Why I'm still a 2.5

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

After lurking about a week I thought I'd try to lower the hysteria level here. In my considered opinion there is way too much speculation and hypothesizing going on this board, and too little reasoning.

What we know to date: 1. Private and public sources have spent billions of dollars, and will spend billions more, just to keep operating vice research and development into new areas. Result? Loss of capital will set back expansion of economy. 2. The so called "JoAnne" effect has been rather mild (at least up to 15 Feb 1999) so far.

What is believable about the next 12 months? Cetainly business slowdowns, some companies (especially small ones) may even fold if key business processes stop.

All this adds up to, in my mind, is that Y2K is a significant drag on the economy, probably leading to a serious recession.

Does anyone have any PROOF to support TEOTW scenarios that are being played out? I havn't found any.

-- straw berry (strawberry9@worldnet.att.net), February 15, 1999


There isn't any hysteria here, Straw, just reasoned planning and preparation based on each individual's assessment of what is to come. If you are a 2.5 and choose to prepare as such, so be it. If I'm a 9.5 and want to act accordingly, amen to that as well. If you're right and I'm wrong, I have a nice tax deduction coming next April after I give a lot of stuff to the Salvation Army. If I'm right and you're wrong, you might be dead. Your choice.

-- Vic (Roadrunner@compliant.com), February 15, 1999.

Pascal's Wager

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 15, 1999.

It's my considered opinion, strawberry, that a week of lurking here is not enough time in which to gain a true grasp of the situation. Every day brings one little bit more information to throw into the mix. It's also important to view many sources and look at what's going on "in between the lines."

There is no PROOF that TEOTWAWKI is likely, neither is there any PROOF that it will be mild. Many of the more ardent reporters here look beyond the basics of what is happening in this country and look to other countries. Remember - we operate in a global economy. This country is basically a service economy; we depend on other nations to supply us with most of the goods we consume. Much of the rest of the world is ALREADY experiencing economic difficulties, and their "1999 problems" will take away resources from Y2K remediation efforts.

As Vic suggests, each individual can only decide for themselves how vulnerable they think they will be in the scenario they think is most likely. There are very few forthright statements from .Gov and .BigBiz about the true scope of things, mostly just PR spin and "calm the herd" platitudes. So, you've got to decide for yourself.

After almost a year of participating here and other places, I've come to the conclusion that our civilization as it is currently configured is about to experience a major upheaval. And I don't think that's being hysterical...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 15, 1999.

1. You are speculating that the billions spent already, and the billions that will be spent will set back expansion of the economy. Result? Bankruptcy? Economic Depression? Hyperinflation? Stock market collapse? 2. JoAnne effect? We're only 2 months into the new year, and I think it is too early to tell. Polls are already being taken asking people if they plan to withdraw money from their bank. The number is staggering, and I personally know people already that have either done it or are taking it out slowly so they don't get turned into the the feds! 3. A "serious recession," in itself is speculation. Everything is speculation at this point, being prepared is being prudent. No one has any proof of how things will pan out. There's no proof that TEOTWAWKI will happen. Much depends on how much truth we get from companies on being Y2K compliant. So far everything I have read on this BB, and many other Y2K sites, there is evidence that we are in for a roller coaster ride. I may not have the proof, but I have a gut feeling that I better be prepared. Would you go on a trip without taking along a spare tire?

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), February 15, 1999.

Strawberry: As to facts, here are some that you might want to consider: 1. Almost no large organization, company, gov't agency, etc. made the famous Dec. 31, 1998 deadline to be y2k compliant and ready for testing.

2. According to a recent Weiss survey, 32% of the 900 banks that responded admitted they missed the deadline. Most banks did not bother to respond, which may mean nothing or it may mean they are behind and do not want to admit it.

3. The rest of the world, with whom we are deeply linked for our prosperity, is woefully behind in their y2k remediation. If they go down, we go down with them.

I can go on but you get the message I presume. Expecting a only a 2.5 y2k situation is not only an extreme viewpoint, it borders on suicidal based on what is known today about y2k.

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), February 15, 1999.

A week lurking here? Or a week studying the problem? I didn't understand that part. Hyteria in this forum? Uhh?!

Try to read M.Hyatts(or was it Cowles?) analysis on spending billions, and spending billions efficiently! And spending billions at the right time(should've been years ago).

PROOF? what only certainty there is, is that January 2000 is 10.5 months away. Proof abounds in the facts that are already available. Maybe some persons don't know the innumerable facts, or don't want to deal with them.

With all due and sincere respect to you, Strawberry, you don't get it. But I admit, if you say you are betting for a 2.5, you are somewhat aware. And I also say,at least, prepare for that.

Try a search of reported problems in Greenspun website; and then we could talk about JoAnn effects. Good Luck, and Happy Surfing.

-- Eli (eli@zephyr.net), February 15, 1999.

Boy this board sure gets action fast! Here are some thoughts in regards to the responses:

Vic - when I read of a young women getting so upset and vomiting, after reading this board, I conclude that this board is bordering on hysteria.

Puddintime - Pascal's wager only has value to two value problem, e.g., eternity in heaven or eternity in hell. Here we have a continuum [1-10] to chose from.

pshannon - I'm not basing by conclusion on just reading a week of this board. I knew about the Y2K problem since I was in grad school in the '80s. And, the reason I'm asking for PROOF of TEOTWAWKI or a near-TEOTWAWKI is because so many people present it as a given.

bardou - gut feelings are nice and sometimes all we have to go on, but to recommend to others to get ready for the end really demands more than a gut feeling.

cody - there is a difference between not being "prosperous" and THE END! I remember growing up having an outhouse and baths in a tub of cold water. I lived!

-- straw berry (strawberry9@worldnet.att.net), February 15, 1999.

Straw, I think you're a GI in disguise. The salient feature of y2k decision making is not so much the existence of a continuum of possibilities as the negligible cost of preparing and the fact that preparation may save your life. I think you're just having fun with this one.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), February 15, 1999.

My point about hysteria is based on the full complement of comment here, Straw, not on a newcomer's reported response to "getting it."

-- Vic (Roadrunner@compliant.com), February 15, 1999.


I'd suggest one other point for consideration. You demonstrated in your comment vis a vis a woman getting nauseous after reading some of the material on this site, that you held the site, rather than the woman, responsible for the woman's reaction. While it is currently politically correct to avoid holding a person responsible for his/her actions, it's that very same attitude of find someone/thing else to blame when something goes wrong, which has led us into this current predicament.

One might wish to consider whether or not expecting people to take individual responsibility for their actions, might not be a good way to begin preparing for whatever y2k brings us.

Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), February 15, 1999.

Straw, I can understand your perception of "hysteria" on this board. I read the puking thing this morning (unfortunately while eating breakfast) and if you've seen Paul Milne's work, it is very "strong" at times.(that's not a criticism, just a perception) However, there is some good info here and the folks for the most part are very reasonable and helpful. For me, it's reassuring to have others to talk to from different backgrounds and experiences. After that, it's always up to me to decide what to do with the info I get. I hope your 2.5 is correct. Good luck.

-- rick (little_engine_th@_could.com), February 15, 1999.

You have offered no reason, no facts, and no justification for your optimism.

I can point to the billions spent - and show you that only a very few companies are close enough to finishing to even have begun testing. My experience in complex utility and computer systems - in trying to test them, to start them, to fix them, and to run them - tells me that the 15% errors found unexpectedly in so-called "good systems" will be multiplied many times as unexpected Y2K problems are found "by failure".

I cannot say what will fail - no one can. I can reliably assure that many hundreds of thousands of unexpected things will fail - completely, and unrepairably. And I can also assure you though that no "civilian" (in police terminology) can do a damn thing about the loss of his or her utilitities - if they have not prepared, all they can do is sit in the dark, freezing and hungry, trying to suck water from an empty faucet. When the Galaxy satellite failed last summer, could you use your pager? 3/4 of the US could not. And there was nothing they could do about it until the program was correctly, alternative satellites programmed, and control re-established.

You blame this site for a women getting sick - then claim we are exaggerating? Doesn't make sense.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), February 15, 1999.

I use my psychic abilities to my advantage, I have been blessed with a gift.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), February 15, 1999.

straw berry,

Since you've only been lurking for a week, here are some items and news articles to aquaint you more with the problem:


Happy searching!

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 15, 1999.


I'm not going to spend a millisecond trying to convince someone who has just called me "hysterical." Many will die; let strawberry be among them if it means spending our time preparing, or helping those who want to be helped (and can refrain from hurling insults).


-- E. Coli (nunayo@beeswax.com), February 15, 1999.

"After lurking about a week I thought I'd try to lower the hysteria level here. In my considered opinion there is way too much speculation and hypothesizing going on this board, and too little reasoning."


I usually ignore this type of post, but right now I'm feeling--Oh gosh--YES!--I am OVERWHELMED with "Hysteria"! I must respond.

With all due respect, PLEEASE! If Y2k is only a 2.5 on your scale, "just ignore it--it will go away eventually."


HYPOTHESIS: Something assumed for the purpose of argument.

REASONING: Examining or discussing by arguments; TO PERSUADE BY REASONING. DISCUSSING.

******************** --New Webster's Dictionary and Thesaurus, 1988.

I believe,Straw, you've managed to contradict yourself.

Arlin is absolutely correct in stating that different people react differently to different situations--this particular person's reaction doesn't make members of the board "hysterical"--or guilty of inciting hysteria.

This forum is an excellent source of INFORMATION--people who post here DOCUMENT their posts whenever possible. If you had read the archived threads, you would know that. Where is the proof in your post?

-- Scarlett (ohara@tara.net), February 15, 1999.

"Does anyone have any PROOF to support TEOTW scenarios that are being played out? I havn't found any. "

You can't prove God exists either... For me the closest we have to "proof" is the inter-dependence of things.

Forget about businesses, forget about the governnment, & just look at the "iron triangle" - banks, utilities, telecommunications. If those three are OK, then things will be merely miserable. If those things fail... We will be in very deep sh*t. W/o banks, products can't move. W/o electricity, we have no banks, & no computers, compliant or otherwise. W/o phones... Beginning to see it yet? To steal someone's quote, "Connect the dots."

Once you see it clearly you may find yourself puking into your own kitchen sink.

-- there (goes@my.lunch), February 15, 1999.


Back in September of 97 I called in an extensive order for survival type products from a company because of my fear of world wide economic breakdown. I had never made purchases of this type ever. I had never even heard of Y2K at the time. I was concerned with the possibility of the world moving into a great depression that would dwarf the 30's.

As I was talking to the order taker he asked me if these purchases were for Y2K. I thought he was humoring me and I told him no. I decided to check it out on the net to see what this Y2K thing was all about. It took me about a month of study on the subject to realize that yes this Y2K thing could be a big deal. Right now after 16 months of relentless investigation I beleive the chances of breakdown because of Y2K is about a 6. But, I beleive the chances of a Depression never seen before in history in magnatude, to be a 10+.

Now couple that with Y2K and I see disaster that will create a world that I can not even imagine for possible a decade. But, I will get through it. And we as a people will be better off and hopefully cleansed of the greed and corruption that is a daily part of our lives.

May Gods Will Be Done


-- flierdude (mkessler0101@sprynet.com), February 15, 1999.

Straw Berry, Straw Man,

whatever your name is... it is not our job to offer you proof, go out and find your own proof you lazy B*****d :)

It's all around you mate - open your eyes. Or perhaps, more likely, you don't wannasee.

Good luck.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 15, 1999.

Flierdude, I agree totally that there is a great chance of a depression, which in itself spurs me to consider action. It doesn't have to be TEOTWAWKI to be TEOMJAIKI (the end of my job as I know it). At least if I lose my job I'll have a little extra to live on.

-- Kay P. (Y2Kay@usa.net), February 15, 1999.

A trillion dollars and the code will still be broken.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), February 15, 1999.

As far as Strawberry's statement about the young lady feeling nauseous and saying she was made hysterical by this site. I guess he has about zilch first aid training. I suggest he get some training before next January.

Nausea is one of the signs of SHOCK. And if there's anyone who can't say that when they Got It, that they didn't feel sick to their stomachs at the shock of realizing what's coming, then they're either lying or they don't have a shred of humanity. A young woman who's realized she's in deep Y2K doo-doo feeling nauseous is hysteria? Hell, it's natural and she probably glad it's happening in February 1999 and not in December 1999.


-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), February 15, 1999.


It's true that this forum has from time to time found itself a soapbox for glazed-eyes conspiracy buffs ranting about the evil government, the evil banking system, the evil media, and the Illuminati. Somehow these people never seem to notice that not only are they permitted to post these things, but they are affluent enough to have access to the means to do so!

Nonetheless, there are entirely too many computer bugs out there coming due soon, and we cannot possibly head them all off at the pass. Every current indication is that our current battle to do so is a little too little, a little too late. We're making great strides, but there will be problems. I doubt terrible things will happen to everyone, but they will surely happen to some, and you could be among them. As a minimally sensible precaution, you should be ready to be out of work for a year or two. Even in normal circumstances, this is prudent.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), February 15, 1999.

personally I'd like to nominate Kay P. for the astute GI statement of the month. Specificly:

"It doesn't have to be TEOTWAWKI to be TEOMJAIKI (the end of my job as I know it). "

I wonder if one couldn't structure a whole y2k awareness package around that concept.


-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), February 15, 1999.

So Strawberry, you lurk for a week and come up with the conclusion that it's going to be a 2.5

I do intensive research for a year, daily on the internet and I come up with an 8+.

Does that mean that you'll reach 10+ in just a few more weeks lurking? Depends on how much brain you have and how well you do your homework.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), February 16, 1999.

Strawberry--If you need a little "awakening". try the Houston Chronicle front page 2/14/99 and focus on the article regarding the petrochemical industry. I would provide the site but you can find it (you have to register -free-). If the management of the chemical petroplexes in Houston are scared, just try to imagine what life would be like for you and yours if you're limited to - oh, say about 5 gallons of gas a week or maybe one loaf of bread and 5 lb of rice cause the trucks aren't running. Oh, well I'll take pity. It's HoustonChronicle.com is the way I found it (sorry, webtv won't hotlink) register and then research under y2k. Lobo

-- Lobo (hiding@woods.com), February 16, 1999.

Try reading this site. It pays to know with whom you are dealing. http://www.mcs.net/~aaron/tmc.htm

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), February 16, 1999.

Good link Tia but have you considered that the author is wrong? I have. I hope to God it is just a 2.5, I have places to go, people to see, things to do as we all have. Logic dictates that it will be far worse than a 2.5. Mr. Lynch can pontificate all he likes but if/when I'm cold and hungry next January Mr. Lynch will not come to my rescue. Futhermore, he will not come to the rescue of those members of my family that will also need help. It's up to the individual now, Government has simply abrogated all responsibility. All they are now focussing on is damage limitation... Pay attention - stay alive

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), February 16, 1999.

Your response exemplifies a couple of the points in the article, appeal to the suffering and everyone out for himself.

Two beers, one arrest, the smallest cell.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), February 16, 1999.

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