This link was provided by someone in the csy2k newsgroup last night. no 'guarnatees' of power supply

I have been researching the issue of Y2K in depth for quite some time and it is becoming so frustrating for me not getting any absolute answers that I am pulling my hair out. I think I am bordering on psychosis. You hear one thing from one expert and another thing from another expert.

I have survived in the Canadian wilderness for over one year many years ago without any modern amenities like power and plumbing. I have spent a winter in Ontario Canada where the temperature hovers at -40 below F. and I felt more secure then than I do now. I lived in a log cabin for shelter that was heated by a woodstove. I will say that I am prepared but will hesitate to say for how long. Is three month's enough? Anyone?

-- Anonymous, February 21, 1999

Answers

I'm confused also Steve. I have been reading posts here for several weeks now and I still don't know what to think. I am not familiar with power systems at all. I don't pretend to. I need to depend on those that are educated. I read posts from CL and Factfinder who are saying that out of all the testing that is being done nothing has been found that would indicate that there are going to be any problems. I then wonder then why in the world are power companies worried about it at all and spending millions of dollars. It seems like a waste of money. I then read what others have to say and it leaves me with enough reasonable doubt to wonder if everything will work. I don't think anyone can give a clear cut answer. It seems that there are too many variables to say yes there are going to be problems or no there won't. I have 6 kids and with that many variables, I always keep a plunger next to the toilet....just in case. I suppose that's how I'll look at this....prepare enough in case the toilet over flows.

-- Anonymous, February 22, 1999

Steve and Cecil,

Yes it is confusing and frustrating. However, there is some good news. First of all, utilities are working the hell out of the problem. Last summer many were sleeping and we did not know if they would wake up. Rick was trying to wake them them and for a while it looked impossible.

Then, once they started working the embedded chip problem there was internal confusion on how much to test and what to test. The good news is now that they are finding less problems than what could have been there. The other piece of good news is that if their are breakdowns it appears that the number of breakdowns will be able to get handled with the existing manpower. I am not saying we are out of the woods but it could have gone the other way with many more embedded systems in trouble.

There are many more areas affecting utilites to be adressed: telecommunications, GPS, coal, nuclear, railroad, etc. However, at least the embedded side of power generation, transmission, and distrubution isn't turning out worse than imagined.

Another point. By this summer some utilities will be ready. Some of their experienced y2k staff will be available to help their neighboring utilities. A few experienced hands can keep the less experience on track and managed well.

You might know from my posts that in the past I have had my share of pessimism. However, the data is now coming in on the positive side.

-- Anonymous, February 22, 1999

Steve and Cecil, What you have to do is look at the whole picture. The systems we have today are too interconnected for ANYONE to be able to predict what the future holds... No one can say for a certainty what will happen. It is very much appreciated thaqt Rick makes this point, he and others in the industry have wide experience and yet they have NO IDEA what will happen. Anyone who tells you it will be a disaster doesn't know what they are talking about AND anyone who says it will be a bump in the road doesn't know what they are talking about. It is prudent to prepare for atleast a few months of problems. If everything works out fine you eat some cheap stored food and water. If it is very bad you just might survive. My concerns are not with the US power industry but with their suppliers. The Gartner group estimates that the middle East countries (oil producers) have a 50% chance of a mission critical failure in all of their industries. (This is oversimplified, and someone should have a link to the report) Now if 20% of the oil that we import daily doesn't show up for any reason (drilling, refining, distribution to port, loading on tankers, ship fueling, port docking/loading/unloading on both sides of the ocean, tanker load distribution/navigation/propulsion computers, customs, off loading, proper distribution in gas lines, transportation on trains, trucks, and telecommunications, insurance for all of these endeavors, banking for loans, etc) everything must work nominally or there WILL be delays. The influence of those delays will never be known until they happen, bankruptcies, layoffs, bank closings, etc. the number of variables are too huge to imagine and process. If South Korea, China, Taiwan, Mexico don't function neither will, Ford, GM, CHrysler, IBM, HP, Intel etc. These are the supplier countries of big business. Just think what would happen to our economy if GM and UPS had to close up shop. That is just 2 companies and yet they would have an enormous dent in our economy. What if even a couple utility companies that provided power for these companies blew a couple of transmission lines due to unballenced loads and loss of generation and loss of load. What if you were a customer to that utility. Individual users will be one of the last on the list in restoration of service. First is the military(National Security), second is emergency services ( police, Fire, Hospitals, then come established "official" shelters, then and only then do residential cutomers get power supplied if there is enough stability to maintain the system. Add to that a possible regional NATURAL disaster like the Ice storm in the North East and it could potentially be very serious. Then it could be a bump in the road. NO ONE KNOWS.... Mark

-- Anonymous, February 22, 1999

I was on the phone with Steve Davis, a 24-year y2k veteran. He claims that the utilities are only running 45% of their capacity in the winter. This means a tremendous amount of failure needed to cause winter blackouts, because the unneeded plants are shut down, maintained and ready for start-up. According to Mr. Davis, some powerplants managements have actually advanced their timeclocks so the computers "think" it's 2001, right now.

I am more worried about the longterm cost and availability of foreign oil, and the resultant cost to consumers, especially in the deregulation environment.

-- Anonymous, February 25, 1999