I have been reading a lot the past fews days about issues with preparedness of nuclear plants. The NRC has stated that any plant not demonstrating compliance by October,(I think), will be shut down.

The Electric industry has stated that they intend to have extra generating capabilities available on 1/1. IE. Old retired plants brought back into service for a while, etc.

For the sake of my question lets assume that most fossil and hydro plants are operational on 1/1.

My question is as follows: If a major portion of the nuclear plants have to be shut down for non-compliance, how much back up generating power needs to be available to keep things alive? I know that this is normally a low demand time, but how much can the industry compensate for?

Dave

-- Anonymous, March 10, 1999

Answers

As with most things Y2k in the electric business, replacement power availability would be a very regional thing. A quick example:

New Jersey depends on nuclear energy for nearly 60% of the power in the state. As you note, January 1 falls at a time of relatively low power demand in NJ, because most of us in NJ heat with either oil or gas. Electricity is just to damn expensive here to use as a primary heat source.

With a little bit of advance planning, the local electric companies can make up for the total unavailability of nuclear power at this time of the year. So, in the case of Y2k, it becomes very important for the NRC to make its intentions known now, so contingency planning for reserve generation can take place well in advance of the need.

This isn't true in other regions. It's my understanding that if the Palo Verde nuclear plants in Arizona were to be required to totally shut down, the Western U.S. would be in rough shape even though that region is overall less dependent on nuclear power. This is because there isn't as much make up generation capacity available from sources other than nuclear.

-- Anonymous, March 11, 1999