Hope some of you computer pros can help me with this problem. About the first part of Feb there was a link posted on this forum that took you to a farm site, where there were 2 articles about a mythical farmer, Mr. R.U.Ready. The exact addresses were: www.agriculture.com/technology/thisweek/y2k_1farmer.html www.agriculture.com/technology/thisweek/y2k_2farmer.html

These were extremely interesting to me and I needed to print them to give to some of my farmer family members. However, the words were all cut off on the right side, and I could not delete the "non- article" message bar on the left side and scoot everything over so it would print right. Can anyone post those articles so that they can be printed without cutting off the right end of the sentences? If so, THANKS IN ADVANCE!!!!

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), February 27, 1999

Answers

Performed a simple cut and paste. Not sure how this will look, but heregoes . . .

THIS WEEK

Technology News from @gInnovator Online news files:

How are you preparing for the Year 2000...?

"R.U. Ready" is a pseudonym for a real farmer who manages a 3,000-acre grain operation. In this series from @gInnovator, he outlines his outlook for the Year 2000 problem. He asks some hard questions, and lays out his preparations for inputs, equipment, and financial needs. Whether you agree or disagree, you need to address the same questions. Preparation prevents panic!

See our new Agriculture Year 2000 page: http://www.agriculture.com/technology/aginnovator/y2k.html Post comments or questions in our @g Computing or Precision @g or @ccess to Experts forums... ______________________________________________________________________ __

Case study: A farmer prepares for the Year 2000

"Preparation prevents panic"

@gInnovator recently interviewed a farm family hard at work preparing for problems related to Y2K issues. Here's the first installment of a multi-part series on their strategies for both their farm business and their personal lives. They've agreed to provide information for the articles, but wish to remain anonymous. We're going to refer to them as the "R.U. Ready" family.

Based on other research by @gInnovator, their approach seems similar to that of other farmers who anticipate problems associated with the Year 2000, so their experience may provide a representative example.

First, some background: Our farmer is part of a large diversified extended family enterprise with more than 4,000 acres spread out over two geographically diverse locations, one concentrated on crop production, the other on crops and livestock. R.U. Ready is not in a position to make all the decisions for the farm, but manages the largest portion of the crop acreage. Each main location lies about an hour on either side of a smaller major Midwestern city.

"First, you have to understand the problem," stresses R.U. Ready. "Then you have to develop a plan." As part of his planning and communicating with other family members, R.U. Ready developed the accompanying flow chart which illustrates his approach to the problem:

First question: Is Y2K a problem? Options: No (but why are firms spending millions to correct a scam?) Yes (but will it be fixed in time) -If yes, then there's no problem to prepare for. -If not, then you can either do nothing or take action. This depends on your answer to this question: will the power go out? -If yes, then, can you survive without power? --if yes, then there's no problem to prepare for --if no, then you'll need food, heat, water, etc. If the answer to will the power go out is no, but there will be some problems, then you need to answer more questions regarding food, fuel, communications, farm vendors, packing plants and processors etc.

"We've done considerable reading and investigation on Y2K issues. As I see it, there is no way around supply interruptions for the Year 2000," says R.U. Ready. "Some will start before 2000 and others could occur for an extended time. So we want to be prepared for at least a year."

R.U. Ready Family members have discussed Y2K and have developed some preliminary strategies. For the farm business, these involve purchasing enough supplies in 1999 to carry them through the year 2000.

"Since booking two years of supplies amounts to a major financial decision for most farmers," notes R.U. Ready, "we will review these plans as 1999 rolls around. While our operation is financially solid, we still have to be careful with expenditures. Currently, the plan is to have fuel and chemicals on hand in 1999 to farm another year. We'll also have some of our seed needs on hand."

Fertilizer: "We plan to apply all our fertilizer needs in the fall of 1999," notes R.U. Ready. "We generally follow a fall program anyway. And our fields test high enough that we don't plan to apply any extra for succeeding years."

Chemicals: "We'll book a two-year supply of dry chemicals in the spring of 1999," he continues. "Liquid chemicals must be kept from freezing, so we are still weighing options and looking for dry alternatives." For example, they may buy more Accent in 1999, then trade it for Surpass in spring 2000 if they can. They've considered renting a climate-controlled storage facility, but worry about the risk of a large inventory outside their control should the power system go down or become erratic.

Seed: "Due to the storage concerns, we won't be buying much if any additional seed," explains R.U. Ready. But they are concerned about seed supplies. Seed generally becomes available in the spring before planting, notes R.U. Ready. "This could a big problem in 2000, particu l a r l y for prod ucts coming from the Southern Hemisphere. Right now, we don't plan on ordering shorter season corn, though we may experience planting delays in spring 2000.

"If we would decide to tie up the dollars in 1999 for seed in 2000, we can't store it properly. But it might be worth the risk of poor germination compared to not getting any seed at all in the spring of 2000." If necessary, they would plant soybean seed out of the bin. And they could also plant hybrid corn out of the bin, but yields will be cut in half.

So, in 1999 R.U. Ready will plant a little open pollinated corn, which he expects to produce 500 to 600 bushels of additional seed stock for 2000. This corn must be harvested in the ear, so he has set up a hand sheller. And he's reading up on how to grow and harvest open-pollinated seed.

Fuel: They plan to contract for a year's supply (12,000 gallons) of diesel fuel at the cropping location. That's enough to supply their 11-kilowatt diesel-powered electrical generator over the winter as well as fuel the farm equipment for the year 2000 crop. Their generator links to either an inverter board (to charge a bank of batteries) or to 220-volt equipment such as dryer fans or a welder.

"The real Y2K issue comes down to energy supplies," states R.U. Ready. "I think frequent and widespread outages is a best case scenario. We'll stretch our power supplies as necessary and as far as possible."

Equipment: They've contacted Cat, Case-Cummins and Deere regarding microprocessor chips in their newer tractor and truck engines. "We traced the systems to the fuel pumps, but the manufacturers assure us there are no date-sensitive aspects to these systems," he says. He hopes they're right.

And they'll have to make a decision soon about their combine. "We normally trade very four years--and we're due to trade after the 1999 harvest. Either way, in 1999 we'll be laying in a supply of extra parts, filters, oil and other supplies," exp la in s R. U. Ready. Or maybe sooner. "By the time YOU hear about shortages and problems, it will be too late to do much about it because everyone else will also be scrambling," he notes.

Grain storage: R.U. Ready typically harvests and stores their corn and soybeans on the farm. He often air dries a substantial portion over the winter. They harvest this portion at 20% moisture then air dry with fans to 15%. "We may not have electricity in the winter of 2000 to do that," he notes. "We've considered additional propane drying to completely dry the grain in the fall of 1999."

So far, the plan is to book enough propane for 1999 harvest, plus fill up all the existing propane tanks after harvest--as they expect shortages and transportation problems later. "We may get additional propane tanks, but they cost about $1 a gallon to buy so it adds up."

Their 1990 grain drying system does not have microprocessors. "So as long as we have power we expect to be operational," says R.U. Ready. If necessary, they could run 7.5 hp fans on each of a dozen bins, and work out a schedule for their other electrical needs from the diesel generator, as well as getting power to distant locations. A tractor-powered PTO generator is another option they may utilize. They'd get about 12 hours of operation per tankful, and have a 300-gallon fuel trailer they now use for hauling fuel to the field.

Livestock: The other major portion of the operation is a large diversified livestock-grain operation with hogs and cattle. "The main concern is to keep the livestock alive," notes R.U. Ready. "But the question is for how long. Most of the animals are raised on contract, so have set schedules of receipt and delivery. A lot will depend on how operational are the elevators and packing plants and transportation systems."

The R.U. Ready family stores about 1,000 acres of crop at the livestock operation location, along with silage and ear corn for their 2,000 head of cattle. They c oul d a lso fi ll a Harve store if necessary. They have a diesel generator at this location too, and will stock up on fuel. They plan to fill all their propane tanks in 1999.

"We should have little effect until it comes time to sell the livestock," points out R.U. Ready. "If things are really bad, we may be bartering for butchers--or worse, trying to protect the herd from bandits."

"We won't have these problems in our own operation, but we're also concerned about embedded chips and controllers in feed mills and environmental controls in confinement buildings." They also have questions about veterinary supplies, along with the rest of the infrastructure of the economy.

Markets: Currently all their bins are empty, but they'll be full after the 1998 harvest. "We hope to be able to get rid of our 1998 crop and have room for the 1999 crop. This could be a problem due to high carryover, low demand, and low prices," relates R.U. Ready. "Many farmers in our areas are building bins. We're seeing a horrible basis and export market. But livestock megafarms find it hard to shut off their contract schedule, so they'll have to continue feeding livestock."

"If we are able to move the 1998 crop and harvest the 1999 crop, we'll likely store most of it on the farm. We'll take our lumps in the market as they come in 1999 and 2000. However, we have serious questions about the infrastructure for both grain marketing and transportation. We can always eat the grain, or burn it (we'll have a biomass stove, too), and if we can't get any other seed we can plant it," he adds. Barter for neighboring livestock farmers might also be an option.

Leases: "We considered putting clauses in our cash leases so we could cancel them if we cannot obtain inputs to farm the ground," explains R.U. Ready. "However, we don't want to raise questions in the minds of our landlords. And this will be okay if any Y2K problems end up being short-term--less than a year. But there are questions about the status of the banking system for lease payments due in 2000. And farmers renting marginal or high dollar ground may decide to drop some farms to reduce their expenses."

Government: Will the government decide to enact martial law "to secure domestic order? Will this involve "appropriation" of supplies, such as fuel? Their fiscal year starts in October 1999, and as of now it appears that government services systems may not be fully operational. "So that is real possibility for the fall of 1999. But if the National Guard is going to do the farming, we'll all be in big trouble for sure!" he quips.

Finances: "For many farmers, the financial aspects of farming in the spring of 1999 will be a bigger issue than the year 2000 questions," projects R.U. Ready. "Not everyone will be in a position to farm in 2000, though we expect to be prepared."

R.U. Ready notes many landlords still want to hold rents steady, but farmers are looking at $50 or more less income per acre. He thinks many farmers will not want to fight it and will exit agriculture before 1999 even if they're not currently in financial trouble. Others will stay in--and look for bargains in the next couple of years. "If you expect a bad case scenario, you'll want to preserve your purchasing power and get better deals on the other side of 2000 than you can currently get on this side," he points out.

"If stockholders see their equity plummet with falling stock prices, farmers should R.U. Ready to pur chase farmland at depressed prices over the next couple of years," suggests R.U. Ready. "We may be surprised at how much pressure backs off land values if stocks do go down. If investor demand goes out of the market, land prices could go down fast."

"Guys that need money the most may not be able to get it in 1999 or 2000. Many financial statements don't look so good right now, considering $2.40 grain under loan that is now worth less than $2.00 per bushel--that's a big hit," he points out. "Guys that are in good financial shape can borrow money for the next year--and may do that to fund stockpiling. If nothing much happens with Y2K problems, the most they're out is another year's interest. Still, you could get hit with price changes on inputs, or stuck with something you're rather not use. But this will be a minor problem compared to the alternatives.

"Still, I expect farmers with dollars on hand to prepare their business for the coming uncertainty -- and spend more on personal preparation for their families," he concludes.

Personal preparations: "It's important to have a game plan--and a budget," he points out. "Someone has pointed out that 'you can't put so much into preparation that you can't afford to NOT have the problem'!" he adds.

"I have finally reached the point of realization that I am going to do these things based on the situation as I see it developing and can no longer be talked out of it by any one else's best case scenario. It took me over a year to get to this point. I don't want to have to buy anything for at least 6 months after 1/1/2000, and maybe we will have to start before 2000, because I'm pretty convinced we will have bank runs. If we don't have panic before the bank runs, we will have panic at that time."

CONTINUED with Part Two: "A farm family prepares for the Year 2000"

For more information on agriculture and Y2K, see USDA Food Supply Working Group at http://www.aphis.usda.gov/oa/y2k/ ______________________________________________________________________ __

-- David (David@BankPacman.com), February 27, 1999.

And here's the second link . . .

THIS WEEK

Technology News from @gInnovator Online news files:

How are you preparing your family for the Year 2000...?

"R.U. Ready" is a pseudonym for a real farmer who manages a 3,000-acre grain operation. In this series from @gInnovator, he outlines his outlook and preparations for the Year 2000 problem. In part one, he spells out preparations for inputs, equipment, and financial needs. In part two (below), he explains personal and family preparations. Whether you agree or disagree with his outlook and approach, you need to address the same questions. Preparation prevents panic!

Previous installment: Case study: A farmer prepares for the Year 2000

Post comments or questions in our @g Computing or Precision @g or @ccess to Experts forums... ______________________________________________________________________ __

(Part II) Case study: A farm family prepares for Y2K

"Preparation prevents panic"

Part one of Case study: a farmer prepares for Year 2000 reviewed preparations for the business side of the "R.U. Ready" family. This is a pseudonym for an actual farm family with four school-age children. The family is part of a large diversified extended family enterprise with more than 4,000 acres spread out over two geographically diverse locations, one concentrated on 3,000 acres of crop production, the other on crops and livestock. Each main location lies within an hour on either side of a smaller major Midwestern city.

In part two of this series, we'll look at personal and family preparations being made by the R.U. Ready family.

"First, you need to do some research and understand the problem and its implications. Then you can determine how you should respond and develop a game plan,"stresses R.U. Ready. "And you need to develop a budget. There are many issues to consider, and it adds up fast."

You can run out of money before you've filled all your potential wants and needs. Look at things realistically and develop priorities. Making a flow chart of your expectations can help you determine how to prepare, he points out. (See bottom of page)

R.U. Ready says it took him over a year to settle on just what situation he would prepare for. While he still continues to research Y2K developments, he doesn't expect to depart from his basic objective. "We don't want to have to buy anything at all for living for at least the first six months of 2000. If major problems don't materialize, all we've done is store up a lot of supplies that we can then use up," he explains.

The 2000 part of the problem starts in January, he reminds, so the first priority is to get through the winter (which means cold weather and snow where the R.U. Ready family lives). Food, water and shelter will be the basic needs.

Some of the literature on his desk provides the following list of considerati o ns to get through the Y2K problem: community, debt-free place to live in country on hour from any major city, water supply (with purifying system), food (one year for each person), protection, money (at least 6-months cash needs in small bills, plus gold and silver coins).

Here's how the R.U. Ready family has prepared:

Community: The R.U. Ready family lives less than an hour from a smaller but major Midwestern city, and less than a quarter hour from their county seat, so they are preparing to be more self-sufficient. They know very few people in the area who are preparing like they are--but expect to discover more in coming months.

With a little preparation, most farmers should be able to get through the winter, he points out. "Hopefully, small towns will pull together and help their neighbors. They could still face hard challenges in terms of the infrastructure--erratic power, communications, and transportation, for example." This can impact food and water supplies. There are even bigger worries about bigger cities, he adds, and members of his extended family are moving out of urban areas this year.

Shelter: The R.U. Ready family remodeled their farmhouse last year, adding a storm cellar, water treatment system, a new LP furnace, an inverter system and bank of deep cycle batteries to store electricity generated by a diesel generator. He'll also have a ventless propane heater in the basement to keep pipes from freezing.

Food: "We've ordered long term food, storage items and other supplies. We have enough to last our family of four for a year, plus extra to give away or trade to other people." Much of that was ordered in February and was only recently delivered--due to increasing demand, he notes.

Food stocks include grains, beans, rice, dry milk, and oils. Most of this was delivered in sealed plastic 5-gallon pails. R.U. Ready plans to further supplement these stored supplies with produce from their garden next year. They al so have a hand-powered grinder mill. "We have neighbors with chickens and milk cows so hope to trade locally for fresh food items," he adds. "And we've looked into raising rabbits.

"Our philosophy on food supplies is not entirely year 2000 motivated, since we would like to live more independently anyway," says R.U. Ready. They're not holdovers from the 'hippie back to nature movement,' but they do want their family (with four school-age children) eating wholesome food, and they like the idea of being more self-sufficient, he adds.

Other supplies: "Basically we've looked at every aspect of our lives and determined what extra supplies we will need," he points out. They are changing many light bulbs to fluorescent, to use less energy. They'll add some 12-volt DC lighting circuits to utilize power directly from the batteries. They will have Aladdin-type oil lamps. They're considering replacing any appliances that aren't energy efficient, or converting to LP. They have a wringer-type washing machine.

"We're stocking up medical supplies, adequate clothing for family, non-hybrid garden seed, and so on," adds R.U. Ready. What about their computer system? "We bought a new computer earlier this year, and it is year-2000 compliant. We will make sure all of our software is also. And of course we're making hard copy printouts of all of our financial records and putting that and other important papers in the safe."

Protection: "I have bought a couple more guns, and quite a bit of ammunition. I expect to do more hunting. And I hope all this is more valuable for barter than for defense!" says R.U. Ready. "But I will defend my family from life-threatening intruders--Y2K or not."

When looking at the 'big picture' he also considers the possibilities of martial law in 1999--including the confiscation of fuel and other supplies. "I hope that doesn't happen. But if the government does continue to function through the Y2K situation, and actually increases i ts co ntrol of people's lives, I am fearful that we could lose so much freedom that it is incomprehensible to us now what is at stake," he relates. "But I also think that if the whole computer system does go down, along with the government infrastructure, it may give us an opportunity to rebuild with more freedom and Christian principles. Sadly, I think it will have to be done individually, as I don't see the organized church stepping up to the plate and filling this vacuum."

Money: "I have also already cashed in some IRA's to buy gold and silver, and have some cash on hand too. A lot depends on the impact to our economy--but long term these should be good investment moves anyway," he projects. "It's basically a strategy of risk management. My goal is that by March of 1999 to have basically all of our liquid assets (which is basically everything we own) into cash, gold, silver, ammo, food, and other supplies. Again, we don't want to have to buy anything for at least the first six months of 2000."

The big question: "People ask me 'how bad will it be in 2000?' and my answer is 'tell me how long the power will be off'," relates R.U. Ready. "Even if 'everything else' as far as computers and chips and systems are fixed, nothing will be 'fixed' if we have no power."

R.U. Ready continues to monitor reports about the state of the nation's power grid. And he's called and written to his own local power company. The response: 'we're doing everything we can but we recommend you have your own generator.' "That's not very reassuring," he notes, "and there's a lot of doubletalk in the official communications from many industries. If they really are ready, why can't they just tell us plainly?" he asks.

"So, we expect outages to be inevitable. Even if the electricity is not completely off, it will be erratic enough that we will need our own electrical generator. This is something the farm needs anyway--and anyone without a generator the past couple of winters in much of the Midwest was probably convinced to get one," he relates. With the weather cycle expected to turn more erratic due to increased sunspot activity, it just makes sense to be prepared in this way, he adds.

"Even our local bank is buying a generator--ostensibly just to be prepared for normal winter power outages. But unlike most banks, they've been working on the Year 2000 problem for the past 5 years. They claim they will be ready--but who knows about the rest of the global financial system?" asks R.U. Ready.

Non-material preparations: Some of the other literature on his desk advocates preparation along the lines of "God, groceries, guns, and gold." The R.U. Ready family readily acknowledges their "complete trust in God" regardless of Y2K concerns. But they also believe that trust should include their own preparations, based on how they understand the issues.

"Some might accuse people like me of contributing to the problem, but I don't see it that way. I'm simply taking steps to provide for my family and my business based on how I weigh the evidence," stresses R.U. Ready. "It's a matter of risk management."

"We are not hoarding. Hoarding means there is a limited supply, and that is not the case today. We are simply preparing and stockpiling for our needs," he explains. "If things do get in short supply, we won't be standing in lines. If there are runs on the banks or grocery stores--those are the people contributing to the runs! Very few people will take the steps we are taking, so we don't feel we will be causing any problems for others."

Will they share what we have? "We are Christians, so of course we will. But should I be forced by the unprepared to enter into a suicide pact with my family--by giving away all of our preparations?" asks R.U. Ready. "We prepared for potential problems and you did not. We will help you, but how can you depend on us simply because you did not plan and prepare?"

R.U. Ready looks at Y2K as a matter of risk management and stewardship. "We believe 'God owns it all' anyway--so even though we are taking steps to prepare for possible problems, there is a big trust factor," points out R.U. Ready. "We're not trusting in all the plans of mice and men. We are not masters of our own fate. But not to prepare would be foolish. And there's still plenty of things left for God to show us, right?"

Other concerns: Is this whole Y2K scenario a self-fulfilling prophecy? Will problems come because too many people panic--and end up causing more problems?

R.U. Ready believes that fundamental flaws in the foundations of modern society are surfacing as part of Year 2000 concerns. He's no Luddite (anti-technology fanatic), but he points to underlying issues such as fractional reserve banking, a debt-based economy, and blind acceptance of modern technologies. These contribute to problems related to a total reliance on improperly programmed computer systems. They may fail together, he says. And he points to widespread denial of such problems as further evidence. The problems can come about whether most people recognize them or not, he notes. Some will see them before others, and take action.

"If we stand in line asking for money or food then we would be contributing to the problem," he points out. "There's only one place to be in a bank run or food line and that is at the very front of the line--long before the line even forms. I can do much more for my community if I'm not standing in a line."

Were farmers that had money in the 1930s at fault because other people didn't see the problems coming? asks R.U. Ready. "Of course not. It could have gone the other way. They were taking a risk with their decisions and it turned out in their favor. They were in a position to help rebuild the economy and society."

The R.U. Ready family has studied the issues, drawn their flow charts, developed their priorities, made a budget, and mapped out their strategies for risk management. They believe good stewardship involves planning and preparing. That's how they approach their farming practices, their family life, and potential problems such as Y2K concerns. They work on the means, but trust in God to determine the end.

"Hopefully, with the way we are approaching this we won't have many downsides if the Year 2000 is not a big problem--and in fact, we sincerely hope that what we've prepared for doesn't happen," concludes R.U. Ready.

Time will tell if their risk management strategies are right or wrong. You may know in less than 500 days

(From Part 1) -- As part of his planning and communicating with other family members, R.U. Ready developed the accompanying flow chart which illustrates his approach to the problem:

First question: Is Y2K a problem? Options: No (but why are firms spending millions to correct a scam?) Yes (but will it be fixed in time) -If yes, then there's no problem to prepare for. -If not, then you can either do nothing or take action. This depends on your answer to this question: will the power go out? -If yes, then, can you survive without power? --if yes, then there's no problem to prepare for --if no, then you'll need food, heat, water, etc. If the answer to will the power go out is no, but there will be some problems, then you need to answer more questions regarding food, fuel, communications, farm vendors, packing plants and processors etc.

For more information on agriculture and Y2K, see USDA Food Supply Working Group at http://www.aphis.usda.gov/oa/y2k/ ______________________________________________________________________ __

-- David (David@BankPacman.com), February 27, 1999.

http://www.agriculture.com/technology/thisweek/y2k_1farmer.html

______________________________________________________________________ __

Case study: A farmer prepares for the Year 2000

"Preparation prevents panic"

@gInnovator recently interviewed a farm family hard at work preparing for problems related to Y2K issues. Here's the first installment of a multi-part series on their strategies for both their farm business and their personal lives. They've agreed to provide information for the articles, but wish to remain anonymous. We're going to refer to them as the "R.U. Ready" family.

Based on other research by @gInnovator, their approach seems similar to that of other farmers who anticipate problems associated with the Year 2000, so their experience may provide a representative example.

First, some background: Our farmer is part of a large diversified extended family enterprise with more than 4,000 acres spread out over two geographically diverse locations, one concentrated on crop production, the other on crops and livestock. R.U. Ready is not in a position to make all the decisions for the farm, but manages the largest portion of the crop acreage. Each main location lies about an hour on either side of a smaller major Midwestern city.

"First, you have to understand the problem," stresses R.U. Ready. "Then you have to develop a plan." As part of his planning and communicating with other family members, R.U. Ready developed the accompanying flow chart which illustrates his approach to the problem: First question: Is Y2K a problem? Options: No (but why are firms spending millions to correct a scam?) Yes (but will it be fixed in time) -If yes, then there's no problem to prepare for. -If not, then you can either do nothing or take action. This depends on your answer to this question: will the power go out? -If yes, then, can you survive without power? --if yes, then there's no problem to prepare for --if no, then you'll need food, heat, water, etc. If the answer to will the power go out is no, but there will be some problems, then you need to answer more questions regarding food, fuel, communications, farm vendors, packing plants and processors etc.

"We've done considerable reading and investigation on Y2K issues. As I see it, there is no way around supply interruptions for the Year 2000," says R.U. Ready. "Some will start before 2000 and others could occur for an extended time. So we want to be prepared for at least a year."

R.U. Ready Family members have discussed Y2K and have developed some preliminary strategies. For the farm business, these involve purchasing enough supplies in 1999 to carry them through the year 2000.

"Since booking two years of supplies amounts to a major financial decision for most farmers," notes R.U. Ready, "we will review these plans as 1999 rolls around. While our operation is financially solid, we still have to be careful with expenditures. Currently, the plan is to have fuel and chemicals on hand in 1999 to farm another year. We'll also have some of our seed needs on hand."

Fertilizer: "We plan to apply all our fertilizer needs in the fall of 1999," notes R.U. Ready. "We generally follow a fall program anyway. And our fields test high enough that we don't plan to apply any extra for succeeding years."

Chemicals: "We'll book a two-year supply of dry chemicals in the spring of 1999," he continues. "Liquid chemicals must be kept from freezing, so we are still weighing options and looking for dry alternatives." For example, they may buy more Accent in 1999, then trade it for Surpass in spring 2000 if they can. They've considered renting a climate-controlled storage facility, but worry about the risk of a large inventory outside their control should the power system go down or become erratic.

Seed: "Due to the storage concerns, we won't be buying much if any additional seed," explains R.U. Ready. But they are concerned about seed supplies. Seed generally becomes available in the spring before planting, notes R.U. Ready. "This could a big problem in 2000, particu l a r l y for prod ucts coming from the Southern Hemisphere. Right now, we don't plan on ordering shorter season corn, though we may experience planting delays in spring 2000.

"If we would decide to tie up the dollars in 1999 for seed in 2000, we can't store it properly. But it might be worth the risk of poor germination compared to not getting any seed at all in the spring of 2000." If necessary, they would plant soybean seed out of the bin. And they could also plant hybrid corn out of the bin, but yields will be cut in half.

So, in 1999 R.U. Ready will plant a little open pollinated corn, which he expects to produce 500 to 600 bushels of additional seed stock for 2000. This corn must be harvested in the ear, so he has set up a hand sheller. And he's reading up on how to grow and harvest open-pollinated seed.

Fuel: They plan to contract for a year's supply (12,000 gallons) of diesel fuel at the cropping location. That's enough to supply their 11-kilowatt diesel-powered electrical generator over the winter as well as fuel the farm equipment for the year 2000 crop. Their generator links to either an inverter board (to charge a bank of batteries) or to 220-volt equipment such as dryer fans or a welder.

"The real Y2K issue comes down to energy supplies," states R.U. Ready. "I think frequent and widespread outages is a best case scenario. We'll stretch our power supplies as necessary and as far as possible."

Equipment: They've contacted Cat, Case-Cummins and Deere regarding microprocessor chips in their newer tractor and truck engines. "We traced the systems to the fuel pumps, but the manufacturers assure us there are no date-sensitive aspects to these systems," he says. He hopes they're right.

And they'll have to make a decision soon about their combine. "We normally trade very four years--and we're due to trade after the 1999 harvest. Either way, in 1999 we'll be laying in a supply of extra parts, filters, oil and other supplies," exp la in s R. U. Ready. Or maybe sooner. "By the time YOU hear about shortages and problems, it will be too late to do much about it because everyone else will also be scrambling," he notes.

Grain storage: R.U. Ready typically harvests and stores their corn and soybeans on the farm. He often air dries a substantial portion over the winter. They harvest this portion at 20% moisture then air dry with fans to 15%. "We may not have electricity in the winter of 2000 to do that," he notes. "We've considered additional propane drying to completely dry the grain in the fall of 1999."

So far, the plan is to book enough propane for 1999 harvest, plus fill up all the existing propane tanks after harvest--as they expect shortages and transportation problems later. "We may get additional propane tanks, but they cost about $1 a gallon to buy so it adds up."

Their 1990 grain drying system does not have microprocessors. "So as long as we have power we expect to be operational," says R.U. Ready. If necessary, they could run 7.5 hp fans on each of a dozen bins, and work out a schedule for their other electrical needs from the diesel generator, as well as getting power to distant locations. A tractor- powered PTO generator is another option they may utilize. They'd get about 12 hours of operation per tankful, and have a 300-gallon fuel trailer they now use for hauling fuel to the field.

Livestock: The other major portion of the operation is a large diversified livestock-grain operation with hogs and cattle. "The main concern is to keep the livestock alive," notes R.U. Ready. "But the question is for how long. Most of the animals are raised on contract, so have set schedules of receipt and delivery. A lot will depend on how operational are the elevators and packing plants and transportation systems."

The R.U. Ready family stores about 1,000 acres of crop at the livestock operation location, along with silage and ear corn for their 2,000 head of cattle. They c oul d a lso fi ll a Harve store if necessary. They have a diesel generator at this location too, and will stock up on fuel. They plan to fill all their propane tanks in 1999.

"We should have little effect until it comes time to sell the livestock," points out R.U. Ready. "If things are really bad, we may be bartering for butchers--or worse, trying to protect the herd from bandits."

"We won't have these problems in our own operation, but we're also concerned about embedded chips and controllers in feed mills and environmental controls in confinement buildings." They also have questions about veterinary supplies, along with the rest of the infrastructure of the economy.

Markets: Currently all their bins are empty, but they'll be full after the 1998 harvest. "We hope to be able to get rid of our 1998 crop and have room for the 1999 crop. This could be a problem due to high carryover, low demand, and low prices," relates R.U. Ready. "Many farmers in our areas are building bins. We're seeing a horrible basis and export market. But livestock megafarms find it hard to shut off their contract schedule, so they'll have to continue feeding livestock."

"If we are able to move the 1998 crop and harvest the 1999 crop, we'll likely store most of it on the farm. We'll take our lumps in the market as they come in 1999 and 2000. However, we have serious questions about the infrastructure for both grain marketing and transportation. We can always eat the grain, or burn it (we'll have a biomass stove, too), and if we can't get any other seed we can plant it," he adds. Barter for neighboring livestock farmers might also be an option.

Leases: "We considered putting clauses in our cash leases so we could cancel them if we cannot obtain inputs to farm the ground," explains R.U. Ready. "However, we don't want to raise questions in the minds of our landlords. And this will be okay if any Y2K problems end up being short-term--less than a year. But there are questions about the status of the banking system for lease payments due in 2000. And farmers renting marginal or high dollar ground may decide to drop some farms to reduce their expenses."

Government: Will the government decide to enact martial law "to secure domestic order? Will this involve "appropriation" of supplies, such as fuel? Their fiscal year starts in October 1999, and as of now it appears that government services systems may not be fully operational. "So that is real possibility for the fall of 1999. But if the National Guard is going to do the farming, we'll all be in big trouble for sure!" he quips.

Finances: "For many farmers, the financial aspects of farming in the spring of 1999 will be a bigger issue than the year 2000 questions," projects R.U. Ready. "Not everyone will be in a position to farm in 2000, though we expect to be prepared."

R.U. Ready notes many landlords still want to hold rents steady, but farmers are looking at $50 or more less income per acre. He thinks many farmers will not want to fight it and will exit agriculture before 1999 even if they're not currently in financial trouble. Others will stay in--and look for bargains in the next couple of years. "If you expect a bad case scenario, you'll want to preserve your purchasing power and get better deals on the other side of 2000 than you can currently get on this side," he points out.

"If stockholders see their equity plummet with falling stock prices, farmers should R.U. Ready to pur chase farmland at depressed prices over the next couple of years," suggests R.U. Ready. "We may be surprised at how much pressure backs off land values if stocks do go down. If investor demand goes out of the market, land prices could go down fast."

"Guys that need money the most may not be able to get it in 1999 or 2000. Many financial statements don't look so good right now, considering $2.40 grain under loan that is now worth less than $2.00 per bushel--that's a big hit," he points out. "Guys that are in good financial shape can borrow money for the next year--and may do that to fund stockpiling. If nothing much happens with Y2K problems, the most they're out is another year's interest. Still, you could get hit with price changes on inputs, or stuck with something you're rather not use. But this will be a minor problem compared to the alternatives.

"Still, I expect farmers with dollars on hand to prepare their business for the coming uncertainty -- and spend more on personal preparation for their families," he concludes.

Personal preparations: "It's important to have a game plan--and a budget," he points out. "Someone has pointed out that 'you can't put so much into preparation that you can't afford to NOT have the problem'!" he adds.

"I have finally reached the point of realization that I am going to do these things based on the situation as I see it developing and can no longer be talked out of it by any one else's best case scenario. It took me over a year to get to this point. I don't want to have to buy anything for at least 6 months after 1/1/2000, and maybe we will have to start before 2000, because I'm pretty convinced we will have bank runs. If we don't have panic before the bank runs, we will have panic at that time."

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 27, 1999.

I see two of us jumped in at the same time to do a cut and paste!

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 27, 1999.

Thanks for reminding me about this! We gave it to my mother-in-law for help on her dairy farm planning when it first came out. It's superb. I'm going to print a bunch out and give to other farmers nearby. Many of them are AGI (almost getting it) and this may do the trick.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 27, 1999.

Looks like you guys have this under control! <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), February 28, 1999.