New WDCY2K Survey : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Earlier this month, I received an e-mail from the head of our local Y2K corporate group (which includes several Fortune 500's), which included the text of a new WDCY2K survey (it's different than last year's survey). I'll print the text of it at the end of my questions, which are: has anyone heard of the results of this survey? Still ongoing? Publishing date?

By the way, as a means of showing the response in my local group, they completed the survey and the results were mostly averaging 2 through 4 in each question, though one person consistently registered a 6. (I didn't participate as I was out of town that week.)

Here's the survey: ______________________________________ PART I: BACKGROUND ----------------------------------------------------- CATEGORY (circle one):

Consultant/analyst/consulting firm Y2K product/tool/services vendor Corporate/business Government (national/state/local) Military Educational Organization/non-profit Legal Press Other (describe):

----------------------------------------------------- TYPE OF Y2K EXPERIENCE (pick the major one; delete the rest)

Hands-on Y2K remediation (assess, repair, test) Y2K remediation management/consulting/planning Y2K advocacy/analysis/policy Oversight of or interaction with the above Government/community activist Interested/concerned bystander Other (describe):

----------------------------------------------------- AMOUNT OF Y2K EXPERIENCE (circle one) 0-6 months 6-12 months 12-18 months 18-24 months 2-4 years 4+ years

===================================================== PART II: IMPACT OF Y2K WITHIN THE UNITED STATES

For each of the areas below, pick the level that comes the closest to your estimation of the impact. Note that each level includes any negative Y2K consequences in the previous levels, that is, level 5 includes the problems in levels 0 through 4 as well.

----------------------------------------------------- IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY (circle one)

0: Irrational exuberance; DJIA breaks 12,000 in 1Q2000 1: Y2K's impact on economy is lost in the noise 2: Some market adjustments (stock indexes down 10%) but recovered within 6 months 3: Stocks down 20% and don't recover until end of 2000; growth flat during 2000 4: Economy contracts 1% over 3 months; unemployment rises to 6% 5: Mild recession (-2.5% over 6 months); unemployment rises to 8% 6: Strong recession (-5% over 18 months); unemployment to 10% 7: Severe recession (-7.5% over 2 years); unemployment to 15% 8: Depression (-21% over 3 years); unemployment to 25% 9: Profound depression (-40% over 5 years); unemployment over 30% 10: Collapse of economic systems (currency, banking, financial mkts)

----------------------------------------------------- IMPACT ON BUSINESS (circle one)

0: A lot of money spent, but improved quality and efficiency 1: Some small to medium enterprises (SMEs) have Y2K problems 2: Business are jolted a bit and scramble to recover; a few supply chain issues 3: Business have "Y2K holidays" during January to get things fixed 4: Bankruptcy/acquisition of at least one Fortune 100 company due to Y2K problems (internal, supply chain, foreign impact, legal) 5: Major disruptions in production and processing of raw materials, as well as manufacturing and the supply chain 6: Most businesses suffer Y2K impact; significant die-off in small to medium high-tech firms as funding, markets dry up. 7: Widespread layoffs, cutbacks; one of the Big 3 auto manufactures is acquired or collapses 8: Major meltdown, with massive consolidations and closings in manufacturing and production industries 9: Radical cutbacks, mergers, or failures of 50% of the Fortune 500 within 3 years; 80% of SMEs fail within 3 years 10: Collapse or radical transformation of most mid- to large-scale enterprises

----------------------------------------------------- IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE/UTILTIES (circle one) 0: Everything works just fine 1: Some failures, but all caught quickly and handled well 2: A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas; air traffic slowdown on Y2K weekend due to consumer caution 3: At least one regional brownout/blackout (2-3 days); most airlines scale back flights for Y2K weekend 4: Transient interruptions in utilities (3-7 days); cutbacks for at least a week in various transportation systems 5: Scattered infrastructure/consumer supply problems lasting up to two weeks 6: Urban infrastructure/supply problems lasting 2-4 weeks, with lesser problems elsewhere; significant transportation disruptions 7: Regional infrastructure/supply problems for 1-2 months; at least one major environmental disaster due to Y2K 8: Infrastructure/supply chain crippled for 3-6 months 9: Collapse of infrastructure/supply chain (6-12 months) 10: Long term (>1 year) shutdown of infrastructure/supply chain

----------------------------------------------------- SOCIAL RESPONSE TO Y2K (circle one) 0: New era of good feelings and optimism 1: No impact 2: Y2K jokes in late night talk shows, with at least one such joke triggering an inadvertent panic/shortage 3: Surge in stockpiling at end of 1999; drop in consumer confidence and spending 4: Isolated social incidents, including discovery (and prevention) of a militia-type terrorist plot timed to coincide with Y2K 5: Some population shifts to states and regions that appear to be better prepared and have milder climates 6: Widescale stockpiling starts earlier in 1999; protests and isolated looting in some cites over Y2K weekend 7: "Peoples Needs" movement organizes community groups to distribute food, other necessities 8: Protests and riots in several large metropolitan areas; at least one foreign terrorist attack on US soil timed for Y2K 9: Widespread social disruption, including internal terrorism from militia groups 10: Social chaos

----------------------------------------------------- GOVERNMENT RESPONSE/IMPACT (circle one) 0: Federal and state governments come out looking superhuman 1: No real problems or impact 2: At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems 3: Y2K issue dominates 2000 elections 4: At least one major gov't agency (HCFA, IRS, FAA) requires that significant contingency plans go into effect 5: HCFA not ready for Y2K; Federal government comes under criticism 6: IRS not ready for Y2K; Congress votes in flat tax, but deficit explodes due to reduced collections, increased social services 7: Widespread gov't problems; both parties blamed; centrist party arises and captures enough seats to deny others a majority 8: Curfews and/or martial law imposed in many large cities 9: Widespread but ineffective martial law; election in 2000 disrupted or cancelled; de facto succession of at least one state 10: Radical downsizing, transformation, splintering, or collapse of the US government

-- Brett (, February 17, 1999



-- Just (wondering, March 20, 1999.

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