Anybody out there tried this "doomsday computer?"

(Asked you to enter your guess (in percentages) of failures in certain areas and it computes the percentage of total collapse.

Comments?

http://www.y2knewswire.com/Y2Kengine.htm

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), February 21, 1999

Answers

FM: You'll find in the archives that we covered that site pretty thoroughly last year. I know it's hard without a search engine, but you'll find there are very few topics that weren't discussed, analyzed and argued about long ago by some pretty smart people who don't post much anymore because they've been through it too many times. Take an evening and look through the archives...good reading.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), February 21, 1999.

Good advice, PGN

-- De (dealton@concentric.net), February 21, 1999.

Agree with PNG - the DD 'puter got a lot of flack I seem to recall - do check out the threads on this and other topics.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 21, 1999.

O.K. Dumb question of the day. Where do I find the archives? :)

Thanks Y'all!

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), February 21, 1999.

Not dumb question at all...

I'm glad your investigating things. Keep up the good work!

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), February 21, 1999.

FM,

1) When we write "the archives" we mean the section titled "Older Messages (by category)" at the bottom of the "New Questions" page.

2) The "Circle of Dominoes" engine at the site you mention is good only for an elementary, simplistic overview of the concept of interdependencies between industries. Its results should never be taken to be, or promoted as, realistic predictions.

Although the introduction for the "Circle of Dominoes" engine at the otherwise-good Y2K Newswire site states, "based on your own assumptions", that is simply not true. There are a great many assumptions built into the programming of that interactive device that are not explicitly described or acknowledged, and are not yours.

The answers all depend on the various sectors being connected exactly the way the programmer has programmed them. In reality, the connections between sectors are not simple arithmetic formulas, and the sectors themselves are no so clear-cut as presented by the accompanying description.

Even if you were willing to work with the unrealistically simplistic sectors and connections, how would you know whether you agree that the arithmetic formulas used in the calculations are correct? You don't, because you can't see or change them.

I wouldn't mind this "Circle of Dominoes" engine's being used to illustrate simple concepts of connectivity and dependence, but I think it is being unjustifiably promoted as much more than that. It needs a bunch of disclaimers, at the very least, to avoid misleading people who use it.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), February 21, 1999.