40 days to go?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I could be wrong, but are we within striking distance of Y2K? Aren't the banks in Canada and Japan going to crash as of April 1st, but likely sooner as everyone pulls their money out?

Shadow */*

-- Shadow (foo@foo.com), February 18, 1999


You are wrong! Only New York State Government, Canadian Government and Japan's Government are going Fiscal 2000 on April 1st, 1999.

-- Freddie the Freeloader (freddie@aol.com), February 18, 1999.

Freddie, have you been freeloading too long? What was wrong with my statement?


-- shadow (foo@foo.com), February 18, 1999.

Oh, I see... you don't distinguish between banks and government. Well sorry to disappoint you Freddy, but the banks in Canada roll over along with the government. Japan I'm not sure about. And try taking assertiveness training to bolster your point of view OK. LIKE THIS!!!!!!! YOU ARE WRONG!!!! SHADOW!!!! WRONG!!!!! DEAD WRONG!!!!!


-- shadow (foo@foo.com), February 18, 1999.

Nice shot Freddie but NOT a 10 ring!! Japan starts fiscal 1999 in april. One of the few entities who falls fiscal Foreward instead of backward like the rest of the world.


-- Chuck, night driver (rienzoo@en.com), February 18, 1999.

Yep, and I am eager to hear the excuses about why they don't fail after April Fools day. But, I guess you doom lovers will just ignore the failure of your predictions just like the predictions of failures on 9/9/98 and 1/1/99 were ignored after the fact. No one did that! Never happened! Rewrite history!

Course the ones I really want to hear are the ones I'll hear after New Years day. Those are going to be funny.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 19, 1999.

SHADOW! Say what you mean and mean what you say! It'd as simple as that! Nothing difficult about that unless you're a.......

-- Freddie the Freeloader (freddie@aol.com), February 19, 1999.

Paul, I disagree with you about y2k, but I do remember last summer that something big, was supposed to occur on a certain date and didn't. I happened to be visiting another forum the day before, and they were close to hysteria. When nothing happened, not a word was mentioned about it the next day.

But then my mother, who feared lightning, was constantly warning me about it, as if there was anything I could do to stop it. She was at my house during a big electrical storm and kept up the usual fear chatter, with me pooh poohing the whole thing. Of course, a bolt of lightning just had to strike a huge tree right next to my house, blowing limbs across the street, burning out my electric stove, scaring the dog into fits, and we must have jumped straight up. Guess what I heard the rest of her life, "I told you so."

I want to be on the "I told you so side." How can I do that without a computer?

-- gilda jessie (jess@listbot.com), February 19, 1999.

If having Paul Davis and the other pollyannas gloating "see we told you y2k was no big thing" is the downside to preping for y2k, then let's hope people will keep on preparing.

There have been problems already due to the 98/99 rollover. They have been posted here and elsewhere. For Paul and the rest of them, the deck will have to be wet before they realize the boat is sinking.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), February 19, 1999.

Egret over on GN's forums says that by April 1st it will be too late to prepare!!!! Better get a mean on guys!!!!!

-- Butt Nugget (bniag@bniag.con), February 19, 1999.

"Aren't the banks in Canada and Japan going to crash as of April 1st, but likely sooner as everyone pulls their money out?"

Keep in mind that crash might be too strong a term here, it may very well be that they will cease to be reliable, resulting in a loss of confidence on the part of people, as problems get publicized. ("Granny called from New York, says she needs money, she didn't get her check because of The Computer Problems.") This may indeed cause John Q. Public to become alarmed and want to cash out of the banking system. Of course, this would indeed cause bank runs, since is actually very little cash available (~1.4%).

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), February 19, 1999.

Two quotes from an article by PNG on the (non)-significance of April...


"Japan begins FY 1999 on April 1, 1999 - It does NOT begin FY 2000 on April 1, 1999."


"Fiscal years have little to do with company or country operations. Producing products, providing services and distributing them are the elements that create commerce. Looking ahead in projections and deciding where and when you are going to post the results is keeping score...not producing, providing, or distributing."

In other words, fiscal year rollover problems are not very visible. The problem will be when manufacting, producing and distributing encounter post- December 31, 1999 dates during the second half of this year.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 19, 1999.


Do me a favor and don't bring up April 1999 again. I have went on record several times now as saying April's problems won't be any more visible to the public than January's problems were.

The biggest threat to public confidence is when large companies like GM start switching from non-compliant to compliant vendors in July. Other threats to public confidence are if nuclear power plants miss their July 1, 1999 deadline, or if perhaps the IRS has problems getting refunds to people this tax season.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 19, 1999.

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