Y2K will cause "lockdown" of technology sales, market crash

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

It's all clear to me now. Over the next several months, as we get closer and closer to that fateful date, sales of technology products will slow to a virtual standstill. Would you buy a new cellular phone, VCR, or computer later this year, or wait until January just to be sure it works? For most of us, the answer is clear. After all, no one seems to be offering any guarantees that these things will definitely work.

So later this year, the IBMs, Ciscos, Dells, Motorolas, and every other technology company will be seeing red. That is a LOT of lost business. Massive layoffs will follow. The driving force behind our existing stock market will disappear from the face of the earth, and the bubble will burst.

Something else more devastating may occur first, but this one is a guaranteed reality.


-- @ (@@@.@), March 06, 1999


@, as you know, there's a lot of high-tech here in the Research Triangle of NC. I've had first hand reports from a large software company that no one is buying big packages until they see how January and February develop. Of course, I'm assume there are other software companies that are prospering by selling compliant replacement packages now also, but I have not heard those reports.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 06, 1999.

Money not spent on computers or software is usually spent in some other way, so it remains circulating around some part of the economy. Of course, if all major corporations decided to turn it into cash and stick it under their mattresses, this might cause an economic bump. But not that much of one.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 06, 1999.

How is everyone going to keep spending money when half the population is laid off? If you own stocks, you better transfer your money from Dell and AMD to Starkist Tuna and Coleman! Lookout for those third quarter reports (maybe even the second quarter). The NASDAQ will be nonexistant by year's end. What effect will the decline of the NASDAQ have on the Dow?

-- @ (@@@.@), March 06, 1999.

Flint, I agree with you. I should add that part of the message I got (admittedly reading between the lines)was that some of the potential buyers were questioning whether the 2000 economy would be anywhere near the size of the 1999 economy.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 06, 1999.

I agree in the case of consumer products, but for business, computer sales should BOOM! Companies/organizations with ancient computers known to not be Y2K compatible *will* be upgrading this year.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous.com), March 06, 1999.

Dell is not reporting much of a slowdown - they say business is way over last years levels. The grocers alliance is worried about stockpiling hurting their business though - they figure on a sales drop due to people eating their way through a ton of canned goods early next year.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), March 06, 1999.

Why would you expect Dell to have a slowdown in the first place? The slowdown, if any, will show *next* year. Maybe Dell should recognize that it has the same vulnerability that the grocers have.

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), March 06, 1999.

Paul Davis: I agree with you. If Y2K doesn't materialize as some are expecting, people will not go grocery shopping on the magnitude that they have always done in the past. How many people go to the store for a carton of milk and come out with several bags of groceries? Me for one. So before I go to the store to purchase food, I'll be eating my stored food, water and will eat fresh vegggies from my garden. The economical effects of stockpiled households will probably be seen in late January 2000 if Y2K is a bump in the road. That will have an impact on the economy in every sector of consumable goods.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), March 06, 1999.

My business sells computers and software for healthcare applications, and business has never been better. Here's the scary part: Not one single purchaser yet has asked if their new computer or software is y2k compliant. Not one.

-- quiet (cannot s@y.com), March 07, 1999.

My computer vendor/repair/friend that takes care of our office computer is swamped. He did get a letter from the manufacturers of the software we use for billing and the computer it runs on--Letter assures me as the end consumer that this software is y2k compliant. That it has been through multiple tests and all ideosyncracies have been eliminated. Lewis is not afraid to guarantee his rebuilds or new units to be y2k compliant. He is almost overwhelmed with work.....and he doesn't advertise. He expects to be working "500 hours a week or until they run out of money..probably about the first of March 2000". Not one of the manufacturers -- not Dell, not Compaq, not one===would give me a letter of compliance. (and don't say Mac-can't run my billing system on a Mac).

-- Lobo (Hiding@woods.com), March 07, 1999.

I do agree with initial post. Things will slow down closer to December that we get. Not sure the extra money will go into economy if it is evident that things are slowing down. It may go into "safe keeping"

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), March 07, 1999.

Paul and Elbow Grease, I don't know which Dell you're talking about but the one I'm thinking of lost about 30% in stock price value in February alone. Maybe that isn't reflective of sales, maybe it's the costs of fixing Y2K, who knows? Either way, it's a good indicator of where the NASDAQ is headed.

-- @ (@@@.@), March 07, 1999.

Lobo -

If your billing software is compliant and you're running it in Windows you could use a Mac G3 or wait for the Mac G4 and run Virtual PC. I use Windows 95 on my Mac G3 and it runs at the speed of a fast PII. Also, there are PCI cards made by Orange PC that you can pop into Mac that are more expensive but you literally have both a Mac and PC in the same box.

@ - From what I've read and heard as of late Dell is both off in stock price and demand for product.

Mike ==============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), March 08, 1999.

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