This story ran in hundreds of papers across America today. I'm sure you all have already read it: http://www.wichitaeagle.com/technology/y2k/docs/y2k0224_txt.htm

Some of the statements in the piece sounded rather gloomy: "Make no mistake, this problem will affect us all individually and collectively in very profound ways.... ... In some cases, lives could even be at stake.".... Sounds kind of doomy, too.

"Those who suggest that it will be nothing more than a "bump in the road" are simply misinformed"

More cheerful: "The committee has no data to suggest that the U.S. will experience nationwide social or economic collapse.." (Is that really optimistic?? Compared to what? How close to collapse can one come and still maintain a decent lifestyle.)

"one of the most serious and potentially devastating events this nation has ever encountered--the Year 2000 computer program..."

"devastating" sounds "gloomy" to me, maybe even "doomy".

Okay, to my question: Under "utilities" in the piece it says that local & regional blackouts are "likely," but a "Prolonged, nationwide blackout" is not.

Soooo, if, as some have explained here, there are no problems with the embedded chips, and fixing the problem is no problem and there are no utilities that can't meet the deadline, what will cause these local and regional blackouts?

-- Anonymous, February 24, 1999

Answers

LindaO:

This is the conundrum I have been personally dealing with for months. Today I had the opportunity to further my preparations. People who post here are not motivated by financial gain and do so to make a contribution. I thank Rick Cowles for making this forum happen. Y2K is a math problem (I love math) and the ultimate, absolute answer will be known in a few short months. Then and only then will we be able to discern the truth. In the mean time, I am following the advice given here and other places of Y2K opinion, and that is to do your own research and make your preparations based on your own conclusions. ==================================================================

No SPAM Please!

-- Anonymous, February 24, 1999

LindaO, according this Senate report, if local and regional blackouts are likely, then the only reason for some communities and individuals not to prepare for such would be if the government indicates *which* regions and localities are likely to experience these blackouts and which won't. In the absence of knowing if your local area or region will be affected or not, being prepared is the only safe option I can see. Somehow I can't see NERC ever putting out a press release saying, "If you live in such and such a town, or area, then your power will likely go out," can you?

-- Anonymous, February 24, 1999

Linda,

When I say that I have tested with no problems, and that what I report is accurately reflected in NERC, I am greeted with a skepticism - almost outright distrust.

Speakers who say "local and regional blackouts are 'likely' but a 'Prolonged, nationwide blackout' is not" are not subjected to the same skepticism. Get whoever made that quote to answer your question "what will cause these local and regional blackouts?" and I will join your ranks.

-- Anonymous, February 24, 1999

It was made by the special Senate committee on Y2K. Probably hard to get to them for an answer.

-- Anonymous, February 24, 1999

LindaO, I've been "lurking" this forum for some time. Mostly just trying to make sense of all this. It's obvious to me that a lot of very smart people stand on both sides of the issue. The people working this problem are dedicated, hardworking, and will remain so untill the very end. No matter the outcome, we owe them our thanks. I've chosen to speak up at this time for two reasons. First, I suspect that this Senate report may throw Y2K to the forefront of the mainstream media. I truly fear the impact that could have on the work being done. Second, this is the first time that I have seen so much on the confusion we "non experts" are feeling. No matter how hard we look for that proof we need to settle our questions, all we find is shadows. David Eddy told me in an e-mail today, "it all comes down to subjective gut feel". (I hope he'll forgive me sharing that) The way I see it, if he has to rely on his gut, the rest of us just have to do the same. The answer we all seek will arrive all too soon.

-- Anonymous, February 25, 1999

What we need the utilities to say that their plants, distributions and 5000+ suppliers are all compliant and they guarentee that there will be be no outages or few outages or whatever. My company, Alternate Energy, can make that assurance about the products we sell. I know the power and heat will stay on at my house for more than 3 years. We have had a combined solar/wind/ microcogeneration plant since 1991.

I am optimistic about the future after y2k. Advances in solar panels, fuel cells, microturbines, etc. will mean more and more people can be affordably independent.

There are ways to prepare for outages from various causes as well as save money after 2000.

-- Anonymous, February 25, 1999

Steve King said: "Y2K is a math problem..."

To add to this: At its core, true - after all, we are faced with a dilemma based on numbers and statistics. However, Y2K is proving to be much more than a simple math problem. What we are seeing is that this problem is turning out to be one of close inter-connectivity of economies, overdependence on technology, and perhaps most importantly, arrogance.

As far as guarantees: A guarantee doesn't state that the item or service won't break down, but that it will be repaired if it does. I think all utilities will strive to repair outages if they can, but no utility will guarantee that power will definitely stay on. They can't make that guarantee now (given weather, accidents, etc.), why would they do it for an unprecented event such as Y2K? Sometimes the best and most honest response you can give is: I don't know.

-- Anonymous, February 25, 1999

How about oil shortages?

Slow down deliveries from the Mideast, Nigeria, Venezuela -- elsewhere it was reported that the railroads are the biggest single user of diesel fuel in this nation. Trains slow down --> coal-dependent utilities then have the same problem as the oil-fired utilities. In another thread (A Taste of Rolling Blackouts), I described the (1996?) rolling blackouts in the DC area owing to ice floes in the Potomac, which slowed oil tankers delivering to Pepco (as I recall).

Maybe cl's experience is universal, and utilities won't have any internal difficulties. Yet they cannot run without power.

I say, install giant treadmills, and all of us who are out of shape, and out of work because our own businesses went under, can go start running in a new kind of "New Deal" labor program. Clean, renewable, cheap (consider the savings in health care as all the runners get fit) -- what could be better?

-- Anonymous, February 26, 1999