Saudi Oilgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Cross posted from another list. Anyone care to take on the technical aspects of this guys view? Begin cross post...
Hi, Everyone -
You may remember that I mentioned that my brother is a Safety Engineer with ARAMCO in Saudi Arabia. I just asked him for an update and below is what he sent. A couple of key points: The TN Technology Alloy Analyzers he mentions are not mission critical to the flow of oil but certainly are in second place. Also, most of the computer upgrade work is being done by the US manufacturers of the computer equipment they and others around the world use. So, their software problem is limited to what programs were developed locally.
I have replied to my brother asking about embedded chips and will pass along.
Have a great Alabama Day, Rick
We are in a major Y2K program. I don't think we're 18 months behind schedule though definitely not on time. For example, I have two TN Technology Alloy Analyzers that have Cd-109 and Ir-55 isotopes that are used for x-ray defraction in the identification of materials. The processing of data includes calculating the activity of the isotopes based on the initial measurement date. OOPS! two digits. These are going back to the states, but with all the red tape of handling radioactive materials internationally as well as domestically, probably won't be completed before year end. Hence Y2K problem.
This is a minor problem as there are many others not only here but elsewhere in the world similar to it. As for major systems - the problem is more international. There are software systems developed here, but they are based on systems purchased outside. For example Honeywell and Foxboro have major DCS (Distributive Control System) installed. Upgrading for Y2K is not done here but at the factory in the US. Therefore, if the US is behind schedule then so are the customers around the world. That in itself is an interesting topic. One small problem in a product that is exported world wide. Let everyone enjoy the fun.
Nine months from now, oil will flow. Maybe there will be some headaches, but there will be flow. Systems are heavily automated, but there is always manual redundancy.
-- Rusty (iam@work.com), March 12, 1999
Would be useful to know where this came from.The Safety Engineer with ARAMCO in Saudi Arabia might have been able to provide some information about salination plants over there.
Hello! Is there anyone out there from this region that can tell us a bit more about what is going on over there?
Reports from this end don't look good. Can anyone up close and personal provide us with a bit more of a clearer picture?
-- Hmmmm (veryinterested@learningmore.com), March 12, 1999.
This post came from the Alabamay2k listserv and evidently the persons brother is going to provide more info. I will pass this along for the group here. The list is mainly for folks in Bama, but of course anyone can join. I just found the list yesterday so I really haven't had time to get a good read on the info to noise ratio. If anyone wishes to join the list send a blank email to subscribe-alabamay2k@onelist.comRusty
-- Rusty (iam@work.com), March 12, 1999.
oops make that alabamay2k-subscribe@onelist.comSorry Rusty2k
-- Rusty (iam@work.com), March 12, 1999.
Oil is just one of the question marks about the Middle East. Another is water. This news item adresses both issues:http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=a1468LBY212reulb- 19990226&qt=y2k&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486 INTERVIEW-Arab states not ready for Y2K bug--U.N.
09:54 a.m. Feb 26, 1999 Eastern
By Miral Fahmy
BEIRUT, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Most of the Middle East's Arab states are ill-prepared for the millennium bug, which could hit the region's oil industry and cut off fresh water supplies, a U.N. official said on Friday.
Mohammed Mrayati, science and technology adviser for the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), told Reuters in an interview few countries in the region had thought about the problem, let along drawn up plans to avoid it.
``The Middle East is particularly at risk because normally, our governments do not come up with contingency plans,'' he said after chairing a two-day ESCWA conference on the millennium bug.
``If things break down, then the action taken is usually spur-of-the moment, unorganised and takes time. But if this happens in certain fields, the results could be catastrophic.''
The Beirut-based ESCWA covers 13 countries from Egypt to the Gulf, excluding Israel.
[snip]
U.N. officials said airports, Egypt's Suez Canal and electricity networks could be hit and the highly-computerised oil refining and water desalination plants of the arid, oil-rich Gulf states were particularly at risk.
``If they should stop, then millions of people would have no power and no water to drink. This is the biggest challenge facing our region,'' he said.
With January 1, 2000 less than 10 months away, countries were just starting to set up committees to discuss the problem. Mrayati attributed the delay to ignorance on the part of governments and said that, with some effort, it could be solved by the deadline.
``I am not very pessimistic that the problem can be handled because the systems in the Arab world are not as huge as they are in Europe or the United States.
``All we need is stimulation and more government involvement because without the interference of the prime minister's office, not much gets done.''
A statement issued after the two-day meeting urged ESCWA members to draft and test contingency plans. U.N. officials said countries with high millennium awareness, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, should share their experiences.
``It is not obvious where the problem will impact or when or what the resulting system's behaviour will be. It involves many interdependent systems where faults in one may have a domino effect upon others. It therefore needs national, regional and international efforts to resolve it,'' it said.
Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited.
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 12, 1999.
What about getting that oil from the Middle East to the United States? I recommend this article as well...http://www.joc.com/issues/990308/p1age1/e20324.htm
Experts warn of Y2K trade upheaval
Each nation's problem will become a global one
BY WILLIAM ROBERTS
JOURNAL OF COMMERCE STAFF
WASHINGTON -- Experts on the millennium computer bug warned Congress last week that international commerce and trade may face serious disruptions early next year because of computer failures in foreign countries.
Painting an alarming but uncertain picture, a National Intelligence Council officer and a State Department watchdog told a special Senate oversight panel on Friday that many foreign nations are not prepared.
"It is becoming increasingly clear that there will be Y2K-related problems in virtually very corner of the globe," Jacquelyn L. Williams-Bridgers, inspector general of the Department of State, told a hearing of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem.
"Faced with a relentless and unforgiving deadline, countries have to make difficult decisions concerning the use of scarce resources to fix a problem that has not yet occurred," she said.
[snip]
The international transportation sector is particularly vulnerable, she and Lawrence K. Gershwin, National Intelligence Council officer for science and technology, said. "Global linkages in telecommunications, financial systems, the manufacturing supply chain, oil supplies, trade and worldwide shipping and air transportation will virtually guarantee that Y2K problems will not be isolated to individual countries," Mr. Gershwin said.
Among the difficulties the two officials outlined:
Both the Panama and Suez canals face the risk of disrupted operations should traffic management systems or ship steering mechanisms fail. Panama officials say no ships will be allowed into the canal on Dec. 31. A Norwegian firm is working now on fixing the Suez Canal's traffic system.
China probably will experience failures in several areas, including transportation and power generation. An estimated 90% of software used in China, even by government offices and state-owned enterprises, is pirated, making it very difficult to approach vendors for fixes. China is planning to conduct a nationwide aviation test. Senior officials have been ordered to fly on New Year's Day.
Central and Eastern Europe are believed to face vulnerabilities in Soviet-designed nuclear power plants, though Western experts do not know what specific problems they may have. Many vendors of the software and equipment stopped operating after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Russia Gazprom natural gas pipeline network is susceptible to potential Y2K outages. It supplies nearly 50% of the total energy consumed by Russia. While Gazprom has backup plans, it is unclear whether these measures are sufficient to deal with the scale of problems that could occur.
Major oil-producing nations are behind in fixing their Y2K problems. Oil production and distribution is largely in the hands of multinational corporations, but the sector's use of information technology is highly intensive.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 12, 1999.
Rusty,The last paragraph from the Journal of Commerce article tends to support the point you made...
[snip]
Major oil-producing nations are behind in fixing their Y2K problems. Oil production and distribution is largely in the hands of multinational corporations, but the sector's use of information technology is highly intensive.
[snip]
Major oil-producing nations are behind in fixing their Y2K problems. Oil production and distribution is largely in the hands of multinational corporations, but the sector's use of information technology is highly intensive.
[snip]
...but the Y2K problem runs deep throughout the world's transportation and distribution system. That's what makes solving it so difficult.
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 12, 1999.
And yet another issue with Saudi Arabia is the possibility of civil war. The Jan/Feb issue of Foreign Affairs magazine included an essay about how the US should respond in the case of civil war in other countries. They outlined the situation in Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. I don't have the magazine handy, and I don't think they publish the articles on-line (www.foreignaffairs.org). The point is that the country is politically on the edge now, the King is old, there are all these "princes" in charge of various factions of the military and business community who are poised for a power struggle, and there are extremists who are still pissed that "infidels" were allowed into the country during the Gulf War. Throw in the possibility of Y2K related disruptions and you have trouble a'brewin'. A disruption in the flow of Saudi oil could lead to major problems by itself, even without other types of disruptions.
-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), March 12, 1999.
What about Saudi infrastracture? Electricity, water, health care, food?The Saudis *hate* Americans with a passion unequaled. (I have lived there for 10 years. "Great Satan" comes to mind.) Take away all the convienences and consumer goods the Americans have provided the Saudis in return for oil and see how long the good relations last. The Saudis will do *nothing* for the Americans on faith or out of good will.
I'm guessing that religious fundementalism will take a huge upward swing after Y2K. If anything goes wrong it will be blamed on the "Great Satan". If they can't get food in to feed their people, can't get clean water, can't get health care it will all be blamed on the US. I'm guessing we will also see a rise of terrorism.
The US has made serious enemies and when Y2K hits they will no longer be appeased by the ease and luxury the US has provided them. We are not dealing with just ARAMCO's computor systems, here, we're also dealing with human emotion. And the middle east is tumultous at best. Throw in the pain of Y2K and it will boil over. (My father was a programmer for Aramco for 12 years. From what he's told me, the programming department is rife with people who do * absolutely* nothing (a good portion Saudis that are guaranteed a job by the government.) and lots of infighting. A situation that hasn't changed according to his former co-workers. Also the imperitive to fix the systems will be seriously lacking. Most Aramcons hate ARAMCO with a passion. The "I only work for my paycheck" attitude abounds. (Comes of repressing christian religious expression, personal expression, etc.))
I highly doubt the situation is that good.
-- Alison Tieman (fearzone@home.com), March 12, 1999.
Alison is right on the money with her assessment - I worked out there for three years in jeddah, trained up several IT staff, and worked with many IT pros of all nationalities.Personally, the guys I trained up were pretty good - conscientious to a degree - however that degree was passed when they would, for example, begin praying during critical system outages, effectively abandoning their posts :) Hey, it's their country and I'm the infidel... another good one was a communal breakfast in the middle of the computer roon, finger' lickin' good food eaten cross legged on the floor with a few sticky commands entered on the prime console every now and then. Oh boy, that keyboard was a sight to behold...
As for the programming - my experience was that there was a VERY small percentage of whiz kids who were VERY good, but the vast majority were mediocre, and a few downright dangerous - all had guaranteed jobs and salaries, just make an appearance and you get paid...
The IT sites I know of are run by expats, without expats the country grinds to a halt. So does the oil, shipping, refineries, airports, electricity, hospitals.
The Saudis *hate* Americans with a passion unequaled. (I have lived there for 10 years. "Great Satan" comes to mind.) Take away all the convienences and consumer goods the Americans have provided the Saudis in return for oil and see how long the good relations last. The Saudis will do *nothing* for the Americans on faith or out of good will.
I'm guessing that religious fundementalism will take a huge upward swing after Y2K. If anything goes wrong it will be blamed on the "Great Satan". If they can't get food in to feed their people, can't get clean water, can't get health care it will all be blamed on the US. I'm guessing we will also see a rise of terrorism.
The US has made serious enemies and when Y2K hits they will no longer be appeased by the ease and luxury the US has provided them. We are not dealing with just ARAMCO's computor systems, here, we're also dealing with human emotion. And the middle east is tumultous at best. Throw in the pain of Y2K and it will boil over. (My father was a programmer for Aramco for 12 years. From what he's told me, the programming department is rife with people who do * absolutely* nothing (a good portion Saudis that are guaranteed a job by the government.) and lots of infighting. A situation that hasn't changed according to his former co-workers. Also the imperitive to fix the systems will be seriously lacking. Most Aramcons hate ARAMCO with a passion. The "I only work for my paycheck" attitude abounds. (Comes of repressing christian religious expression, personal expression, etc.))
I highly doubt the situation is that good.
NO
No
No
It's far worse than that, Alison, it will be a shambles at rollover.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), March 12, 1999.
Alison makes the point that Saudi opinions of U.S. will change drastically when the goodies stop flowing west to east as counterpoint to the oil flowing east to west. I'm reminded that the Shah of Iran began having trouble with Iranian fundamentalists when he stopped paying off the mullahs and stopped sending checks to the ayatollah to keep him in France. History -- it just goes round and round.
-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), March 12, 1999.
Rusty,Also, the State Department has issued a warning for overseas travelers. You may want to advise your brother of this.
http://www.techserver.com/noframes/story/0,2294,12633-21362-156624- 0,00.html
[begin article]
U.S. warns of millennium bug problems for overseas travelers
Copyright ) 1999 Nando Media
Copyright ) 1999 Agence France-Press
WASHINGTON (January 29, 1999 2:18 p.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com) - The United States on Friday warned its citizens planning to travel abroad over the coming New Year holiday that the Y2K computer glitch could cause them significant problems.
In a worldwide notice to U.S. citizens, the State Department said that while many countries, businesses and utilities were addressing potential Y2K problems, others were not.
Those "with more limited resources or expertise, or who are not paying appropriate attention to the problem, may experience significant difficulties," the notice said.
Of particular concern are the transportation, financial, utility and telecommunication sectors, it said, adding that U.S. citizens abroad might wish to "consult their insurance companies to ascertain if policies cover Y2K-related problems."
"All U.S. citizens planning to be abroad in late 1999 or early 2000 should be aware of the potential for problems and stay informed about Y2K preparedness in the location where they will be traveling," it said.
No country was singled out for weak Y2K preparation, but the department said its consular information sheets for individual countries would soon include specific information on each nation's preparedness for the potential problem.
Forecasters have predicted a wave of woes when 2000 kicks in and some older computers, which might interpret it as January 1, 1900, fail to carry out a variety of orders and cause disruptions.
[snip]
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 12, 1999.
As long as the thread topic is "Saudi Oil", I'll make a few comments:Noticed that no one addressed the positive "spin" from the Aramco Safety engineer, nor his prediction that "Nine months from now, oil will flow. Maybe there will be some headaches, but there will be flow. Systems are heavily automated, but there is always manual redundancy." I've been saying the same thing for some time now.
Andy: Alison is NOT on the money in her post - partly true, but certainly not spot on, old chap.
Most Aramcons hate ARAMCO with a passion. The "I only work for my paycheck" attitude abounds. (Comes of repressing christian religious expression, personal expression, etc.))
I've met a number of people like that: spoiled, overpaid, and world-class whiners (or whingers, for you Brits). My one-word answer: LEAVE! There's many flights leaving Saudi Arabia, every day. Don't like the conditions, then go home. Scram. Vamoose. And especially coming from Aramcons, who are the most spoiled, pampered, over-benefited "expats" in the Kingdom, hooooo-eeee, does that makes my pressure rise.
Sure, living conditions in Saudi Arabia are tough: no booze, no pork, no bars, no movie theaters, no churches (or any form of worship other than Sunni Islam), lots of press censorship, lousy bookstores, no single dating allowed, loudest mosques in the world at 4:30 a.m. right during delicious r.e.m. sleep time, bum weather, no concept of "queuing", world's worst (and most dangerous) drivers, no driving or working at all for ladies, and stores closing 4 times a day for salah (prayer call) The list of aggravations *could* go on and on, but in the end it's what you make of it. Try some benefits: great parties, best scuba diving in the world (Red Sea), sid, desert camping and off-roading, cheap domestic help, good friends, Arab hospitality, excellent carpet and antique souks, and of course above all, very healthy tax-free paychecks.
Partly true, Alison - Saudis don't much like to work, if the job is guaranteed by the government - so then again, as long as employment is guaranteed by the government, care to discuss work ethics of your local DMV or any other federal department? Oil rich Gulf states have a well-entrenched social welfare system, cradle to grave - how conducive is that to a strong work ethic?
Personally, the guys I trained up were pretty good - conscientious to a degree - however that degree was passed when they would, for example, begin praying during critical system outages, effectively abandoning their posts :) Yes, an endearing trait - especially when done by the people stamping visas at the airport - you've been traveling non-stop for 25 hours, you're tired, grungy, standing in an interminable queue, and the nice man with the visa stamp f***s off for a half hour or so for prayer call. Lovely. :-)
On water desalination plants, you may want to read this thread on which I posted some time ago. The idea in the above article, that ``If they should stop, then millions of people would have no power and no water to drink. This is the biggest challenge facing our region,'' he said., is one of the most ludicrous and ill-informed statements I've seen in print.
Alison: I take issue with one of your statements:
The Saudis *hate* Americans with a passion unequaled. (I have lived there for 10 years. "Great Satan" comes to mind.) Take away all the conveniences and consumer goods the Americans have provided the Saudis in return for oil and see how long the good relations last. The Saudis will do *nothing* for the Americans on faith or out of good will.
That's a pretty broad statement there, I suspect better applied to Shiite residents of the Beka'a valley than Saudis. Yes, there are plenty of Saudi fundamentalists who don't like Westerners, much less Americans. And the bombings at the Sang Compound in Riyadh and Khobar Towers were no joke. Americans aren't popular in the Middle East.. the US's one-sided support of Israel continues to guarantee that this will be so. But I know plenty of Saudis and other Arabs who like Americans just fine, send their kids to be educated at US universities, and visit there every chance they get. Dangerous thing to make generalized statements, generally speaking.
"Conveniences and consumer goods" are provided in exchange for money, as in commerce. You know, the Saudis sell oil, their customers pay cash, with the cash the Saudis buy consumer goods. And if we're not willing to sell to them (as in F-15's), they're quite happy to buy from somewhere else (as in British Aerospace and Tornadoes).
"Saudis will do nothing for Americans on faith or out of good will" - I guess you've never been stranded in the desert and been helped by Bedouins. Or maybe you've never heard of the years of efforts on the part of the Saudis to interest our Department of Commerce to help them draft SASO regulations (Saudi Arabian Standards Organization) - which would have guaranteed that most goods imported in Saudi Arabia would have had to meet US standards, with huge benefits to US industry. No dice, DeptComm never cooperated or was much interested, with the result that SASO today is a hodgepodge of European, Japanese and to a (much) lesser degree, US specifications.
Civil war and instability in Saudi Arabia? Always a possibility, always a possibility.. Then again, it's been predicted for as long as I can remember, and they're still there.
-- Morgan (morgan96@netscape.net), March 15, 1999.
Morgan,Here's another article you should read. Your comments are welcomed.
http://www.newsbytes.com/pubNews/127445.html
[for educational use only]
Y2K May Stop Oil, Start Terrorism - Senate Hearing
05 Mar 1999, 10:45 AM CST
By Robert MacMillan, Newsbytes.
WASHINGTON, DC, U.S.A.
In the spirit of Warren Zevon, send oil, guns and money -- Y2K is about to hit the international fan.
Year 2000 problems could result in travel and terrorism warnings for Americans abroad, and also may cripple the US' oil import infrastructure, officials from the State and Commerce Departments told the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem today.
The State Department is planning to issue an "initial Y2K travel announcement" that would presage travel warnings urging Americans not to go to places that might put them in danger because of Year 2000- related problems.
"We're looking at a world situation where we face unknown and unintended consequences," US Undersecretary of State Bonnie Cohen told the committee this morning. "We focus on power, telecommunications and water systems...the kinds of things you need to keep the infrastructure of a company running."
Committee Chairman Robert Bennett, R-Utah, asked a senior Commerce Department official whether there were any areas in the world that might be particularly susceptible to terrorist attack by criminals wanting to take advantage of problems the glitch might cause -- and whether that kind of terrorism risk exists.
"I am concerned that (for) people who don't have our best interests at heart...Y2K may be an opportunity to do this," said Michael J. Copps, assistant secretary for trade development in the Commerce Department's International Trade Administration. He did not name any locations that might be more susceptible.
Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, a member of the Year 2000 committee, said he was especially concerned about a lack of readiness in eastern Russia and Siberia, and the potential pollution and economic problems that could be caused by that region's military buildup and oil pipelines.
"As an Alaskan, I'm quite worried about eastern Russia," Stevens said. "I'm worried as chair of the Appropriations Committee -- we have not really estimated the cost. We haven't seen an analysis of what needs are going to be through next year."
Stevens added that in Russia, where the government cannot even pay its armed forces, "they don't have the money to pay for Y2K." He said that oil pipeline leaks and ruptures could result, as well as military breakdowns.
According to Committee Ranking Democrat Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., the US depends on much of its oil supply on countries that mostly are far behind on their Year 2000 compliance efforts. The top five oil exporters to the US are Venezuela (16.2 percent), Canada (15.5 percent), Saudi Arabia (14.4 percent), Mexico (12.9 percent) and Nigeria (7.3 percent). Except for Canada, these countries are between six months to 24 months behind on their compliance efforts, Dodd said.
Dodd also said that the pharmaceutical industry could suffer from other countries' Year 2000 problems. He said that 70 percent of the US insulin supply and 80 percent of the raw materials used in manufacturing pharmaceuticals are imported.
On a brighter front, Bennett and Dodd said that the Defense Department has established formal ties with Moscow on preparing that country's aging conventional and nuclear arsenal for the date change.
Making a reference to Year 2000 litigation, which is the topic of two Senate bills and one House bill, Bennett derided a statement made by Senate Commerce Committee Ranking Democrat Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, D- S.C., who said that attempts to shield large companies from Year 2000- related litigation would allow those companies to "to sell upgrades...and expensive consulting services."
"Critics claim that the American companies sold their software and equipment abroad with the full knowledge that these products contained the Y2K problem," Bennett said. "The US has been accused of creating the Y2K problem so foreign buyers would be forced to upgrade systems more quickly, or purchase expensive consulting services from the US. One French banker went so far as to say that the Y2K problem was invented to distract attention from the euro conversion."
Reported by Newsbytes News Network, http://www.newsbytes.com
[snip]
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 15, 1999.
Kevin:Here's a warden faxnet message from back in January:
US Consulate General - Dubai - UAE Warden Message: Jan 28, 1999
Within the last week, an explosive device was discovered in a large, popular supermarket frequented by the American and European communities in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The police successfully disarmed the device and an investigation is under way. While the Department of State knows of no specific threat against American citizens or Interests, American citizens in the UAE are strongly urged to maintain vigilance and high security awareness. The Department of State strongly urges Americans residing in or traveling to the UAE to review their security practices and to take appropriate measures to protect their personal security. In addition, American citizens should maintain a low profile, vary routes and times for all travel, and treat mail from unfamiliar sources with suspicion.
The full post can be found here at the BFI forum.
Traveler's advisories from the State Department are nothing new. When I lived in Saudi Arabia, they came out about once a month. I'll be staying put where I am. And like I said in the post, I've since then switched supermarkets.
-- Morgan (morgan96@netscape.net), March 15, 1999.
Morgan,You sound rather optimistic. Are you making any personal contingency plans for 2000?
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 15, 1999.
Kevin:That's me, the optimist. As for personal plans, just more than normal, but certainly nothing drastic. A little more than a fistful of dollars (gotta buy on dem dips!). More groceries than normal ---- which is not saying a lot, we've always been big fans of buying in bulk (having lived in the Bay Area for years and through the '89 quake convinced me of earthquake preparedness). Hard copies of all records, always had 'em. Gold? "Honey" has decreed that the only gold allowed in the house has to have "wearability" ---- not much chance of wearing Gold Eagles, unless you're a rapper. As for long-term investments, that's just what they are, long-term. No immediate changes. No traveling anywhere at rollover, but we wouldn't be traveling around that time anyway. Hate the crowds.
But water wells, relocation, buried provisions, conspiracies, beans and wheat, methane-powered radios? Nah. Not for us. I mostly lurk here from time to time, and only post when I see some subjects where I can add or clarify something. Which reminds me, one of these days I'll get around to starting an Italy thread, to counteract the 3 or 4 silly ones I've seen so far. You know, "Italy is Toast!", that kind of thing.
Cheers,
-- Morgan (morgan96@netscape.net), March 15, 1999.
I know you mean't to say "garlic toast." Thanks for the skulling message...been busy. gomen nasai.
-- PNG (png@gol.com), March 15, 1999.
Morgan,I think it's interesting how you and I both have personal contingency plans for 2000, and yet we seem to be coming from different sides of the same issue. Let me tell you why I think our perspective is different.
I have no problems with anyone making personal preparedness plans for 2000. I can understand someone preparing for that three-day "snow storm" the U.S. government keeps making an analogy to, or three weeks of either natural gas, water or electricity disruptions--or even someone preparing for six months of transportation and supply chain interruptions.
I think it's more dangerous for an individual to under-prepare for Y2K rather than over-prepare for Y2K. If a person has over-prepared for what Y2K turns out to be, they'll be going to the grocery a lot less next year, and they'll have extra tools and things like extra quarts of oil that are helpful to have around anyway.
What I draw the line at in Y2K discussions are comments from people that tend to discourage any kind of personal contingency planning. You're planning for Y2K yourself, but what you say could lead to quite a few people not prepping for Y2K at all.
Why do I think that I, personally, need to prepare for three weeks to six months of disruptions? Simple: not because I think it's quite certain, but because I think the odds of three or more weeks of disruptions happening next year are more than the odds of me having to use medical insurance insurance in the next 12 months.
You wouldn't try to talk someone out of having medical insurance, would you?
-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 15, 1999.
PNG: shoulda said "bruschetta". Non c'e' di che. Kevin: not ignoring you, but gotta run. Respond later.
-- Morgan (morgan96@netscape.net), March 15, 1999.
http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,SAV- 9903070315,00.htmlFEARING Y2K PROBLEMS OVERSEAS, U.S. MAY ISSUE TRAVEL WARNINGS
Reuters
March 07, 1999
WASHINGTON The State Department has told lawmakers it might issue travel warnings and draw up evacuation plans for Americans living abroad should the year 2000 computer bug cause widespread problems.
State Department officials told the Senate's special committee on the so-called millennium bug Friday that contingency plans may be needed to safeguard Americans abroad because many other countries were nowhere near ready for the change to the year 2000, and computer glitches could cause trouble for computers running power, transportation and telephone systems.
An official with the Central Intelligence Agency also warned the committee some Soviet-designed nuclear power plants were vulnerable to computer crashes and the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom could experience Y2K outages that could cut off supplies to former Soviet republics.
[snip}
In its report on the computer problem, the Senate committee said Y2K computer glitches could set off civil unrest in poor countries and undermine economic growth in Asia, Latin America and Africa.
The Y2K responses of many governments around the world were "inadequate, belated, and uneven," said Bonnie Cohen, the State Department's undersecretary for management.
Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, inspector general at the State Department, said that telephone systems in Russia could fail, and that Ukraine's power grid was particularly fragile.
She said ship traffic through the Panama and Suez Canals could be disrupted, but said the State Department and other U.S. agencies were still evaluating these and other risks.
"Based on these analyses the (State) Department will determine whether it needs to issue travel warnings concerning particular countries or develop draw-down or evacuation plans for areas where the Y2K problem may pose a risk to Americans living abroad," Williams- Bridgers said.
CIA national intelligence officer Lawrence Gershwin told the committee Soviet-designed nuclear power plants in Russia and Central and Eastern Europe were vulnerable.
"We believe that Western Europe can survive a Gazprom shutdown for over 30 days," he said. "Of greater concern are Eastern Europe, Russia itself and the other states of the former Soviet Union should Russia's ability to transport and export natural gas be interrupted in midwinter."
China may also experience major disruptions, made worse because many government computer systems rely on pirated software, Gershwin told the committee.
"China's late start in addressing Y2K issues suggests Beijing will solve some, but not many, of its Y2K problems in the limited time remaining, and will probably experience failures in key sectors," he said.
Gershwin said missile systems in Russia and China could also experience Y2K problems, but he saw no danger nuclear weapons would go off because of computer crashes.
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-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 15, 1999.
Kevin:To answer your last question, yes I would, and it would depend where the person lived and the limit of their means. If they lived in the UK or Italy or other places in Europe (or the UAE), then private health insurance is not required, is it? Same with car insurance, don't really need it if you don't drive. And tornado insurance, earthquake, etc..
Having said that, I'm not really against anyone taking some common sense steps to get their lives in order and be better prepared for "eventualities" ("may you live in interesting times", indeed..) You've seen how I keep a "bug-out" bag - but it's a fairly inexpensive precaution. And I'll gladly refer anyone to the Red Cross site. What I generally don't appreciate is hucksters spreading FUD to drum up sales of their overpriced goods, in a nutshell. OK, some or most of your "prep" items you will be able to use anyway, but unnecessary and paranoid preparations are a little beyond me. "
Cheers,
-- Morgan (morgan96@netscape.net), March 16, 1999.