Rick,

In another thread you posted the following (still can't do bold and italics so your post will be seperated by *'s).

*I will tell you what I do need - less arrogance and assumption on the part of the electric industry that the "regular folk" are too stupid to understand the operations of the electric industry, and thus, the potential Y2k impact. I copied the following from another post in the forum today:

Hope this helps. I try not to do things behind closed doors. Also a big point of discussion during the conference was how to get the word out to the many requests for Y2k information. It is difficult because the public generally and surely the media do not understand how power works. They just want simple answers when it doesn't work. Did you ever stop and think "the lights are on and the turkey is cooking". Nope, just when the lights are out do you notice. Me too, and I hope to keep it that way. (Underlining in the above is mine; this is from an "industry insider" and posted in the thread "What goes on behind closed doors?".)

The assumption in the above, if that's the prevailing industry attitude, is that John and Jane Q. Public are too stupid (or disinterested) in understanding why Y2k will, at this point, according to the electric industry, have minimal impact.*

First, the assumption that the public is too stupid or disinterested is not at all implied by the original author - that is your inference. The author makes 2 statements, 1. The public doesn't understand how a power system and its protection works. 2. The media has the same lack of understanding.

Now, you can dispute the accuracy of these facts, but I would hesistate characterizing them as arrogance. Shoot, I don't think my upper management understands power system protection and control. That may be part of why I still have a job - they are afraid to cut what they do not understand. Does this mean they are incapable of understanding? Certainly not! Same with the public. They could learn, but it would take much time, and they seem to have more pressing issues on their collective minds. Art posted a fairly technical opinion in SF outage and rolling blackout threads that were largely ignored - a thread killer. Chuck and Tesloid have also addressed in fairly technical terms that do not seem to draw much response. In fact, it has been asserted here that TOO much tech info is a means of "disinformation". An example of the paradox facing those wishing to lead others to truth - NERC = too little detail, DISINFORMATION = too much detail. The only exception seems to be tech assertions of impending failure.

FOR THOSE TRULY INTERESTED: There is a book that addresses the CRITICAL utility embedded device known as a protective relay. It is called "Computer Relaying Systems for Power Systems" by Arun Phadke and James Thorpe. It can be read by anyone, and ignored when getting too technical while still providing a good background on power system protection.

CHapters 1&2 give a history and summary of power system protection. Chapter 3 shows protective algorithms (NOTE NONE USE DATE), Chapters 4-5 give protection principles for Transmision Lines, Transformeres, Motors and Busses, covering most all of the electric utility process.

Chapters 6&7 cover hardware and frequency/clock considerations (no constructed calanders/dates), and also include a section on redundancy and backup philosophies that should illustrate the conservative nature of protection engineers.

I hope this helps. Maybe someone will try this book and give a synopsis. I can't, too "drilled down" to know where the line of credibility is that must exist somewhere between "misleadingly vague" and "dis-informatively detailed".

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Answers

Okay, that's it for me! I am TOO ignorant to understand all the systems that make electricity work. But I do understand plain English words like: There are absolutely no embedded systems that have not been checked. We found every problem and we can guarantee you that there will be no outages in your area in the winter of 2000 related to 2000. We have found and fixed all y2k related problems in our utility system and we have checked with all our vendors; coal, petroleum, nuclear, etc. and they have found all of their problems. The railroad have found all of their problems and we can guarantee that coal will be delivered at LCRA in 2000. There will be no disruptions. The telecommunications systems have found and fixed all of their embedded systems and there will be NO surprises there.

Those words I can understand.

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Linda,

No one can ever prove to you that something will not happen. It is quite impossible to prove a negative, and if I can't prove it to myself, I would never promise you. I can tell you that I identified over 1000 devices, and about 100 of these are used in a way that they would cause an outage if they failed. I have tested about 75% so far, and found not a single significant problem. I have been to EPRI and not heard of anyone else in my area of specialty report anything different. I have knowledge of only my area. I cannot predict others area or outside dependencies. Things look good in my area, and my friends in generation say similar, but they have totally replaced (updated) an important system. Diligent utilities will find such systems and fix and replace. Don't know the impact if this system had been ignored.

Didn't help you did it?

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Diligent utilities are to be commended.

Let's hope all utilities are diligent.

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Good response, art. My point is, no one can make absolute statements about y2k, no one. There are just too many variables. So, I don't think it's particularly helpful to rant at either the optimists or the pessimists. I think it's important that they each debate with all the information at their disposal. That gives us, "the ignorant" a better opportunity to make out decisions. I am still expecting more information before I am sure which side I will come down on; however, I realize there will never be the "ultimate" statement of fact as to what will happen. But I want to hear it all, the good, the bad, and the ugly. Why not hear both sides and allow both sides to speak? Seems there is fear on both sides.

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Linda,

Yes, I did speak in absolutes. None of the types of devices that I tested will fail. Right now that is 75% of the devices from the outside of the gen station to the customer pole. I absolutely will finish the other 25% months ahead of the NERC deadline.

My peers at other utilities have tested most types of the 25% I have not gotten to. After reviewing their procedures and results via EPRI, I state absoloutely that the devices they have tested will not fail on their system or mine.

Hope this helps.

And yes, I have guaranteed this to my immediate manager. I will be held accountable.

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Is is really arrogance? If it looks like a duck, if if walks like a duck, and if it talks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Yes, I'd say it really is arrogance.

The utility folks appear to be arrogant in my humble opinion. I have over ten years as a nuclear outage planner. I've seen nukes go down on a planned 2 month outage and not be back on line nine months later. I have over 35 years of project management experience and I can tell you based on my experience in planning and scheduling that I can't recall one project ever meeting the original schedule date.

I suggest we be a little less arrogant and a litlle more humble.....maybe we can then learn some things from each other.

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Bill,

Sorry about the track record. My utility sets records for outage times, and built a major non-nuke plant ahead of schedule and under budget. But humility prevents me from...

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

Cl, too bad your utility isn'nt representative of the electric utility industry.

-- Anonymous, February 16, 1999

art,

I think I'm still not making my point clear. The "fact" that you are absolutely sure about your work has nothing to do with the "fact" that you can't be absolutely sure about telecoms and railroads, and coal plants, and the stock market, or the economy. Failure in any of these areas could result in disaster for many of us or all of us.

My point is, with y2k, we should not be so concerned about who the pessimists are and who the optimists are. This is not an election! It is a critical problem. And not even you, art, have all the answers. So we need to hear each side in order to try and make rational decisions.

I'm not an optimist or a pessimist; (I hate labels, they are used as a vehical for anger and a roadblock to productivity.) I'm just a person who is seeking the best way to deal with a situation.

-- Anonymous, February 17, 1999

I don't feel arrogant but I am the one being qouted.

I am an expert in how the power system operates. I am good at my job in it (Arrogance).

I know little about how my car's fuel injection works (Humbleness). We all have our areas of expertise.

I spent 10 of the last 11 years training people from total non-techies to system operators about how the system works. That experience and others with the media showed me that " the general public and surely the media" don't understand it. They can learn but for the most part expect the experts to keep it from effecting their lives. That doesn't mean I am not totally willing to try the best I can to explain things to people that want to know. Otherwise, why would I have spent so much time in training?

-- Anonymous, February 17, 1999

Art:

I can understand if the gen station to the customer pole is basically O.K. It doesn't sound to me like there is much to be concerned about in this area. Is there anything in this area that would even have an embedded system? Has anything else been checked other than gen station to customer pole?

-- Anonymous, February 18, 1999