As some of you probably know, I have a y2k survival and preparedness site, Y2K Survive, with a sister site, Y2K Rural, that lists various rural getaways for sale. Although my site traffic numbers are higher than ever, inquiries by people looking for safe rural property have decreased dramatically in the last few weeks.

Being curious by nature, I e-mailed a few online y2k companies that sell various survival products, such as food storage, survival videos, etc. to ask them if they had noticed any changes in their volume of orders. They all said they have noticed a decrease in orders recently. Today Gary North mentions a lull in ywk awareness, another indicator that y2k concern has stopped growing.

What does this mean, if anything? Have all those who do Get It finished with their preparation and is everyone else doing nothing? Is this just a temporary lull or is it likely to remain this way until New Year's Evil rolls around? With all the recent media attention, why would concern start to drop? Are people being sung back to sleep by the federal government's Don't Worry, Be Happy lullably?

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), March 12, 1999

Answers

"Are people being sung back to sleep by the federal government's Don't Worry, Be Happy lullably?"

Yep, I think so, and there will BE no panic, IMHO until rollover.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), March 12, 1999.

OK, for the acronym challenged, what does IMHO mean?

-- FM (vidoprof@aol.com), March 12, 1999.

I think you answered your own question, cody - a combination of all those things. However, I'm sure it's only a temporary lull. Remember, April 1 is just around the corner, and there will be a new round of JAE concern. If any problems do show up PUBLICLY in say, New York State, that should ratchet things up to a new level. If they turn out to be BIG problems, (I live in New York and I'll be watching closely) well, it could be a whole new ballgame...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), March 12, 1999.

yes but patrick the spinmeisters are on full alert with trmendous resources at thir disposal - the smart money is on "them"...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), March 12, 1999.

Perhaps people have become tired of the constant "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" rhetoric? Perhaps people have finally woken up to the one indiputable fact: do you think that the massively rich and powerful will let us get to TEOTWAWKI?

-- Vinnie (mail@bomb.com), March 12, 1999.

Andy, in your absence you have missed the ultimate sparring partner, introducing Mr. Vinnie da Bomb!!!!!! (wild applause)

Y'all fight fair, now.

-- Lisa (lisa@friday.thankgod), March 12, 1999.

Remember, spring is here. It is not a natural time to think of storing up for winter. The sun is shinning, the grass is greening up, the spring snow storms are abaiting, the slush is melting. Everything is fine. Don't worry. Those big IT departments have everything undercontrol.......

It is like the market continuing to expand, the pinprick has not hit the bubble yet.....

No news is good news and if you listen to the spinners "There is noooooo problem"

But wait for it, the date can not be changed. It will come no matter what the spinners claim....

-- helium (helium@avid.com), March 12, 1999.

FM, IMHO = In my humble opinion

Cody, remember the sound byte mentality. The ONLY thing everyone remembers from the Senate report is the 3 day hurricane.

-- David (David@BankPacman.com), March 12, 1999.

Most people are so stupid they won't be concerned until the stores run out of toilet paper. Money, food, electricity - they don't care, but if they run out of toilet paper, all hell breaks loose!

-- @ (@@@.@), March 12, 1999.

You're right Vinnie, I am tired of jackasses that try to ridicule something they don't understand and argue with people who do. Do some research.

-- Oboy (oboy@oboy.oboy), March 12, 1999.

Cody, obviously the spin doctors Koskinen and Senator Bennet have succeded in giving the :Sheeple" a false sense of security by recommending only 3 days of food. The masses aparently beleve them.

I learned long ago not to believe anything our government says. It's too bad. Our Government has been created to serve the people, but we the people have become the "Servants" or you might call us "Slaves" when you realize how much income tax we pay!!!!

-- Freddie the Freeloader (freddie@aol.com), March 12, 1999.

Vinnie,

The "massively rich and powerful" cannot change the outcome for medium and large-sized businesses who waited until 1998 to begin their Y2K repairs. They wouldn't have let this situation happen *if* they had known how serious it was in 1996 or maybe 1997.

Unfortunately, a significant minority waited too long. What the "massively rich and powerful" need now is an H.G. Wells-style time machine...

Cody,

I've noticed that Y2K concern fluctuates. There was a period last year, September I believe, when there was a lot of good news about Y2K. Within a few weeks, though, Y2K reporting went back to its typical mix of good and bad news.

There were quite a few news articles about Y2K at the end of 1998 and the beginning of 1999. The number of articles dropped significantly towards the end of February, but picked up again when the Senate report was released.

Just as concern went up at T-minus one year, I expect concern in July to go up when it'll be just six months from January 1, 2000. The Senate report also said that 90% of doctors' offices in the U.S. are unaware of their exposure to Y2K. When businesses like these wake up, watch out.

Another event on the horizon is what will happen when large companies such as GM start dumping non-compliant vendors for compliant ones. That's also supposedly going to happen sometime near July.

I'd like to invite everyone again to listen to the media conference John Koskinen and Edward W. Kelley had with the press the other day on what the press needs to do to avoid panic:

http://webevents.broadcast.com/freedomforum/mar99/freeradio990310.ram

RealPlayer software (downloadable for free) is required.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 12, 1999.

David,

You're right about the sound byte mentality. THE news story one day after the release of the Senate report was the Monica Lewinsky interview (which was heavily watched).

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 12, 1999.

For what it's worth, two days ago on the top of the hour radio news, off the wire service was poll which said Y2K concerns were down from November 1998 from 34% who thought there was cause for concern and preparation to 21% today. I have not researched the wire service on the internet, don't know what poll, or wire service....I would bet that IF concern was diminished it would be in direct proportion to both the "bump in the road" predictions from the feds, and everyone's individual denial/anxiety. Sad and scary! My concerns continue to rise.

Got water?

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), March 12, 1999.

I think that awareness is slowing down due to the government spin. Sometimes I question if they are right simply because they (governemnt) are so good at what they do. I have had several people, one today, say "see it's going to be ok."

I have given up trying to tell others and I noticed on this forum that there are fewer threads on converting our family and friends. We, those that are preparing, are not being lulled but instead becoming accepting of the situation.

As far as seeing panic in the streets, I don't think it will happen until the very last minute, if then. As long as the media is sprewing forth the good word about Y2k, people will listen and believe. It is far easier and more convenient.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), March 12, 1999.

Cody, I personally am less focused on y2k simply because I have done all the preparation I'm going to do until after Thanksgiving.

If it is of any interest to you, the life cycle for me has been as follows. For three years I've been aware of y2k risk through published reports, since I'm not a technical person by profession. I'm not sure when I recognized the embedded systems risk. At any rate, I assumed that the problems would be fixed and documented by the end of 1998, since so much was at stake. In December 1998, I had seen absolutely no evidence that anything was fixed, so preparation for disruption became a true concern. Up to that point I thought about preparation like a twelve year old thinks about retirement -- It'll happen, but I can't really comprehend it happening to me.

I was preoccupied with y2k in January. Despite modest camping skills, I had no knowledge of woodstoves, grain purchase and storage, and other attributes of simple everday existence. I was fully absorbed with the task of prepping.

Now that work is done. I'm still very interested in y2k, but not preoccupied. I expect to spend less time thinking about y2k over the next six months. I've bought just about everything I intend to buy except I might buy some seed from this years grain crop for possible planting by a farmer.

I don't intend to leave this forum, but no merchants are going to hear from me between now and Thanksgiving.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 12, 1999.

Greybear, who does not normally get in the forecasting businnes, is going to go out on a limb here as say:

No, Y2K "concern" has not peaked. It will start to peak in December. By January or February of next year you will see a peak that makes Pikes Peak look like a flattened frog on freeway.

--Greybear, the all seeing

- Got Seeds?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), March 12, 1999.

Perhaps its because when those stupid sheeple start researching Y2K, they soon realize that the ones screaming loudest are also screaming about Waco and Ruby Ridge and Black HELICOPTORS and Klintons buddy being head of FEMA in a part of the U.S. of A and are you a GI or DGI or a DWGI and maybe what if possibly in these circumstances and conditions it's a conspiracy to enact martial law ond OH MY GOD we have to turn in our CREDIT CARDS and KEYS at the post office and then get assigned to a shelter and all these power plant explosions happening are because of Y2K testing and HOLY SHIT THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!!!

-- Mudhead (mud@head.com), March 12, 1999.

"Greybear, who does not normally get in the forecasting businnes, is going to go out on a limb here as say:

No, Y2K "concern" has not peaked. It will start to peak in December. By January or February of next year you will see a peak that makes Pikes Peak look like a flattened frog on freeway.

--Greybear, the all seeing"

Daddy, I love it when you break out the crystal ball.

Donna, the cyber bear in a sheet who thinks we're all in good shape for another 5 months as far as mass panic goes...or more!

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), March 12, 1999.

Is the sky falling? No, but...

http://www.sjmercury.com/svtech/news/breaking/merc/docs/027317.htm

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted at 6:21 p.m. PST Tuesday, March 2, 1999

Y2K may spark unrest, economic pain -US Senate

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The year 2000 computer bug may set off civil unrest in poor countries, undermine economic growth in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and disrupt global trade in oil and other commodities, a Senate panel said Tuesday.

While there was a low probability of an accidental nuclear weapons launch, the committee said missile systems and other high-tech weapons in other countries could malfunction. The Senate was also warned that terrorists might strike against U.S. targets next Jan. 1 to take advantage of weakened security.

``I have a nightmare of CNN cameras in villages or cities where there is no power, no telecommunications, the banking system is broken down, widespread rioting,'' said Utah Republican Sen. Robert Bennett, chairman of the Senate's Special Committee on the computer problem.

[snip]

For the United States, Y2K disruptions should be manageable, the Senate panel concluded.

``The committee has no data to suggest that the United States will experience nationwide social or economic collapse, but the committee believes that some disruptions will occur, and that in some cases Y2K disruptions may be significant.''

Bennett said the U.S. military might experience some minor computer glitches, ``but its mission-critical, war-fighting capability will not be compromised.'' U.S. intelligence services would also be ready in time.

The U.S. health care industry may be the least prepared, according to the panel, which said the nation's Medicare system was in ``serious trouble''.

The committee complained that U.S. airports started preparations too late, and warned that shipments of goods by sea could be disrupted because the maritime industry was running behind. But it said a prolonged nationwide blackout was unlikely, although local and regional outages were possible.

In case vital services were temporarily cut off, the committee said Americans should stock up on bottled water, canned goods and other essentials, as they might to prepare for a winter storm lasting two to three days. People should also keep copies of their financial records in case banks run into unforeseen problems.

The committee said the most serious computer problems were likely to strike other countries next Jan. 1, because many of them started preparing too late or not at all.

The report singled out Japan, Mexico, China, Germany and Taiwan for falling nine months to two years behind schedule in preparing for the year 2000 bug. The committee also said that major oil producers Venezuela and Saudi Arabia were 12 to 18 months behind schedule.

``Disruption of flights and global trade between some areas and countries may occur,'' the committee said.

In a closed-door briefing for senators, Bennett outlined the Y2K threat to national security.

``There is a low to medium probability of terrorist exploitation of Y2K. However, we must remain vigilant in case some of our security systems malfunction,'' Bennett said afterwords.

But he added: ``There is a medium probability of economic disruptions that will lead to civil unrest in certain sectors of the world, particularly where their economies are already fragile or there is political uncertainty.''

He told senators there was a ``high probability'' that widespread computer glitches would compound economic problems in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

``In some countries it will be more serious than others,'' Bennett said. ``The unknowable question is what will be the impact on the United States.''

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 12, 1999.

In his own self-defeating way, Mudhead makes a valid point. I'd love to steer my neighbors toward this forum. But I know them well enough to realize they'd take one look at these threads about government lies, deadly contrails, NRC infiltration, ad nauseum, and roll their eyes. My efforts to get them to prepare a little would be overwhelmened by guilt by association. To them, the idea of buying an extra week's food to have on hand instead of another trip to the hairdresser is wacky enough. Once you throw in the conspiracy theories, there's no hope.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 12, 1999.

You have a point about how this newsgroup sounds, Flint. But it's hypocritical for Mudhead to say what he did. He's the same person who started the 'Guns' and 'Reds' message threads!

-- (weary@need.rest), March 12, 1999.

Flint, your neighbors would roll their eyes at allegations of government lies? You must live on the most gullible street in the country? Random clustering?

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 12, 1999.

Puddintame --- Random clustering, nope, not gonna touch that one.

The problem is, Y2K is terminally boring to most folks because, you see, nothing ever ... really .... happens (thanks to my 18-year old GI son for that one). Sure, everyone "knows" nothing much will happen until "then", but without any, um, planes falling from the sky, we just ... feel ... so ... very ... sleepy.

One of the purposes which this forum serves is to enable those of us who want to remain awake to stay vigilant in the face of the hypnotists. What's puzzling though is why this is so infuriating to Mudhead, Vinnie, Mutha and others. Why do they care? Mudhead implies that folks would GI but somehow they find their way to this tiny corner of the world and are turned off. ROTFLMAO. Would that it were so!

Now for something entirely different. I predict that the K-boys themselves (with some help from Bennett-Dodd) will re-ratchet up the, uh, awareness sometime around the end of April or, latest, end of May. Don't assume they're entirely happy with having spun the Senate report into oblivion. I doubt they expected to be quite so successful!

Don't assume they're not also scared to death about Y2K impact next year.

They want to build a controlled anxiety/alert in the populace and, yes, a certain measure of preparation. Lulling the sheeple entirely to sleep is as bad in their minds as full preparation. To that extent, I take their public statements to that effect at face value. As for my opinion of their integrity, why bother to repeat it.....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), March 12, 1999.

Puddintame:

I see that I didn't express myself very clearly.

No, my neighbors are aware that the government is less than forthright, prone to deny the obvious occasionally, not averse to greasing their palms when they can, and fond of classifying their mistakes in the interest of 'national security.'

But it's one thing to observe that this happens (and cluck about it), and quite another to start a thread like "looking for government lies." This latter implies an orientation, an active mode, a strong agenda. As my neighbors would say, if you go looking for trouble, you'll find it even if it wasn't there before you got there.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 12, 1999.

Mudhead hit it right on the nail. That is the atmosphere this forum is giving off right now, and it's becoming harder and harder to get to the real nuggets.

I'd be lumped in with the conspiracy wackos if I referred this forum to anyone I know.

-- Lurker#9999 (Lurking@home.com), March 12, 1999.

It's the lull before the storm. Believe me, people are preparing quietly and effectively. It's almost like a silent hastening, people are preparing quietly, not making any noise because WTSHTF no one wants anyone knocking on their door. Call me paranoid, call me a kook, but don't call on me when your in a fluke!

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), March 12, 1999.

I've seen lots of talk here about community. Church groups. Mutual defense. Pooling resources for rebuilding. Yup, community is good.

But when it comes to your personal stash, keep your guns oiled and your stash secret. Community be damned.

I quit going to church when I realized that they spent big money doing their hair up Saturday, so they could show it off in church Sunday, before they evicted the poor on Monday. Wasn't my religion.

If anyone here finds themselves in need, let me know. We stand ready to help. May not be much, but it's best when shared.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 12, 1999.

The worst hardened people I know are those who profess to believe on the Lord Jesus Christ. They are quick to judge you, quick to condemn you, and will thump on their Bible showing you that they have the authority to do it. I don't fear the "unchurched," I fear the self-righteous pew warmers.

-- beenthereonce (beenthereonce@beenthere.com), March 12, 1999.

Flint:: Y'all need to be careful. Your last few posts have been, ah, shall we say, not optimistic? If you aren't REAL careful, we'll have to declare you a brother in good standing, and tell you the handshakes and secret passwords ;-} (short for G, D, and R) < which is short for grinnin', duckin' and runnin' >

Chuck, (who figgers if i can't have a bit o' fun then it's a job and THEN where are we?)

-- Chuck, a night driver (reinzoo@en.com), March 12, 1999.

Weary - tsk tsk... there you go jumping to conclusions again - No 'twas not I that started the "Guns" and "Reds" threads.

Why did you say that with utter clarity? Was it because of the tone of those threads? (stinging sheer blatant fullblown cynicsm) and then you were so SMART that you divined the fact that since the threads had the same tone then they MUST have been written by the same person?

tsk tsk....

I thought this forum was to elicit clear and critical thinking but then again maybe I am JUST a TROLL.

Troll ALERT - BEWARE this person doesn't toe the Y2K line BEWARE

Could it be possible that there are others who INFILTRATING this forum that have such cynicsym as I?

what if under those circumstances and possibly maybe so but undoubtedly uncertain?

-- Mudhead (mud@head.com), March 13, 1999.

Cody,

Think it all flows as "stairstep awareness." You'll see more orders soon.

Remember, Shift Happens and expcet the unexpected. (Like maybe a scoffing troll might GI too?)

Diane

(Mudhead, Get Community, or Get "Filtered" Locally, Not Infiltrated)

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), March 13, 1999.

bardou:

You mentioned "the lull before the storm". That's a good observation. Almost everyone around me is sick and tired of this "Y2K stuff". They haven't witnessed any problems, the economy is humming along, they have vacation plans coming up, and they don't want to be bothered.

The lull before the storm... the economic crash... the deluge of panic. Look over the horizon. Do you see it approaching?

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), March 14, 1999.

temporary lull only. i figure concern will zigzag all year.

-- jocelyne slough (jonslough@tln.net), March 15, 1999.