Is 'Grassroots' Community Preparedness Doomed To Failure?

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How many members of a 'grassroots' community preparation group are needed to undertake a successful community preparation activity? Twenty, hundreds or a few thousand people meeting in a city of millions, due to the ratio of unprepared citizens, after all is said and done is still a survivalist group. The prepared will hoard and hide out waiting for the 'officials' to show up to the rescue. The one's who share will quickly have their resources depleted and join the throng of the needy unprepared.

For this reason, I believe, a great number of civil-minded, very concerned individuals will not step forward to lend a hand. The task is too overwhelming. Safest thing to do is forward Y2K 'sightings' to each other. Quite a valuable activity a few years ago when most everyone was into the 'awareness stage' but now, like treading water, not going anywhere. Draw your conclusions and get on with preparations now, whatever you deem appropriate.

An ideal community preparation effort, regardless of size of populace, needs input of manpower and funding resources from the Feds, State, County and municipalities, all working in unison and in cooperation with the citizens in a massive scale. Can they work together? I guess we're all going to find out soon enough. I have my doubts.

In the final analysis, it still all comes down to the individual taking responsibility for themselves and their family. Collectively, 300 million people in North America can not be assisted through the disruptive stages by governments alone. They (we) do not have the resources to make sure every individual is kept warm and fed when the power, fuel and food distribution systems get interrupted.

People know in their heart of hearts that generally the majority of citizens will try to buy what they need when the Y2K disruptions start. When there are scarcities and funds run out, they'll borrow or ask for handouts and when those aren't available, a great number will TAKE what they require. That is the truth of why the failure of the formation of large community prep groups.

You're either prepared or you're not. At any time during the disruptions, depending on the duration, you can quickly go from moderately, well prepared to drastically in need. The first impulse when you don't have pure water to drink or food to eat is to seek out help. The more people seeking out help, the more scarce the resources and taxed the authorities will be, the less likely of timely, efficient assistance.

I can't fault others for not wanting to get involved in community preparation. It's certainly a daunting task requiring many hours of research and common sense, unappreciated and doomed to failure without a great number participating, especially all levels of government.

What would be the ideal scene during the Year 2000 rollover and the following months of trouble? I think if every household had ample stores of food and purified water to last a few months (did he say 'a few months?!! YES! ) and have already made arrangements through networking with friends and relatives for a place to meet with an alternative heat source if and when the power goes out, than we'd ALL come through this OK.

Anything short of that will bring on hardships. Hardships for those unprepared and difficulties to those who've prudently set aside stores. Difficulties for the prepared in the way of demands to share what they have. Thus reducing the survival of most everyone.

We're not talking here of just individual to individual or group to group. We're talking about city to city, State to State and country to country!

In conclusion, I've outlined the problem of launching a successful community preparation group, who needs to be involved to ensure the rollover is relatively painless and the ideal scene during that rollover.

Now it's up to the players to come together. If not, we all lose.

Gary Allan Halonen

An Interesting Article in the Washington Post



-- Gary (njarc@ica.net), February 17, 1999

Answers

Interesting commentary, Gary. Well said.

It appears that, like it or not, if y2k is going to be as problematic as community prep advocates predict, institutions (with their broadbased, well established communications and "distribution" pipelines), and skilled contingency planning/emergency response professionals will _need to be at the forefront.

That may seem a no-brainer, but the subtle point would be that perhaps we (those of us who are not working within institutions, or as contingency/emergency planning professionals), need to find ways to cooperate with those institutions and whatever their plans may be, instead of fighting or trying to circumvent them, no matter how necessary that may seem (because of the way most seem to be hiding).

A simple for instance (on the most basic level) would be the broad and rapid dissemination of the "certifiable recommendations" of the Red Cross and FEMA to the general population. FEMA says "Prepare now," and the Red Cross says, "For 3 days to 2 weeks of trouble."

Using time, resources, energy to get that message out to our neighbors is a completely dumbo waste of time to a lot of community prep activists. There are calls in the grassroots community for everything from stirring the masses to demand accurate information from every government official and service provider in the community, to setting up alternative localized food chain systems, to implementing plans for social transformation. While all those calls are noble, mostly good ideas, and no doubt appropriate, the overriding reality seems to be they aren't working out in terms practical implementation in all but the most isolated cases (if there).

Encouraging people to prepare for 3 days to 2 weeks of disruptions may seem like a gigantic comedown, or totally putrid response, but it _does provide a "lowest common denominator" that almost _everyone can agree on because it's being put forth by the "institutional rocks," and, as the old saws go, "Every little bit helps," "It's a start," and, "A bird in the hand is worth 10,000 in the brain."

From that basic starting point (personal preparedness), it would seem the most intelligent "next step" up the cooperative ladder would be the encouragement/support/cooperation with as many as possible of the things outlined in Capers Jones Municipal Contingency Planning Guide (August, 1998), and more recently, Steve Davis's/Coalition 2000's Community Preparedness (draft) document.

As Steve put it in his note about that paper, "This has been prepared as an effort to build consensus on the issue of appropriate Y2K preparedness. The document is intended as guidance to local government and civic leaders and is intended to complement FEMA's "Contingency Planning for Year 2000 Problems A Guide for State and Local Emergency Managers" that is currently under development. The idea behind this document is that if this type of message can be delivered clearly and consistently, it will enable local leaders to facilitate emergency and community preparedness efforts."

In my humble estimation, it is an excellent paper, outline, guide. Probably the best of its kind so far. As yesterday's update indicated, it's probably a little too much (in terms of time to prepare for?) for the institutional community to sign onto (or, frankly, handle), but that takes little away from it.

But primarily, this note is related to the term "build consensus on the issue of appropriate Y2K preparedness" which, I think, is about focus, or "singleness of purpose." As far as my part of whatever concensus there is goes, I'd say our efforts may be best focused on getting out the most basic message the most people are likely to find acceptible (basic personal prep/the FEMA and Red Cross message), and from there seeking to be supportive of the not at all simple or easy tasks outlined in both Capers Jones' and Coalition 2000's guides. As Harlan Smith has often put it (and I paraphrase completely), there are 275 million people in America alone, and thinking a serious y2k result can be dealt with without the inclusion of government/instututions is - well... Crazy.

Bill

-- Bill (billdale@lakesnet.net), February 18, 1999.


Thanks for your input Bill, and to those who've privately emailed me with their opinions on the above article. I only wish that those who did send me notes privately would have responded here within the forum so others could share in your opinions.

Rather than write notes to the people who asked for clarifications on the material, I'll respond here since many are on 'email alert' for this thread anyway or pop in from time to time.

Community preparation groups are a very good idea, after all, I've been advocating that approach for years now and have grown certain that prep groups can evolve into prep'ed communities. But only, at this late date, quickly with government, industry and established community associations contributing. We don't have a lot of time.

Should a person form or get involved in a Y2K community prep group? Of course! What's the harm? You may learn something or have valuable knowledge to share with other's who want to prepare. At the very least, you'll be with other Y2K aware people who can share what they know of the local situation and useful local resources.

Would your local, State or Federal government contribute seed money to get your activities off the ground? Perhaps they will but don't count on it. You can build a fancy web site with tons of information, call some people together, put up posters around town announcing Y2K prep meetings along with other inexpensive grassroots activites. All worthwhile and certainly worthy of government and corporate sponsorship but you need to ask them for help first. I doubt they'd throw money your way before exploring and probably expiring the brains of the 'old boys club' first who get the gravy of consultants fees. Perhaps those same consultants will recommend putting up a facade of community involvement by the government, so funds will be made available to your effort.

After all, the more prepared the majority of citizens are, the less problems for the emergency people when the disruptions start, both technically and socially. You could say, they have a vested interest in having as many people prepared as possible within the short time remaining. You could point this fact out if governments haven't woke up to the reality of Y2K, it's interdependency and governing liabilities.

I've personally asked the Premier of Ontario for sponsorship to install this system (Year 2000 Preparation & Recovery Network) in every town and city in Ontario. All that's required is a server and a local web master to do minimal maintenance (to hit the delete key for ranting blow-hards and blatant advertising). The communities themselves could use it for local prep announcements and the exchange of ideas and resources. Officials could disseminate their contingency plans automatically and instantly via the 'email alerts'. I make no apologies for going cap in hand to Premier Harris. The system is a relatively inexpensive alternative to spending 10's of millions of dollars on an ad campaign open to partisan attacks and avoids that 'government telling us what to do' flavour, most of us dislike and ignore.

I won't count on the Ontario government's support for this project. If it happens fine. If not, fine. I'll sleep with a clear conscience come year 2000 knowing I've done what I could to help with my limited resources.

Like all new activities starting out, be they community prep groups or this system or any new project for that matter, a critical mass of numbers involved has to be reached before the endeavour takes off and reaches the status of 'credibility'. For a small town, a group of say, twenty concerned citizens could get the mayor and town councils ear. A larger city requires a larger group to warrant respect and attention by officials, perhaps a few hundred. Best to have a few prominent local community and business leaders or celebrities involved in the prep group to garner attention from the media.

The Year 2000 Preparation & Recovery Network probably needs around 20 sites before reaching 'critical mass' and then the network will probably leap to 50 which then leaps to 100 sites. After that, who knows? Perhaps thousands of towns and cities around the world connecting up. It's the first sites connecting up that's not unlike pulling teeth. It could happen, should happen, but it's not up to Bill and I now.

I suppose some people are waiting for a government program, or someone else to do it and numerous other personal considerations like not wanting to look like an alarmist or fool. But I can tell you that if the government decides to seek out the support and contributions of grassroots community prep groups, and none are available, they'll keep the planning and implementation stages of the BIG preparations to themselves internally and be forced to do the 'top down' command line modus operanda without local input. Or, at best, dubious input from vested interest groups pushing their own self-preservation agendas. Not, in my estimation, a very good thing. They won't see the community in the BIG PICTURE and may miss important ingredients of citizen co-ordination and co-operation. The citizens themselves won't get on board. "Look what those strange, power hungry people are pushing now!"

Community prep groups are a very important element in the mix of Y2K rollover contingency planning and the recovery cycle. Probably one of the most important for the citizens, given the time available and looking at the governments right this moment moving to safeguard their power of rule using police and troops (force if need be). Community prep groups can be the voice of the locals that governments can provide input on what is planned for the area and get feedback from.

As it presently stands, governments can dictate community prep and recovery plans down to the local mayor, city council, police and emergency workers, but from that point onward, it becomes a volunteer activity. Volunteers to help the community or, at the very least, volunteering to prepare your own household.

Either way, best to have some type of grassroots activity in place preparing the community. I hope governments and those wondering about getting organized in their area realize this before it's too late.

Gary Allan Halonen

-- Gary (njarc@ica.net), February 27, 1999.


As I can see the situation, the general population if waiting for the elected officials to tell them what to do. I am talking to friends and aquaintances about y2k and what can happen to our society if things do go wrong. Some people are listening and say they will prepare themselves others are telling me that I am a raving lunatic. I personally are preparing for fallout within my means, others are waiting as usual for the last minute. A prime example is a snowstorm. When there is a forecast of a major snowstorm coming, the towns are full of people buying food and whatever they need when the snow is falling and conditions are deteriorating and driving is getting treacherous. Not one minute before. The same thing will happen for y2k. To start a grassroots organisation for the y2k preparation is a thankless effort for the majority of people who have done so or doing it right now. I know, because my new name is now 2yk Bill. I just found out the other day. Here in Ontario people are too complacent and too trusting in the Government which will as normal only look after themselves and not after the people. THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT LET THAT HAPPEN TO US. This anwer is quite stereotype for my warnings about things to come. I do cringe when I get this answer, knowing that the only reliance is self-reliance. My last ditch effort is now to downplay things to the point of telling them just to lay in some food and water and whatever else they need with the reasoning that you always can eat the food and use the water as well as the money if nothing does happen. See, you are not loosing anything. You always will use it, right? Does anybody go out to prepare themselves a little after being told. If you believe that, well a have a prime piece of developing land on Baffin Island too. A 25 acre mall would get you set for life. The price is a real bargain. Starting grass roots organisation has its positive side too. The person who starts it will at least be prepared for things to come.

When I look at the masses of population regardless of what country they live in, all I see is sheep. Baa, Baa, Baa. Ready for the slaughterhouse. Just follow the leader. The knives are waiting. Do not worry about a thing, we will take care of you. ---- and the sheep will follow ----- I know that I am stepping on very thin ice with that statement, because it is the truth. Nobody wants to hear the truth. It is bad to tell the truth. It is inconvenient, does not fit the our thinking - WE DO NOT WANT TO HEAR THE TRUTH. Mass media has the people trained. Believe everything you hear on the Radio and see on TV, read in the Newspaper. Do not think independently. Do not question anything we tell you - because we are the media - and we know it all. How many people can see the interconnection of computers in our modern and fast paced society. What do they know about JIT deliveries. What do they know about how Banks work. WHAT DO THEY KNOW? better WHAT DO THEY WANT TO KNOW?

Bill Thommes

-- William I. Thommes (liberty@ican.net), February 27, 1999.


About a year ago I got to thinking about pre-world war 2 days. I started to wonder how Hitler - in a country the size of Texas - was able to build up a war machine powerful and well oiled enough to just about crush a third of the world. How did he get away with it? How could people not notice, not put 2 and 2 together, get on his neck and stop him before he was ready to go?

One day last summer I was standing out in the driveway talking to my neighbors, who were in their early 20s when the war broke out. They told me, "Oh. Everybody knew about it. They just didn't think he'd do anything."

No doubt there were a few people going around trying to warn people about Hitler and what might happen if somebody didn't do something. No doubt (obviously) they were dismissed, frustrated, and later amazed to see how much worse it actually got than even they thought it could.

Is the same thing happening now (whatever that "apathy factor" actually is)? Are we on the threshold of something from the same horror story vein as world wars? That's the trillion dollar question, isn't it... The big difference in this case is that if we are, we'll probably all find ourselves "living in Europe." Imagine being someone living 20 miles outside Paris in 1938 or so. Someone who'd been aware since 1936 of what Hitler was up to. Imagine your wife was Jewish and you had 3 kids. That her parents lived in Berlin and were sending letters describing what was going on. Imagine what the government would have said if you called and asked them about the situation. Imagine how you might have felt 5 years later if you had taken their word for it (and you were still alive).

There were quite a few people in that position back then. Some of them "prepared," took action, got out of harm's way, or had arrangements in place that allowed them to escape at the first sign of real trouble. Most didn't. Most of them are gone now and can't tell us what they would've done differently - what the real life difference between preparing and not preparing actually meant in that situation.

Here's an interesting note someone in California sent me a few months ago. Everything goes back to that trillion dollar question of course, but stories like this (from that history we're all supposed to be learning from so we don't repeat the same mistakes?), always make me think it would be best to "error on the side of caution." Why others are so reluctant to even look at just the reasons I'm concerned is a profound, apparently age-old, mystery.

The Band (probably my all-time favorite Canadian export - right after the bacon, of course), has a line in one of their songs that says, "Save your neck or save your brother - - Looks like it's one or the other." I don't like it, but the longer this "apathy" thing goes on, the truer that seems to get. Here's that note I got last spring...

"Another surreal experience. I'm living with a 95 year old woman who is far far far from computer literate. She survived the Russian revolution. Her father was a diplomat and the whole family was in Russia when it hit. Father was killed. She & the remaining family hid out in Russia for three years, hidden by servants in cellars, no shoes, very little food, almost lost mom to starvation, finally walked barefoot through the forest one night to freedom.

Then WWI hit, lost friends to the war, her family was very wealthy, had more than one estate, lived in Belgium. When WWII hit, the Belgian army camped out on her estate, officers used it as operation headquarters, Nazis came, she barely escaped again with her life.

Anyway, with this kind of background behind her she didn't need to be computer saavy to quickly see the implications. Her response was, "Oh, no not another revolution. I don't want to go through this again." She recognizes the denial around her as the same state of mind held by folks prior to the wars she was in. No one thought they would happen either, life went on as usual, right up until it hit. She's ready to get rid of the house she's lived in for the last 35 years and head for the hills (although her concept of the hills is a nice little condo project near Santa Barbara) - but she is ready to act. Surprised me. She regrets that she hadn't prepared for the wars she's been through ahead of time - there were warnings. Lost everything more than once. She teaches yoga for the local beach cities and told me that one of them passed out information about shelters they were building for national emergency.

I feel like I'm sleep walking sometimes. Seems like we're having the same sort of experience with this. Hope we can learn something useful from history."



-- Bill (billdale@lakesnet.net), February 28, 1999.

Hi Bill. I do like to mention someting regarding your thoughts of WWII and what was going on back than. The writing was on the wall, but nobody reacted. I read back in 1994 - 1995 an article in a US Magazine regarding what it would take for a Government to do, to be the last one elected. Scary thought with the upcoming event. Right now the writing is on the wall. We will see the outcome. Maybe that is the reason why someone was too stubborn to resign because he knows more than we can even dream of? He does fit the profile. We are not any better off here in Canada either. Bill

-- William I. Thommes (liberty@ican.net), February 28, 1999.


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