Here's a formula for Y2K Disaster & why. Is it a good summary of evidence?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
This is a 1 page digest of the obstacles, problems with Y2K. I try to put it into an interesting formula to help people understand the gravity of this problem. Here is the link http://www.geocities.com/HotSprings/Villa/3388/2000.html Please give me some feedback. Any inaccuracies? Thanks.
-- Raymond Kwong (Kcorner67@hotmail.com), February 28, 1999
-- Sysman (email@example.com), February 28, 1999.
I'm getting very leery of anything to do with Geocities. I opened that link, got one of the 1/4 page ads, closed that, had a page of text with no formatting. Found I couldn't scroll down, then my browser froze and I had to reboot. So I'll take a pass on this one.
-- Tom Carey (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 28, 1999.
Hey, I like this formula! I like to use that for a flyer to give to friends who are still skeptical. Your aticle 20 questions for y2k skeptics is well-written. A place or two may need to be updated.
-- Joy (email@example.com), February 28, 1999.
Thanks for this interesting piece. I just don't know whether 50 billion refers to the number of chips in the world or just America? Anyone know the figure for U.S.?
-- May (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 28, 1999.
-- Sysman (email@example.com), March 01, 1999.
"The point is that as more and more systems fail completely, in the sense of requiring the long term fix of actual remediation (e.g. the unemployment systems), the failures themselves will consume more and more of the increasingly scarce resources available to deal with the failures and the ongoing process of Y2K itself. These resources include programmers, temporary manual workers and money.
I am convinced that at some point the rate of failures will be so high that there will not be enough resources to deal with the problems. At this point the web will collapse and so will the structure of society. I think it entirely possible that this will occur this year, before the rollover itself. Not because the rate of failures will be extremely high, but rather through the concomitant effect of a collapse of the global economy, a process which I believe is already underway. When the economy tanks, there won't be enough cash available to finish the ongoing remediation projects and they will add to the huge number of systems which will fail after the rollover. If it were just Y2K I would still be concerned, but not quite so much. But "it's the economy, stupid!" (nothing personal).
The two together will feed on each other -- the economic collapse will cause Y2K failures to be worse and the Y2K failures will make an economic recovery impossible, leading eventually to the devolutionary spiral I have predicted.
In many ways I am more concerned about the economy, which I see as in much worse shape than in 1929, just before the Great Depression. And this time I see no way out." - Moshe Shulman
-- Leska (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 01, 1999.