Deja vu? A Different Twist on Y2k.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Two things are becoming more clear and more certain each day. One is that many countries are poorly prepared for y2k. The other fact is that, relatively speaking, the US is way ahead of many other countries it its y2k progress.
Near the end of WW2 there was fear that the US would be financially devistated. The US was in debt, many of our pre-war businesses and products were gone due to the war effort. What we did not realize until later was that the post war reconstruction demanded our products and services. After the war, many countries had no government and even less money. Despite the lack of money, the US companies still did business with these countries. We didn't get immediate cash; we just got control of the world's markets! That's how we replaced the British Empire and gained the world wide control that was once England's.
Oh yes, foriegn investmests, gold, and skilled workers flooded into the US and were used to help gain markets in the very countries from which they came.
With this in mind, lets assume that the damage from Y2k is high to the US and even higher abroad. It would seem that we might be in for a repeat; big damage followed by reconstruction. Yes, we will have mess to dig out of but demand for the old USofA's products and services could be very high. Again, many countries won't have cash to pay the US. But, eventually those countries will have to be repaired and someone's going to get the work to do it.
In fact, these type of happenings are already in progress. Why hasn't the stock market or dollar dropped yet? Why is the Euro falling? One reason, not the only one, is that foriegn money is flooding into the US?
All I am bringing to light is post war reconstruction economics; not your every day topic but one that lends itself to both analysis and prediction based on experience from the past. So much of y2k is new but maybe this is one aspect that is going to be a repeat.
So what are some of the implications of post-y2k reconstruction?
-- Steve Tomczak (email@example.com), March 02, 1999
China will have the largest functional Navy/military in the world.
-- CT (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 1999.
After WWII, this country was not war torn and physically damaged. If our own country is disrupted and our own infrastructure is in a shambles, how will we have the products and services to help other nations?
-- lurker here (email@example.com), March 02, 1999.
Truman and Eisenhower vs. Clinton.
A press that did its job, and was actually independently seeking the truth.
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 1999.
Clinton will be gone by the time post-Y2k reconstruction gets going. The primaries next year will be _very_ important.
-- No Spam Please (email@example.com), March 02, 1999.
No spam aka gon't get it yet,
What primarys, what elections?
Hold a vote via Pony Express? ( comeing as a new IPO,,ticker sysb. PXP at an exchange near you )
Bubba will probably declare M-law and stilllllll be here 10 years from now.
Got ky2 jelly?
-- CT (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 1999.
Let me point out a few reasons why I believe your scenario is unlikely.
First point, you said...
"The other fact is that, relatively speaking, the US is way ahead of many other countries in its y2k progress."
The U.S. *needs* to be ahead of other countries. America is more dependent on computers for its standard of living than almost any other country on the planet.
Secondly, you said...
"What we did not realize until later was that the post war reconstruction demanded our products and services."
As someone else pointed out, our country was fortunate after World War II. The war was not fought American soil. This time, it won't just be Europe's infrastructure that's compromised. The U.S. is VERY dependent on just-in-time deliveries, which could be significantly slowed by a "death-of-a-thousand-cuts" on our distribution system.
Third point, you said,
"In fact, these type of happenings are already in progress. Why hasn't the stock market or dollar dropped yet? Why is the Euro falling? One reason, not the only one, is that foriegn money is flooding into the US?"
Maybe you've forgotten how close the financial markets came to avoiding a big problem last September. Let me refer you to two articles. This one from "Newsweek" last fall...
"The Crash of '99?"
...and this one the three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board to keep the financial system afloat...
I think the bottom line though, really, is that consumers and businesses do not want to believe that the party of 1995 to 1998 could end.
Years worth of productivity gains in the economy could very well be wiped out by February of 2000. My opinion is that the U.S. standard of living is going to take a major hit in 2000.
-- Kevin (email@example.com), March 02, 1999.
Interesting hypothesis steve.
In my opinion our country is quite dissimilar today compared to post war. We are a service based economy. Much of the manufacturing base has been dismantled and sent outside the US. The US could respond to the worldwide needs post y2k, but it would take a while (years), to ramp up production. We are extremely dependent on obtaining hard goods from outside the US. With these countries likely to have massive y2k problems, the outlook is bleak for saving the world.
-- Greg Holmberg (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 1999.
Go take a drive down your town's commercial avenue. Look at all the stores in the strip malls: what do they offer? Beauty salons, chinese take-out, manicures, videos, travel agents, eclectic boutiques, toy stores, here and there a Midas muffler. Ask yourself: how many of these shops would last if the country takes a serious economic hit. We already have a large marginalized class (got trailer parks?), with spurious 'unemployment' statistics issued by our leaders that discount those who've 'stopped looking for work.' Turn your gaze to corporate America: how many of those financial and management companies are going to be around, with or without code remediation? We've been fed a lie our entire lives, removed from the land that once sustained us. We tank now, we're history. Accept it now. You've got ten months to prepare spiritually and physically for what's coming. Enter into a deeper prayer life, and ask your Creator (whether hairy thunderer, gaia-dryad, or merciful savior) for some serious advice. "Rice and beans won't fill that hole/ that yearns deep down within your soul." (sorry)
-- Spidey (email@example.com), March 02, 1999.
"China will have the largest functional Navy/military in the world."
A Navy using what for fuel? Coal? Cordwood? Banks of oars?
-- Tom Carey (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 1999.
Mon Dieu, Spidey! Your pessimism shows. Even Yardieni thinks we'll come out of the recession by end of year.
-- Lucy (email@example.com), March 02, 1999.
Lucy: non, mon cheri, it's not pessimism, it's stark-raving optimism. I'm with old Henry David Thoreau: "a man is rich in proportion to those things we can do without." We're all gonna be millionaires! Seriously, I think many people who today are asleep will be forced to awaken. I hope it's not too rude to hope that.
-- Spidey (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 1999.
folks China has had the largest functional army in the world for the last 40 years (in the mid '70's they had 200 MILLION people under arms when you included their reserves) - which is entirely irrelevant for two reasons:
1. most importantly Chinese psychology, the underlying theory of which is that everyone else in the world desperatly wishes to become Chinese. They are paranoid about this, but it is a defensive, rather than expansive paranoia. In other words their primary concern is that no one messes with them - beyond that they also want to be left alone. playing invasion and conquest games, especially transcontinentally would be antithetical to their basic nature, since to do so would require them to leave China, and who would want to do that, since everyone really wants to be Chinese...see how that thought pattern works.
Their entire military is structured according to that psychological outlook - they have never had, and do not now have, the capacity to directly project power outside their own hemisphere, other than through the use of a small number of nuclear weapons. Even their navy is designed to defend China and Chinese interests in their sphere of influence (asia and the western Pacific).
I suggest that if one is worried about attempts to institute nondemocratic government, one needs to be looking a little closer to home. *sigh*
Oh, and for the folks who think that there wont be elections next year: if the situation is so bad that there is no capacity to hold elections, then there will also be no capacity to enforce any sort of central government, elected, appointed, self-appointed, or otherwise...so why get hyper about it?
-- Arlin H. Adams (email@example.com), March 02, 1999.
Spidey is maybe the smartest cookie here meethinx.
-- rumplestiltskin (patrickMcG@egalliveht.com), March 04, 1999.