I was just wondering.... has the panic started? After the events of yesterday, did any of you notice more than normal shoppers? Did you notice any bare shelves?

I had planned on going out to do a little hmmmmm.... grocery shopping.... yeah that's it, but due to the spouse having to work last night, I couldn't. So... I was just wanting to know what you others might have noticed. Thanks

-- (cannot-say@this.time), March 03, 1999

Answers

I hope there is no panic. The whole country could stock up real well if we just do it calmly. Remember, the JIT inventory systems that all the stores use now are working fine. An early start at stocking-up will enable the stores to speed up their processes and let the whole country stock-up at a non-panic pace.

-- Rick H (I'mset@home.house), March 03, 1999.

Nope, and if it does start, it will hit in a hurry. I'm thinking now that people are numbed so that they won't connect the dots until late fall.

-- steady-the (herds@mooing.com), March 03, 1999.

The biggest news seemed to be the poor status of the health care industry. As I recall, one of yesterday's threads said her local pharmacy was buried in prescription refill orders following the broadcasts.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), March 03, 1999.

Was out to Walmart today...was very quiet. Same with the malls.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), March 03, 1999.

Actually, panic now would be the best thing that could happen, but I think that thread was fully explored a couple of weeks ago.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 03, 1999.

Hi! I did intelligence analysis for 18 years which kind of frames my thoughts on this subject. Personally, I don't think we will ever see a panic. I think it will be like the frog boiling in water. As long as the water doesn't get too hot all at once, the frog will never realize he is in grave danger until it is too late. Anyway...I think people are like that. They are slowly being indoctrinated to Y2K and at the same time to the line, " don't worry" by our government. At the same time the news is not taking the whole thing too seriously and everyone believes that like all problems in America, this one too will be fixed with only a few bumps in the road.

If they continually believe "hope is around the corner" as things slowly deteriorate they will not truly wake up to the gravity and seriousness of the problem until it is too late.

I think the key to getting some panic is to have some major serious negative events connected with Y2K, not just slow deterioration. But I think it will continue to be slow. Even as systems fail, companies have back-ups and supplies built up that will last them for a few months as they "assume" they can get their systems fixed in time before their emergency supplies run out. Additionally, big problems will be covered up as much as possible as companies will be too embarrassed to admit they have a serious problem.

So, I don't think you will ever see a panic. I don't think there was one in the great depression, because the break-down was gradual. I don't think the Fall of the Roman Empire was accompanied by panic because it was gradual. People get immune to bad news, especially when accompanied by the message that "things will get better," and "hope is just around the corner."

It kind of makes the whole thing incredibly scary.

Sincerely, Apple

-- apple (villarta@itsnet.com), March 03, 1999.

Ccontributing to that complacency, Sir Apple of the Newton, is the fact that companies and governments "are working on it" - which is true - and almost all are in a stage where two things are both true:

First - Their deadlines are apparently far off - June, July, August- October, etc. so that there is no expectation now they "must be finished" by the general public. Hence, "no worries, mate - they're working on it = they will get done."

Second - There is "some" little wiggle room for most projects still - thus, when a federal agency like the IRS completely blows an unrealistic schedule to "complete remediation by January" - they miss the deadline, but nobody cares, there's still time left, these schedules always slip" is an available excuse. So no alarms sound - again, in the general public or news media. (Same thing actually).

Compunding everything is the government's role in actually hiding the true nature impersonal nature of the threat. Thus, even if people are uneasy about things - they actually have to fight what amounts to massive pressure to find out what resembles the truth.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 03, 1999.

Yep, it has.

Matter of fact, the great Katadyn Water Filter and Alladin Kerosene Lamps Panic occured last year, shortly followed by the Woodburning Cookstove Panic. There have been scattered patches of Small Gasoline Generator Panic over the last few months, and the Small Diesel Generator Panic is increasing from coast to coast. The One Of My Friends Can Get Me Into The LDS Cannery Panic is firmly entrenched.

Went shopping today, have seen nary a hint of the upcoming Boxes Of Oatmeal Panic. I also saw not a clue about the upcoming panics in olive oil, batteries, tuna, canned meat, soups, etc.

I'm not trying to be funny here, really. If you want an Alladin Lamp, it's a panic. If you already have your Alladin lamp, it's not a panic. I don't want to buy a gun, therefore I could care less how many are on dealer's shelves. It's all a matter of individual perspective.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), March 03, 1999.

The big news today seems to be Monica Lewinsky.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 03, 1999.

Some of you are definitely in denial The following progression of events is essentially inevitable now, simply based on the poll-recorded (facts!) percentages of people who say they will withdraw all or most of their bank accounts. Following is y2k best we can hope for (i.e. it may be worse, this is only 1999 stuff!):

- over 5% of population attempt to empty their accounts
- not enough cash to cover
- Clinton orders bank holiday
- demonetization of cash, you have until 1999-nn-nn to turn it in
- transition to all-electronic economy
- outcome branch: either y2k "road warrior" or electronic/fed slave state, depending on how bad the code really turns out to be in 1999.

The above is now inevitable.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), March 03, 1999.

above should read: "depending on how bad the code turns out to be in 2000". Date bug in my text !

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), March 03, 1999.

There doesn't seem to be a panic now, except in the small areas mentiond above. There won't be a generalized panic as long a people generally don't get it. If you don't get it there is just no reason to panic.

I predict that even with bank hoildays or other dramatic events there will be a huge portion of the population who still won't get it. They will say "Look, they're taking care of things. I don't really care about {whatever-is-wrong}, I mostly use the ATM for the $20 I need now and then. Those freaks are just a bunch of wierdos who want to hoard all our food. Something needs to be done about them". Or words to those effects.

It is the saddest thing to happen this lifetime: but when most of the Terminally Optimistic get it - it will be too late.

-- Greybear, who doesn't have much faith in the Common Sense of the average man today. And even less faith in his/her ability to care for themselves.

- Got Extra?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), March 03, 1999.

Greybear - see Apple's comments above - you and he are saying essentially the same thing, and it looks like the *only* logical perspective at this point in time.

Apple - nice to meetcha, spent 14 in the biz myself, all o.d. green.

Arlin [just another old crow in the crowd]

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), March 03, 1999.

Naaaaah. Big news today is BaBa WaWa's interview with Mooo-onica. Estimated audience, about 50 million.

But if that many teevee- besotted Joe Lunchboxes paid attention to the Senate special committee report, it would be a different story. Of course, that's why Joe Lunchbox ain't gonna make it... .

-- nobody (nobody@home.org), March 03, 1999.

You all are assuming a unified and coherent command structure in Russia to trigger this Fall attack. None such exists. There would be disagreement over such a weighty decision - not for humanitarian reasons, but practical issues and political self-interest/self- promotion issues. It would have to be either substantial political/military command unity (unlikely) or a lone-wolf rogue commander.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), March 03, 1999.

Panic? It won't start in America until the coaches say: "It's time to panic."

Or treat people like mules: Hit them over the head with a 2x4 (construction grade or better)to get their attention. Only then they will hear: "It's time to panic."

And they will panic.

-- wasp-> (doesntlooklike@foobar.com), March 03, 1999.

Blue, can you prove your comments? This is the first I've heard of turning in cash, etc. What are you basing this on? Thanks

-- (rick@ina.com), March 03, 1999.

The only thing that needs to be proved is the percentage of people planning to withdraw all/most of their cash. This has been reported about a zillion times, somebody help me, post the link to one of these surveys. After that, the chain is inevitable: there isn't enough cash, Klinton MUST therefore declare a bank holiday, but the economy MUST continue to function SOMEHOW, therefore it HAS to become all-electronic (in 1999, while computers are still working). This is Mark Ludwig's thesis, and I can't see any hole in it.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), March 03, 1999.

Arlin,

Never realized we had another Old Crow on board the forum. I was Garden State Chapter, Empire State Chapter, Kittyhawk Roost, Mojave Green Roost and High Desert Weasel Den during my Old Crow years.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), March 03, 1999.

I need to dispute one point. The "Great Depression" DID indeed have its panics. They were in 1929. They were in response to margin calls for the brokers and high rollers. They resulted in a number smaller than believed, but large enough to generate the icon of the skyscraper jumping trader suicide. They were cash panics which caused the closing of many banks, many of which did NOT reopen.

Chuck, who hates revisionist history

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), March 03, 1999.

Wild Weasel;

>Never realized we had another Old Crow on board the forum. I was Garden State Chapter, Empire State Chapter, Kittyhawk Roost, Mojave Green Roost and High Desert Weasel Den during my Old Crow years.<

I've been meaning to ask you if you have ever seen the official SAC gunners patch? We used the bulldog from the Mack truck company as our emblem. You know about the crow (raven). Take a peek. It's the one on the left. Notice the crow?.

http://www.gunners.net

S.O.B.

-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), March 03, 1999.

WW -

yeah but I was an OD groundling sort, analysis, not dodging telephone poles, or missiles the size of (hey - I saw that footage in Unarmed and Unafraid! yikes!)nope, nope, analysis, and a bit of time with the headsets on, that's all. Places you've most likely avoided - pyong taek for instance and sierra vista...

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), March 03, 1999.

"transition to all-electronic economy "

That should take care of the homeless population in short order.

Back in the 60's I knew a guy who'd been a bombardier in a B-47. They were based at Offutt. He told me that during his hitch they made a number of runs to Europe. On the way back the bomb bay was empty and the crew used the space to haul back goodies they'd bought over there. One of his crew actually bought a Mercedes in Germany and managed to get it into the bomb bay. Figured to save a bundle in freight and duties. Halfway back they lost an engine and had to lighten up. So my friend was probably the only AF bombardier who ever dropped a Mercedes sedan into the Atlantic. Broke the other guy's heart. (Yeah, off topic, I know.)

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), March 04, 1999.

Blue kitty cat - Freudian slip time. When I first read your post I saw the words demonitization of cash but picked it up as demonization of cash. Of course that has already happened. :)

Chuck T.N.D. - Interesting fact on the suicides of the finanacial types. There were more suicides per year in 31 and 32 than in 29 since in 29 there was still a lot of "it'll turn around soon", whereas in 31 and 32 it was more like "it's never going to recover".

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), March 04, 1999.

Chuck and Ken, I guess that it goes to show that despair kills more surely than hunger - don't recall hearing of too many in N America starving in 1929-1932.

My favorite Churchill quote: Never, never, never, never, never give up. (He even looked a bit bulldogish, didn't he :-)

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), March 04, 1999.

Did anyone see ABC World News Tonight the day of the Senate report release? Peter Jennings, at the end of a lengthy story on Y2K, mentioned the American Red Cross and its suggestion that people "have some extra cash on hand."

No panic yet. Y2K panic doesn't have to start with the public...it could start within the financial community. I still say that the public won't worry until a Y2K failure happens that affects them personally.

Nobody wants to believe that the stock market party of 1995 to 1998 could end.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), March 04, 1999.

Well, last night, I went to do a little ..... shopping, yeah its shopping. Anyway, I went to a grocery very close to me. Mind you, this is a fair sized store. There are only 3 of these stores in the area, and are family owned. The "storehouse" for these stores is not to far from me. I have never been in this store when it was not stocked to the rafters and being restocked, that is until last night.

For the first time in my life, I saw a shortage of TP. I needed to get a few rolls, and the only choice I had was a 36 roll bundle. And I got the last one! There were plenty of places on the shelves that were empty. I had to look and look to find out what should have been there.

I did find a few good buys, and did my share to help is the success of this grocery store. Let's see, they had the Lipton noodle and sauce, and Lipton rice packages for $.58 each, so heck.... I just about bought them out. Picked up plenty of tuna and chicken for a "fair" price. All in all, I feel just a little better about my "Pantry" after last nights shopping. So, if you are in the OKC area, please go check out the Crest stores. At times, they have buys that you shouldn't pass up.

Also, another thing that I noticed was almost sold out of was the jugs of water (the 1 gallon and 2.5 gallons). In all of the times that I have been there, there has been the whole side of the isle filled with them, but not last night. Maybe something like 15 gallons left. Go figure. For some strange reason, I think a few of my neighbors are starting to wake up. For that, I am very glad.

-- (cannot-say@this.time), March 04, 1999.