THIS IS A MUST READ>>>DO NOT LET THIS ONE PASS YOU BY!!greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Hey Everyone.... this is a must read...soory do not know how to hot link it...if some one does plese do it!
you do not want to miss this one...
READ IT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
-- READ THIS!! (email@example.com), February 24, 1999
WOW!!!!!THAT"S ALL I CAN SAY!!!!
This is about the Washington Post article Plus some. I think the panic may start...and soon!
-- PMM (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 24, 1999.
That was in this morning's local paper.
But hey, don't worry. I heard that Bill Gates was gonna take care of the whole thing. (Meanwhile, maybe I'll get more rice....)
-- they still (email@example.com), February 24, 1999.
yep, between this and the Wash. Post story, the pollyannas are now between a rock and a hard place.
-- Arlin H. Adams (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 24, 1999.
-- Sysman (email@example.com), February 24, 1999.
Do you guys not even bother to read the things you post?
--------------------------------------------------------------------- ``The committee has no data to suggest that the United States will experience nation-wide social or economic collapse,'' the Senate co- chairmen wrote, ``but we believe that disruptions will occur that in some cases will be significant. The international situation will be more disturbing. Those who suggest that it will be nothing more than a 'bump in the road' are simply misinformed.'' ---------------------------------------------------------------------
Sounds like a three to five to me!
--------------------------------------------------------------------- ``Even if disruptions turn out to be more serious than most analysts expect, they will most likely show up primarily as inconveniences and losses in certain sectors. It is less likely that they will ... lead to a recession. ... However, it would be unwise to state categorically that a Y2K recession is not in the cards,'' the CEA report said. ---------------------------------------------------------------------
And I have pointed out numerous times that a recession may or may not happen as a result of Y2K. Too many factors to make it anything like a sure thing.
And I could post other snips, but you get the point. They aren't yelling about TEOTWAWKI by any means! Crap, I have been saying for at least three months that most of the country would have power, shortages would be short and local. That is also in the report. Now either you are not being very consistent, or you are just going to have to call us all pollyannas. I don't much care, but this is not calling for TEOTW by any means.
-- Paul Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 24, 1999.
Just how stupid would it be for the papers to be calling for the end of the world if they even did in fact know it was coming? You say yourself how dumb people make themselves look when they "scream TEOTWAWKI". No one here does that as far as I can tell. You have to admit when the papers come out with these kinds of predictions ten months before 1/1/00 it shows a certain panic. The fact is the light is now shining on more and more parts of the picture and the picture is looking ever worse. Maybe when all is said and done the picture won't be so bad but in six months if the papers have gotten to the point where they'll admit to a 5-7 on the Yourdon sacle then your going to have to shut up pretty quick.
Like you said no one knows how things will turn out in the long run after 1/1/00. How come you act like you got this whole thing pinned down already?? You firmly assert that what you've been saying all along is a 3-5 and now you have the documentation of agreement of the CEA report to prove it.
Well Paul, now prove to me that things one escalate another step??? Prove to all of us that what you've been saying is the final word and bottom line.
-- (Lancelot @ tavern link.com), February 24, 1999.
For the record, anything in breaking news at Silicon Valleys San Jose Mercury News, is usually from the AP wire and often does NOT end up in the print version.
Also, Paul. Im still at a 5 and wont be revising it -- up or down -- until we get closer to 2K day. Its too early to call. And does not look good, at the moment.
In terms of preparing people and communities. A lot can be done in the next six months.
*Shift DOES Happen*
Got a mountain bike?
Sysman, the link disappears fast.
Posted at 4:32 p.m. PST Tuesday, February 23, 1999
Senate report: Y2K disruptions almost certain
Knight Ridder News Service
WASHINGTON -- After almost a year of systematic investigation, a special Senate committee warns in a report to be released within days that all segments of the U.S. economy -- from hospitals to electric power plants -- remain ``at risk'' from the year 2000 computer problem that looms less than one year away.
The sober study -- a draft was obtained by Knight Ridder Newspapers -- concludes that while both government and business have worked hard to correct the Y2K problem, their efforts began late, remain insufficient and consequently some incalculable level of economic disruption is inevitable.
``Make no mistake,'' the Senate panel's co-chairmen warn in a letter to their colleagues at the report's front, ``this problem will affect us all individually and collectively in very profound ways. ... It will indeed impact individual businesses and the global economy. In some cases, lives could even be at stake.''
The authors of the carefully low-key report take care to avoid either undue alarm or unfounded optimism. For example, they conclude that while local electricity blackouts are likely, a national power breakdown is not.
The study notes that most small to midsize businesses have yet to make Y2K repairs. And many of America's trade partners are far behind in taking corrective steps, posing risks of worldwide ripple effects.
Banks and other financial-service firms are well-prepared, the Senate panel finds. Social Security checks should not face interruption. And air-traffic control should be able to avoid major disruptions to air travel, although some ``flight rationing'' may be necessary.
``The committee has no data to suggest that the United States will experience nation-wide social or economic collapse,'' the Senate co- chairmen wrote, ``but we believe that disruptions will occur that in some cases will be significant. The international situation will be more disturbing. Those who suggest that it will be nothing more than a 'bump in the road' are simply misinformed.''
Chairman Robert F. Bennett, R-Utah, and Vice Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., led their special Senate select committee through nine hearings since last April examining the state of Y2K preparedness in seven critical U.S. industries.
They intend to trumpet their findings in Senate floor speeches, possibly as soon as Thursday, in an effort to rouse awareness to what they call ``one of the most serious and potentially devastating events this nation has ever encountered -- the Year 2000 computer program. ... It deserves our top priority.''
The Y2K problem, also known as ``the Millennium Bug,'' stems from a defect in millions of computer programs used worldwide. To save space, early programmers recorded annual dates by using only two digits; 1999, for example, is programmed only as ``99.'' The first two digits are assumed to be ``19.''
Unless those programs are fixed, when the century changes next Jan. 1, computers may misread their codes as referring to the year 1900 rather than 2000. This could cause them to produce erroneous information, corrupt linking systems or even shut down.
President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers put this into perspective in its annual report, released earlier this month:
``Although it sounds to many at first like a trivial matter, of interest only to computer engineers and programmers, in fact the Y2K problem is potentially extremely serious, given the central role that computer technology has taken in our lives.''
Edward Yardeni, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, leads several Wall Street economists in warning that Y2K disruptions are likely to cause a global recession next year, but Clinton's CEA report said ``such forecasts seem excessively dire.
``Even if disruptions turn out to be more serious than most analysts expect, they will most likely show up primarily as inconveniences and losses in certain sectors. It is less likely that they will ... lead to a recession. ... However, it would be unwise to state categorically that a Y2K recession is not in the cards,'' the CEA report said.
The Senate panel's study aims to fill a gap in public knowledge left by what it terms inadequate news-media discussion to date.
``Reports in even the most reputable news sources fall prey to polarization -- either over-emphasizing the handful of Y2K survivalists or downplaying the event as a hoax designed to sell information technology equipment,'' notes the first paragraph of the executive summary.
The public is hungry for solid information about the Y2K threat, according to a recent survey by the Media Studies Center, a New York- based research institute. While 82 percent said they expect problems to be minor, 64 percent said it is ``very important'' to them for news media to publicize how it might affect medical facilities, emergency services, banks and the military, for example.
Americans should be prepared, the Senate report says.
``Consumers are urged to keep copies of financial statements. ... Stockpiling a small amount of extra food and water in the event of temporary shortages may also be advisable,'' although extremes should be avoided, the report says.
Here is how the Senate panel sees Y2K affecting various sectors of the U.S. economy:
UTILITIES. Only about 50 percent of electric utilities had repaired Y2K systems as of December. ``Of greatest concern are about 1,000 small, rural electric utilities.'' Local and regional blackouts are ``likely,'' but a ``prolonged, nationwide blackout'' is not.
HEALTH CARE. Some 64 percent of hospitals have no plans to test their Y2K fixes before the crunch date. Some 90 percent of doctors' offices are unaware of how exposed they are to Y2K problems. Federal payment systems for Medicare and other health-insurance programs are behind schedule for repair. ``The health care industry is one of the worst- prepared for Y2K and carries a significant potential for harm.''
TELECOMMUNICATIONS. Some 95 percent of telephone systems are expected to be ready. No reliable data exists on readiness to test data networks, cellular or satellite communications systems, or 1,400 regional carriers.
TRANSPORTATION. ``On average, the nation's 670 domestic airports started Y2K compliance too late,'' the report states. The Federal Aviation Administration has ``made great strides'' but ``it still has a way to go. ... Planes will not fall out of the sky, but flight rationing to some areas and countries is possible.'' Aviation problems will be ``much worse'' abroad.
FINANCE. Banks and automated tellers are expected to function and to have enough cash. The Federal Reserve intends to expand available currency by one-third, to about $200 billion, to cover withdrawals ``and has other contingency arrangements available if needed,'' Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
GOVERNMENT. Federal agencies vary widely in preparedness; among the least prepared is the Department of Defense. (A House panel monitoring federal Y2K efforts issued an overall grade of C+ on Tuesday. Defense reported that only 72 percent of its ``mission-critical systems'' are ready; Transportation, only 53 percent.
John Koskinen, chairman of President Clinton's Y2K Council, told a computer-industry forum last week that he is confident federal agencies will be ready in time. The Senate report concludes that not all ``mission-critical'' federal systems will be ready, ``but wholesale failures'' of federal services ``will not occur.''
However, state and local governments vary widely in preparations, the Senate panel said, noting its ``greatest concern is the ability of local communities to provide 911 emergency services.''
BUSINESS. Heavily regulated fields such as banking, insurance and finance ``are furthest ahead,'' but ``health care, oil, education, agriculture, farming, food processing and the construction industry are lagging behind,'' the report said. Any failure of a critical system is likely to cost up to $3.5 million to repair and to take three to 15 days.
INTERNATIONAL. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, which together supply 30 percent of U.S. oil imports, are both 12 to 18 months behind U.S. Y2K repair efforts, exemplifying how problems abroad might have an impact here. Infection of repaired U.S. computer systems from links to unfixed foreign ones is also worrisome.
Perhaps equally worrisome is how impossible it is to measure the problem in advance. ``It is unfortunate how little we still know about the scope and the severity of the Y2K problem for the U.S. and for the world,'' the Senate report observes.
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), February 24, 1999.
I personally think it is highly significant for the Senate to state, and for the national press to print...
"The committee has no data to suggest that the United States will experience nation-wide social or economic collapse," the Senate co- chairmen wrote, "but we believe that disruptions will occur that in some cases will be significant. The international situation will be more disturbing. Those who suggest that it will be nothing more than a 'bump in the road' are simply misinformed."
"Even if disruptions turn out to be more serious than most analysts expect, they will most likely show up primarily as inconveniences and losses in certain sectors. It is less likely that they will ... lead to a recession ... However, it would be unwise to state categorically that a Y2K recession is not in the cards," the CEA report said.
...in February of 1999.
First of all, those two statements practically contradict each other. Of course, no-one has "data" to suggest...bla, bla, bla. But, I wonder - how can "significant disruptions" and a "disturbing international situation" only "show up primarily as inconveniences"? I simply do not understand the logic of this in a world that is already experiencing major economic problems.
.Gov and Media statements in general have been based on some bizzare view of reality, and for the statements above to be made, is indeed a change. It is inconceivable to me, I guess because of the way that I view the world, whatever that is, that people who have been spending time around this issue can still believe that we are not in for a major civilization-altering set of events in the next couple of years.
But, that;s just me...(and how many others?)
-- pshannon (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 24, 1999.
Yeah, but----It said planes won't fall from the sky, so we are ok.
-- Roberta Blackard (email@example.com), February 24, 1999.
-- Homer Simpson (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 24, 1999.
Hey Paul, were you really expecting the Senate to say:
"Failures in oil and gas production coupled by a continuing worldwide economic collapse will likely trigger the worst depression in this country's history. The stock market bubble will finally be broken by real and imagined concerns over Y2K. Bank runs are a very real problem and the normal operation of the world financial system post y2k is in serious jeopardy. The fragile food production system is expected to suffer severe disruptions and starvation is a possible result. Desperation of the third world countries will probably cause increased terrorism and technological problems in the Mid and Far East may provoke nuclear, biological or chemical warfare. If emergency measures are not taken immediately, Washington DC will be engulfed in riots and large cities like New York and Chicago are going to experience catastrophic problems that will result in many deaths."
or do you now realize they're saving that for their Fall '99 report?
-- a (email@example.com), February 24, 1999.
Paul- Are you a pollyana? What do you believe is the best move for you and your family at this point in time? That is how I will judge you, and your presentation of the facts. Your reflection and observation on this story is quite accurate. According to Pravda, it is a 3 to a 5. Since when has the .gov told the truth to us though in the last 30 years? This is a non-flame, only an observation. Propoganda is propoganda. No matter who says it, who issues it, nor the reasons why. If you personally believe it is a 3-5, please recite your remediation or corporate credentials and I might fall in line with your line of thinking. I have challenged AES and Maria to de-troll themselves, but to no avail. Facts are facts. 99% of all software projects are usually 25-30% late (past target date). 50% of all software projects require addtional maintenance and repair 180 days after final testing and implementation. Thus my argument that Y2K will be a major event until the summer of 2000. By that time the economies of the world will be at a crawl. Please counter my arguments so my cat can sleep better tonight, as I shall sleep fine, I am prepared.
"...when they have no pretense of authority left, no remnant of law, no trace of morality, no hope, no food and no way to obtain it, when their systems crash and they have no clue--then we'll come back to rebuild the world."
-- John Galt (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 24, 1999.
For those of you who expect a sudden "panic" by the citizens of this country because of the Y2K report coming out of the Senate, please reread Paul Davis' post again. Most US citizens are just as ardently DWGI as Paul is.
Until a major fubar occurs in some high profile business or government agency that cannot be hidden and is devastating, the Paulyanna's of this nation will continue to have their head firmly entrenched in the sand.
Get used to it, and quit wasting your time wishing things were otherwise.
-- Nabi Davidson (email@example.com), February 24, 1999.
I don't know how they can NOT expect recession at least when they admit that Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are 12-18 months behind (ie, likely haven't started remediation), and that they provide 30% of the US's oil.
I think that this report dares not say worse than it does. There are still many who will blame the message bearers for causing panic, not the message.
-- Tricia the Canuck (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 25, 1999.
John Galt quoted "...when they have no pretense of authority left, no remnant of law, no trace of morality, no hope, no food and no way to obtain it, when their systems crash and they have no clue-- then we'll come back to rebuild the world."
But John, in what does "rebuilding the world" consist, if not establishing: authority, law, morality, hope, food, and systems ? In short, what we have now.
Or you are going to do it "right" next time, you've found a way to guarantee human infallibility ?
-- Blue Himalayan (email@example.com), February 25, 1999.