From documents on a Department of Energy website, the following outlines the sources of crude oil in the U.S.:

41% domestic production
18% imported from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela
18% imported from Canada and Mexico
23% imported from a host of other countries overseas

Note that a total of 59% is imported. Saudi Arabia and Venezuala account for 30% of that 59%, which 18% of the total supply.

If Y2K causes major shipping/port problems, then 41% (18%+23%) of the U.S crude oil supply (the amount imported from overseas) could be cut off.

A bigger question might be how much of the crude oil that we can get in Jan 2000 will we have the capability to refine?

How severely might this affect the economy?

Anyone want to check my numbers?

-- Codejockey (codejockey@geek.com), February 25, 1999

Answers

CJ, A couple of months ago I saw some figures that we imported 17% of our petroleum from Venezuela. This was in conjunction with a news item that 3 of Venezuela's 5 refineries would be shut down because of compliance problems. How these figures fit in with your crude oil numbers, I don't know. It may just be differences bewteen crude imports and refined imports and total imports.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 25, 1999.

Puddintame,

According to the DoE's Net Imports of Petroleum in the U.S. by Country, the crude oil numbers are the only ones that are significant.

-- Codejockey (codejockey@geek.com), February 25, 1999.

There is a very intersting article at PNGs site called relating to oil production. I am in a hurry and no time for a link. The article by itself will scare you. I don't need numbers of imports if what PNG says is actually true. It sounds like the oil ani't gonna be flowing anyhow.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), February 25, 1999.

My feeling is that the refineries are going to have problems, so they won't miss the oil. The public will miss it, but not the refineries. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), February 25, 1999.

If shipping stopped (very unlikely, slowdowns perhaps, but stopped? No compliant oil tanker anywhere can find a compliant port?) the price of crude oil would rise. Caps would come off of thousands of wells that are not being pumped right now because the pumping costs more than the profit (show you several in KY anytime you want to pay for the trip. I can promise some good fishing while you are there.). Canada and Mexico are in surface transport range, and would not have anyone else to sell to (assuming shipping stopped). Also, as gas prices go up, demand goes down. At some point demand and cost and supply will all meet. Same thing is true of the refineries. BTW - if you check it out you will find out that Shell, among others, is selling Y2K remediation services to oil companies. Posted a link to that a while back. If Shell is selling remediation services, it kind of indicates they feel pretty confident of finishing up in time.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 25, 1999.

Paul,

If only the oil industry had been able to respond as quickly in 1973- 74. Quicker response might have prevented the U.S. recession that lasted from late 1973 to early 1975.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 25, 1999.

I sure hate to drop another turd in the punch bowl here, but:

I've heard the number bandied about (and I think it's accurate *enough* for my point here) that 25% of the oil used in the USA comes from the Alyeska pipeline. I have *very* reliable info that the pipeline itself is in pretty good shape. But remember that 99.999% of that oil is brought to the "lower 48" by ships. (A tad is used in Alaska)

Les see 41% - 25% (as he takes boots off) is ...err..16%.

-- Greybear

- Got an Axe?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), February 25, 1999.

Paul Davis -

Are you the PD on x191?

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), February 25, 1999.

Here's a quote from an article on the history of oil prices:

http://wtrg.com/prices.htm

[snip]

Yom Kippur War - Arab Oil Embargo In 1972 the price of crude oil was about $3.00 and by the end of 1974 the price of oil had quadrupled to $12.00. The Yom Kippur War started with an attack on Israel by Syria and Egypt on October 5, 1973. The United States and many countries in the western world showed strong support for Israel. As a result of this support Arab exporting nations imposed an embargo on the nations supporting Israel. Arab nations curtailed production by 5 million barrels per day (MMBPD) about 1 MMBPD was made up by increased production on other countries. The net loss of 4 MMBPD extended through March of 1974 and represented 7 percent of the free-world production.

If there was any doubt that the ability to control crude oil prices had passed from the United States to OPEC it was removed during the Arab Oil Embargo. The extreme sensitivity of prices to supply shortages became all too apparent. Prices increased 400 percent in six short months

[snip]

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 25, 1999.

According to:

ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov /pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_monthly/curr ent/txt/table_01.txt

Alaska field production amounts to about 8% of total supply to the U.S., whereas the lower 48 produces 33%.

It's as always possible I'm not reading it correctly.

-- Codejockey (codejockey@geek.com), February 25, 1999.

codejockey: you're right. I misspoke. I was trying to say 25% of the fuel *produced* in USA. But the current numbers it's about 19%. When I worked there in '91-93 the production numbers were up around 1.5 MMBD. Man, is it ever hard to keep up. thanks for the link.

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), February 25, 1999.

I don't know the figures, but my husband worked on the pipeline in AK for 8 years and he says most of that oil is sold to Japan.

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), February 25, 1999.

Thinking about the late 70's - early 80's and Texas, Okla, CO,& LA were very prosperous places because of the oil shortage. Looking at it historically, the oil industry has always been in a boom/bust cycle and they're due for another boom. In Okla & Texas during late 70's-early 80's were an anomaly economically with the rest of the country. If a large part of TX & some of Okla is not intrisically tied with the national grid and given that a large part of domestic production is from this region, it might be reasonable to assume a relative prosperous future for this region depending on how bad Y2K becomes.

Hmmm, got any mineral rights?

-- Texan (praying@ranch.com), February 25, 1999.

Last time there was talk of uncapping economically inefficient oil wells, there was also talk about how all the pipes, pumps, and other necessary widgets had rusted all to hell. Many of those wells couldn't be made to produce; new wells would have had to be drilled. In many cases, the owners didn't have/couldn't get the money.

-- Former Awl Patch Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 25, 1999.

Old Git,

You're referring to stripper wells, no doubt. But remember money was flowing into all kinds of exploration - oil and gas...hence the deep gas wells in the Andarko Basin...remember Big Bertha? - 40k foot deep gas well. Oooo, dogies, that's some bucks to drill that deep!

This has always been a boom/bust cycle so I suspect that it's not the first nor the last time oil field equipment rusted and had to be replaced. The money will pour in again to fix whatever obstacles lie in the way of production. The problem isn't money...it's finding new domestic reserves at less than 40k' underground. Bunkie and company lost a bundle (including his shirt) in Gulf of Mexico search for elusive domestic reserves.

But beyond that, estimated world oil reserves have a very short finite life. I don't remember the number of years....30 or 50 yrs.

Got any alternate energy sources?

-- Texan (praying@ranch.com), February 25, 1999.