Imported oil supply breakdowngreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I understand that the US imports 57% of its oil, mostly from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, two countries that are far behind, perhaps terminally behind, in y2k compliance. If they can't get their drilling platforms, refineries, ports, electrical power systems, oil tankers, etc. compliant in the next 9 1/2 months, what will happen to our economy and our transportation systems and our electrical generation plants that are oil fired? Has anyone addressed this question in a comprehensive manner?
-- cody varian (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 03, 1999
No, but let's hope that cold fusion is discovered in the next 2 weeks, but then again that's still not enough time is it?
-- hotottrot (email@example.com), March 03, 1999.
Cold fusion has been duplicated by over 200 labs, and several foreign countries are developing it. (in spite of the negative opinion by the US DOE, and others who have an interest in seeing it never come to the US)
Heck, I've heard about a water-powered generator that's suitable for home use. IF only I could track down that info again. It's not quite ready for home useage yet, but they are working on getting some larger commercial setups going first, before the residential market.
It's a pity that they probably won't be available before Y2k.
-- Bill (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 03, 1999.
The government addressed it in 1973. Cars with even numbered plates could buy gas on certain days. Cars with odd numbered plates could buy on the other days. There are also a number of threads on WWII rationing with coupons, vouchers, farmer priority, etc. Your question is THE biggy. Your question is also the pink elephant in the parlor that Senators Bennett and Dodd and others are pretending doesn't exist. Cody, I'll pay you $10 (ten dollars) if you can get a US Senator to directly address your question. I'll pay you by personal check in the US Mail on Feb. 15, 2000.
-- Puddintame (email@example.com), March 03, 1999.
The Committee says it is going to pay special attention to that issue (I guess so!) in the months ahead. The oil situation is one of the most dangerous in the entire Y2K field. Go through the numbers on page 32 and add it all up- it's quite amazing. Very, very, very, very roughly, around one-quarter of all US consumption (not imports, consumption) is at "high risk" of disruption. My.
-- Drew Parkhill/CBN News (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 03, 1999.
Front page of Greenville News,3/3/2000, Greenville SC byline--Gannett News Service--David Judson
Report: Y2K mess likely to miss US VERY polly. Final paragraph-- "Elsewhere overseas, the report warned of problems in oil industries in the MiddleEast and Venezuela, and in some financial sectors in Asia".
Where does this dodo think his gas for his Beemer comes from? This is the FIRST article that hasn't been buried back somewhere about the start of the want ads and it has to be one that has roses and daisies intertwined in prose. If we do go down, I hope that no editors come here for food. Lobo
-- Lobo (Hiding@woods.com), March 04, 1999.
Cody, this report might give you some insight--and it doesn't even take into account Y2k!. I've cut and pasted only the summary and table of contents.
Congressional Research Service Report for Congress
World Oil Production After Year 2000: Business As Usual or Crises?
Joseph P. Riva, Jr. Specialist in Earth Sciences Science Policy Research Division
August 18, 1995
During the Arab oil embargo of early 1970s, the United States gross national product declined and unemployment doubled. Some 20 years later, in response to a threat to Middle East oil supplies, the Gulf War was fought. Oil fuels world commerce and accounts for 40 percent of total primary energy demand. Oil availability in the future will be a major factor in the world's economic condition. There have been projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that world oil production will have to be increased by about one-third in the next 15 years to meet rapidly rising demand. This would require a major expansion of oil production capacity in the Persian Gulf OPEC countries that is far above their present plans. While the Gulf OPEC countries may have sufficient oil reserves to support such an additional production increase, an expansion of such magnitude would require capital that they may not have and the assistance of foreign financial and oil interests that they may not want.
Outside of the United States, where proved reserves are defined primarily on petroleum engineering criteria, there are many vested interests that define oil reserves to meet political or economic objectives. Discounting the reserves that may be exaggerated and utilizing only that portion of the resources that may be produced in actual practice could reduce the ultimately recoverable oil remaining in the world to a level where the midpoint of world oil depletion would occur at the turn of the century, followed by a production decline of nearly three percent per year. Such a resource driven world oil shortfall is a worst case scenario, not being amenable to the usual political, economic, or military solutions.
Deficient productive capacity has not yet caused an oil crisis, but that does not mean it never will. Significant increases in world oil demand will have to be met primarily from Persian Gulf supplies. This is a region with a history of wars, illegal occupations, soups, revolutions, sabotage, terrorism, and oil embargoes. To these possibilities may be added growing Islamist movements with various antipathies to the West. If oil production were constrained, oil prices could rise abruptly along with adverse world economic repercussions. If the IEA and EIA are correct on the demand side, deficient world oil productive capacity could cause an oil crisis within 15 years and political disruptions in Saudi Arabia could cause one sooner. However, if the increases in world oil demand were more moderate, and there is long-term relative peace in the Middle East, with increasing foreign participation in upstream oil activities, a business as usual world oil demand and supply situation would be a likely scenario for much of the next century.
INTRODUCTION Business As Usual -- World Supply -- World Demand Middle East Oil -- History -- Petroleum Geology -- Reserves -- Production Potential -- Potential Problems Potential Crises
-- Old Git (email@example.com), March 04, 1999.
Hey wait a sec - I thought the Gulf War was fought to restore the sovereignty of that great beacon of democracy - Kuwait. I mean that's what President Bush said. And now Congress comes out saying it was all about something as puny as ... oil?
Sheesh - I thought y2k was makin' my head spin....
-- gideon (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 04, 1999.
One reason that my husband feels a 2-5 scenario is most likely, at least here, is that we live in a very oil rich province, with a huge agricultural base and a small population. Folk tend to pull together, still, in emergencies. I think he may well be right, that we could escape relatively unscathed. It's just that I think a 5 is apt to be 'relatively unscathed'.
(imitation being the most sincere flattery...)
-- Tricia the Canuck (email@example.com), March 04, 1999.
Soups? I like cous-cous but not camel stew!
-- Paul Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 06, 1999.
Afte years of selling off the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (established after the mess in the 1970's) President Clinton has made the decision to replenish it. Officially, it's being done to take advantage of low prices. You figure out any other motives.
Remember, gasoline from this reserve is sold to Americans at "market prices" though.
My only question is: I think this reserve is comprised of oil--rather than refined petroleum. If so, that still leaves as a question mark the ability to refine it domestically in large quantities.
-- FM (email@example.com), March 07, 1999.
Replenishing the SPF is part of a multi-part program by Energy Dept. to help out domestic oil producers - the oil is not really purchased, but comes as royalty from federal leases. It'll take 28 million barrels off the market (a paltry amount, but every little bit helps). And the fact that prices are low makes the gov't look fiscally prudent (ha!)
Cody: if it makes you feel any better, the other two largest exporters of oil and refined products to the US are Mexico and Canada, both closer and further along in y2k work than Saudi Arabia or Venezuela. The fifth I think is Nigeria, which is to say: Shell. Shell is considered the leader in Y2k remediation in the Oil Industry.
-- Morgan (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 07, 1999.
Morgan! How are you? Come back later... I've got a question for you. I'll start a new thread about 3PM GMT (Midnight JST)
Your going to love it!
P.S. Our 'friend' has left. Gone. Packed up. Hit the Road.
-- PNG (email@example.com), March 08, 1999.
How ya doin'... 3pm GMT, hmmm, tonight's a busy night - I'll have to check back in the morning... Re: our 'friend' - darn.
-- Morgan (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 08, 1999.