The February Results are in....What the Experts Think : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

What the experts think

-- Linda A. (, February 15, 1999


I could not get your link to work.

It said file not found.

Let me know!



-- PMM (, February 15, 1999.

Sorry it did not work. Try this:

Maybe this will work

-- Linda A. (, February 15, 1999.


were you trying for

the experts ranking page??

-- Andy (, February 15, 1999.

What The Experts Think (February 1999):

-- Kevin (, February 15, 1999.

I'm pissed off now, Russ Kelly didn't ask me my view :)

It would be off the scale.

-- Andy (, February 15, 1999.

Pretty grim. The average among these experts is 7.16 (Nicholas Zvegintzov rates a consistent 1.0 - he's the only one below 5.0 Gary North is a consistent 10, and the only 10. Removing these two from the survey leaves the average at 7.33)

According to WDCY2K scenarios, a 7 would indicate the following: (this was snipped from Bruce Websters book, "The Y2K Survival Guide)

The US escapes a depression - barely.

The global infrastructure would be seriously impacted, intensifying and prolonging the global economic crisis, and triggering political crises in many countries, including the US.

Six to twelve months for recovery (not including full economic recovery)

Very strong recession, -5 percent over two years, unemployment up to 15 percent.

Widescale layoffs, cutbacks. One of the Big 3 auto makers could collapse and/or be aquired.

Regional infrastructure/supply problems for one to two months. Significant problems with internal transportation. At least one major environmental disater due to Y2K.

"Peoples Needs" movement organizes groups to distribute food, other necessities.

Significant problems in government delivery of social services. Both parties blamed; centrist third party arises and wins enough seats in Congress to deny either party a clear majority. (I personally don't see how that would be possible; there wouldn't be much time to organize - ps)

Rise of neo-Luddite movement on campuses. Public schools take "summer vacation" during Jan.-March 2000 period.

Health care centers implement informal triage in admittance policy. Medical research centers close or are set back years due to power, equipment malfunctions.

Dwellings in affected areas adapt to intermittent feeds and deliveries.

Fresh fruits and vegetables, meats scarce and expensive until spring due to problems in foreign countries, transprotation. State or city- mandated rationing of key items, causing long lines at stores.

Vandalism of technology firms in Y2K protests.

Debt/account negotiation becomes a way of life.

Federal government asks states to help implement key social programs.

Tracking clues -

First half 1999 - US supply chain becomes clogged with stockpiling requests by businesses, consumers, leading to backorders and shortages throughout 1999. (we're seeing this already? ps)

Second half 1999 - Attempts for national and global Y2K mobilization fall apart in acrimony.

Commentary - This scenario presumes that Y2K problems are much worse than currently believed and that we will do a much poorer job of fixing them in time, here and abroad. (not according to these experts. ps)

Probability - 5 percent (outcome better than this: 90 percent)

Wild Card - Christian millennialists trigger a new Arab-Israeli war - as well as a Muslim jihad against Christians - by destroying the Al- Agsa Mosque (including the Dome of the Rock) in Jerusalem so that the new Jewish temple can be built.

-- end snip --

So that's where the experts average out. And, it looks like their feelings about it are about the same or getting a little better than in previous surveys...

-- pshannon (, February 15, 1999.

And nobody talks about the oils.

-- dave (, February 15, 1999.

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