Some of you may already have me written off as a troll. Today I'm not trying to go into that but instead I wanted to you what you all may consider relevant. My father who works at a large railways company in the south was moved from one position in the company to Y2K remediation and along with him his whole team. It was totally unexpected however it is obviously temporary and he will continue to work on the other project concurrently with Y2K coding. It's not alarming or anything but it shows a recent inflation in numbers of people and interest that was up until now pretty minimal to say the least. Sort of took my father off guard since he was doing some pretty extensive work in other areas that had already been prioritized.

Personally I don't think technology or modern man is at risk from a doomsday scenario, or even from global depression. Recession might be more favorable but I guess we can wait to see which way the dominos fall. I posted this little tidbit because it sort of jived with what some people are saying and regardless of my own opinion it did seem relevant. Maybe it's nothing but maybe it is not. I'm not doing any gung ho preparing no matter what flaming posters say. Aside from an asteroid the size of long island killing us all off there won't be much that will stop the forward movement of humanity.

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 22, 1999

Answers

Thanks for the info. As a very avid historian/hobbyist, I would like to state that while the overall progression of mankind has been toward a more technological culture, this is not and never has been a straight upwords line or curve.

It has always moved in fits and starts, with frequent backslidings. We have seen a very strong surge in the last 200 or so years, but I personally am not arrogant enough to believe that our civilization, finally, has solved the problem. We have not, in my opinion, developed the final answer to human stability. Perhaps some of you think we have. So too did the Romans, the Greeks, the Persians, the Ming, the Mongols, the Aztecs, the Maya, the Inca, the Iroquois. All of us expect that with which we are familiar to continue.

Over the long term, it never has. I doubt that it ever will in the future.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), February 22, 1999.

AES, my experience has been that this forum does not write off people who make relevant contributions, no matter what their perspective. It may just take time to build credibility. You came on the forum like gangbusters, and people called you on your attitude. I seem to remember the first post I read of yours was something like "There's a lot of hysteria, and I'm going to dispell it..."

You may not think we are headed into a global economic meltdown, or whatever, and that's cool. I certainly hope you're right. However, you have NEVER, not once, provided any kind of credible reasons for why you believe this to be so. A lot of regulars here dig every day and collect all those little tidbits of news and info that make it clear to some us that we are indeed headed into trouble. We base our opinions on research and facts. I don't recall you taking a similar approach.

It is certainly your right to prepare or not to protect yourself from potential problems. However, please understand that many people here feel that it is foolish and selfish for people not to make some level of preparations. You will not get much sympathy on this board.

I hope your father does good work and every little bit helps. You, however, really do seem to have absolutely no idea whatsoever how the world works...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 22, 1999.

"You may not think we are headed into a global economic meltdown, or whatever, and that's cool. I certainly hope you're right. However, you have NEVER, not once, provided any kind of credible reasons for why you believe this to be so. A lot of regulars here dig every day and collect all those little tidbits of news and info that make it clear to some us that we are indeed headed into trouble. We base our opinions on research and facts. I don't recall you taking a similar approach. "

Actually, I don't HAVE to prove the end of the world ISN'T coming. It's your so called job to prove that it in fact IS going to end. That is how it works. I can give you a billion reasons why the world will be around in year. If this being a court of law, and You being the prosecution have to come up with some reasonable evidence that it won't. After all you have taken the side of the prosecution whether you like it or not. And Occams Razor proves that all things being equal, the simplest answer is usually the right one. The simple answer here is that there MIGHT be some "possible disruptions". I want to see your "facts" that proves without a reasonable doubt your theory of these questionable scenarios have any validity at all.

Before you accuse me of not knowing how the worlds works... whatsoever..., take a look at yourself.

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 22, 1999.

I don't have to PROVE anything either. We're not in a court of law. This is real life. There are possible life and death issues at stake here. I don't give a damn about Occam's Razor or simple answers. I care about living a long and reasonably healthy life, and getting through the bad times THAT I SEE AS BEING INEVITABLE. I personally don't give a damn if you starve or freeze to death. (Actually, that's not true, but you're so blind...)

So look, you can intellectualize your defensiveness all you want. It won't affect me and what I see in the world. You can play word games all you want. I don't care. I've never said anything about the "End of the World." Those are your words. The world does not give a damn about humanity. It's up to humanity to take care of itself. I'm going to do what I can to ensure that my little piece of humanity is safe from the coming storm. Storms happen all the time, afterall. You do what you want...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 22, 1999.

Once again, this has turned into a pissing contest. It started out with a promising tone. AES, if this board is used as intended- a place to gather and exchange information relevant to the subject at hand- then no one will write anyone off as a troll or anything else. I can only speak for myself...please help me understand why everything is going to be OK next year. All the info I see tells me I had better prepare for some trouble down the road. The presentation of the material is so important. If you start by attacking someone because their ideas are different than yours, then you're not going to get many people to listen or you're going to get a label ie: Troll. Sorry, I'm not very eloquent but my point is that I'll gladly listen to what you have to say if you relay your message with an open mind and a positive, sharing attitude.

-- (rick@ina.com), February 22, 1999.

AES2010,

Y2K remediation work at railroads is more involved than most people might think. Here's a link to the "Year 2000 Project Status" of Union Pacific plus a snip from it:

http://www.uprr.com/y2k/2kprojct.shtml

[snip] Year 2000 Project Status Year 2000 Readiness Disclosure (Last edited February 9, 1999)

Overview The Year 2000 compliance project ("Y2K") at Union Pacific Railroad Company ("Union Pacific") includes software (internally developed and purchased), hardware and embedded chips inside equipment and machinery. Union Pacific's enterprise-wide project encompasses computer systems and equipment in two data centers and a telecommunications network with thousands of personal computers, 3270 terminals, radios, telephones connected with land lines, microwave, fiber optics, and satellite links for data and voice communications spread over 23 states. Equipment containing embedded computer chips includes locomotives, automated train switching systems, computer aided train dispatching systems, signaling systems, computerized fueling stations, weigh-in-motion scales, cranes, lifts, PBX systems, elevators, and computerized monitoring systems throughout Union Pacific. In addition to the equipment described above, Union Pacific is dependent on 72 million lines of code in mainframe systems, over 100 newer client/server applications with 8 million lines of code, and millions of daily EDI transactions with customers, vendors and other railroads plus services from hundreds of service providers. Fortunately, work began early on Union Pacific's Y2K project by starting the research in 1994 and completing an impact analysis of its mainframe COBOL systems in 1995. The Y2K project began in earnest in 1996 and has been a high priority ever since. [snip]

About preparing for Y2k...if you decided to buy car insurance, how would you feel if I said it's your job to prove that in fact you would have an accident in the next 12 months? What if I said I want to see your facts that prove without reasonable doubt your theory of a car accident scenario has any validity at all?

The chances of the end of the world AS I'VE KNOWN IT due to Y2K are greater than 0%, in my opinion, so I'm preparing. If Y2K is a bump in the road, then my grocery bill will be a lot smaller next year. To prepare for Y2K is prudent to me, because I'm looking out for the welfare of family members as well as my own welfare.

Best of luck to your dad on his new project.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

ALERT ! ALERT ! AESs post is very UNtroll-like.

I for one am glad to see AES posting non-polemic news. Or at least polemic views in a non-offensive manner. AES, you don't have to agree with us, obviously. This new turn of events is refreshing.

Like pshannon, I to think this forum is just like the real world. I for one am ready to fight for you right to express your opinion. As you have done here, expressing you opinion in a signal manner rather than a noise manner is great.

I am as far "gone" as anyone around here in my opinions of what the future holds, but, I am always ready to listen to cogent, well expressed opinions of others.

I worries me a tad when I hear you say "Recession might be more favorable....". You favor recession? (Just kidding, I know what you ment)

However, you did finish that sentence with "...we can wait to see which way the dominos fall". Are you obliquely admitting the *possibility* the the dominos could *fall* in the direction of of depression?

-- Greybear, who sure likes a higher signal to noise ratio

- Got a Magnifying Glass?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), February 22, 1999.

Greybear,

Clearly AES2010@aol.com comes from the wait-and-see, let's fix-on- failure school. Very risky strategy, IMHO. Especially when you do the research. (AE doesn't.)

And that's fine, and his/her choice. Not mine. And not the choice I make for elderly relatives or my surrounding community either.

Diane, still a global "5"

AES2010@aol.com, a local "10" or not. Toast or jam? Time will tell.

Got research? Use logic? Plan strategically? Plan to fail? Fail to plan?

Yep.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), February 22, 1999.

FUCK YOU ALL !!

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 22, 1999.

Now there's a gentleman and a scholar.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), February 22, 1999.

I really feel kinda bad about the way things have gone on here with this AES person. I've certainly done my part to bait his/her ire, sometimes on purpose, usually not. Based on a few things he/she has said, I have a feeling that we'd probably have a good time hanging out for a beer or whatever. But his/her perspective on this whole silly Y2K thing disturbs me. To me, the second paragraph of the orginal thread here contains many of the elements that I find disturbing...

"Personally I don't think technology or modern man is at risk from a doomsday scenario, or even from global depression..." Really, when it comes down to it, what does it matter what you think? Whatever is going to happen is going to happen, and you have no control over the big picture...

"Recession might be more favorable but I guess we can wait to see which way the dominos fall..." I'm not sure what the recession thing means, but I personally am not going to wait for dominos or anything else to take steps to protect myself...

"I posted this little tidbit because it sort of jived with what some people are saying and regardless of my own opinion it did seem relevant. Maybe it's nothing but maybe it is not..." (referring to his/her father starting work on a remediation project) This is the kind of thing that is usually greeted on the forum as good news; the fact that one more person is doing something to solve the problem. If you had left it at that, AES, I promise you people would have offered nothing but good wishes...

"I'm not doing any gung ho preparing no matter what flaming posters say..." And that's certainly your right. I personally don't care what all my DGI friends call me and say about me, I'm taking steps to ensure my safety. I don't succumb to their peer pressure, and you shouldn't succumb to ours, if your not comfortable with it. Just note the POSSIBLE consequences.

"Aside from an asteroid the size of long island killing us all off there won't be much that will stop the forward movement of humanity..." Just realize that this is the kind of statement that kills any possibility of credibility that you might enjoy among most of the people on this forum. If you insist on making statements like this, IN THIS CONTEXT, you will most likely be treated like a fool. Sorry, but that's the harsh reality of the situation.

I really don't quite understand why you stick around here, AES. But I'm glad that you do, because it says to me that maybe you're conflicted enough about the whole thing that maybe at some point, you'll come around enough and be comfortable enough to take a few steps to protect yourself. I certainly hope you do. And it's not an either/or thing. You don't have to believe that "The End of the World" is coming to buy a thousand bucks worth of preps.

Your last little outburst there shows how frustrated you are, and then you lash out, and that's why people treat you like a troll. Please remember, that it's not you the person, but the behavior that folks are responding to. Hopefully, you can turn that frustration into something more constructive.

Anyway, AES, I'd like to apologize for being an asshole to you a couple of times, and I really wish that you'd realize that most of the folks here really do want the best for EVERYONE, but don't suffer foolish behavior lightly...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 22, 1999.

AES -

In the interest of continued civility, I'll chalk that last explosiion up to what I assume is youth and press on.

In the software project biz, any unplanned addition of personnel to a project should seen as a "Red Flag", especially when (a) the change comes late in the schedule and (b) the personnel move impacts another important project. When projects start to slip, senior management have only a few tools to address the slippage. They can move the project deadline (not applicable with Y2K), they can reduce the project's scope (not applicable with Y2K), or they can throw resources (money, equipment, and/or personnel) at the project in hopes that that'll pick up the slack. That appears to be what happening here.

Unfortunately, Brooks' Law applies: Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.

You might want to read "The Mythical Man-Month" by Frederick Brooks, if you haven't already done so. Very insightful book.

I believe you're correct in your sense that your Dad's new assignment may be a cause for some concern. Please keep us posted.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), February 22, 1999.

Hello!

I didn't post that little F-U thing. When do i ever swear? It's someone's lame attempt at making me look like a jerk. Thanks alot whoever you are you little backstabbing name theif. My opinion of this lopsided forum is not changed at all in months.

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 22, 1999.

Just to clear a few things up:

First of all I bet you dollars to donuts my posts will be deleted tomorrow at this time. That is what makes this forum lopsided and while some people swear up and down the road their posts stay on becasue they swear on behalf of the popular Y2k views. But my posts are summarily deleted and that is just typical.

Second, I don't know who keeps posting things in my name like F-U all and that crap. I'm getting sick of whoever it is acting like some sneaky little jerk with no guts.

Third in respect to what I was saying, humanity won't be threatened except for asteroids the size of long island AND THINGS ON THAT LEVEL. Okay, is that more accurate for you critics? How is that so far fetched to say about mankind?

Fourth, my opinions are no more factually based than anyone here. You can quote whoever you like but that still doesn't mean you have the truth. Why you all insist on jumping all over me because I don't provide proof that this world can exist the way it is has gone beyond my comprehension. Did I ever say there weren't problems? No! I said things could go on still on this same track. HOW IS THAT so farfetched to say?

FACT: Nobody can say with any certainty that Y2K will be more than a bump in the road...

But when I say y2K will be no more than a little bump in the road I have to prove it. That is just ridiculous. But typical from the ranks of some of the YourDoneFor group.

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 22, 1999.

"But when I say y2K will be no more than a little bump in the road I have to prove it."

Not quite. You don't have to prove it, but you do have to provide supporting reasons and evidence. What reasons, facts and evidence lead you to conclude that it will be no more than "a little bump in the road"?

The proof of all our Y2K "positions" will occur quite soon and will be very empirical indeed. All the debating will be done and the facts and evidence (whatever they may be) will become quite clear.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), February 22, 1999.

AES-- ...And it really isn't anyones job to convince you otherwise. Not many people here are saying the world will end. Most of the long-time posters think the world will change. Preparing or not is your choice. The reason this forum exists andyour father was transfered was because people like your father waited too long to recognize the problem always existed.

There is really nothing else to say except it's good to hear about increased efforts by your father's company.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), February 22, 1999.

FACT: Nobody can say with any certainty that Y2K will be a "walk in the park" either ...

They are not just jogging anymore, they're sprinting. In any race, some make it across the finish line, others don't. That is observable fact too. If Y2K time was "unlimited" everyone could eventually stroll across, at their own pace.

It's not.

Don't prepare AES2010@aol.com, that's fine. Just don't whine later either. There's a lot more happening on this planet than Y2K, which might cause you to rethink your readiness strategy, or not.

Sleep well, little one.

Diane

Nature happens.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), February 22, 1999.

I refer back to my post of several days ago "Trolling for Answers"... No one, AES nor Maria have posted nor linked to substantive proof of any of their statements to defend their positions. This is the 'Liberals' approach (no, I'm not stating your political position, just using inference to facts in the same method that you do). Facts are facts. Not one power company, not one railroad, not one trucking company, not one airline, not one top ten FORTUNE 500 manufacturing company has declared their systems Y2K compliant. When someone can show me this, I might become a little more optimistic, but after my years of affiliation within the I.T. industry and transporation corporations throughout the U.S. and Carribbean, I remain a skeptic. A skeptic who still views this problem as a 7.5-8.0 on the TEOTOWAKI scale. No the world will not end. But our way of life will be changed, for some in a manner too drastic to deal with it.

-- John Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), February 22, 1999.

"I'm not doing any gung ho preparing no matter what flaming posters say....Actually, I don't HAVE to prove the end of the world ISN'T coming. It's your so called job to prove that it in fact IS going to end."--AES

I don't have to prove anything to your sorry arse, you're just annoying pixels on my screen who don't want to see the light, and probably too lazy to read the facts we post. If you want to suffer in 2000, it's your choice. But you're not the only one here who needs info and facts, there are newbies too, so I'll post a fact from the gov. for them too. The world might not end, but you sure could have your life a heck of a lot less cozy, as in begging in the streets.

January 20th GAO Report

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), February 22, 1999.

". My opinion of this lopsided forum is not changed at all in months."

AES 2010 WILL YoU ANSWER THIS QuESTIon for dieTer?????? WHY DOeS A SANE Person hAng out wiTh insanE PEOPLE?????? DO COoL GUYS BuDDY UP TO DwEEBS????? DOEs a HoRSE MIXeD WITH A DoNkEY MAKE FoR A JaCKASS????? SoRRY WROnG NUMBER!!!!

-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), February 22, 1999.

The fact is that I don't consider myself sane or insane like your little world gets caught up in doing to itself. I don't put a benchmark on sanity in any situation. That kind of behavior is for crazy people. I.E: Pyschiatrists and Psychologists and personal therapists god forbid.

The reason why I come here to this forum is becasue I do have interest. Not much interest. But I have a little. What is it to you if I post some things here that your mixed up little brain can't understand? You think I care how you FEEL about any of this? Nope, I don't.

I don't know if that answers your question but it was pretty hard to get any kind of question out of your CAPS on caps OFF STYle of wrITINg. I DON't thiNK YOU WERe REaDY to leave the ASYLUM when they LEt yOU OUt DIETer. BUT IT's OKaY... I'LL taLK tO yoo LIKe thiS if IT is The onLY waY you UNDERstand me.

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 22, 1999.

And here I went and bragged on AES about the new, better signal to noise ratio. Oh, well. I guess I was dreaming.

And BTW, while I was reading AESs last post and his little diatribe to Dieter something occured to me.

Several people have made commets about Deiter on several threads lately. The responses have been, as one would expect, all over the spectrum.

Now, what occured to me is HOW people are affected by Dieters unique style of posting. He may be affording us a small glimple into the future. Here's how. We've all learned to read characters in a certain pattern. The pattern I'm using now. So, along comes Dieter and presents the same types of words (more or less, is it not so?) that everyone else uses with the only essential difference being the CAPS LOCK KEY.

Yet, many abuse him for this. Yeah, I know it's irritating. It's not in the pattern you're used to. This may be an icon of the future. We are likely to see (and hear and feel) a LOT of things we are not used to.

This note is NOT about Dieter it is about OUR response to him. Or rather your response to him. I'm not flaming anyone for any particular response. Just pointing out that many, many worse things which we are not accustomed to may happen in our lives.

The world is going to change. It is NOT going to be the world you are used to. Get used to it.

-- Greybear

-Got Adaptibility?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), February 23, 1999.

Horse Hockey!

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 23, 1999.

"-Got Adaptibility."

followed by...

"Horse Hockey."

(I have a feeling AES may disavow ownership of the equine reference, However, I think this is relevant anyway...)

AES - This is what I like about your postings. You provide a window into the fixed/rigid type of thinking that most people are stuck in. If you really pay attention to this forum, you will find that very few of the regular D&G crowd go around saying "The End of the World..." but rather focus on the "As We Know It." part. I'm prepared for any set of possiblities (including a continuation of "the way things are") because, as Greybear suggests, I believe it's important to allow for adaptibility.

What will you do if even a mildly bad scenario occurs, and you are not able to adapt to it? What's the harm in opening up your thinking to the possibility that things may change radically? If nothing else, won't a more fluid mindset help prepare you for other possibilites in life that may require creativity and adaptibility?

You also must understand that people here ask for people to consider adaptibility for reasons of their own enlightened self-interest. If other people around us are able to cope in adversity, it will lighten the burden for everyone, especially, those who are prepared. Some of the more ...um... violent types are prepared to lighten that burden by shooting people who come around demading help from those who have prepared. And wouldn't that be a shame?

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 23, 1999.

Greybear...very perceptive. Forget Y2K for a minute and look at this from a strictly human angle. We need to be more open to each other. More accepting of each others quirks. Good times or bad. We're all entitled to be who we are. And we need to respect each other.

AES- what the hell is a horse hockey anyway? By the way I'm glad you're still with us. I thought that F-U thing was your final farewell. To the AES imposter- GROW UP!

-- (rick@ina.com), February 23, 1999.

Pshannon:

I'm the King of adaptability. I've lived in rural New york on a farm to the west coast cities of sun to the racially motivated southern city of Atlanta and about a half a dozen places in between. I'm not in the Military and I don't have a job that brings me all around the country. I'm just like that. I like to live in different places and I'm getting geared up to move to Colorado soon.

Beleive me I can adapt. That doesn't necessarily mean that I have to take on new ideas I don't agree with. If that teotwawstki thing happens then I'm okay. As some gospel singer once said... " I will Survive".

O BTW... Horse Hockey was something Colonel Potter used to say on the show M*A*S*H. He said it when he didn't agree with things. On and also BTW... if you ever see a post that I swear in it's probably not me. With one exception on the Dieter Alert thread and I couldn't help it. But from now on I won't be swearing so whoever the imposter is that steals names I hope you get your cyber hands cut off by an Iraqi.

-- (AES2010@aol.com), February 23, 1999.

GREYBEaR!!!!! DIEtER IS WATcHING You and is MOST ImPREssed!!!!!YOu ARE UNcanny, YES???? DIeTER Feels KINdREDNeSS tHErE, SALmOn is MOsT TASTY, ISit nOt????? YOu ARE A nOn fOOL!!!!GO FoRTH AND SpRed your WISdOM!!!!

-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), February 23, 1999.