • Review of Generic Letter 98-01 responses
• August:
  • Followup reviews and site visits based on GL 98-01 responses
  • Requests for further information based on GL 98-01 responses
  • Management meetings with licensees based on GL 98-01 responses
• September
  • Decision on plant specific actions, including shutdown orders, if appropriate
• October
  • Exercies contingency plans (NRC and plant specific)
• December 31
  • Implement NRC contingency plans

Additionally, the NRC representative indicated that NRC Chairman Jackson is comfortable with progress, however, has directed that the NRC site resident inspector at every nuclear facility shall conduct a review of plant Y2K plans.

So, I think the answer to your question is that there will be no decisions made on shutdowns prior to the end of the summer peaking season this year.

And lastly, there is a lot of erroneous information floating around regarding how long it takes to cool down a nuclear power plant. There's a great thread (look under "nuclear" in the main index to this forum) that discusses this topic in depth. You can look for that thread, and I think that will help you out in terms of understanding some of the physics behind cool down times. I tried to explain it in lay terms; there's some other participants here from the nuclear industry who may wish to go back and review my earlier response and tweak/adjust as necessary. The bottom line: it does not take months and months to cool down a nuclear plant.

However, if the NRC orders shutdowns of any nuclear facilities, I would expect a preliminary decision to be made as early as September. I do not expect that any plant not completely ready for the transition by 12/1/1999 to be operating on 12/2/1999. But I could be wrong - the hard realities of the business of nuclear power (it costs a lot of money to keep a nuclear plant shutdown for even one day) and regulatory requirements in the nuclear industry frequently clash. Regulatory nuances tend to get shuffled out the back door when there's conficts with perceived business needs.

Hope this helps a bit and is not too confusing. Let me know if you need it broken down a bit more.

-- Anonymous, March 13, 1999