Paging AES2010, are you out there, AES2010? : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I couldn't help noticing your comments in other threads. You just don't GET IT, do you? So you think this is a "theory", the real problem is the "internet cult", and things are just fine in the "real" world. I suggest you take off the rosey glasses. I've been a computer professional for 31 years, now a systems and network administrator, for a small (35 people) computer services company. One of our projects is converting our largest customer from a mainframe based to web based technology. This system makes extensive use of dates. We felt it would be impossible to "patch" the old mainframe system. We currently have 6 developers, 3 support people, 2 managers, and myself working full-time on this project. Some of these people have been involved since 1996. The cost in salary alone will exceed $2,000,000. Is this "real world" enough for you? We know we won't make the deadline of summer 2000 for their production, and so does the customer. Oh, we'll have a system up and running, enough to get the "critical" information published, but far from complete. We estimate at least two more years of work is needed to complete this project.

The president of our company is far from a geek. I doubt he has been on the internet more than an hour over the past year. Yet he is very concerned for our survival. Most of our customers are publishers. Even if we do go out of business, it wouldn't mean much in the overall picture. I wish I could say the same thing about the power and oil companies.

Have you bothered to look at any of the information here, or any other Y2K related site? What do you think about the largest power co. in NJ being only 15% done and tested, at this late date? I would be more than happy to continue this discussion if you bother to answer this post. If you don't, all I can do is wish you luck. You'll need it. <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999


Hey Sys- -

Don't throw pearls before trolls. They don't want their happy world rocked. They DGI, the DWannaGI, and they will not be convinced no matter what facts or technical data you present to them. It's an ideological argument to them, not a factual one. Save your keystrokes for those that want the info.

The same condition exists in the culture war going on in the nation. Truth no longer matters. They don't want to hear any bad news. It's all perception, spin and saving the comfort zone of the populace.

Let them go herd-style into that goodnight. Spend your energy on those that want to know. Ignore the trolls.

Or, better yet, submit a plot point for the next episode of the Bagga Saga. Very theraputic.

-- INVAR (, February 17, 1999.

You're wasting your time, Sysman. He's a troll, probably in his third or fourth incarnation. Some of them delight in getting us to respond, and most of us are guilty of doing just that. I stupidly responded to this one earlier today. From now on, I'll just ignore him. If we all do that, they'll go away.

-- Vic (, February 17, 1999.

But what Sysman has posted is very good all the same, facts about his company I didn't know. Not a waste, Sysman :-)

Keep plugging at your company and with DGI's. I'm not looking forward to TEOTWAWKI and any tidbit to thwart it helps.

-- Chris (, February 17, 1999.

Sorry to de-lurk here again:

Sysman, you've spouted the this misinformation more than once about PSE&G, and nobody else has bothered to correct you, thought I'd try:

Really should get your info from someone other than The Gare-ster.

Hmm, a "Y2k consultant trying to scare up business". That tune sounds familiar.


-- (, February 17, 1999.

Well AG, first thanks for the update. I was not aware of this, and was using the 15% figure based on Iceberg posted here a few days ago. This is good news, however it talks about lines of code and says nothing about embedded systems.

Also I hope you're refering to the "Y2K consultant" in the article, and not me. We have lost customers because we don't have enough time to work on their systems. And we will be very busy for the next few years, converting other customers so we can dump our mainframe. <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

PS - Link PSEG

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.


No problem on the link.

And, err, no, the "consultant" wasn't referring to you.


-- (, February 17, 1999.

By the way AG, do you thing the latest 90% figure for PSE&G is a real number, or do you think it's more like the 90% in England discussed here... BBC News <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

You must live a very sheltered life. Oh well, I tried. Good luck. <:(=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

Yeah, this is why Government and Corporations are spending MILLIONS to fix a "hypothetical situation".

What a maroon.

Let's just all cancel our insurance policies, because taking precautions of any kind for any reason will incite panic and worry thus causing a self-fulfilling prophecy. After all, insurance salesmen are just panic peddlers trying to sucker worry-warts.

What a maroon.

>>Maybe Arlin could use his extensive psychological knowledge to tell you how deluded and insane it is for humans to behave like that. <<

Living proof idiots walk the earth.

Got logic?

-- INVAR (, February 17, 1999.

This is just so typical, isn't it? (AES's response) and kinda sad too. I mean, there's the possibility that this person could be in danger, and he/she just wants to shoot the messenger. "Enlist new cultists"? I think this person is feeling threatened...

"But the one thing I'm not going to do is fret about it and try to convince others to worry about a hypothetical situation . . ."

AES, you spend your mental energy however you want. I've got no problem with that. You approach this however you want in how you deal with other people. Nobody, but nobody knows how it's going to shake out. However, scanning the news about Y2K, it's obvious that the "Official" as well as the "realistic" view is getting worse and worse. You might actually be one of the lucky ones IF YOU CHOOSE TO BE and do a few things NOW to prepare and protect yourself. Because it's sliding downhill, my friend.

The point is, you are HERE on this forum, and if you use your filters properly, you are privy to a vast and exclusive storehouse of knowledge and caring from people who have been dealing with this in various ways for a while. It seems that you have something that you are dealing with that prevents you from doing that. As you said:

"Maybe Arlin could use his extensive psychological knowledge to tell you how deluded and insane it is for humans to behave like that. . ."

-- pshannon (, February 17, 1999.

Well AES, my boss is concerned about things like the cost to convert systems, the cost of supporting another hardware platform, lost customers, lack of new business because we're all busy, etc. etc. Sure, we can bill for some of the work, but most are saying if you want to keep out production business, YOU make it work. But if you don't care, why are you still here? I have better things to do than try to make somebody understand when their mind is already made up. <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

Correction - That should be "keep OUR business"

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

AES, yes, I do see a few here trying to scare people. But I think most are here to learn. Most are here to figure out how bad it is going to be. Keep on doubting, and I hope you're correct. But what if you are not correct? What if only 1 or 2 major things do go wrong? Is it not worth it to be prepared? <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.,

Check and verify. I see no evidence that you are doing any of that. Just ranting.

Hardly a valuable contribution here, or anywhere. If the Y2K "news" is so good and accurate, then post it. With links. And cite several sources to "round out" your research.

You DID learn "how to" research in school, didn't you? Or did you just skip class?

Diane, Information Navigator

Try it -- you might learn something.

-- Diane J. Squire (, February 17, 1999.

Sorry to disagree again. I think the dominos will fall. Our oil suppliers are in deep trouble. Our refineries are in trouble. This problem is 35 years old. How many thousands of programmers have been hard at work for the past 35 years, using 2 digit dates? Do you really think we have enough people to fix enough code to keep things afloat? It has been said that it;s easier to build a new refinery, than it is to find, fix, and test all the embeded in an existing one. See any new refineries going up? <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

AES, either shit of get off the pot. If you have facts to back yourself up, post them. Sources, links. Otherwise, you deserve no better consideration than INVAR's JBD saga.

You're against brains here buddyboy. You stand no chance to convince anyone but other trolls like yourself, and none of us give a shit about trolls/DGI/DWGI/weenies like you.

Read again what this forum is for. People of same concerns who want help in preparing. You don't like it, tough shit. Start your forum and have a ball.

-- . (, February 17, 1999.

Diane - you asked AES to post links to his good news. That's happened several times over the last few months and each and every time good news is posted here, it gets ripped to shreds (the power grid or whatever). Everytime! That's why I quit posting. I honestly think that the folks that frequest this NG really don't care to see the good news. It screws up the fantasy of a 'new world' or a 'new beginning'. The phrase 'thinning the herd' has shown up hundreds of times. You really should listen to yourselves sometimes.


-- Deano (, February 17, 1999.

Well AES, I don't think this is a $ problem. It's a resource problem, and a time problem. Yes, we will have a "minimum" system up. But like I said, this is hardly a critical issue. What do you consider a minimum for the power industry, or the oil industry? 50%? 75% 90%? What will it do if we have only 50% of these companys fixed on time? And we are in good shape compared with most of the world. Maybe they will fix that big Exxon refinery here in Linden. What good will it do if we can't get any oil from the mid-east? <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

Deano -

The NERC report got holes blown in it (by Bonnie Camp and others) because of questionable methodology and because the news reports about it were so completely off-base. No one has ever said that there can't/won't be good news, and when it really comes out, it will be acknowledged.

Good news is expected, f' Pete's sake! Think about it: giving the project manager "on-time completion" reports is simply expected - it's a given! You're supposed to be getting things done on-time and on-budget - that's what a good estimate and schedule is all about. Most of us on this forum are so concerned precisely because we're seeing far too many reports of "we're working really hard" and missed deadlines and nowhere near enough verifiable status of "on-time" and "on-budget". Lots of warm fuzzy reports, inadequate factual backup for this good news, and actual missed milestones and bad deliverables, all these in my experience are "Red Flags" and will get a project manager beat up pretty good in a major project review. We're also still seeing news items which dismiss Y2K as any kind of problem and which actually discourage preparation, which in my view borders on criminal.

Enough for now. When you see BB, pass along that I spoke to a community preparedness meeting last week and I used her opening: "It's NN days until 01-01-2000... and I smell smoke." The audience loved it.

BTW, when's that MBA system test? Verified success on that (as opposed to that "canned demo" test that was done months ago) will indeed be good news.

-- Mac (, February 17, 1999.

Hey Mac! That's her favorite line. I'll be sure to tell her. The MBA Industry Wide test started last week (2/10, 2/11 were the 1st cycle) and everything is going fine. No problems at all. Security balance reporting was the first phase on the east coast (they're doing it by geographic region in phases) and it went error-free. It runs through June so there's quite a bit more testing to do.


-- Deano (, February 17, 1999.

So-called good news needs to be studied and verified.

We've already seen mis-information, spin and outright lies being spouted about succesful remediation efforts.

Diane - - you go girl!

As President Reagan said: "Trust, but verify".

This is why (and correctly so) why "good news" is ripped to shreds by intelligent folks here in-the-know and by those who can spot spin.

Got logic?

-- INVAR (, February 17, 1999.

"...I don't need to link facts and URL's to back myself up on that one. It's just plain and simple statistical logic...There is no use trying to shed light on something if everyone is opposed to it..."

Does this person have any idea whatsoever how dangerous this type of logic is? Does this person realize many of us are trying to shed light on the fact that the world is in a precarious position, yet most people are "opposed to it?"

I doubt it...

-- pshannon (, February 17, 1999.

OK AES, nice chatting with ya. I don't know about some of these other guys, but I'm looking for any and all comments, yours included. All I ask is that you consider what could happen. Ask yourself if there is anything wrong with being ready for a possible problem. And I do hope you are correct! Later <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

Deano -

Excellent news!

I suspect that MBA won't ballyhoo this until June, of course, just in case. Very glad to hear that testing (yes, actual testing!) is taking place. They started on time, they reportedly have a good plan, and they're working the plan. This is how it's supposed to done and how it must be done for an organization to address the problem. Gotta have a good plan and gotta work it from start to finish, adjusting as necessary. Congrats to all!

Same thing is happening internally on all critical software in my company. They're on-time and on-budget and it's all good. That's the good news. The bad news is that the project didn't address embedded systems at all and that fact wasn't discovered until very late (as in 4Q1998). They won't reportedly finish embeddeds assessment (yes, assessment) until this month (as in February, 1999). Just over 300 calendar days left and they missed a major part of Y2K remediation. *sigh*

Lately, the person in charge of this looks like they're being chased by something with very big teeth...

-- Mac (, February 17, 1999.

PS - and thank you all for your input. <:)=

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

Take a look at this (free) video of Senator Bob Bennet of Utah to understand the "domino effect":

-- Kevin (, February 17, 1999.

AES2010 had said he doesn't think there's much to the "domino effect" problem. Our economy is very much based on "just-in-time" deliveries.

-- Kevin (, February 17, 1999.

"I imagine that with dedication and some creative structuring they could get by on a 50% working scale. Just enough to get by that is."

" I don't need to link facts and URL's ro back myself up on that one. It's just plain and simple statistical logic."

Lessee. 50%? I'll buy that, provisionally.

Roughly, that will generate at least 50% unemployment, considering the cascading effects on peripheral services (groceries, theaters, drycleaners, food service, etc.). Piece of cake. No worries.

Plain and simple statistical logic, as it were.

My father told me it's not sporting to shoot sitting ducks. Guess I'm not perfect yet.

-- Tom Carey (, February 17, 1999.

There is no point arguing against a DGI.

When the time comes, and it's TEOTWAWKI, the DGI's will be after the supplies of the GI's, and they are going to be slapped hard. And they will be the one's who will end up dying off in droves.

If it's not TEOTWAWKI, then us GI's won't have to shop for months for food and the DGI's (there'll be a lot of them, I see) can keep the economy going for the rest of us.

So, look to yourselves and your families, leave the DGI's to either do their own research if they are even remotely thinking about it, or live out what will be a very hard, hungry, cold, life.

I have several DWannaGI's in my life and I am afraid that when they start asking for food and shelter, I will be pointing in the direction of the armed forces, because I won't be able to look after them and myself. It's sad, I know, but there is no sense casting pearls before swine. All one can do is feel sorry for them...

-- laura (, February 17, 1999.

The debate continues... Ranger Smith asks: Do you really have time to...

-- Sysman (, February 17, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ